Chilly Vermont Morning But Warmer Times Ahead. Storm Questions Remain

Just one of many projections for a potential large
East Coast storm this coming Monday. Expect huge
changes one way or another for the storm forecast.
Could give us heavy rain, could give us nothing at all.

 We pretty much had our coldest morning so far of the early winter this morning here in Vermont

But that's not exactly saying much.   

It was 17 degrees in Burlington, a mere five degrees colder than average for the date. For those keeping track, we missed tying the record low for the date by a full 28 degrees. Yeah, not even close.  

Over in Saranac Lake, New York, that perennial cold spot reached a goose egg 0 degrees. Again, no big deal for them.

I'm only mentioning this because it just seems that this fall and early winter, nights in particular have mostly been on the warm side. 

There have already been five days this month in Burlington that never got below freezing. And we might have a few more coming up.

It's amazing that the summit of Mount Mansfield has managed to pile up 39 inches of snow. At least for now. Pretty impressive considering they've had some thawing at the summit occasionally this month. 

Another surge of warm air is heading our way, too. After a day that will stay at or below freezing, readings should surge into the 40s tomorrow. It'll be just a wee bit cooler Saturday but still warmer than average, before we get back into the 40s Sunday.

If this long range forecast is accurate, pretty much 
the entire nation, including here in Vermont, will
have a warmer than normal Christmas week.

There's still some huge question marks about that weird storm expected to develop near Florida over the weekend, then head north.

The computer model trends bring it further west and north than previous runs, which would put Vermont in the precipitation zone Monday. 

But that might not hold. This far out, computer models tend do something that I call windshield wipering. In other words they go back and forth day to day.

"It's going to score a direct hit on us!. No, wait a minute, out to sea.  Or a close shave. Further west again! No, east! West! East!" You can picture the computer models arguing like that.  

I think we should just relax until Saturday. By then, we should have a better idea on how things play out. For now, just put in the back of your mind we might have some rain or snow Sunday night and Monday. Kind of a weekly thing around here lately. 

Despite some likely chilly air behind that Monday storm, the overall pattern favors warmer than normal temperatures for us and almost the entire rest of the Lower 48 through Christmas.