Vermont Flood Cleanup To Be Slowed By Heat, Humidity

Be cautious driving around Vermont after our flood.
Workers are scrambling to repair roads, but you
will still encounter problems with the edges
of many roadways that are still open. Don't get
too close to the sides, they might be undermined. 

 The water has receded, or is receding everywhere in Vermont this morning as the last of the flood crests head into Lake Champlain or the Connecticut River, 

As a result, the upper Connecticut River went into minor flood stage, but isn't expected to cause many problems. Lake Champlain is rising a little, but it's well below flood stage and will stay far too low to cause any problems along the shore.

What's left is mourning the losses and picking up the pieces. There are two confirmed deaths. As Vermont Public reports, Dylan Kempton, 33, of Peacham was riding an all-terrain vehicle. 

He was apparently trying to get home when a culvert breached, causing a gush of water that swept him away Wednesday night. 

 The second death was in Lyndonville Thursday morning when Lyndonville Police said John Rice, 73, drove his vehicle into a flooded street and ignored bystanders' warnings to turn around.  The truck he was in was swept away and into a hayfield that was under 10 feet of fast-flowing water. His body was recovered later Thursday when floodwater receded, according to the Associated Press.

ADDITIONAL CASUALTIES?

The worry now is more injuries or deaths. Vermont Public Safety Commissioner Jennifer Morrison correctly noted during a Thursday press briefing that many disaster deaths occur after the actual event. 

The problem for Vermont is hot, humid weather that remained in place through the flood and will only intensify over the next few days.  

It's easy to overheat while doing the hard physical work of clearing debris, shoveling muck and moving destroyed items to the curb and trash bins. 

Also, it's a Vermont tradition to head to the swimming holes in our rivers during hot weather. Normally, they're clear and calm and for the most part safe. 

Not now. Morrison warned everyone to stay out of rivers.  Although the water has receded, currents will remain strong and fast in the coming days. The river bottoms have changed. Where there was once deep water may be spots filled with debris that you can get snagged on, or injured if you dive in. The rivers are now full of contaminants, too. 

There are a variety of resources to reach out to seek help, stay informed of road closures and to obtain other information. I won't go through them all here. But VTDigger has a comprehensive article on where to turn for resources, so that's a great place to start. 

WEATHER OUTLOOK

Much of the East Coast from South Carolina to Massachusetts is under a flood watch this morning, which would seem ominous for us here in Vermont. 

However, heavy rain should pretty much stay away from the Green Mountain State over the next couple days. 

A weather front is hung up along the Eastern Seaboard. A strong Bermuda High is sending a plume of deep moisture to interact with the front and cause torrential downpours. So you will see news of continued flooding today and tomorrow in many eastern states.  

Practically every driveway I saw as I made my way
through Richmond, Vermont Thursday was damage.
Some just had minor damage, others were impassable.

A little bit of the heavy rain will probably creep into far southern Vermont. But that part of the state didn't get much rain at all Wednesday and Thursday.  If there is any flooding in Bennington and Windham County will be just in a couple pinpoint locations. Nothing widespread.

We will have to watch this zone of torrential rains to our south and east for signs it could unexpectedly shift further north and west our way, but so far, I'm seeing no signs it would do so. 

In Vermont's flood zone, there is a chance of a few thunderstorms today and tomorrow. They'll be widely scattered, but given the humidity that's lingering, some will be capable of torrential downpours. 

Normally this wouldn't be a problem, but given how unstable rivers and streams are now, there is a low but not zero chance of renewed flash flood problems in one or two spots. For sure, though, nothing widespread.

The heat will build over the next few days, with temperatures Sunday through Tuesday topping out in the 80s to around 90. That humidity will linger, which is why we have those warnings not to over-exert yourself. 

More thunderstorms seem like they'll want to develop by Monday and especially Tuesday, so we'll need to watch those for heavy rainers. It's too soon to tell whether they'll cause any trouble or not. 

What we really need right now is a spell of cooler, drier weather. There is hope that could arrive toward midweek. For the first time in what will have been about two weeks, signs point to a potential cold front that actually means business to come on through. 

If that comes to pass, we'll see at least a couple days of seasonable daytime temperatures, comfortably cool nights and dry air.  There could always be something to screw up that forecast, but at least it's something to hope for.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change did not "cause" our latest flood disaster, but like the ones we had last July and December, climate change probably influenced it for the worse.

Former Hurricane Beryl brought tons of tropical moisture to New England to add to the high humidity that was already here. So there was plenty of water in the air to set off downpours. All they needed was a trigger or triggers.

The forecasts leading up to the event were great. They indicated a warm front would very nearly stall over north central Vermont, providing a focus for lift and convergence in the atmosphere. That would cause lots of rising air, creating the conditions for all that moisture to condense into torrential rains and thunderstorms. 

That's exactly what happened. 

The most favorable spot for thunderstorms was right along that warm front. Starting about mid-afternoon Wednesday, those storms formed in New York, and paraded, one after another, into Addison County, then through the middle of Vermont and on up into the Northeast Kingdom. This continued well into the night, unleashing those downpours that ultimately led to three to as much as seven inches of rain in a matter of hours. 

The disaster was on. 

Some of those storms had a fair amount of spin to them, prompting tornado warnings in New York just to the west of Vermont, and in northern New Hampshire.  Some of the storms in Vermont were severe, and brought down a few trees, especially in Addison County.

There were some suspicious clouds in Bridport, New Haven and Monkton that seemed to rotate and boil as if a twister wanted to perhaps touch down, but so far there have been no reports of a Vermont tornado.

But the flooding is the main show anyway. 

Climate change fits in because it generally makes the atmosphere warmer. That makes it have a greater capacity to hold moisture. So a storm like the one we had Wednesday night was probably able to produce more torrential downpours than a similar system would have decades ago. 

The oppressive heat and humidity we experienced in the days leading up to the disaster, and the days that will follow could well have a climate connection as well. It's true that we've always had heat waves. But recent summers have been warmer and featured fewer breaks from the humidity that we used to see a generation or two ago.

This summer is certainly following that climate change warm pattern.  

Could Lingering Flood Echoes From Monday's Storm Spell Trouble Down The Road?

Severe, record breaking flooding along Lake Champlain
in May, 2011,  The lake is high now, but not quite flooding.
However, if heavy precipitation continues through the 
winter and spring, some shoreline flooding is possible
come next April and May 

 None of Vermont's rivers as far as I can tell are above flood stage anymore late this Thursday afternoon.

Yay! 

But the floods from early in the week are still causing lingering issues. Elsewhere in New England, and right here in Vermont. 

Down in Connecticut, the Connecticut River crested at moderate flood stage south of Hartford this morning. (It crested at Hartford yesterday afternoon at the highest level since Hurricane Irene in 2011).

The flooding had closed several roads and parks along the Connecticut River, but most homes and businesses are high enough to avoid damage.

In Maine, the Androscoggin River crested at major flood state Tuesday and Wednesday and was considered a 100 year flood. That means there's a one in 100 chance in a given year the flooding would get that bad. 

The flooding in Maine is likely the second worst in the state's history. 

Back here in Vermont, the only trouble spot remaining is Lake Champlain.  The lake level today had risen to 99.05 feet above sea level. It rose sharply as flooded rivers flowed in the lake Tuesday and Wednesday but seemed to be leveling off today. 

The lake level today is just under six inches below minor flood stage. It's also just a little under the record highs for this time of year, set in 1983.

With stiff north winds today, the lake was high enough to splash over onto roads near the shore, including the Route 2 Causeway connecting Colchester and South Hero.  That splash over froze onto the roadway, making conditions treacherous. There were probably other near-shore roads that suffered the same problem in today's chill.

Runoff from the flooding earlier this week made Lake
Champlain rise to just under six inches below minor
flood stage.  It appears to be leveling off now, 

There was also a minor version of something called a seiche on Lake Champlain today.  Steady north winds pretty much tilted the lake, making it a wee bit shallower on the north end and a little higher on the south end. On the far southern end of the lake, the minor flood stage of 99.5 feet might have been briefly reached today. 

The lake probably sloshed back northward as the sun set and the winds down down late this afternoon, and the lake level was very likely leveling off to something near horizontal.  

The current  high lake levels do raise questions as to what will happen when Lake Champlain reaches its typical yearly peak crest in the spring. 

The lake will surely begin to recede in the coming days, and typically slowly goes down or during January and February. Which means there's no immediate threat of any serious flooding.

Where trouble can arise is if the lake stays higher than normal through the winter. If deep snow eventually piles up in the mountains, and then we have a wet spring, the combination of snow melt and rain runoff could make Lake Champlain flood. Especially if it rises from a higher starting point in March or April than it usually does.

There's no real way to predict whether or not Lake Champlain will cause trouble in the spring. Ground water is certainly above normal as we head into the heart of winter, which could help encourage eventual flooding. However, mountain snow pack is far below normal at the moment. 

That said, nobody has any idea how much precipitation we'll get in the winter and spring. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington usually starts a bi-weekly spring flood outlook in January and continues it into the early spring to give people an idea of whether there is much of a risk of another inundation. 

Teen In Now-Famous Tornado Pickup Truck Video Is Fine, And Cool As A Cucumber

The driver of the red pickup truck in that viral tornado video
this week is Riley Leon, 16. As you can see in this 
smiley photo from KHOU, he's fine. 

UPDATE:

The only truly bad news in the story below, which I posted yesterday, was that Riley Leon's beloved truck was written off by the insurance company as a total loss.

Obviously it was still drivable, but the dents scratches and broken glass from the tornado left it in ruins.

The truck had been a family workhorse for at least a decade.  

The bad news is now a thing of the past, too. As Jalopnik reports:

"Chevrolet partnered with local dealer Bruce Lowrie Chevrolet in Fort Worth, Texas. He's getting a brand new 2022 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 LT All Star Edition - a truck that regularly goes for over $40,000 a pop. Chevy is also donating an additional $50,000 to aid the American Red Cross disaster relief efforts in Texas."

Let's just hope Riley Leon doesn't take up storm chasing with his new truck. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 

 There's been a viral video by Brian Emfinger circulating this week of that red pickup truck getting caught in a tornado along a highway in Elgin, Texas.  

As I noted the other day, the video show the tornado flipping the truck on its side, spinning it a couple times while still on its side, then violently plopping it down on its wheels. 

Meanwhile, power lights arc and explode all around. The driver inside the truck then seems to casually drive away from the swirling metal roof sheets, debris and dirt.

Local media in Texas inevitably tracked down the driver. He is Riley Leon, age 16. Among the television stations scoring an interview with Leon was Fox 7 in Austin. 

The kid says he's fine, both physically and emotionally. He's got a few minor scrapes and cuts on his left arm, and he's philosophical about what happened. "Life keeps going on and we cannot let ourselves get down because of a single problem," Leon said. 

Leon said knew dangerous weather was in the forecast Monday, but he didn't want to miss a job interview at Whataburger. However, he said he never expected the tornado to be at the same moment as me and at the same place.  

Still image of the viral video of the red pickup truck
caught in the Texas tornado, highlighted here so you can
see it better. The 16 year old boy who was driving the
truck is fine. 

He had missed a U-turn, but he found the next one and began using that when the tornado hit.  He told Fox 7 the experience was like this: 

"I was driving normally, seatbelt on, hands of my driving steering wheel......and I was going to take the U-turn. I felt my truck lift up and it took me to a ditch, and put me on my side and spin me out and that's where spinning into the road and it got on its four wheels and the video shows that I kept driving, but actually I just drove off. I drove out of the road to not cause more accidents"

Two things here that are cool:  First, he was wearing a seat belt, which I'm sure prevented Leon from being seriously injured or even thrown from the truck. Second, I'm impressed that the logic for him driving away is he didn't want anybody to collide with him, causing a bigger problem.  

He stopped down the road and a brown van pulled up, and the van's occupants asked  Leon if he was OK. At this point, he was undecided as to whether to just drive home or get help. He'd lost his phone in the chaos, so the people in the brown van let Leon use their phone to call his parents. 

Leon said he learned his lesson about driving when the weather is forecast to become dangerous. "The number one rule, the number one thing I learned was if there's going to be bad weather, stay home. No matter, no matter how important the thing is to you, stay  home. Your life, your life matters more than other stuff."

The teenager say he is bummed the truck seems to be destroyed, since it had been in the family for years. His father had recently sold it to him. On the bright side, Emfinger's video will be excellent proof to provide to his insurance carrier. 

Remarkably, the 11th grader went back to school on Wednesday. Everybody at school is calling him "Tornado Boy."  Oh, and he got the job at Whataburger. He starts Monday.  

Here's news video with Leon from television station KVUE with additional details. It also includes the Brian Emginger clip of the truck and the tornado. If you don't see the video displayed on your device, click on this hyperlink:

When Weather Disaster Strikes, Picking Up The Pieces Takes Forever, Unfortunately

Damage from a huge hailstorm in Calgary, Canada
lingers four months after the storm. It shows the slow
pace of recovery typical of big disasters.
Photo by Helen Pike/CBC 

 We see it over and over again.  

A big, devastating storm strikes, and the media swoop in and cover the destruction, the heartbreak and loss, and then move on. 

It makes it easy to forget that the aftermath, the effort to pick up the pieces, often takes years.  You wonder if it will ever get done. Sometimes it doesn't. 

One example is a hail storm that struck Calgary, Alberta, Canada four months ago. The storm caused $1.5 billion in damage and severely damaged thousands of homes. A thick barrage of tennis ball sized hail wrecked so many walls, windows and roofs. 

Now, with winter setting in, most of the damage is still not repaired. 

It takes time for insurance adjusters to settle claims.  Then, thousands of people all at once compete to hire a limited number of contractors to fix the damage. Good luck getting anything done within a reasonable amount of time. 

Now winter is settling into Calgary.  This being Canada, it can get awfully cold up there. It often gets below zero there each winter, and the coldest it's ever been in Calgary is 46 below.

And now you have a lot of houses with damaged windows, roofs, and siding. Which allows cold and moisture to enter these houses, causing added damage. 

Making matters worse, the Alberta provincial government has provided disaster relief for flooding from the storm, but not hail damage, according to the CBC.  Just an example of bureaucracy not helping matters. 

The Calgary hail storm, bad as it was, didn't come close to the biggest calamity a town or city could endure. 

There's plenty of for instances.  The town of Paradise, California was practically wiped off the map by a deadly wildfire in 2018.  The town isn't close to being rebuilt.  Lots of people in the area have PSTD, made worse by nearby wildfires this year that choked the air in Paradise with smoke and briefly threatened to cause new destruction in town. 

A month before Paradise was literally lost, the town of Mexico Beach, Florida was flattened by Category 5 Hurricane Michael.  This is another town that hasn't recovered and won't anytime soon.  

Mexico Beach still has no gas stations, and the bank just re-opened early this month.  The town has so far only gotten half the money it needs to get its infrastructure back and running, as television station WFSU reports. A few houses have been rebuilt, but Mexico Beach is still largely empty lots. 

Here in Vermont, it really took at least five years to pretty much fully get the Green Mountain State back up to snuff after the extreme floods of Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. 

The point of this post is to show that disasters are coming at a dizzying pace.  They dominate the news cycle for a day, a week, sometimes a month. Then we all forget, because the next catastrophe has hit. Meanwhile, the people in the earlier disaster zones are pretty much left to solve it on their own. 

I don't have a good solution here.  However, if the scientists are right, the pace of big weather disasters will continue to accelerate as the planet warms.  Which means more and more of us will find ourselves picking up the pieces and not sure if we have a decent future. 

Here's the CBC news piece that inspired today's post: