Rain Changing To Snow Early Today In Vermont, Winter Is Back

Traffic cam of Interstate 89 in Brookfield, which is close to 
the highest elevation on the Interstate has already 
picked up a few inches of snow, making for
hazardous travel. Rain was changing to snow
in lower elevations as of 7:30, so this
mornings commute is a little iffy.

 As of 7:15 a.m., road conditions were deteriorating in northern Vermont as rain was changing to snow and temperatures were falling to and then below the freezing point. 

Rain flipped to snow shortly before 7 a.m. here in St. Albans. Places in central Vermont have already gone to snow, too. The southern and central Champlain Valley and most of southern parts of the state were still raining. 

Nobody in Vermont will get much snow out go this. Northern New York was the big winner with this. 

For Vermont, whatever snow we get is a timing problem. The changeover to snow for many of us is hitting when it's time to drive to work or school. 

As temperatures dip below freezing as the snow continues to fly, you know that means road conditions won't be great everywhere. It was still raining around Burlington as of 7 a.m., but we'll see how long tha lasts,   

It's the usual admonition to drive slowly, and leave plenty of room between you and the car in front of you.

Accidents are already happening. Police and fire trucks just blasted past my house in St. Albans as of 7:15 a.m. Apparently, there's a rollover crash just up the hill from my house. 

Where it's snowing, it will continue lightly well into today. I don't have any official snow reports yet, but judging from traffic cameras, it looks like areas well away from Lake Champlain in Vermont had picked up a dusting to an inch in low elevations in northern Vermont and maybe two or as much as three inches higher up.  

Rainy areas will be snowy soon. Additional snowfall looks like it might amount to  about one to 2,5 inches in the northwestern quarter of Vermont and less than an inch in most other places.

The Green Mountains should get a two to four inch dusting to partly make up for yesterday's thawing. 

Light snow should continue in parts of northern Vermont through the afternoon. The southern Connecticut River Valley will manage just flurries, if that.

COLDER PATTERN ARRIVES

The thaw is officially OVER. 

Six of the past seven days in Burlington got to at least 40 degrees. It's going to be quite awhile before it's 40 again. 

Later this morning and this afternoon, the real cold air will catch up to us. Temperatures were only slowly falling through the low and mid 30s in Vermont right before dawn. Over in New York, in the western Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley, it was already getting into the teens as of 7 a.m.

That air will soon be in Vermont to solidify the ice on the sidewalks and untreated roads. By the time you go to bed, temperatures should be in the teens for most of us, and down in the single number stop near 10 by dawn tomorrow. 

That frigid weather pattern I talked about yesterday is still on its way. Usually, the initial slap from these Arctic outbreaks is pretty tame when we get into these Nanook of the North weather regimes.

That's the case this time. Temperature will recover to the low 20s Friday, and low 30s Saturday. They'll probably settle into the mid and upper 20s Sunday and Monday afternoons. So, not bad!

Between tonight and Monday, we'll have chances of snow showers, but we won't see any big piles of snow The snow cover in the valleys will remain thin for awhile after our thaw. 

Most of next week looks pretty frigid. Early guesses put high temperatures most days from Tuesday onward at around 10 degrees, maybe 15 degrees in the warm spots, with lows near zero. Chances of snow showers will continue through the week, but prospects of a big dump of snow are looking pretty bleak for now. 

There might be a brief break in the chill next weekend before it turns really cold again.

One encouraging thing is I might have been right about some of the models backing off on how cold it will get as we get closer to the events. This is looking less and less like near record cold as we head through the rest of the month. Instead, we just face annoying cold..

That means mostly below normal temperatures, but maybe not the kind of extremes we saw back in the 1970s and even early 1990s, when we'd get into the mid 20s to mid 30s below zero.

Fingers crossed that we'll avoid that! 

National Election Day Weather: Some Trouble Spots, But Mostly Smooth Sailing

Today's National Weather Service hazards map
doesn't have all that many issues for people heading
to the polls. The red in California is fire hazards.
The green and dark red in Missouri and Arkansas
are floods. Parts of the Rockies are having winter weather.

 As I noted in a post earlier today, here in Vermont it's smooth weather sailing for those going to the polls today. 

In the United States as a whole, there are weather trouble spots, as there always are, but it's mostly not terrible.

The presidential election hinges really on swing states that we've heard about ad nauseum.  Those include Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona and maybe Georgia and North Carolina.

None of those states face any really remarkable or terribly hazardous weather today, so I don't think weather will affect turnout there one way or another. Besides, a lot of people in those states have already voted, so they won't even have to step out the door today. 

Michigan and Wisconsin look pretty rainy today, but people should be able to handle that. Western North Carolina is still trying to claw their way back from Hurricane Helene.  Early voting in counties hit hard by the hurricane has been pretty strong, which suggests the disaster won't hurt turnout too much in North Carolina.

It's actually cool for the season in Nevada and Arizona, which is a huge shift from the otherwise hot year they've had so far. So no wilting in 100 degree heat to vote there, thank goodness. 

Most of Pennsylvania looks sunny and warm today so no issues there. 

 There are weather trouble spots today in the United States.

 Parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri are still trying to recover from severe weather and flooding yesterday, so I imagine some polling places might be challenged by power outages, blocked roads and damaged neighborhood. 

Quite a bit of flash flooding was going on in parts of Arkansas and Missouri this morning. Parts of Hawaii are dealing with floods, too.

In several spots in the Rocky Mountains, snow and strong winds are messing up travel and making some roads hazardous. 

California, meanwhile, is bracing for a potential outbreak of wildfires today and especially tomorrow.

Overall, though, it's a rather calm Election Day, at least in terms of weather across the United States. Let's hope everything else stays calm.  Stay tuned!

Vermont Snow Squalls Even Thunder Possible Later Today; Storm Chances For Saturday Tick Up

A towering cloud producing a heavy snow squall as
seen looking west from St. Albans, Vermont on 
February 19, 2022. Similar scenes are definitely
possible today, with the risk of locally blinding
squalls and possibly even thunder snow. 

It could be an interesting afternoon and early evening in parts of Vermont today as we gear up for the possibility of a few snow squalls and even possibly thunder snow. 

Meanwhile, the chances of seeing at least a few inches of wet snow Friday night and Saturday have begun to increase, it seems. More on that in a bit. First, today.

BURSTS OF SNOW

I told you the other day how as we get toward spring, we start seeing more convective showers - those clouds that billow higher into the sky and produce warm season thunderstorms. We had some of those Sunday and to a lesser extent Tuesday afternoon.

Today, a strong disturbance is going to goose the atmosphere's ability to produce those brief heavy storms. 

The set up is much like those cold fronts we see in the summer that bump up against warm, humid air. Those are the ones that give us occasional outbreaks of strong to severe, but scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. 

Much like those summer events, showers are coming through this morning in advance of the afternoon excitement. 

 Of course, it's much colder than it is in the summer, so it's mostly snow showers we're seeing. They won't amount to all that much, though in some favored places, they could deposit an inch or so of snow. Then - again - much like on those summer storm days -   the sun will at least partly break out during the midday to help destabilize the atmosphere. 

Then a cold front will approach, probably firing up a broken line of snow showers and squalls toward mid to late afternoon.

It'll be above freezing by then across most of Vermont. Many valleys will be near 40 degrees. Even so, these will be mostly snow, not rain. There's plenty of cold air aloft, and the bursts of snow will draw cold, gusty winds from up high down to where we are, so it will be snow.

These will also be hit and miss, as is usual with these kinds of things. Some places will see blinding snow squalls with fairly strong gusty winds and maybe even a rumble of thunder. Other places will see just the usual snow showers, no biggie. 

The heavier squalls and possible thunder could happen anywhere in Vermont. The National Weather Service in South Burlington gives the zone between Route 2 and Route 4 a slight edge at having the vest chances all this happening. 

Be prepared this afternoon and evening for those snow squalls. They can cut visibility on the highways from great to zero in seconds flat. That's how you get those highway pileups. The squalls take motorists by surprise.

Also, roads will go from dry to wet to icy and snow covered in a flash, too. 

THEN COLD, THEN SNOWSTORM?

Temperatures are still forecast to crash to far below freezing tonight, with snow showers continuing, especially up in the mountains. Total accumulations will be at most two inches in the valleys, with many places seeing an inch or less.

The entire Green Mountain chain, and much of the Northeast Kingdom, should expect two to as much as six inches out of this little spell. Some northern summits, think Jay Peak, could get more than six inches. 

Temperatures should stay below freezing for most of us from this evening, then all day tomorrow and on into Friday. 

Remember how I told you yesterday the computer models were all squabbling over what would happen with a potential storm Saturday?  It looks like they're starting to negotiate a peace agreement, but they're not quite there yet. 

There is a growing consensus there will be some type of storm in the Northeast on Saturday. Its potential path seems favorable to snow in Vermont. 

We still don't know how much, but a few to several inches is definitely possible. It's a late season thing, so it'll probably be wet and heavy stuff. If there's a lot of it, we could be dealing with power outages again. 

If there is a lot of snow, early guesses place the most snow in central and southeastern Vermont, but that's still something of a question mark. Stay tuned!

Our week of winter will then last into Sunday, then it looks like we start returning to spring around next Monday or Tuesday.

 

After Record-Shattering Warmth Today, Vermont In For A Wild, Stormy Ride

Go back! Lots of daffodil shoots and other green plants
were coming up today in my St. Albans, Vermont 
gardens amid record warmth. In February. 

 As you might have noticed, the warmth in most of Vermont really over-performed today, as record highs were shattered by wide margins. 

Burlington got up to 65 degrees, blasting past the old record for the date of 57 set in 2000.

 In nearby St. Albans, I found myself doing outdoor yard chores comfortably dressed in shorts and a sleeveless t-shirt. 

Other record highs  today included 55 in Montpelier and 54 in Plattsburgh.  

The wild storm due tomorrow seems wilder than earlier forecasts, judging from forecasts issued this afternoon. There are a bunch of weather alerts, watches, prognostications of other hazards and some pretty extreme changes in the weather. 

Let's take the hazards one at a time, though a lot of these problems will be intertwined. 

High Winds

Virtually all if Vermont is under either a high wind watch or a wind advisory for Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Southern Vermont, and the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains into central Vermont, are under a high wind watch from early afternoon well into the evening. 

Although some damaging wind gusts - up to 60 mph - could occur before the storm's powerful cold front comes through Wednesday evening, most of these gusts in the high wind watch area will hit along and just after the front comes through. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, a wind advisory is up from Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning.  Once again, some of the strong gusts could come through in the warm air ahead of the cold front, but the worst of it will be along the cold front and in the rapidly chilling air behind it. Gusts could reach 55 mph. 

This won't be as destructive as the two big wind storms in January, but we'll deal with some tree damage and scattered power outages with this one.

Thunderstorms

A real rarity for February: A low, but not
zero risk of severe thunderstorms in the 
Northeast, including Vermont. Severe
storms possible in darker green shading on map.

We could see some thunderstorms during the morning or early afternoon, but that's iffy. 

The real trouble would be just ahead and along the cold front Wednesday evening. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center actually has us under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday, which is extremely rare for February.   

The only time I can remember Vermont being under my kind of severe thunderstorm risk in February was at the tail end of record February warmth in 2017.

True, a marginal risk is the lowest level of five risk levels, but still that's something. This will probably take the form of a narrow line of strong storms sweeping west to east across Vermont as the cold front plows through. 

There will probably be only a little lightning, or maybe none at all in many places, but these storms will mean business. 

Flooding

A flood watch has been hoisted for all of Vermont. Rainfall won't be all that extreme -  running from a half inch to a little over an inch. 

However, most of it will come in heavy downpours in the late afternoon and evening. Plus, there's snow melt. There actually is some snow in the mid and high elevations. Today's warmth "primed" the snow for melting.

Warmth, and a high humidity for this time of year will really melt that snow super fast Wednesday afternoon before the cold air hits. The combination of the snowmelt from the mountains and the rain should make rivers rise pretty fast Wednesday evening and night. 

The rivers to watch in Vermont are mostly the Otter Creek in Rutland County, and the Mad River in central Vermont which could hit minor flood stage. 

This won't be as bad as the flooding we had in December, but look out for high water on low lying roads, ponding and urban street flooding during and just after the evening downpours and some washouts on back roads.

Record Warmth

Given how much warmer it got today than forecast, I see that meteorologists are now pretty bullish on record heat on Wednesday.  It still looks like there might be a lull in the showers during the afternoon. 

Even though it will be much cloudier Wednesday than today, the atmosphere will actually hold more heat than this afternoon. The result: More highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s are definitely possible. That will shatter more records. 

Snow/Flash Freeze/Wind Chills

We're still looking at an incredible temperature crash after the cold front goes through. Since this is part of such a dynamic storm systems, we'll see a rapid change over to snow - probably within three hours after the cold front blasts through.  There might be a brief period of heavy, wet snow, maybe even isolated thunder snow. Then the snow will rapidly taper off to fluffy flurries.

As temperatures crash, much of the day's rain and that possible burst of wet snow will freeze. So by later Wednesday night and overnight Thursday, the roads will probably turn awful in a hurry. There still should be a "hangover" of slick roads even by the time the Thursday morning commute rolls around. 

Skies will rapidly clear Thursday, but it will be a truly winter day - the last we'll have for quite awhile, as it looks. After getting down to within a few degrees of 10 above in the morning, it will barely make it to the low 20s in the afternoon, if that. The wind will continue to blow hard, gusting to 35 mph or more in a few spots. Expect wind chills near 0.

That will certainly be a shock to the system after today.  But we're still looking at more spring weather starting over the weekend. 

Sure, tomorrow and tomorrow night's weather will be a bit challenging in Vermont, but nothing like other parts of the nation.  

For instance, there's a 0 percent chance of flaming tumbleweeds racing across  Vermont roads tomorrow. That's not the case in parts of Texas, where wildfires amid winds over 60 mph have caused evacuations and property damage.

Meanwhile, parts of Illinois, including Chicago, and other areas of the Midwest are bracing for giant hail and possible tornadoes overnight. 

 

Could Lingering Flood Echoes From Monday's Storm Spell Trouble Down The Road?

Severe, record breaking flooding along Lake Champlain
in May, 2011,  The lake is high now, but not quite flooding.
However, if heavy precipitation continues through the 
winter and spring, some shoreline flooding is possible
come next April and May 

 None of Vermont's rivers as far as I can tell are above flood stage anymore late this Thursday afternoon.

Yay! 

But the floods from early in the week are still causing lingering issues. Elsewhere in New England, and right here in Vermont. 

Down in Connecticut, the Connecticut River crested at moderate flood stage south of Hartford this morning. (It crested at Hartford yesterday afternoon at the highest level since Hurricane Irene in 2011).

The flooding had closed several roads and parks along the Connecticut River, but most homes and businesses are high enough to avoid damage.

In Maine, the Androscoggin River crested at major flood state Tuesday and Wednesday and was considered a 100 year flood. That means there's a one in 100 chance in a given year the flooding would get that bad. 

The flooding in Maine is likely the second worst in the state's history. 

Back here in Vermont, the only trouble spot remaining is Lake Champlain.  The lake level today had risen to 99.05 feet above sea level. It rose sharply as flooded rivers flowed in the lake Tuesday and Wednesday but seemed to be leveling off today. 

The lake level today is just under six inches below minor flood stage. It's also just a little under the record highs for this time of year, set in 1983.

With stiff north winds today, the lake was high enough to splash over onto roads near the shore, including the Route 2 Causeway connecting Colchester and South Hero.  That splash over froze onto the roadway, making conditions treacherous. There were probably other near-shore roads that suffered the same problem in today's chill.

Runoff from the flooding earlier this week made Lake
Champlain rise to just under six inches below minor
flood stage.  It appears to be leveling off now, 

There was also a minor version of something called a seiche on Lake Champlain today.  Steady north winds pretty much tilted the lake, making it a wee bit shallower on the north end and a little higher on the south end. On the far southern end of the lake, the minor flood stage of 99.5 feet might have been briefly reached today. 

The lake probably sloshed back northward as the sun set and the winds down down late this afternoon, and the lake level was very likely leveling off to something near horizontal.  

The current  high lake levels do raise questions as to what will happen when Lake Champlain reaches its typical yearly peak crest in the spring. 

The lake will surely begin to recede in the coming days, and typically slowly goes down or during January and February. Which means there's no immediate threat of any serious flooding.

Where trouble can arise is if the lake stays higher than normal through the winter. If deep snow eventually piles up in the mountains, and then we have a wet spring, the combination of snow melt and rain runoff could make Lake Champlain flood. Especially if it rises from a higher starting point in March or April than it usually does.

There's no real way to predict whether or not Lake Champlain will cause trouble in the spring. Ground water is certainly above normal as we head into the heart of winter, which could help encourage eventual flooding. However, mountain snow pack is far below normal at the moment. 

That said, nobody has any idea how much precipitation we'll get in the winter and spring. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington usually starts a bi-weekly spring flood outlook in January and continues it into the early spring to give people an idea of whether there is much of a risk of another inundation. 

Nation Gets Rare Break From Endless Disasters: Rare Week Of No Big U.S. Weather Hazards

Roseanne Roseannadanna consistently said, "It's
always something," but today, in a rare treat,
there's nothing. At least in terms of weather
hazards across the United States. 

 Every morning when I'm thinking about this here blog thingy, I check the National Weather Service hazards pages to see what fresh hell the United States is in for. 

As Roseanne Roseannadanna would say, It's always something. This year has been one helluva ride with tornadoes, severe weather, floods, heat waves, cold snaps, winter storms, hurricanes, drought, you name it. Probably even locusts.

Today, Nada. 

It's actually pretty rare to see no major weather extremes going on anywhere in the United States. 

But this morning, the United States gets a real, very rare treat: The National Weather Service is pretty much coming up empty with forecasted weather hazards this week.  Enjoy it. With climate change and El Nino raging, this calm won't last. 

I did check everything:

The current, immediate warning page this morning had alerts for frosts and freezes in Kansas and western Oklahoma, alerts for potential high winds in parts of Montana, and forecasts of minor coastal flooding in New Jersey and Delaware.  In other words, nothing much. 

For tropical storms and hurricanes, lame little Tropical Storm Sean way out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean died a pitiful death. There's another disturbance out there that has a good shot at becoming Tropical Storm Tammy, but that won't happen until a week or more.  

The National Weather Service severe thunderstorm and tornado page showed the chance of a few non-severe thunderstorms in the Pacific Northwest today, and no thunderstorms at all anywhere in the Lower 48 Tuesday and Wednesday. No severe storm outbreaks are forecast for the next week. 

Next it was on to wildfire hazards.  You can still  get some nasty wildfires, especially in southern California this time of year. Nope, nothing there. 

I almost always find signs of trouble on the NWS Weather Prediction Page, which forecasts excessive rains and winter storms.  There are no early season winter storms in the offing. And, for the first time in ages, I found no signs of any flooding concerns in the Lower 48 for the next five days. 

The Weather Prediction Page did find signs of possibly heavy rains in New England and New York this coming Saturday, but so far it doesn't look like it would be enough to cause any flooding worries.

Extended forecasts into early next week also don't show any real weather hazards in the United States. Of course, that could change, as predictions are always adjusted and a new weather risk might pop up somewhere. But for now, everybody can relax.

They say that no news is good news, and that's certainly the case here.