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| National Weather Service snowfall prediction map for late tonight and tomorrow. This is another big bust potential map, especially in Vermont. We could end up getting much more or much less snow than depicted here. It depends on how quickly rain will turn to snow early tomorrow, |
We've had a series of warm days, so, at least as measured in Burlington, January so far is running about three degrees warmer than average.
That's about to change soon.
It'll be cloudy and mild ahead of a cold front today, with highs once again in the 30s to low 40s. Then trouble begins to arrive tonight.
That's in the form of a wave of low pressure forming on the front. We knew yesterday this would be the case. Now, it seems the storm will be going just a little further west than depicted in yesterday's forecast.
That means northern New York should get most of the snow out of this. Current forecasts have folks across the pond getting three to 6.5 inches of snow.
The cold air will flood into Vermont as dawn breaks, changing our rain to snow. Meteorologists are struggling with how much snow Vermont will see out of this, as different computer models this morning are still giving highly different results.
That's especially true in northwestern Vermont, where amounts really could range from one to eight inches. It'll probably be closer to two or three inches. But stay tuned, because this forecast could change a lot.
By the time you get to southeastern Vermont, you likely won't see much snow out of this. Maybe an inch if you're lucky.
No matter how much snow we get, tomorrow morning's drive time looks like a real mess. The temperature will crash and fast Water will be freezing on roads and sidewalks and snow will fall on top of that. Give yourself plenty of time to get to work or school tomorrow, or try to work from home.
Temperatures will fall through the 20s and teens all day and gusty winds will make things feel worse. The snow should dwindle to snow showers during the day. By Friday morning, temperatures should be within a few degrees either side of zero for most of us.
This will be the opening salvo of a pretty intense winter siege for us in Vermont, and for many people in the Upper Midwest, Northeast and southeast Canada.
After a chilly Friday, we'll have one more mild day before the forces of the Arctic take over.
FRIGID PATTERN
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| A schematic of the jet stream and air flow expected next week. Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see. Follow the dark green lines from near the North Pole southward through Canada and into the Great Lakes and Northeast. That shows how the air will be moving next week. Since the air is coming from the North Pole, be prepared to really bundle up. |
That pattern features a huge northward bulge in the jet stream near western North America and a sharp southward dip in the eastern half of the continent.
Amid all this, the polar vortex, the whirl of frigid air that roams the Arctic all winter, is positioned closer to us than normal. In this case, roughly near Hudson Bay instead of way up by the North Pole.
The polar vortex is settling in near Hudson Bay because another Greenland block is shoving it there. The Greenland block, as you might recall from a previous post, is unusual high pressure and warm air (well, warm for them) around Greenland.
In some winters, this happens repeatedly and is hard to dislodge. Apparently, this is one of those winters.
Going forward, we'll have to deal with several blasts of frigid air, directly from the North Pole. There might be brief breaks of somewhat more reasonable air lasting a day or two before new Arctic cold fronts plunge through, bringing us back to Yukon style winter weather.
It's hard to tell in advance precisely how cold this pattern will get for us, but it has the potential to be the most intense cold at least since the icy weather in February, 2015 or the rough winter of 2013-14. The worst case but possible scenario would be the coldest weather since the very frigid winters of 1993 and 1994.
This is definitely a shivery pattern for us, but will it be good for snow lovers?
The answer is mixed.
With each cold front coming down from the northern reaches of Canada, we'll see bouts of light snow and flurries. In other words, not much snow.
If any of these northern cold fronts aligns with a storm way down near the Gulf of Mexico - this is called phasing - them we could see some blockbuster storms. With phasing, very wet southern storms cooperate with cold, dry northern storms to produce systems that can drop a lot of snow.
The best chance of this happening might be later in the month, when some forecasts have the center of the "dip" in the jet stream move slightly westward. That would give room for storms to race up the East Coast.
Only time will tell if that will actually come to pass.
As far as how long this upcoming frigid pattern will last, it's anybody's guess. From what I can tell, this could go into February.
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