Vermont/Northern New England Probably Having Coldest Winter In Lower 48

A cold winter sky over Vermont on Friday. Unlike
most of the rest of the nation, we're having a 
relatively chilly winter. Despite a modest upcoming
thaw, it doesn't look like that pattern will change
much as we go through January. 

As winters go, most of the United States, with the very notable exception of Alaska, is having a pretty easy winter. 

At least as far as temperatures go. 

There have been some horrible storms this winter, but it's been mild for most of the Lower 48. 

Except for us. Here in Vermont, it's been a chilly winter. We're in a zone stretching from  the northern Great Lakes to New England that can't seem to find the warm spells very often. 

Sure, there's been cold waves all over the United States east of the Rockies. New Year's Eve was chilly in Florida, for instance. But the dominate weather outside of New England and the northern Great Lakes has been balmy.

During the week around Christmas, the Lower 48 had around 4,700 record highs (daytime highs and record high overnight lows). During tha period, there were only 55 cold records.

As a whole, Christmas Day in the Lower 48 by a wide margin. New England was the exception. Burlington, Vermont was 5.5 degrees cooler than normal that day.

Most of the western United States had a record warm December, with temperatures running an incredible eight to 10 degrees above normal in many cities. Here in Vermont, December was about 5  degrees on the cold side. 

Today and over the past couple of days, an Arctic weather front has been draped more or less from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan to southern New England. 

North of that front, the frigid weather has held firm. South of that front, temperatures are running near normal. 

THE FORECAST

For those who like cold weather in New England, this general pattern looks like it will continue. 

Oh, sure, we're still about to get a January thaw later this week and next weekend. But at least so far, the amount of warming in the forecasts look pretty unimpressive. 

Today and tomorrow will continue the cold spell we've been under for the last several days. Highs both days will be in the teens. If it manages to stay clear tonight, lows will get well below zero. A weak disturbance will probably throw a dusting of snow our way tomorrow afternoon and evening. 

Another slightly stronger but still relatively insignificant storm will come through Tuesday night and Wednesday, spreading a little snow, sleet and freezing rain our way. It could be messy Wednesday  morning on the way to work. 

At this point, it looks like Wednesday and Thursday around Vermont will barely get above freezing for the start of our January "thaw." 

It still looks like a storm will go by to our west Friday and Saturday, which would boost temperatures into the low 40s for some bonafide thawing. Unless that forecasts shifts, though, the real warm air will stay suppressed to our south. 

The thaw will be brief as colder weather returns in about a week. It probably won't be as cold as it has been the past few days, but still chilly. After temperatures go back below freezing next Sunday, we'll probably go back to the same weather pattern we've been in.

That means much of the U.S. will have either normal or warmer than normal temperatures as we head into the second half of January. Here in Vermont and New England, just more winter.