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| National Weather Service snow prediction map taking us through a small 1 to 3 inch snowfall later today combined with a slightly larger but not huge storm Tuesday night. Some mix is possible toward the end of the second storm late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to read. |
It was one of the most impressive lake effect snowfalls off of Lake Champlain I've ever seen.
Most of the snow fell on the New York side of the lake, but some of it clipped the immediate lakeshore on the Vermont side.
Snowfall totals included 9 inches in Port Henry, New York, 7 inches in Willsboro and Crown Point, and 6 inches in Mineville and Moriah Center, New York and Chimney Point in West Addison, Vermont.
Light winds, just east of due north, flowed down the length of Lake Champlain all day. The direction of the wind aimed the snow at the southern end of the lake on the New York side, but also clipped the point of land that juts into the lake at West Addison, Vermont.
Since the winds weren't very strong, they had plenty of time to gather moisture off unfrozen sections of the lake. The lake narrows as you head south and hills on either side of the lake become closer together. That, and some light west winds coming over the Adirondacks, helped the air flow converge, or squeeze together.
When that happens, the air has nowhere to go but up. Rising air cools, and that makes the moisture in the air condense. That condensed moisture fell as snow. It was a fluffy stuff, so it was able to accumulate pretty deeply.
WHAT'S NEXT
The big picture is all of us, not just a small piece of the southern Champlain Valley are going to get some snow this week. The bad news is we're going to get some other stuff, too. We have three or four quick storms to talk about. None of them are huge, but each will affect your life to some degree.
Storm #1
After a morning that brought us temperatures near or below for, it's clouding up pretty fast. A tiny storm is going to go right over the top of us this afternoon and night. Since the system is so small, this will be a quickie. It'll start snowing by around mid afternoon and finish up before midnight. I'm calling this "Storm #1 but that's being generous. It's a minor thing.
Most of us should get between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of snow, with maybe a little less in the Northeast Kingdom, where the air might be a little drier. It'll stay cold with this little event. High temperatures much like yesterday, will stay in the teens.
Today's snow, although not amounting to much, should be enough to make the drive home from work this afternoon and evening a little slick and annoying. Plan on taking it slow.
Tomorrow, ahead of the next storm, will feel like a glorious heat wave. Highs should soar all the way to near 30, which is close to normal for this time of year.
The next storm hits tomorrow night. It will be a little bigger than today's squirt of snow, but it won't be enormous.
It'll come out of the southeastern Great Lakes tomorrow evening and head toward northern Vermont, where it will begin to fade. A new storm will form near Maine and become the predominate one.
How and when this little transfer of power from the original storm to the new one in Maine will determine how much of this will be snow and how much will be a mix.
As it stands now, the transfer will keep us in Vermont with mostly snow. Especially north. Current projections have us getting two to six inches of snow, with some mixed precipitation toward the end of the storm late Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
Southern Vermont should get less snow, maybe one to two inches out of this storm, and more freezing rain and sleet than the north. This will mess up the roads, but be not nearly enough to wreck trees and power lines like the last bout of freezing rain on December 29 did.
#Storms #3 and #4
For some of us, our well advertised January thaw wills start marginally on Wednesday, as highs get into the mid 30s. Thursday will be mild and quiet, with highs in the 35 to 42 degree range.
Then we get the next system. I'm calling this batch Storm #3 and Storm #4 because current projections have it coming in two waves. At least some computer models have one storm going by to our west Friday and another close on its heels Saturday.
Since both storms will go by to our west, these storms will be almost exclusively rain. At this point, I don't think either of these systems will produce enough rain and thawing to create a flood concern. But we'll keep an eye on these as they get closer nevertheless.
Starting next Sunday night and Monday , we will get back to our regularly scheduled winter. At first, the the cold won't be too intense. It'll basically be about average early next week. But signs point to gradually deepening cold as we head further into the month.
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