Thursday Morning Vermont Update: Windy Thaw Friday, But Icy Risk By Saturday Night

After the overnight snow, it got quite foggy here in 
St. Albans, Vermont yesterday. Low clouds and fog
this morning are forecast to break up for some
sun. Then we have to messy storms to deal with. 

 I hope you enjoyed the dense fog amid the fresh snow yesterday in Vermont. Most places received between 1.5 and 4.5 inches of snow. 

There were, as usual, a few hot spots of deeper snow. Chelsea had six inches and nearby Tunbridge clocked in at 5.5 inches. Shrewsbury, high up in Rutland County clocked in with 5.4 inches. 

For some reason, the area around Burlington also got a little more than most people, with about five inches. 

Despite the patches of flurries and low clouds and fog and maybe even a few drops of freezing drizzle this morning, today is going to be a nice one. Eventually. I hope. Meteorologists are insisting some sunshine should break out this afternoon and temperatures should rise into the mid-30s for the most part.

Enjoy it, because it's going to turn nasty again.

FRIDAY

The first wave of annoying weather will come through tomorrow. It'll be especially bothersome for winter sports types who want to keep the snow around.

 Light rain will start in the morning and continue through the day. There might be a few pockets of freezing rain to start the day east of the Green Mountains, but it won't be widespread and won't last long. 

West of the Green Mountains, south winds will also pick up on Friday, gusting as high as 40 mph. 

Most of us - even those of you in the high elevations - should get into the 40s.  A couple spots might threaten the 50 degree mark. 

We're only going to get maybe a tenth to a quarter inch of rain out of this, so the flood threat is pretty low. There might be some rises and rivers and streams. We'll have to watch for some ice breaking up in those rivers, because of the threat of ice jams. 

The snow is deep enough in high elevations so that you'll only lose some of it. The bulk of it should remain in place. 

But overall, the threat is fairly low, since the rain will be light. A cold front will drop temperatures into the upper 20s to low 30s Friday night, which would virtually shut off the thawing.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY

There are two storms with this supposed January thaw, the one we talked about on Friday and another Saturday into Sunday. The forecast for the second storm keeps getting colder.  

Forecasts from a couple days ago suggested this second storm would be mostly in the form of rain. As of this morning, we're not so sure. 

Each round of computer models have been trending colder with the second storm. Not cold enough to give us a nice "recovery" snowstorm after the Friday thaw, unfortunately. Instead, we're looking at another dose of mixed precipitation. 

The Friday storm will flop a weak cold front down from Quebec, giving us slightly colder air. The main storm will start to go up to the Great Lakes, as previously forecast. Also, as previously expected, a new storm is scheduled to start forming during the middle of this near the New England coast. 

This will help cut off the movement of warm air northward toward us. 

For now, the forecast calls for mixed precipitation to start Saturday afternoon and go on into the night. It might be a situation of a mix to rain to a mix and snow again on Sunday.

The details of this are still TBA, so stay tuned for updates, especially if you plan to drive anywhere Saturday night. As it stands now the best chances for any snow accumulation would be right near the Canadian border. The best chances for freezing rain would be mainly east of the Green Mountains north of Route 4 and maybe the far northern Champlain Valley. The Adirondacks of New York would also be  at risk for ice.

It still looks like many if not most of us will see an interval of plain rain somewhere in the middle of all that. But we'll need to pay attention to any further shifts toward a colder forecast. 

Whatever happens Saturday night and Sunday, we have some good news for those who hate intense cold.

A return to Arctic weather has been postponed a bit. The first half of next week should be relatively mild with highs mostly in the 28 to 36 degree range. Somewhat colder than average air should then arrive for the second half of next week. But even that shouldn't be too intense.

The real frigid air is now looking like it might not get here until around January 19 or 20. That date is so far away that I expect the forecast will get some revisions before we get to those dates.