Weekend Vermont Storm Looking Even Colder, Snow Chances Increase

Slate colored clouds looking west from St. Albans, Vermont 
this morning portended some rain showers moving in
by this afternoon. 

 The weather forecast for Vermont today looks pretty easy to figure out. For later in the weekend, not so much. 

The trends for the Saturday night and Sunday storm are continuing to look colder. It's now looking like at least northern parts of the state might get more snow than rain out of it. 

More on that in a minute. First we have to get through today. 

TODAY/TOMORROW

Roads across Vermont outside of the Champlain Valley were slick in many areas. Moist air and some of the remnants of melting snow froze overnight, leaving black ice on the roadways. That problem will ease later this morning as temperatures rise above freezing.

The first of two storms we're dealing with will go by to our west today. That ensures everybody in Vermont will see rain. Not much, though. Rainfall this afternoon and evening should amount to 0.1 to 0.2 inches for most of us. 

Winds will be gusty in places today, especially in the Champlain Valley and across the pond in northern New York.

Snow lovers have one bit of good news today. Record warmth is embracing the southeastern United States today, but it will only be sort of warm here. True, daytime highs in the 40s today will melt some of the snow. Or all of it in places where the snow cover is quite thin in southern Vermont valleys. 

However, the very warmest air won't be able to make it this far north before it gets cut off at the pass by a cold front this evening. The cold front is no powerhouse. By morning, temperatures will be close to 30 degrees, which is a mild morning by January standards

Saturday will be the stereotypical calm before the storm. Some sun might break out in the morning for a bit, but it will cloud over in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 30s.

THE STORM

First of all, some background. It's a pretty dynamic system. For evidence, I present you with the four reported out of season tornadoes that touched down in Oklahoma yesterday. They weren't huge, but still.

Today. more severe storms and maybe some tornadoes, are in the forecast for the Deep South.  Meteorologist are also expecting some heavy rain and flooding in the Gulf Coast states. 

The good news for us in Vermont is the deepest moisture, the most chaotic part of the atmosphere  and the heaviest precipitation will zoom up from the South, through the Mid-Atlantic States and then offshore via the southern New England coast. Meaning, the torrential stuff will miss us. 

Still, though, we will get our share of precipitation, even if it's not torrential. We're still expecting a double-barrel storm. Once center will go up through the Great Lakes, the other will take shape near southern New England. 

The southern New England one keeps looking a little stronger with each run of the computer models, so that would tend to keep the cold air locked in better. 

Of course, temperatures throughout most of the atmosphere during this event will be touch and go between snow and a mix. So don't take the following prediction as gospel quite yet.

But as it stands now, it looks like places north of Route 2 in Vermont might see mostly snow, with just a little mix of ice or rain in there. Total snow accumulation through Sunday morning up there would be in the two to four inch range. 

Between Route 2 and 4, there would be more of a mix, so total snow accumulation might be in the one or two inch range, with maybe a slight glaze of ice.

South of Route 4, it will be mostly rain with maybe some ice and a few snowflakes. 

Again, the forecasts are still in flux, so expect some changes. 

SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND

The remnants of the part of the storm that ended up in the Great Lakes is forecast to come through Sunday night. That would spread another two or three inches of snow across northern Vermont, with maybe a little more in the mountains. That Sunday night burst of snow could leave one to three inches of snow in central Vermont, with less than that across the south. 

The first half of the upcoming week still looks like it will be on the mild side, with daytime highs Tuesday and Wednesday probably getting a little above freezing.

But, a long spell of cold to bitter cold weather looks like it will start during the second half of next week. Chances are rising that the Arctic air could last through the end of January.