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| Some days this time of year I don't want to go beyond my front door to take a photo. Just too cold. Today was one of those days. Can't imagine I'll be gardening out in this yard anytime soon. |
The snowy, chilly weather started early, in the first half of November. We've had some sort of mild spells, but most of the time, it's been cold, snowy or both.
The current cold wave is the most disheartening yet because it's lasting longer than any spell of Arctic air since January, 2005.
We have gotten a bit soft, and not used to this.
This morning, it was below zero across Vermont again. On the plus side, winds keep temperatures from completely bottoming out.
Pretty much everybody stayed in the single numbers below zero. But the northwest breeze has dropped our wind chills into the 20s below zero.
It could have been worse. Conditions over in New York shows what can happen when winds go calm on a clear Arctic night. In Watertown, New York, just after winds went calm, the temperature fell from minus 2 to minus 17 within an hour late last evening, on its way down to a ridiculous low of 33 below early this morning. Not wind chill. Actual temperature. Down in Glens Falls, New York, it was 21 below this morning.
I'm not anticipating anything that ridiculous in Vermont coming up. But it'll stay cold. Everyone in Vermont except maybe the warmest southern valleys should stay in the single numbers today.
Through Sunday, highs will be in the teens and lows will go into the single numbers. The overall cold pattern still looks like it will continue into mid-February.
I know many people love this. A true Vermont winter made for winter sports, ice fishing or just the fresh white scenery.
There's a bunch of us, though who are so ready for a change. For spring. That's not coming anytime soon. But we have several glimmers of positivity to hang on to for dear life. They're not much, but we'll take anything we can get:
Nor'easter: Definitely a whiff. Winter storm warnings are up for the Carolinas and parts of Georgia. North Carolina's Outer Banks will endure a full-blown blizzard with 65 wind gusts and dangerous coastal flooding. This storm will also knick Cape Cod and the islands.
But for us in Vermont, it will only throw some high clouds our way and maybe increase the north winds slightly on Sunday.
A "Warm-up": The cold should temporarily relax for a good part of next week with highs on several days making it to near 20 or even the low to mid 20s. That's still a few degrees colder than average, but it's not as cold as we're experiencing now. However, there are signs that "heat wave" might only last a few days. Still, it's something
No Records: We've gotten wimpy. We're not even close to setting much in the way of winter extreme records. Maybe it feels like things are off the charts but they aren't. Sure, snow depth atop Mount Mansfield earlier this winter was at record highs are are above normal now. The 81 inches of snow cover measured yesterday up there was the third highest for the dates
But here in the valleys, as measured in Burlington, as of yesterday, they were only 10 inches ahead of normal for seasonal snowfall for the date. Very little, if any snow will fall for at least the next week.
And as we head into February, we absolutely won't break our record for the coldest temperature of the moth, which is 30 below in 1979 for Burlington.
Turn Of The Clock: On average, the coldest days of the year in Burlington just ended today. From January 17 through 28, the normal average temperature in Burlington is 20 degrees. Today, that average increases to 20.5. The average will very gradually, grudgingly go up in February, then that pace will get faster starting in March.
Also, the sunset in Burlington will come at 5 p.m. tomorrow. That'll be the first 5 p.m. sunset of the year.
Pattern Change Hint? For the first time in weeks, the people at the National Weather Service who put together the daily 8 to 14 day outlooks yesterday suggested a pattern change might be in the offing during the second half of February.
They don't say exactly what that pattern change would be, but chances are it would the warmer for us. I'm still skeptical because what is known as the Arctic Oscillation is still negative and should stay that way at least into mid-February.
A negative Arctic Oscillation, means high pressure in the Arctic with relatively warm, for them temperatures. This pattern squashes the cold air that is supposed to be up in northern Canada down into our faces south of the border in the eastern United States.
There are tentative, uncertain signs the negative Arctic Oscillation could start to weaken after the middle of February.
This is a thin strand of hope, but some of us will take anything.
weak signs of improvemet'
ave temp up
first 5 p.m. sunset tomorrow.
hints at pattern change
some days in 20s not teens next wee
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