The Vermont Deep Chill Stays Deep; Subtle, Weak Signs Of Eventual Relief

Some days this time of year I don't want to go beyond
my front door to take a photo. Just too cold. Today
was one of those days. Can't imagine I'll be 
gardening out in this yard anytime soon. 

This has really been a long winter in Vermont. 

The snowy,  chilly weather started early, in the first half of November. We've had some sort of mild spells, but most of the time, it's been cold, snowy or both. 

The current cold wave is the most disheartening yet because it's lasting longer than any spell of Arctic air since January, 2005. 

We have gotten a bit soft, and not used to this. 

This morning, it was below zero across Vermont again.  On the plus side, winds keep temperatures from completely bottoming out. 

Pretty much everybody stayed in the single numbers below zero. But the northwest breeze has dropped our wind chills into the 20s below zero. 

It could have been worse. Conditions over in New York shows what can happen when winds go calm on a clear Arctic night. In Watertown, New York, just after winds went calm, the temperature fell from minus 2 to minus 17 within an hour late last evening, on its way down to a ridiculous low of 33 below early this morning. Not wind chill. Actual temperature. Down in Glens Falls, New York, it was 21 below this morning. 

I'm not anticipating anything that ridiculous in Vermont coming up. But it'll stay cold. Everyone in Vermont except maybe the warmest southern valleys should stay in the single numbers today. 

Through Sunday, highs will be in the teens and lows will go into the single numbers. The overall cold pattern still looks like it will continue into mid-February. 

I know many people love this. A true Vermont winter made for winter sports, ice fishing or just the fresh white scenery. 

There's a bunch of us, though who are so ready for a change. For spring. That's not coming anytime soon. But we have several glimmers of positivity to hang on to for dear life. They're not much, but we'll take anything we can get:

Nor'easter: Definitely a whiff. Winter storm warnings are up for the Carolinas and parts of Georgia. North Carolina's Outer Banks will endure a full-blown blizzard with 65 wind gusts and dangerous coastal flooding. This storm will also knick Cape Cod and the islands. 

But for us in Vermont, it will only throw some high clouds our way and maybe increase the north winds slightly on Sunday. 

A "Warm-up":  The cold should temporarily relax for a good part of next week with highs on several days making it to near 20 or even the low to mid 20s. That's still a few degrees colder than average, but it's not as cold as we're experiencing now. However, there are signs that "heat wave" might only last a few days. Still, it's something

No Records: We've gotten wimpy. We're not even close to setting much in the way of winter extreme records. Maybe it feels like things are off the charts but they aren't. Sure, snow depth atop Mount Mansfield earlier this winter was at record highs are are above normal now. The 81 inches of snow cover measured yesterday up there was the third highest for the dates

But here in the valleys, as measured in Burlington, as of yesterday, they were only 10 inches ahead of normal for seasonal snowfall for the date. Very little, if any snow will fall for at least the next week. 

And as we head into February, we absolutely won't break our record for the coldest temperature of the moth, which is 30 below in 1979 for Burlington. 

Turn Of The Clock: On average, the coldest days of the year in Burlington just ended today. From January 17 through 28, the normal average temperature in Burlington is 20 degrees. Today, that average increases to 20.5. The average will very gradually, grudgingly go up in February, then that pace will get faster starting in March. 

Also, the sunset in Burlington will come at 5 p.m. tomorrow.  That'll be the first 5 p.m. sunset of the year. 

Pattern Change Hint? For the first time in weeks, the people at the National Weather Service who put together the daily 8 to 14 day outlooks yesterday suggested a pattern change might be in the offing during the second half of February. 

They don't say exactly what that pattern change would be, but chances are it would the warmer for us. I'm still skeptical because what is known as the Arctic Oscillation is still negative and should stay that way at least into mid-February. 

A negative Arctic Oscillation, means high pressure in the Arctic with relatively warm, for them temperatures. This pattern squashes the cold air that is supposed to be up in northern Canada down into our faces south of the border in the eastern United States.

There are tentative, uncertain signs the negative Arctic Oscillation could start to weaken after the middle of February. 

This is a thin strand of hope, but some of us will take anything. 

weak signs of improvemet'

ave temp up 

first 5 p.m. sunset tomorrow. 

hints at pattern change

some days in 20s not teens next wee 

Hundreds Of Trucks And Cars Stuck On Ice-Locked Mississippi Interstate Amid Widespread Southern Ice Storm Power Outages

Missouri Department of Transportation traffic cam image
from this afternoon shows I-269 in the northern part of
the state still covered in ice and truck traffic
still backed up of miles. This nearly four days
after the freezing rain stopped falling. 

The Great Ice Storm  of 2026 in the southern United States continues to wreak havoc, days after the icy rains and snow ended. 

There's been dozens of deaths associated by the storm. By one count, 111 people have perished from either direct or indirect effects of the storm and cold wave. causes directly and directly connected to the storm and cold weather.  

The trouble now is it so far not warmed up after freezing rain stopped falling. Though some of the ice has melted from all those sagging trees, many road and highways contain thick, stubborn layers of ice. 

This includes major routes like Interstate 22 and Interstate 55, along with other main roads across northern Mississippi.

The freezing rain might have ended by this past Sunday night. But on Wednesday, the highways in northern Mississippi and parts of Tennessee and Louisiana were still thick sheets of ice. Sunshine that tried to thaw the ice and truck tires left ruts and holes in the highway ice.  

Then it froze again at night, making things even worse than before. For some reason, the Mississippi Department of Transportation did not close the highways until Wednesday afternoon. By then, it was too late. Tractor trailers and some cars were backed up for miles. People were stranded out there for as much as 24 hours. Sometimes more. All in temperatures far below freezing at night. 

 "I've been here since yesterday (Tuesday) about 4:30 p.m.  I haven't moved an inch," truck driver Lee Roy Thomas told ABC24 in Memphis Wednesday afternoon. 

A man from Wisconsin who was stranded on Interstate 22 in Mississippi told WREG: "I tried calling the Mississippi State Patrol all they would do is, there would be a bushy signal and they would hang up after four rings. I must have made half a dozen attempts at that. We were always waiting for someone to come by and check on us but nobody came by. Nobody checked on us."

One truck driver said that when trucks begin to inch forward, they slide sideways because it is so slippery. 

Drone video showed mile after mile of tractor trailer trucks just sitting there, not moving on Wednesday along Interstate 55.

I'm wondering why they didn't shut down these jammed up Interstate highways last weekend and kept them closed until the ice melted, or it could be bulldozed from the roads.  That would have caused huge disruptions, but probably not something as severe as those hundreds of people stuck out there in their vehicles. 

On Wednesday, Mississippi Department of Transportation finally did close down parts of Interstate 55 and Interstate 22 so ice could be cleared from the roads. Hopefully enough so that vehicles could get through reasonably enough.

MDOT also sent in plows Wednesday afternoon, but warned that any ice the sun melted during the day would freeze again at night. The National Guard and more MDOT trucks have been brought in to help clear the highways. However, as the sun set Wednesday, the two major interstates remained at a near-standstill. 

A special weather statement from the National Weather Service office in Memphis this morning urging no travel yet. The statement said main highways remain quite dangerous and most secondary roads across much of Mississippi and Tennessee are pretty much impassable still.

Some thawing was going on in northern Mississippi today as temperatures rise into the mid-40s, but that will not be enough to melt all the ice. An intense new cold snap will drop temperatures back below freezing tonight, and no real thawing is expected until at least Monday. 

Meanwhile, troubles kept popping up in hard-hit Tennessee as well.  

Ten people have died in Tennessee so far as a result of the storm. Residents are worried about more deaths as power remains out in many areas. Those fears are heightened by the prospect of a new cold snap coming in. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the single digits Saturday night after highs only near 20 degrees. 

As of this afternoon, more than 300,000 homes and businesses in the South remain without power. That includes nearly 100,000 customers each in Tennessee and Mississippi and more than 50,000 in Louisiana. 

In Nashville, elderly and disabled residents in a 12 story apartment building have had no heat or elevators for days and are running out of food. Fire crews evacuated some of the residents from the building on Wednesday. 

Videos:

News report on the highway situation in Mississippi from ABC2  in Memphis. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Drone video shows mile and mile after mile of tractor trailer trucks just sitting on the ice along Interstate 55 in northern Mississippi. Again, click on this link, or click on the link below if it is visible.

 

 

U.S. Has Already Had Seven $1B+ Weather Disasters This Year

So fart this year, the nation has suffered seven weather
disasters costing $1 billion or more. 

If you think you've seen a lot of weather disaster coverage in this blog thingy so far this year, you're right. 

According to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, the United States has seen seven weather disasters so far this year that each cost at least $1 billion.  That's a very fast pace of disasters for so early in the year. 

Five of the disasters were tornado and severe outbreaks in the South. Another was all those floods in California over the winter and early spring. 

The seventh one surprised me.  Remember that intense, but short cold wave in early February up here in New England and other parts of the Northeast? That one cost $1.6 billion, according to NCEI. 

I knew there was damage from that cold snap, considering high winds in parts of New England cut power, which led to frozen pipes and interior water damage in many homes. Apparently, there were some timber losses here and there in Maine and elsewhere too. The rapidly falling temperatures caused water in trees to abruptly freeze and expand, splitting some trees. 

The most expensive of the disasters was a rash of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms that hit wide areas of the Southern Plains, Southeast and Ohio Valley. The cost was $4.5 billion.

Another tornado outbreak on March 31-April 1 in the South and East cost $4.3 billion. Those California floods cost $3.6 billion.  

Yet another burst of storms less than a week later caused $2.2 billion in damage. Another $1 billion or so in damages came in a severe weather outbreak on April 15,  

A steam devil on Lake Champlain during the intense Arctic
outbreak in early February. That cold wave was one
of seven weather disasters costing $1 billion or more
so far this year. 

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes tend to be the most frequent source of calamities costing $1 billion or more, On average, the U.S, sees three or four such events every year, notes the Weather Channel. 

It is worrying that we've already had five billion dollar tornado outbreaks, and the season is still fairly  young. We are in the peak of the season through this month into early June. 

Though severe weather is forecast in parts of the nation in the next few days, I don't think any of them will be super large scale.

But you never know what will happen later this month.

The pace of inflation-adjusted billion dollar weather disasters is increasing. We've had 60 such events in the past three years. 

Climate change might be one, but definitely not the only contributor to this trend. People are building and moving to vulnerable, storm-prone areas, which boost disaster costs. 

In parts of the Midwest and South, cities and suburbs continue to sprawl outward away from old downtowns, giving tornadoes many more targets to hit.  A century ago, if a tornado just missed, say, the middle of St. Louis, no biggie. It would just hit a minimal number of houses.

 Now, the same tornado would plow through suburbs packed with homes and businesses. 

 

Incredible Arctic Blast Blessedly Almost Over In Vermont

One of many large steam devils on Lake Champlain
Friday amid subzero, windy, awful conditions.

 This has easily been one of the coldest 24-hour periods in a long time. Especially yesterday afternoon and evening. t 

Thank goodness it's almost over. 

The most remarkable part of this was how cold it was during the afternoon and evening yesterday.  In the late afternoon, when temperatures should be peaking for the day, actual temperatures were in the teens to low 20s below across much of Vermont. 

Wind chills were in the 30s and 40s below region wide, with a few spots in the low 50s below.

After spending a short time freezing my fingers with video shots of the terrible conditions out there, I spend the afternoon in my St. Albans, Vermont home office, space heater switched on to max. (Resulting video from when I almost froze my fingers is at the bottom of this post)

From my perch in the office, I watched an endless parade of steam devils on Lake Champlain in the distance.  Until almost dusk, that is, when it appeared the northern end of the lake was rapidly freezing over. 

I noticed the national media had its attention on Vermont yesterday. WCAX-TV reporter Melissa Cooney provided updates to CNN Friday morning from Burlington's icy waterfront. She seemed in remarkably good cheer, given the conditions out there.  

In the weather set up we've had, with strong blasts of northwest winds, the mountain tops tend to be coldest. And windiest. The summit of Mount Mansfield has spent several hours at least in the minus 30s. It looks like the wind gauge isn't working up there, though. 

On top of Mount Washington, New Hampshire, it was unimaginably brutal. At one point last night, the actual temperature up there was 46 below, with a wind of 96 mph gusting to 127 mph. That created a wind chill of 108 below!

That 108 below is believed to be the lowest wind chill on record for anywhere in the United States. 

Back down here in the low lands, the temperature only cooled off a few more degrees from last evening. That's because the core of the cold air - the Polar Vortex - was already starting to head off to the north and east before dawn today.

That's not to say it wasn't gawd awful bad out there this morning. Everyone in the valleys was in the mid teens to mid 20s below zero, in line with forecasts that been in place for days. It felt much better than yesterday, though, when I headed out, because the wind wasn't blowing so much. 

  We probably won't set any record lows in Vermont, though. The record low in Burlington today is 26 below, and the temperature had been hovering at 15 below for a few hours there as of 6 a.m.  Montpelier's record low today is 21 below, and they were around 13 below early this morning. And St. Johnsbury? Fughettabout! Their  record low on today's date is 32 below, and they were at least ten degrees warmer than that just before dawn today. 

However, record lows were set in southern New England, including at Boston, Providence and Worcester. Boston's low of 10 below is the coldest that city has experienced since 1957.

The fact  that our Polar Vortex is on its way out means - onward and upward!!

Temperatures got to work rising soon after the sun came up.  The wind is still stiff, but lighter than it was yesterday. The wind will continue to diminish. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington will very likely allow the wind chill warning to expire at 1 p.m. today.

By mid to late afternoon, almost everybody in Vermont will see temperatures above zero. Barely above, but above nonetheless.

Overnight tonight, temperatures will actually rise, not fall, and should be in the upper single numbers and teens above zero by dawn.  However, especially in the Champlain Valley, it will "warm up cold" as strong south winds add a wind chill bite to the air during the morning. 

However, by mid to late afternoon, many of us will hear the drip, drip, drip of water from the icicles hanging from the eaves of our houses. Yes, most of the warmer valleys will actually above freezing.

The Great, Brief Cold Shot of '23 will be over.

Video. Scenes of the Friday's insane chill around Burlington and South Burlington. Mostly of the steaming Lake Champlain, but other shots of people who did not look happy with the chill

Click on this link to view or if you see the image below, you can click on that to watch as well:

Just Some Of The Examples Of Wild Weather In U.S.

Virtually all of the nation east of a Portland, Oregon -
El Paso, Texas line is under wind chill, or storm 
alerts as of this afternoon. The huge red area in the
northern Plains is an immense blizzard warning.
Pink is winter storm warnings. The vast majority
of the blue shadings are wind chill alerts 

The long-anticipated horribly cold weather and winter storm was ramping up to full throttle in the United States this afternoon, and it will only get worse. And spread.  

So far, three deaths have been attributed to the storm, originating from vehicle crashes on icy highways in Kansas and Oklahoma. 

That toll will surely rise as dangerous conditions worsen and cover more territory. 

Various dangerous situations have already been cropping up. For instance, about 100 people were stranded in cars amid a blizzard and scary wind chills on Interstate 90 between Rapid City and Wall, South Dakota. 

The wind chill there during this whiteout was in the minus 40s below zero. 

As of 2:15 p.m. early afternoon, more than 1,900 flights in the United States were canceled and nearly 4,800 were delayed, according to flightaware.com

That number, not surprisingly, has been rising all day. Not only from cumulative effects but the fact the bad weather was quickly spreading. 

When the Arctic cold front hit any particular location, people living there sure knew it. 

When the cold front arrived in Denver, it was powerful enough to create a haboob (dust storm). The temperature fell from 41 degrees to 5 degrees in just one hour. The temperature fell 61 degrees between 2 p.m. and midnight in Denver  

The temperature ultimately ended up at 24 below in Denver Thursday morning, the second coldest December temperature on record in the Mile High City. 

Down in Amarillo, the temperature fell from 42 degrees to 11 degrees in just an hour.

Cheyenne, Wyoming was even more impressive. The temperature there fell by 32 degrees in just nine minutes when the cold front blustered through yesterday. 

Meanwhile, in Casper, Wyoming sank to 42 below zero, it's coldest temperature for any date on record. Data for Casper goes back to 1939.

Further east, things weren't really that bad in Chicago until about 11 a.m. local time today. Then, the front arrived, the temperature plunged snow broke out and the wind picked up. It'll keep deteriorating out there the rest of the day and night. 

Grocery and hardware stores, liquor outlets and cannabis distributors in Chicago reported huge crowds of people stocking up before the storm arrived, reports the Chicago Tribune.

Buffalo, New York often gets buried in lake effect snow, but it rarely rises to the level of full blown blizzard because the winds during these things aren't strong enough to qualify. 

Not this time. 

It's raining in Buffalo, now. But starting tomorrow morning, it's a completely new reality. An ugly one. Buffalo is forecasting 37 inches of snow, winds gusting to 65 mph and wind chills going way below zero. I can't imagine how tall the snow drifts will be when all that is said and done. 

Winter storms usually don't warrant a presidential briefing, but President Joe Biden was filled in on the chaos today from the National Weather Service."This is really a very serious weather alert here," Biden told reporters after the briefing. "This is not a snow day when you were a kid. This is serious stuff."

So far, temperatures in at least 18 states have dipped below zero, and that's not including the wind chill. That number will go up.

There is light at the end of the tunnel. This huge winter blast won't last all that long. Long forecasters indicate that virtually the entire Lower 48 will be bathed in at least slightly above normal temperatures within a week. 

 

Friday Storm Looks Increasingly Dangerous For Vermont - And Large Swaths Of Nation

If anything, the forecast map for Friday issued
early this morning, gives the expected storm
a more powerful look that previous forecasts.

 All eyes continue to be on that developing Arctic blast and giant storm that will affect most of the United States this week with often very dangerous weather. 

Vermont remains one of many states in the bullseye of this system. 

This will be a pretty memorable storm for much of the nation. This won't be the coldest blast of Arctic air ever. But we still expect some record lows. 

What makes this developing situation such a hazard is the combination of strong winds over a huge area, combined with snow to the west and heavy rain to the east. 

Strong to damaging winds are possible just about everywhere in the United States from the Mississippi River east, and in much of Ontario and Quebec.

As of this morning, some of the ingredients that will lead to this storm blowing up in the middle of the nation are already screwing around with things in Washington State and in British Columbia. 

Snow is causing some big flight delays in Vancouver.  Travel is also hampered by snow in and near Seattle. These problems will only spread as the week goes on.

Wind chill alerts for the upcoming Arctic blast now extend from Montana and Alabama, and those alerts will only expand over the next couple of days. Big swaths of the Midwest are under a winter storm watch, and a blizzard is likely in many of these areas by Thursday. 

National Weather Service meteorologists aren't mincing words with this storm:  In the Minneapolis NWS forecast discussion, they wrote: "This is still looking to develop as a high end, life-threatening event." 

The National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York is also warning of destructive winds, heavy rain and then a blinding lake effect blizzard Friday into the weekend. "This intense storm is forecast to be climatologically 'off the charts'........One could certainly describe this storm system as a once in a generation type of event."

The Chicago NWS office is warning of a blizzard, widespread power outages due to powerful winds, and lakeshore flooding. Ten to 14 food waves from Lake Michigan could slam the shoreline in northwestern Indiana.

So yeah, you get the idea. This storm will screw things up for lots of people. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Here in Vermont, the hazards include a little freezing rain, a LOT of wind, a flood risk and a flash freeze. 

WIND

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, when forecasting, look at what are known as analogs. 

In other words, they look at what the forecast calls for, based on current information, and compare that to similar, real-world storms that occurred in the past.  

Roof and tree damage in Milton, Vermont, October, 2017
after a powerful windstorm. Some forecasts suggest 
the upcoming storm could be as destructive as
the one shown here. 

In their forecast discussion Monday evening, the winds with this expected storm remind National Weather Service meteorologists of either October 30, 2017 or December 10, 2010.

The October, 2017 wind storm was widespread across western Vermont, with damaging downslope winds on the western slopes of the Green Mountains extending all the way to Lake Champlain. 

That storm cut power to more than 150,000 people in Vermont, nearly a quarter of the state's population.  We saw quite a lot of power line, tree, roof and some structural damage in much of the state.

In that storm, winds gusted as high as 63 mph in Burlington and 78 mph in Wells. 

The December, 2010 storm wasn't as widespread but created some wild wind gusts on the western slopes of the Greens. Gusts exceeded 90 mph in some areas. To give you an idea of what December 1, 2010, click on this link for the scenes in Williston, Vermont during that storm. 

One slightly mitigating factor in the upcoming storm, according to the National Weather Service in South Burlington, is that an inversion layer just below summit level might deflect a bit of the wind. But the storm is forecast to be super strong, with near record low barometric pressure. So strong to damaging winds are almost inevitable.

Power outages are likely with this thing, and they might last awhile. We're still recovering from last weekend's storm.  In that case, Green Mountain Power was able to pull in crews from surrounding states to help restore power. Our snowstorm last weekend was fairly localized. It wasn't as if the entire Northeast was buried in snow.

It won't be so easy to get help restoring power from other states with this upcoming storm. They'll have their own problems to deal with. Damaging winds will hit from Minnesota to Maine and from Quebec to the Carolinas. 

FLOODING: 

This powerful storm will bring a slug of warm, wet air with it.  That'll get the snow melting pretty fast on Friday as temperatures rapidly rise to the low 50s. With such a dynamic storm, bursts of heavy rain are also inevitable. Current forecasts give us one to two inches of rain.

The following might change, but forecasts as of Tuesday put the heaviest rain in southern and southeastern Vermont, right where the deepest snow accumulated last weekend.  That could certainly spell flood trouble.

Already, forecasters are eyeing vulnerable waterways like the Mad River and Otter Creek for flooding.  Smaller streams are of course risky, too.  Forecasters will have more concise predictions for flooding as we get closer to the storm. 

FLASH FREEZE

At the onset of the storm, there might be a little freezing rain to slicken the roads for a short time, especially east of the Green Mountains, but that piece won't be a main player in this big show. 

Instead, the rain and warmth will end super abruptly sometimes later Friday, Friday evening or Friday night. A powerful cold front with this big storm will roar through. At this point, forecasts call for temperatures to fall from the low 50s to the mid and upper teens within something like four hours.

That sets up a flash freeze. All the water on the roads and sidewalks and driveways freezes in an instant. You can see how that would mess up travel. We'd also get a big blast of wind after the front from the southwest.

This wind for the most part probably won't be as strong as in the front side of the storm. But it could still be gusty enough to knock down more trees and power lines. 

Because the Arctic air behind the storm is not coming at us directly, it won't be nearly as cold in Vermont as it will be points west.  The bitter air will plunge southward into the Midwest and Gulf Coast states, then swing northeastward toward us. 

That'll give the air a chance to modify, and it will only get sort of cold up here in Vermont (Highs in the low to mid 20s, lows near 10 Saturday through Monday).  But if there's widespread power outages because of this storm, that will cause a lot of misery, and frozen pipes.

As always, changes in the forecast between now and Friday are inevitable. This does feel like kind of a gloom and doom post. As we draw nearer to the storm, things will either look as bad as they do now, or maybe less bad, who knows?

I'm going to be out of Vermont when the storm hits. Oddly, I'm a little sad I'm going to miss the excitement. 

In any event, I'll provide updates as I'm able while I'm traveling later this week. 

High Winds, Another Cold Shot And MAYBE A Nor'easter Snowstorm

A snowstorm on Monday?  Some computer models say yes,
but the forecast isn't cast in stone. Changes to this forecast
are inevitable. So it's a maybe at this point. 

 The first of two shots of bitter Arctic air was being flushed out of Vermont early this morning by at times strong southerly winds.  

Such bitter air is dense.  Plus there's still a lot of open water on Lake Champlain. The warm water helps the atmosphere mix, so that is helping pull down strong winds aloft to the surface. Those strong winds from aloft push that dense air out, and the end result is strong winds.

In the northern Champlain Valley, winds were gusting in the 40 to 50 mph range. Colchester Reef reported a gust of 53 mph. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington clocked a gust at 45 mph.  Winds are surely gusting to that level on the Lake Champlain Islands this morning. 

This is all a heads up that there might be some tree damage and scattered power outages this morning in the northern and central Champlain Valley. Although lake levels are fairly low, there could still be some shoreline erosion from waves and chunks of ice smashing ashore. The winds will diminish some this afternoon.

But there's plenty more weather action on the way. 

ARCTIC BLAST #2

The southerly winds have been clearing out the frigid air and temperatures have slowly been rising since at least midnight.  They'll top out in the 20s today, and in the 28 to 35 degree range Thursday. So we're done with the cold, right?

Absolutely wrong.

As advertised in yesterday morning's post, an intense nor'easter will form far off the coast and head northward, brushing Cape Cod perhaps before hitting Nova Scotia and Newfoundland pretty hard Friday night and Saturday. 

We won't get any real precipitation from that.  There might be a light snow Thursday from a separate, weak system, but no biggie. But that big Canadian storm will help pull down Arctic high pressure from Quebec.  That'll bring us a cold snap on par or even a bit worse than the one we just had.  Earlier thinking was this weekend cold spell wouldn't be as bad as the one we just had, but now it looks a little more intense than first though. 

Strong north winds between that big Canadian storm and the incoming high pressure will create increasingly dangerous wind chills as temperatures fall through the day Friday. At night, the breezes will continue as temperatures drop below zero.  I'm sure the National Weather Service will once again hoist wind chill alerts. 

Much like on Tuesday, Saturday's highs won't crack zero in many locations.  Saturday night at this point looks like it'll get into the teens to low 20s below zero, which is colder air than we saw yesterday. 

A DECENT STORM MONDAY?

Early Tuesday morning, indications were another nor'easter that wanted to form would be a swing and a miss, passing way offshore of New England and not affecting us here in Vermont. 

Then, one after another, computer models began to radically shift that storm's potential path westward, and now it appears a decent snowstorm could be in the cards. But we're not sure yet. 

The predictions on this storm will change, but as of now this is how the scenario seems to want to play out, at least according to some forecasts. The storm will come ashore in British Columbia, move on to Montana by Thursday night, then dive rapidly southeastward to near the Gulf of Mexico Saturday.

There it will pick up a bunch of moisture from the Gulf, drop some of that wetness as snow and ice on parts of the South Saturday night into Sunday.  Then the storm will take a turn and race northward either along or off the East Coast.  It would reach New England by Monday.

The devil is in the details.  If the storm passes moves just inland or right along the New England coast, then Vermont has a shot at a midsized snowstorm.  If the storm passes further east, then not much. 

In any event, this won't be Blizzard of the Century because the storm will be moving wicked fast. Even if we get bullseyed by snow, and that is a HUGE if, the storm won't have time to lay down much accumulation. The bottom line is: It might or might snow Monday. Stay tuned for updates. 

At this point, we need any snow we can get to prevent drought conditions from returning this spring. 

After this potential storm goes by, it should stay wintry for most of the rest of the month. 

Destructive Ice Storm In Kentucky, Arkansas As Arctic Blast Continues

Aftermath of freezing rain in Alburgh in January, 2020.
Similar scenes or worse are likely across much of 
Kentucky and surrounding areas in the next couple days 

 Back in 1970, Elvis Presley sang about the "cold Kentucky rain," but he surely didn't have to deal with what that state is facing now. 

Kentucky, along with adjacent parts of Arkansas, southeastern Missouri and northwestern Tennessee, is in the grips of a destructive ice storm.

Freezing rain is falling in those areas, and since this storm is lasting a long time, the ice is piling up and will continue to do so.  

There's going to be a lot of tree and power line damage.  Power failures will likely last days in a few spots. This, as frigid air pours into that region.  I don't envy them at all.

Of all the places in the United States suffering from the current siege of winter weather, I would nominate Kentucky as seeing the worst of it. 

After the waves of freezing rain and sleet finally end for a time by Friday, temperatures will stay mostly  below freezing in Kentucky and surrounding areas through early next week, which is unusual for them.

Two more storms, one on Sunday and the other Tuesday, promise to bring more freezing rain and snow to the same areas. It's going to be a long lasting mess there, for sure. 

Obviously, Kentucky and environs won't be the only places dealing with winter weather. 

Winter storm warnings and advisories extend from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic states as that battle line between the Arctic air to the north and warmer stuff to the south continues to dump mixed precipitation and snow along that broad line. 

Deep cold will continue over the northern and central Plains, parts of the Midwest and around the Great Lakes for several more days.  If anything, it will get worse as we head into the weekend in places like Minnesota and North Dakota.  Some areas will get into the 40s below zero. 

For perspective, this won't be a historic cold wave by any means. There have certainly been much worse ones in the United States. But this winter was mild until a week or two ago. For the Lower 48, January, 2021 was tied for the ninth warmest on record, and all of the past ten Januaries have been at least a little warmer than average. So Americans are no longer used to winter weather like this. 

The Arctic high pressure centered in the northern Plains is suppressing the storminess south, which is why places like Kentucky are having so much trouble with ice and snow. 

As we get into the weekend, the cold will force its way southward toward Texas, which would help curve the jet stream somewhat more in a southwest to northeast direction along the East Coast. 

This could help storms move further north Sunday and again on Tuesday.  Freezing rain and snow by Sunday could get all the way up into New Jersey and the New York City area, so they have to deal with more winter weather. 

 A couple inches of additional fluff overnight in St. Albans, 
Vermont. Will storms come far enough north early next
week to bring more snow to Vermont? Nobody is sure. 

For us here in Vermont, the forecasting computer models are still all over the place for Sunday onward. 

There's a chance we could get some accumulating snow Sunday and Tuesday, but there's also a possibility all that weather could pass by to our south and east.  So who knows?

Here in northwestern Vermont, we did receive another inch or two of fluff last night. With light winds, and sticking to every tree branch for now and looks beautiful.  

It's not exactly super warm out there, and temperatures are still forecast to go below zero at night later this week and the weekend. If you want to go out and enjoy the snow, you'll want to dress for it