Montreal, Quebec City Endured Ugly Ice Storm While Warm Thaw Continued South Of The Border

While rather warm temperatures continued Wednesday
south of the border, Montreal and other areas of 
Quebec endured a day and evening long ice storm.

While places south of the border were basking in relative warmth Wednesday, Quebec was enduring an ice storm. 

Temperatures remained solidly below freezing in Montreal as freezing rain fell all day into the night. 

Even toward midnight, when temperatures in northwestern Vermont soared into the low 60s, Montreal remained stubbornly at 30 degrees, or minus 1 Celsius.

The result in Quebec was widespread travel trouble, closed schools and businesses and power outages.  Among the schools closes were Concordia and McGill universities. 

As of around 9:15 a.m. Thursday more than 212,000 homes and businesses were still without power in Quebec. The number of outages was down to about 65,000 by 4 p.m. today. 

Dozens of flights were canceled in Montreal and Quebec City. 

A similar but worse ice storm hit in April 2023. While trees collapsed under the weight of ice and power flickered out throughout Montreal and other areas of Quebec, areas just south of the Canadian border had thunderstorms and temperatures in the 40s on that occasion. 

So that's twice in three years northern Vermont just barely dodged very, very icy bullets  

Blizzard of '26 Peaking This Morning; Southeast New England Hardest Hit

Satellite view this morning of the extreme nor'easter creating
the northeast blizzard. Note the eye-like feature of the
storm center, the cold front extending down through the
Bahamas and the bumpy look to the clouds in
southeast New England, which indicates very heavy snow

As expected the Blizzard of '26 raged all night and is still going strong. 

The only major change is that it made a slight jog to the south, so the northern fringes of the storm won't be as snowy as first thought. That affects us here in Vermont, but we were never going to get the brunt of this thing anyway. 

More on the Vermont forecast further down in this post. 

Southeastern New England and Long Island, New York seem to be the hardest hit places. Again, that was expected, but it's literally cold comfort to the people who live there. Or anywhere else affected by the blizzard.

As of 7:30 or so this morning, more tham 5,600 flights had been canceled today, according to FlightAware.com

Also as of 7:30 this morning, about 463,000 homes and businesses were without power in the Northeast. That number will certainly rise as the storm continues to rage. 

This is still obviously a developing story and there will be much more. But let's break what we've got so far down by regions.

New York/New Jersey/Southern Connecticut

Montauk Point in eastern Long Island reported a wind gust of 84 mph. Stony Brook, Long Island peaked at 74 mph. Many gusts in the New York, metro area and New Jersey were in the 55 to 65 mph range.

Through 7 a.m. Quague New York, on Long Island had 23.5 inches of new snow. Islip, Long Island reported 22 inches of new snow. New London, Connecticut had 17 inches and the Bronx had 15 inches 20. Central Park also reported 15 inches of snow, the most in a single storm since 17.4 inches in 2021. It was still snowing as of 7:15 a.m, so Central Park will likely go over that 2021 total

 There were many reports of 12 to 16 inches in New Jers3ey. It was still snowing at 7 a.m., so those totals will go up. 

So far, about 126,000 customers had lost power in New Jersey and 21,000 or so in New York. 

We're still awaiting word on how severe coastal flooding has been. I did see some video of water entering streets in Atlantic City, New Jersey.  I'm shore there is at the very least beach erosion on the Jersey Shore.

The snow should stay intense in this region until around mid-morning, when it should begin to tape off, west to east. The snow should move out entirely this afternoon, except maybe in central and eastern Long Island. Winds will stay strong and gusty, so the snow will keep blowing around.

Travel bans and states of emergency remain in effect today. 

New England Except Connecticut

Screen shot of WBZ-TV meteorologist Jacob Wycoff
enduring the blizzard blasting through 
Marshfield, Massachusetts this morning. 

The blizzard in southern and eastern New England was absolutely raging as of 8 a.m. today and the region has quite a few hours to go before it all ends.

Large areas of Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts had whiteout conditions. In addition to the heavy snow, wind gusts in the 50 to 65 mph range w4re common. 

As of 7:15 a.m, 20.4 inches of snow had piled up in Exeter, Rhode Island. South Kingston, Rhode Island had 19 inches. As those reports came in, the heaviest snowfall was covering almost all of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts from about Boston south. 

Snowfall rates of three inches per hour in spots should continue through the morning. Eastern New England should have additional accumulations this afternoon. I'm sure some towns will report 30 or more inches of snow. 

Hourly weather reports from places that still had power were insane. At 8 a.m. Hyannis, Massachusetts reported heavy snow with winds gusting to 69 mph. Nantucket was gusting to 70 mph. Boston at 8 a.m. was reporting heavy snow with north winds at 38 mph gusting to 52 mph. The weather in Providence, Rhode Island was almost identical to Boston, except Providence was gusting to 63 mph .

The snow was pretty wet and heavy, especially south and east of a Boston to Providence line. What will amount to 1 to 2 feet of wet cement style snow propelled by wind gusts to near hurricane force in an area that is both fairly heavily populated and heavily forested means big trouble. 

I'm sure trees and power lines are being absolutely mowed down as I write this. Already, as of 8 a.m., 172,000 Massachusetts homes and businesses were without power and that number was noticeably rising. 

In some areas, residents have been warned that it could take day before power is restored. And while the blizzard rages, nobody can go out and start repairs. It's just too dangerous. 

Live video from Plymouth , Massachusetts showed whiteout conditions and powerful winds. The wet snow driven by those winds appear to have utility poles leaning ominously in some areas of Plymouth. There were still a surprising number of cars o the roads, though.  

On top of everything else, coastal flooding is likely from this all along the New England coast up into Maine.  

VERMONT EFFECTS

That slight jog southward in the path of this giant nor'easter is ensuring that the Green Mountain States is escaping with minor effects.

The storm is still far enough north to keep the winter storm warning going for Bennington and Rutland  counties. Even so, total snow amounts in southernmost Vermont have been cut back a little to 4 to 8 inches.

The National Weather Service have dropped winter weather advisories in Rutland and Windsor counties, as accumulations there will fall short of the 3 to 6 inches that had been predicted yesterday. tw

The rest of Vermont could still see an inch or two of snow, with little or nothing in the Champlain Valley. 

Honestly, that's OK. Most of Vermont is deep in snow, so we didn't need the disruption of a huge blizzard. I'll take today's blustery, cloudy weather with a bit of gratitude. 

The nor'easter will provide us with cold, stiff north winds gusting to 30 mph, so open areas could see a  few problems with blowing snow.

We'll really feel the cold air in the wake of the nor'easter tonight through tomorrow night with lows in the single digits and highs Tuesday barely making it to 20 if that in many areas.

A small system will probably throw a little snow at us Wednesday. Some forecasts had called for a more substantial snowfall this coming Friday, but that's definitely looking less likely. 

No Power, More Deaths Sea Tragedy, Cleanup Woes In Wake Of Two Winter Storms

The remains of four houses the collapsed into the sea in
Buxton, Outer Cape, North Carolina over the weekend and
today from the nor'easter that battered the state. 
Image from The Island Free Press/Facebook

 For once, there are no major winter storms hitting the United States today. 

But the two whoppers that slammed the nation over the past two weeks are still having their effects. Sometimes in deadly and dangerous ways. We have some examples as this is still an ongoing story. 

Sadly, the death toll continues to increase. In Mississippi, Gov. Tate Reeves has confirmed 23 deaths in his state associated with the January 25-26 ice storm. In Kentucky, Gov. Andy Beshear on Monday morning said that state's death toll had risen to 16. 

As of this morning, nearly 50,000 Mississippi homes and businesses remained without power as of this morning. More than 25,000 customers still had no power in Tennessee.  As of this weekend, pretty much the entire town of Holly Springs, Mississippi was without power, and most roads were too icy to travel on safely. 

In North Carolina, four homes have now collapsed into the waves of the Outer Banks from the snowy, windy nor'easter that hit over the weekend. 

We mentioned here one of those houses collapsed early Sunday morning. But since then, another house went down Sunday night and two more fell in this morning, the Island Free Press reported. 

The storm has departed North Carolina, but the vulnerable homes were weakened by battering waves over the weekend and large swells are still being generated on the Outer Banks from the storm. 

A total of 20 homes in Buxton and Rodanthe, North Carolina have fallen into the ocean since September.

The rest of the Carolinas are cleaning up from the massive snowfall. It was wild that the whole state of North Carolina was blasted. There was a dry spot in the middle of the state that "only" got three to six inches. But the coastline, the southeast corner, the west and mountains all saw reports of at least a foot of snow.

Fresh snow cover meant clear skies and calm winds in North Carolina meant temperatures fell to incredibly low levels this morning. It got as cold as 5 above in the town of Kinston, not far from New Bern. Most places in eastern North Carolina were in the upper single numbers and teens this morning. 

Aside from a small amount of mixed precipitation expected Wednesday night, thawing is expected to set in across the Southeast, which would hopefully melt the snow and ice off the streets by the end of the week.

Elsewhere, amid rough seas off of New England, a 72-foot fishing boat called the Lily Jean sank offshore off Cape Ann, claiming seven lives. One of those who passed away had Vermont connections. Jada Samitt, a recent graduate of the University of Vermont was on board as a fisheries observer from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

This tragedy sounds a lot like the famous account of a ship disaster in "The Perfect Storm.'

The Lily Jean was in a 2012 episode of the History Channel show "Nor'Easter Men."

In the Northeast, the cold has been relenting. Rivers, harbors and bays are frozen. Water mains and pipes have been bursting. And hypothermia is killing people. In Pittsburgh, numerous people have been seen on the city's frozen three main rivers, despite the fact that the ice is on top of flowing water. That makes venturing onto the ice especially dangerous.

In New York City alone, 16 people have died outside in the cold, Mayor Zoran Mamdani said. It appears 13 of the deaths were due to the cold and the other three were overdoses. 

New York got one slight bit of relief today as the temperature rose to slightly above freezing for the first time since January 23.  However, a new, intensely cold Arctic blast is set to invade the Northeast at the end of the week and this upcoming weekend.  

Hundreds Of Trucks And Cars Stuck On Ice-Locked Mississippi Interstate Amid Widespread Southern Ice Storm Power Outages

Missouri Department of Transportation traffic cam image
from this afternoon shows I-269 in the northern part of
the state still covered in ice and truck traffic
still backed up of miles. This nearly four days
after the freezing rain stopped falling. 

The Great Ice Storm  of 2026 in the southern United States continues to wreak havoc, days after the icy rains and snow ended. 

There's been dozens of deaths associated by the storm. By one count, 111 people have perished from either direct or indirect effects of the storm and cold wave. causes directly and directly connected to the storm and cold weather.  

The trouble now is it so far not warmed up after freezing rain stopped falling. Though some of the ice has melted from all those sagging trees, many road and highways contain thick, stubborn layers of ice. 

This includes major routes like Interstate 22 and Interstate 55, along with other main roads across northern Mississippi.

The freezing rain might have ended by this past Sunday night. But on Wednesday, the highways in northern Mississippi and parts of Tennessee and Louisiana were still thick sheets of ice. Sunshine that tried to thaw the ice and truck tires left ruts and holes in the highway ice.  

Then it froze again at night, making things even worse than before. For some reason, the Mississippi Department of Transportation did not close the highways until Wednesday afternoon. By then, it was too late. Tractor trailers and some cars were backed up for miles. People were stranded out there for as much as 24 hours. Sometimes more. All in temperatures far below freezing at night. 

 "I've been here since yesterday (Tuesday) about 4:30 p.m.  I haven't moved an inch," truck driver Lee Roy Thomas told ABC24 in Memphis Wednesday afternoon. 

A man from Wisconsin who was stranded on Interstate 22 in Mississippi told WREG: "I tried calling the Mississippi State Patrol all they would do is, there would be a bushy signal and they would hang up after four rings. I must have made half a dozen attempts at that. We were always waiting for someone to come by and check on us but nobody came by. Nobody checked on us."

One truck driver said that when trucks begin to inch forward, they slide sideways because it is so slippery. 

Drone video showed mile after mile of tractor trailer trucks just sitting there, not moving on Wednesday along Interstate 55.

I'm wondering why they didn't shut down these jammed up Interstate highways last weekend and kept them closed until the ice melted, or it could be bulldozed from the roads.  That would have caused huge disruptions, but probably not something as severe as those hundreds of people stuck out there in their vehicles. 

On Wednesday, Mississippi Department of Transportation finally did close down parts of Interstate 55 and Interstate 22 so ice could be cleared from the roads. Hopefully enough so that vehicles could get through reasonably enough.

MDOT also sent in plows Wednesday afternoon, but warned that any ice the sun melted during the day would freeze again at night. The National Guard and more MDOT trucks have been brought in to help clear the highways. However, as the sun set Wednesday, the two major interstates remained at a near-standstill. 

A special weather statement from the National Weather Service office in Memphis this morning urging no travel yet. The statement said main highways remain quite dangerous and most secondary roads across much of Mississippi and Tennessee are pretty much impassable still.

Some thawing was going on in northern Mississippi today as temperatures rise into the mid-40s, but that will not be enough to melt all the ice. An intense new cold snap will drop temperatures back below freezing tonight, and no real thawing is expected until at least Monday. 

Meanwhile, troubles kept popping up in hard-hit Tennessee as well.  

Ten people have died in Tennessee so far as a result of the storm. Residents are worried about more deaths as power remains out in many areas. Those fears are heightened by the prospect of a new cold snap coming in. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the single digits Saturday night after highs only near 20 degrees. 

As of this afternoon, more than 300,000 homes and businesses in the South remain without power. That includes nearly 100,000 customers each in Tennessee and Mississippi and more than 50,000 in Louisiana. 

In Nashville, elderly and disabled residents in a 12 story apartment building have had no heat or elevators for days and are running out of food. Fire crews evacuated some of the residents from the building on Wednesday. 

Videos:

News report on the highway situation in Mississippi from ABC2  in Memphis. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Drone video shows mile and mile after mile of tractor trailer trucks just sitting on the ice along Interstate 55 in northern Mississippi. Again, click on this link, or click on the link below if it is visible.

 

 

Deadly U.S. Winter Storm Winding Down; Cleanup To Take Weeks In Some Areas

Road blocked by fallen trees in Nashville.
From Meteorologist Tyler Barker, via Facebook

The enormous, deadly winter storm that has been thrashing the United States since Friday is finally on its way out,  swiping New England today with lingering snows before heading out to sea. 

At least 16 people have died so far, and that doesn't include seven deaths in Bangor, Maine from a plane crash. The incident happened in snowy weather, but investigators haven't yet announced whether this was due to the weather. 

I'm afraid that toll will go up as ice storm victims who will be without power for days or weeks endure frigid temperatures.

People will come down with hypothermia in frigid homes or apartments, succumb to fires or fumes due to improperly installed generators or space heaters, or they will be injured or even killed in accidents while clearing fallen trees and branches. 

This will surely be an incredibly expensive storm, too. I expect total damage will make this the first weather disaster of 2026 to cause more than $1 billion in losses.

As of noon today, at least 776,000 homes and businesses were still without power in the Southeast. Most of the outages were in Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee, which were hardest hit by the ice storm. 

My social media feed this morning was full of images and videos of iced-over trees and branches snapping with a sound of a gunshot, the crashing to the ground in cacophony of shattering ice and wood crunching into the ground. 

Those expected temperatures in the ice storm zone are incredibly low. Extreme cold warnings extend from southern Texas to Pennsylvania. 

Some of the hardest hit towns are dealing with this incredible chill. One of the hardest hit cities, Oxford, Mississippi, is expecting a high today in the low 20s with a low tonight in the upper single numbers. Normal highs and lows this time of year in Oxford are in the low 50s and low 30s. 

Nashville was also hard hit. It's been in the teens there since 5 p.m. yesterday and won't get above that level until tomorrow. The expected low tonight in Nashville is 0 degrees. The city won't get any warmer than the low 30s through the week. 

The cold not only endangers people with the threat of hypothermia and frostbite, it also means a lot of the ice won't melt anytime soon. That means the risk of more collapsing trees and power lines, and even building damage. 

Oxford, Mississippi after the ice storm. 

Some houses and businesses have been hit by falling trees A few have succumbed to the weight of the ice.  

Several buildings and other structures have collapsed under the weight of ice along the Texas-Oklahoma border.  

A large horse barn in Hernando, Mississippi collapsed, but all the horses inside somehow managed to survive. At least one building fell down in Arkansas. 

One news crew almost got hit by a falling tree while talking about the storm with a family in Tennessee.

As in most disasters, the change in everyone's surroundings can feel surreal and shocking

In Mississippi, a WREG reporter in Oxford, Mississippi  said the air smells like pine from all the broken trees, and he has to keep his head on a swivel because of all the trees still falling, or at least threatening to. 

"It's complete devastation. It looks like a tornado went down every street. There is no safe means of travel on the roads right now," Oxford Mississippi Mayor Robyn Tannehill said. 

Speaking of tornadoes, a likely twister touched down in Geneva, in southeast Alabama, causing damage. There were also other reports of wind damage from strong thunderstorms in that part of Alabama and northwest Florida. 

Well to the north, the news was heavy snow. At least 16 states, including here in Vermont saw snow accumulations reach a foot or more. Reports of up to 22 inches of new snow came from central and eastern Massachusetts, the lower Hudson Valley and Catskills in New York, and at a couple spots in Pennsylvania

Boston ended a 1,430 day period in which they never saw a snowstorm of greater than six inches. That's their second longest snow drought in history, noted Jonathan Petralma in a YouTube video

The snowy weather extended into Canada. Toronto set a single-day record for snowfall with 23 inches.  The city has seen 34.7 inches of snow so far in January,  making this Toronto's snowiest month on record. 

Travel is still messed up today, as you might guess. More than 5,400 flights were canceled today, according to Flight Aware. This brings the total number of canceled flights to nearly 24,000 since the storm began Friday. That's the most since the Covid pandemic. 

A new nor'easter next Sunday or Monday might affect parts of the East Coast around next Sunday or Monday but it's too soon to tell if it will hit and where. Colder than normal weather is likely to continue in much of the northern and eastern United States at least into mid-February.  

Freezing Rain Nightmare Across The South, Snow In Vermont Starting Soon, Up To 2 Feet S. Greens

Ice storm damage in Oxford, Mississippi. Photo by
Desmond Nugent, via Facebook. 

The big winter storm in the U.S grinds on, pretty much peaking today in terms of snowfall, ice, power outages and other disruptions.  As I've been doing, I'll give a national overview, then, below, you'll see some snowy Vermont specifics. 

The area under the gun is huge. As of early this morning, precipitation was just tapering off in Texas, while snow was entering New England. 

As has been the case throughout this episode, freezing rain has been the worst aspect of this mess. As of around 8:30 this morning eastern time, more than 643,000 American homes and businesses were without power. 

Tennessee had the most with about 197,000 outages. The Nashville area is especially hit hard. 

In Davidson County, Tennessee, where Nashville is located, more than 65,000 homes and businesses were without power early today. That's more than 40% of the customers tracked in the area, according to CNN.

This will be one of the worst power outages the U.S. has seen in awhile. "I think this has the potential to rank up as one of the more consequential storms we've seen in the last five or six years," said Jim Robb, president of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, according to the Washington Post. 

In addition to the trees and power lines snapping under the weight of ice, many homes in the South are not built for long stretches of cold weather. Heating is inefficient in these houses, so people use more electricity, and that puts more stress on the electrical grid. 

The bulk of the freezing rain is shifting to the Carolinas and northern Georgia today. Freezing rain was already falling in places like Atlanta, Georgia, Columbia, South Carolina, and Asheville, North Carolina as of 8:30 a.m. today. 

Heavy snow was falling across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. The storm is unusually cold. As of 9 a.m., it was snowing fairly heavily in New York's Central Park and the temperature there was only 11 degrees. Washington DC was only at 16 degrees. 

In Charlottesville, Virginia, the snow had changed to freezing rain as of 9 a.m. and the temperature was only 13 degrees. It's very rare to have freezing rain with temperatures lower than the mid-20s. 

On top of all this, there's still a risk of severe thunderstorms and maybe a couple tornadoes in and near the Florida Panhandle today. 

This whole mess has completely gummed up the nation's airlines. 

The number of flights canceled Saturday ended up at 4,616, according to Flight Aware. As of 7:30 a.m. the number of flight cancellations had reached a whopping total of more than 10,200.

After the storm, roughly 110 million Americans will endure subzero cold in the coming days. If there's a fresh snowpack, nights can be much colder than they would be with little or no snow. Since Arctic air is still feeding down from Canada and there is now a huge snowpack in the U.S., the frigid air will only get worse. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The bright blue sky we had yesterday has been replaced by a dull gray as our big snowstorm comes in for a landing today. 

Burlington got down to 8 below shortly before midnight, and that's the coldest temperature we've had so far this winter, the temperatures started to slowly rise after midnight as the clouds rolled in.

Almost everybody else in Vermont started "warming up," if you can call it that after midnight. Before that started happening, Montpelier reached 15 below, St. Johnsbury hit minus 17, and Morrisville hit a frigid 20 below. Lake Eden made it to at least 26 below, which makes me wonder whether anybody in the Northeast Kingdom hit minus 30. More data should come in later to answer that question. 

The Snow

Latest snow accumulation forecast from the National
Weather Service/South Burlington. Storm totals
have increased to 18 inches or more in the 
central and southern Green Mountains. (red shading)

Overall, expected snow totals have increased some in southern Vermont and stayed roughly the same north since last night's forecast. 

Places north of Route 2, should see about a foot, with maybe a little less than that near the Canadian border.

 There's one caveat in that the initial push of heavy snow tonight might not make it as far north as thought. If that happens, snow totals north of Route 2 might go down. But for now, count on a foot or so.

Central Vermont should be in the 12 to 15 inch range. 

Much of southern Vermont should be close to 18 inches or so. Exceptions might be along the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains. Places like Rutland might "only" get a foot. 

East facing slopes of the Green Mountains, places like Ludlow, could get 18 inches to as much as two feet of snow. Even on valley floors in southeastern Vermont, there could close to two feet. Current projects for Brattleboro give them 21 inches. 

As of 8:30 a.m. radar appeared to show snow starting to move into far southern Vermont. But that was just snow beginning to fall from the clouds and evaporating in the dry air. For awhile this morning, you'll see snow pretty much covering Vermont, but none hitting the ground.

Once the snow up above moistens the air enough, then it will start snowing. I'll mention again you can watch that process happen today.   You'll see the mountain tops blur first as snow starts up there. At first, the snow will evaporate in the dry air up around three or four thousand feet in elevations. 

But the evaporating snow will moisten the air, and you will see the "blurriness" head down the slopes until it's snowing in the valleys. 

Get your supply runs done this morning. Forecasters have slightly moved up the time when the snow wills start falling. The snow should start coming down between noon and 2 p.m south and west of Interstate 89, and between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. elsewhere. Way up in the Northeast Kingdom it could hold off until  5 .. 

The initial burst of snow will come in hard this evening, especially in central and southern Vermont. Snowfall rates could go up to an inch or more an hour. 

According to the National Weather Service, it seems there might be a bit of a lull in the snowfall early Monday morning. By around 7 a.m., about five to eight inches of new snow will cover the ground north, while southern Vermont might have 8 to 15 inches of fresh, fluffy snow. 

Road conditions for the morning commute will not be great, so try to work at home if you can. If not, plan to spend a lot of time cleaning snow from your car and driving slowly. Since this is a fluffy snow, passing cars and trucks on the highway will really stir up the snow on ground, leaving you blinded at times on the highways. 

At this point, it appears snowfall will pick up steam again in the afternoon. It won't come down as hard as it will tonight, but it will fall heavily enough. The National Weather Service is expecting three to seven inches of new snow during the day tomorrow, give or take. If you do head into work Monday, you're going to have a tricky drive back home, too. 

The snow will finally dwindle off tomorrow night. 

AFTER THE STORM

Plenty of frigid Canadian air will be in place to keep us cold all week. Daily high temperatures should be mostly in the teens. 

Nighttime lows are forecast to be mostly in the single numbers below zero, with maybe the warmer spots staying just above zero.

But remember, we'll have a lot of fresh snow on the ground. In the past, I've been surprised by how cold it gets just after a snowstorm. I wouldn't be surprised if Vermont sees a couple nights in the teens or even 20s below zero in some spots. 

I'm also not seeing any signs of milder weather at least through mid-February. 

We won't see much additional snow for awhile after this storm goes by, either. Maybe just scattered light snow showers occasionally during the next 10 days or so as weak disturbance keep coming through to reinforce the cold air. 

Through yesterday, Burlington has had 38 inches of snow so far this season. That's about four inches behind where we should be this time of year. This storm will put us ahead of normal, but we might end up falling behind again if forecasts for a lack of additional storms comes true. 

 Before the upcoming storm, snow cover wasn't all that impressive in low and some mid elevations in Vermont. An exception is in and near the northern Green Mountains,.  Greensboro had 28 inches of snow on the ground on Saturday and Westfied had 23. It'll be interesting to see what their snow cover looks like after this storm. 

 

Saturday Evening Update: Damage In South Ramping Up In Big Winter Storm. Little Change In Vermont Snow Dump Outlook

Tree damage from freezing rain already starting to show
up in Rolling Fork, Mississippi in this video screen
grab from Meteorologist Jock Williams, via Facebook

Our big winter storm continues to plow on, with varying forms of precipitation falling as of late this afternoon from New Mexico to North Carolina. 

At least 22 states are now under states of emergency due to the storm. About 55 percent of the nation's population, or 190 million people are under weather alerts related to this mess. These warnings and advisories cover 37 states, including here in Vermont. 

Power outages continued to increase through the day, and it will get a lot worse tonight and tomorrow. As of 5 p.m. eastern time, more than 56,000 homes and businesses were without power in Texas. The outages in Louisiana were nearing 48,000

Flight Aware was showing almost 4,300 flights canceled today, and at least 9,200 canceled tomorrow. for a total of about 15,000.

 The previous worst day in the past year for canceled flights was on November 9, when 1,900 flights were scrubbed due to the U.S. government shutdown, CNN reported.

Across the winter storm area, where snow, sleet and freezing rain was falling, cities looked like ghost towns.

For instance, video from Live Storms Media showed snow and ice-covered highways aroundMemphis almost free of traffic. Most of the few vehicles on Memphis area highways were tractor trailers hauling goods to, gawd knows where.

This storm will no doubt disrupt shipping. At the very least, don't be surprised if your Amazon package is late. 

Freezing rain continues to be the biggest danger with this storm, though the heavy snow is no slouch in this either. Parts of the storm are turning out to be pretty electric, so some places in the South are dealing with thunder and lightning combined with the freezing rain and sleet. 

That state of affairs should continue into the night at least. 

An ice storm is really bad news wherever it might hit. The fact that the South is getting the bulk of the freezing rain is even worse. I've mentioned before the region is heavily forested. Because the South has infrequent winter storms, they don't cut tree limbs away from power lines as utilities in the northern United States do.  

Which means it's more likely that falling trees or branches would hit power lines in the South instead of falling harmlessly away from the wires. 

In many areas in the ice zone, the freezing rain is falling lightly. Or at least tapers off to a lighter rain at times. That's actually bad news. As Matthew Cappucci explains in the Washington Post, when a raindrop freezes, it released a teeny amount of latent heat. If it's really pouring that latent heat can add up, and could bring temperatures above freezing. Or at least bring nearby raindrops above freezing. 

A freezing sprinkle doesn't release much heat. So it adds up on trees and power lines, causing chaos. 

A new storm hazard has appeared. It looks like the systems warm front will get into the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and extreme southwest Georgia. These areas will turn briefly warm and humid overnight and part of tomorrow. That is until the storm's cold front approaches. 

These areas could see severe thunderstorms and maybe even a few tornadoes before temperatures fall sharply later tomorrow. Interestingly, the area under the tornado threat is the same are that had some very rare for them snow last Sunday

The snow and some sleet will send up slowing  travel from New Mexico to New Brunswick and beyond. In the United States, everybody in a wide band between about Roswell, New Mexico to Eastport, Maine will end up with at least six inches of snow. Many spots in this vast zone of snow will end up shoveling more than a foot of snow. In some places, sleet mixed in will make the chore especially onerous. 

As the storm closed in, panic buying continued, as people stripped grocery shelves of water, milk, bread, eggs and whatever else  people thought they needed.

"I know people want to be ready, but calm down, you don't need to buy all the toilet paper in Virginia," Kim Lee told WWBT "Some of the things I wanted to make sure I have, I do not have." 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Well, I guess we can say today was sunny for a change. It's been such a gloomy winter that any sunshine is a blessing. 

No panic buying in Vermont, apparently. The bread aisle
in a Colchester supermarket looks well stocked today. 

Even if it's near or below zero. You know it's cold when most of the cars on the highways have little piggy tails of steam coming out of their tail pipes. 

Not many people were out today, at least as far as I saw when I was out doing errands. The only knots of activity were at grocery stores. But unlike the panic buying elsewhere, the store shelves I saw seemed well stocked.  

It did manage to get above zero in Burlington this afternoon, keeping a usually long streak going. The last time Burlington had a high temperature of just 0 degrees was on January 15, 2022. The last time we had a subzero high temperature was January 6, 2018. 

Subzero high temperatures used to be quite a bit more frequent than they are now. 

As late afternoon arrived, I could see high, thin clouds on the southern horizon. That's the first sign of our storm. 

The temperature will drop like a rock for the first half of tonight as skies remain mostly clear for awhile.  It'll actually be a bit colder than earlier forecasts hinted at. The "warmer" valleys will probably make its the upper single numbers below zero. Most of Vermont will be in the teens below zero, and the Northeast Kingdom could get as low as 25 below. 

The increasing clouds late tonight will keep temperatures from really bottoming out. Readings should level off after midnight, and maybe even rise a bit toward morning. 

THE STORM

The forecast really hasn't changed much since this morning. Within 24 hours or so before a storm, the computer models can start looking at picky details.

It's looking like the initial thump of snow tomorrow evening will come down quite hard, especially in southern Vermont.  Late at night, the snow could lighten up somewhat. 

Then, during the day Monday, the storm might form a little trough or extension northwestward into Vermont. I say 'might" because meteorologists aren't entirely sure yet. But it's likely, and that would make snowfall heavier for a few to several hours near wherever it might set up.  Preliminary guesses have it setting up somewhere in central Vermont. 

This evening's updated snowfall prediction map for
Vermont and surround areas is little changed from this
morning. Source: NWS/South Burlington

Not sure, so we'll keep an eye on that. 

The forecast for total snowfall hasn't changed much. The National Weather Service is still going with 8 to 16 inches by Monday night, with locally higher amounts maybe in the southern Green Mountains. Or where and if that trough sets up for several hours somewhere in Vermont. 

The snow will still probably start tomorrow afternoon. So if you have some supplies to nab, do it in the morning. The roads will be bad from Sunday afternoon on through Monday.

 Sure, it's going to be a fluffy snow, but visibility will be poor, and some of that snow will compact into ice on the roads. 

A saving grace is it won't be all that windy during the storm, so blowing snow won't make the visibility even worse. The snow should finally peter out Monday evening. 

The upcoming week also continues to look quite chilly, but not nearly as bad as today. Still, every night in the coming week starting Monday night around the Northeast Kingdom will probably go below zero.

After this storm blows through, it still looks like very little if any snow will fall Tuesday through at least next Saturday. Or even later than that. 

 

Extreme, Dangerous Storm Now Underway In U.S.. Here In Vermont, Big Powder Dump Due

What a mess. 

Just the beginning. Freezing rain beginning to weigh
down this tree in central Texas early today. By
this evening, we should start to see widespread
tree damage and power outages due to the
ice storm in the south. At least half the people
in the U.S. are now under a winter storm warning 

As expected, rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow is falling across a huge area of the central and southern U.S. and the problems have only just begun.

As usual, I'll have Vermont specifics below, but first. the national update. Spoiler: We're getting a big storm here in the Green Mountain State, but we're a luckier than a lot of people. 

At least half of the nation's 343 million or so people will be affected by this storm. I'm not sure, but I think the area of the United States under a winter storm warning is the largest I've seen since 2011.

And for some people this will be the worst storm in at least that long. 

\The first power outages from freezing rain, snow and wind were already starting to crop up early this morning. As of 9 a.m. eastern time, nearly 36,000 people had no power in Texas. More than 4,700 people in Arkansas and 3,000 people Oklahoma were in the dark.

The number of outages across southern and central parts of the U.S. will no doubt rise exponentially today. 

Traveling is a nightmare, or soon will be in huge swaths of the nation. Airlines are scrambling. As of 7:30 a.m. today, Flight Aware tells us there were 3,568 canceled flights today in the U.S. It's worse tomorrow, with more than 6,100 flights canceled. These numbers will probably rise further.

A wide stripe of heavy snow will end up extending 1,500 miles or more, from Oklahoma to New England and on into southeast Canada.

To make matters worse, some states, most notably Michigan and Vermont, are facing road salt shortages as the storm approaches.  

If there's a bright side, it's this storm won't be as bad as the Texas deep freeze, winter storm and electrical grid  collapse in 2021 that killed nearly 250 people. And despite some sensational social media posts I've seen, it won't be as bad as the Storm of the Century in 1993. 

Still, it's bad enough. I unfortunately predict it will cause at least a few tragic deaths and perhaps cause $1 billion or more in damage before it's over. 

VERMONT COLD, STORM

Just as planned, it's annoying cold out there today. We've started the day with temperatures in the single number and teens below zero, and wind chills in the minus 20s. Henry the Weather Dog was extremely quick and efficient with his first morning trip outdoors this morning. The poor little guy ran full steam to the door when he was ready to come in. I had the same mindset. 

High temperatures, if you can call them that, should get up to near or a little below zero for most of us. The banana belt in the lower Connecticut Valley might get all the way up to five or eight above. At least the sun will be out, so, um, yay?

Increasing clouds from the approaching storm will prevent temperatures from completely bottoming out tonight. But it will be below zero for sure. The Northeast Kingdom, which is normally colder anyway, will be the last to see the clouds. That means it could flirt with 20 below overnight in some spots up thee. 

Nine extreme cold shelters are open throughout the state this weekend to homeless people who would otherwise be exposed to the dangerous wind chill outdoors. 

You're going to want to dress for today's weather, obviously. The elderly and children are at most risk from getting in trouble with the frigid weather, so really keep an eye on them. 

The Storm

Forecast snow amounts for the upcoming storm have
increased, especially in northern Vermont. Almost
everybody should see at least 10 inches of snow
A few places in southern Vermont could get
close to 20 inches. Good news is this will
be powdery snow with no ice mixed in. 

Our main story, obviously is the big winter storm and how it will affect Vermont. 

The answer is pretty greatly. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has boosted expected snow totals since their forecasts yesterday. Especially in northern Vermont.

Statewide, total accumulation from this storm are now expected to range from eight to 17 inches.  Some spots in central and southern Green Mountains could close in on 20 inches. 

If the current forecasts hold, places north of Route 2 would get a little less than a foot of snow. Central Vermont, including Burlington, Montpelier and Rutland would get about a foot or a little more than that. Places like Bennington, Brattleboro and Springfield would see maybe 15 inches. 

To nobody's surprise, the winter storm watch has been upgraded to a warning in northern Vermont. And the winter storm warning in the rest of the state is still in effect.

The snow should start in the early Sunday afternoon south of Route 4, mid-afternoon in central Vermont, and late afternoon north of Route 2.

The snow will need to overcome dry air before it reaches the ground. You'll be able to see that process tomorrow. Watch the mountains. The tops of them will look blurry at first as it starts to snow at the summits. But mid slopes and valleys will be clear as the snow evaporates on the way down in the dry air.

Gradually, the blur on top of the mountains will get lower in elevation as the air moistens. Finally, it[ll start snowing in the valleys. 

The overall forecast for the path of the storm hasn't changed since last night. The changes to the forecast in northern Vermont reflect more confidence that the good moisture from the storm will get that far north. Heck, even Montreal is expecting six inches of snow out of this. 

Usually this type of storm has bands of heavier snowfall that increase the accumulation in a few spots. That'll probably happen this time. But it's always almost impossible to know where these bands will set up ahead of time. 

The Storm's Effects

We in Vermont are a lot luckier than most other places in the path of this storm. Firstly, ski resorts, cross country centers, back country skiers and other snow lovers in Vermont are not exactly upset by this weather forecast.  It might as well be tourism dollars floating down from the sky during this storm. 

Also, unlike so much of the U.S. in this storm, we will not get any sleet or freezing rain. 

This will also be a light and fluffy snow. Ten inches of snow in an average snowstorm would yield about an inch of water.  With this storm, the snow will be so fluffy that you'd need at least 20 inches of snow to get an inch of water. 

If this storm were rain, we'd only get a half to three quarters of an inch of precipitation. 

All this means is we won't have any problems with trees falling and power lines snapping.  It'll be easier to shovel than those wet "heart attack" snows we've gotten in many snowstorms in recent years. 

There's a caveat to that, of course. This is still going to be an oddly cold storm, with temperatures mostly staying in the single numbers and teens. Shoveling snow in very cold air can increase the risk of heart attacks. 

The powdery snow will make traveling tough, especially on highways like Interstates 89 and 91. A passing semi will create a thick cloud of snow so that you won't be able to see anything around you. 

Even regular cars stir up enough snow to blank out your view. Also, this type of snow is deceptive. It will look like you're on dry pavement because the snow has blown off the road. But car tires will have compacted a little bit of that snow into black ice. That "dry pavement" could be a skating rink. 

The heaviest snow will come down Sunday night and early Monday. The drive to work Monday morning will be, well, interesting, I guess with all that snow. Try to work from home if you can. I'm guessing quite a few schools will be closed. 

The snow will turn lighter during the day Monday but probably continue at least until evening in most areas. 

You know how, in our recent warm winters we'd finally get a big snowstorm, but a thaw would arrive within a couple days to melt a lot of it away? That's not happening this time. 

The weather pattern doesn't seem to favor a lot more additional snow after this storm goes by. But the snow we'll  have on the ground is absolutely staying put for quite awhile. At this point, I see no signs of a thaw at least through the second week in February.

Monday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Everything To Freeze Up As Arctic Winds Arrive

Route 5 near Hartland today. Photo by
Isabella Belisle, via Facebook.

The freezing rain part of our storm is just about over, but we now get to look forward to all the remaining slush and water turning to hard, slippery ice again. We will also get to not-so-joyfully experience crashing temperatures, gusty winds and sharp, almost painful wind chills. 

Most places got between 0.15 to 0.25 inches of ice that coated everything outdoors. Many of us in the Champlain Valley never saw it because it changed to plain rain a little ahead of sunrise, before most of us got up. In other places, it kept going. 

The highest ice accumulation I saw was 0.5 inches in Warren, 0.4 inches in Chittenden and 0.38 inches in Cabot and Chelsea.

Vermont State Police said that from Sunday evening to 11 a.m. Monday they responded to 92 weather-related crashes across the state, three of which resulted in injuries. Of those crashes 29 of them happened on Interstate highways and the rest were on secondary roads. 

Power outages across Vermont continued to rise through the morning peaking at around 10:45 a.m today. As of 4:15 p.m or so, outages were down to only about 700, mostly in east-central Vermont.  

Overall precipitation amounts were healthy, too. Most of central and northern Vermont received between 0.75 and one inch of rain and melted ice. Far southern parts of the state saw a little over an inch. 

Since not that much snow cover melted, the water content of it really increased. It's going to be that crunchy gross stuff if you walk through it tomorrow. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Traffic cam grab showed ice still on the trees along
Interstate 89 in Brookfield. As winds increase tonight,
some of the weighted down branches might break,
spawning new power outages. 

At 3 p.m, shortly before the cold front began to press into Vermont,   it had gotten above freezing almost everywhere in Vermont, according to reports. 

There were almost definitely cold hollows east of the Green Mountains that were still below freezing. 

It was 32 degrees in Eden. Other places, like Springfield and Lyndonville, were still at 33 degrees. Most of the rest of the state was only in the mid-30s.    

Traffic camera images in a few spots showed ice still weighing down the trees. I notices it when I did spot checks on Route 302 in Topsham, Interstate 89 in Brookfield and Route 11 in Winhall.

I'm sure ice is still on trees in a lot of other places. I bring this up because the wind will get pretty noticeable as we go through the evening. By later tonight and tomorrow, a lot of us will experience gusts over 30 mph. Maybe 40 mph in a few spots. 

Those winds could knock down a few more ice-laden branches, which would trigger a few more power outages. I don't expect anything too widespread, but keep your devices charged anyway, especially if the tree are all icy outside. 

If you still have ice encasing your car, try to get out there right away and scrape it off before it gets below freezing. Waiting until it gets really cold will make the job really hard. Remember to get the ice of all of your vehicle. If not, you'll be liable for damages if a slab of ice flies off your car or  truck and hits the person in back of you on the highway. 

If you're looking for replacement snow, especially powder after this icy episode, you're pretty much out of luck. Most places will see an inch per less of snow tonight and tomorrow. For the most part, it will be just nuisance snow showers for the rest of the week. The mountains might pick ups few inches, but that's about it. 

It'll get down to 10 degrees, give or take by tomorrow morning and stay in the teens all day. 

Obviously, as noted,  any standing water or slush on your driveway, the roads, and sidewalks will harden into ice tonight and make things treacherous in spots for the foreseeable future. 

Here's why: It's going to stay cold through the upcoming weekend and probably beyond.  I'll get into how cold the week will be and why this is happening in tomorrow morning's post.  

 

Vermont Monday Morning Storm Update: Could Have Been Worse, But Still Icy/Messy. More Drama Ahead

An example of the challenge the freezing rain brought
this morning This traffic cam grab shows the pavement
on Route 125 in Ripton looking absolutely scary icy,
with trees weighed down by the ice, too. 

By 7:30 this morning, I heard the welcome thump of snow sliding off my roof here in St. Albans, Vermont. 

The told me the temperature was above freezing here, and the threat of more icing had passed. 

We're lucky the worst of this hit overnight. All roads were virtually impassable across the state at the peak of the icing late last night and in the predawn hours. 

Because the roads were so bad, all state offices were closed today. People who could work remotely were still on the job, but state officials warned that electricity and internet connectivity might be iffy. 

Overall, temperatures around dawn today were a little warmer than forecast, which is great news. Freezing rain overnight and this morning is still extensive, but not as disastrous as some forecasts last evening indicated. 

It turns out not many of us will have an half inch of ice or more breaking trees and power lines. A few places will have that, but not many. And there's plenty of trouble spots this morning. 

Let's got west to east across Vermont for a morning assessment:

Champlain Valley/Souithwest Vermont

As of 7:30 p.m. temperatures in the far southwest near Bennington were in the upper 30s, with mid 30s in the Champlain Valley. Main roads in those spots were just wet for your morning commute. But untreated surfaces like dirt roads, driveways and sidewalks were still awful. 

Try to avoid those dirt roads for awhile yet. And for gawd's sake watch your step. Here at my place in St Albans, the tree have no ice on them, but my driveway is scary as hell. 

Some places in western Vermont that are protected from the winds were still seeing freezing rain. Rutland and Middlebury were still at 32 degrees as of 7 a.m. 

Traffic cameras along Route 4 in West Rutland and Fair Haven still showed slick pavement and iced up trees as of a little bit before 8 a.m. I notice a smattering of power outages in central Rutland County. 

Central/Eastern Vermont

Traffic cam grab on Route 4 in Quechee a little
before 8 a.m. this morning looked pretty slick
Note that pine tree in the background was
sagging under the ice pretty badly. 

As expected, it's worse out there once you get to the Green Mountains and points east. A few places, like Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, were a bit above freezing before 8 a.m., many other places in this one were still at or a little below 32 degrees. 

Roads conditions on traffic cameras in these areas looked varied. Most of Interstate 91 seemed wet, with some icy areas. Some secondary roads had a mix of bare pavement and ice, and other roads looked like skating rinks

The bulk of the power outages as of 8 a.m. were close to Montpelier and in the Connecticut River Valley between Rockingham and St. Johnsbury. Nearly 3,700 homes and businesses were without power as of around 7 a.m., but that declined slightly to 3,200 or so by 7:45 a.m.  That might be a hint that the worst is behind us, fingers crossed!

REST OF TODAY

It was still raining pretty hard and steadily around Vermont as of 8 a.m. That will continue more or less for a few more hours. It looks like this morning's rain will be steadier and heavier in the southern half of the state, compared to the north. 

The rain statewide will tend to get a little more showery as we head toward late morning, and the bulk of the rain should be done by 4 p.m or so, if not earlier.   

The storm's cold front will blow through early this afternoon, changing any remaining rain to snow towards dusk.

But by then, we will have lost the deeper moisture, so we won't have much accumulation.  But by the evening commute, any water left over on the roads your driveway, your walkway will freeze, so it will continue to be dangerous underfoot.

Dustings of snow atop the ice will make it even more slick. The northern and central Green Mountains might pick up two or three inches of snow by tomorrow morning, so nothing spectacular.

Since it will be cold for the foreseeable future, you will need to be careful for the next several days, or even weeks, as the ice on untreated surfaces will remain. 

This will be a sharp return to frigid weather. Temperatures will be within a few degrees either side of 10 degrees by dawn Tuesday. Gusty winds will make it feel much colder. 

It looks like for at least the next week starting tomorrow, it will stay colder and drier than normal with only light snows. I'll get more into that in future posts, once we get past today's storm.  

Wild Vermont Weather Day Is Over; We Still Face A Few Issues With Wind, Snow Showers

View from St. Albas, of the sharp squall line
approaching from New York State shortly
before noon today. 

Well, that was quite a weather day here in Vermont, wasn't it? 

Between the damaging wind gusts. the torrents of rain, the record high temperatures, then the big temperature crash, there was a lot going on. .

WIND/POWER OUTAGES

I'll hit some of the highlights in this update, here on this (much calmer) late Friday afternoon. 

The number of customers across Vermont that lost electricity to the gales reached as high as nearly 21,700 at a little before noon. That reportedly represents a bit over 20 percent of all Vermont electricity customers

As of 5 p.m. the number of people still without electricity was still at nearly 8.500.

The wind this morning was the obvious culprit. Those high speed winds a few thousand feet aloft mixed down to the surface in some places, while it wasn't all that windy in others.

The places that did get windy really had their hats blown off. Top winds reported included 73 mph in South Lincoln and  67 mph in Pleasant Valley. That's the area between Underhill and Cambridge in the shadow of Mount Mansfield.

Other reports include 66 mph in Jay, 63 mph at the Morrisville/Stowe Airport, and in West Enosburg. Sections of some roads in Vermont closed temporarily because fallen trees and power lines were draped across them. 

Radar image of today's squall line approaching
from NewYork showed in really meant business. 

.The Green Mountain summits poked up into that layer of high speed air overhead. A gust on Mount Mansfield reached 106 mph.  Most ski areas in Vermont either shut down or had lift holds today. 

RECORD HIGHS

The big surprise today were the record highs. We knew it would be really warm, but it got pretty crazy. Burlington got up to 63 degrees,  roaring past that old record of 49 set in 1895. 

We now have no December daily record highs in the 40s. December record high in the 60s are increasing fast. Climate change again. 

Burlington's high today was a tie for eighth hottest December day on record. Pretty impressive considering the rest of the month so far has been decidedly on the cold side.

Other record highs today include, the following, with the old record in parentheses; Plattsburgh, NY, 59 (49 in 1967); Bennington, 57, (47 in 20-17); Newport, 53, (49 in 1949) and Montpelier, 53 (49 in 1949).

One piece of good news is so far, despite the midday deluge, there's been no reports of flooding.

REST OF THE STORM

Technically the storm isn't done with us yet. A brief slot of dry, rather calm air came in late this afternoon. There was even a decent sunset around Burlington. 

But as the evening goes on, you'll feel the west winds increase. All of Vermont except the Champlain Valley is still under a wind advisory.  That advisory goes until 7 a.m. Saturday and calls for peak gusts in a few spots to 50 mph. That's enough to trigger a few more power outages. Yay! 

It'll be blustery overnight in the Champlain Valley, with the strongest gusts in the 40 to 45 mph range. 

Snow showers were just beginning to make their way back into Vermont as of 5 p.m. A few of them will actually come in the form of a few raindrops in the valleys early this evening before the cold air solidly arrives overnight. 

The snow won't amount to much. Most of us will get somewhere between a few flakes and a little under an inch. But that bit of snow, combined with all that water freezing, will create icy spots on the roads overnight and Saturday morning. 

The weather pattern is still active, and I'll get into that my Saturday morning post. 

Friday Morning Storm Forecast: High Winds Are Main Worry

The updated National Weather Service forecast wind map
for today has more dark orange shading on it than
the map I posted yesterday. That means stronger 
wind gusts this morning, possibly lasting into 
the very early afternoon. 

 UPDATE: 9:30 a.m.

The high wind warning has been expanded to include the Champlain Valley.

Higher than expected temperatures will allow for better mixing with strong winds aloft. 

The temperature in Burlington by 9 a.m. was 58 degrees, definitely above projections and shattering the previous record high of 49 degrees.

Winds could gust to 60 mph between now and noon-ish.  That's when that strong squall line comes through. As of 9:30 a.m., the squall line was clearly visible on radar coming into the Adirondacks. 

Winds at 9 a.m. were already gusting to 54 mph in Bennington and 53 mph in Morrisville. Power outages across Vermont are skyrocketing, up to 3,800 or so as of 9:15 a.m. 

Batten down the hatches for the next few hours. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The big update to this morning's forecast for today is that winds look like they'll be a little stronger than we were thinking yesterday. 

That means a greater chance of power outages, tree damage, that sort of thing. 

The wind advisory that was in effect has been upgraded to a high wind warning along the spine and slopes of the Green Mountains. Between now and around 1 p.m. today, winds in the high wind warning area could gust to 60 mph. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, the wind advisory remains in effect, also until 1 p.m.  Potential peak gusts for those of us in the advisory zone could reach 55 mph, which is a little higher than the forecasts we had last evening. 

Winds a few thousand feet overhead are absolutely screaming this morning, and those winds above us will actually increase for a time later this morning. How windy it gets depends on how well those winds mix down. 

In many areas, this setup means that winds might not be so bad a good portion of the time, but every once in awhile you'll get a huge gush of wind as a mountain, or wave in the air flow grabs some of that high speed air above and brings it down on us.

As of shortly before 8 a.m. today, power outages in Vermont weren't that widespread just yet. But they were increasing pretty fast. Only about 270 customers statewide were affected as of 7 a.m. By 7:45, that figure was up to 463. The number of outages will keep rising, probably well into the thousands by noon.  

While those south winds are blowing, it will be warm for a change. Today's record high in Burlington is 49 degrees, set way back in 1895.  This is a lower record high than most days this time of year. In fact, it's the only daily record high in December that is under 50 degrees. 

Not for long! As of 7 a.m.,, Burlington had already tied that record high, and it will surely get into the 50s later this morning.

We'll have some showers around all morning, but they probable won't be that impressive. 

Until..... 

THE COLD FRONT

The main drama today will be when the cold front arrives. It's looking like there will be thin line of torrential rains and super gusty winds when it comes through. Arrival time looks like it will be between 11 a.m and noon in the Champlain Valley and down Route 7 all the way to Bennington and beyond.  It will be in the Connecticut River Valley around 1 p.m or a little after that. 

Winds will temporarily be much lighter after the front goes through. That's why the wind advisories and warnings shut down at 1 p.m. today. Pretty substantial rains will probably continue for a few hours after the front goes through. 

The flooding risk continues to look pretty low. You'll see streams gurgling pretty intensely and the state's rivers will show a rapid rise this afternoon. That's all thanks to the burst of heavy rain with the cold front and from all that snow melting so fast. 

But this episode of warmth and rain will be just a little too short to cause anything other that a few instances of minor flooding.  Predicted rainfall has actually fallen a little since yesterday. Most places should see a half inch to as much as an inch. 

Temperature will be noticeably falling too, this afternoon. But the heaviest precipitation will be over well before temperatures in the valleys drop below freezing around dark or shortly after. I don't think the evening commute will have much trouble with icy roads, unless you're going over mountain passes.

TONIGHT

Overnight, winds will ramp up again, this time from the west. We might see new wind advisories issues for tonight, especially along and east of the Green Mountains where gusts could really crank again.

The winds overnight will probably be a little less intense than those expected this morning, but enough to risk more scattered power outages and instances of tree damage.

A few snow showers will bluster through, too, but most places won't get much more than a dusting, if anything. 

SATURDAY AND BEYOND

We're in a volatile weather pattern because there's exceptionally warm air starting to build through most of the southern two thirds of the U.S., and absolutely frigid air covering most of Canada.

This can be a recipe for huge storms, but luckily, I guess, we'll have a fast west to east jet stream. That means frequent, hard to predict, fast ,moving storms and disturbance. We'll also probably have plenty o of windy days through the rest of the month. 

As each of these things go through, we could have quick bursts of warmish air, followed by bursts of winter air. This type of fast weather is really hard to predict more than a couple days in advance. Which means we're not at all sure how warm the mild bursts will be and how cold the chilly days will become. We also don't know much about the timing of these things. 

It does seem like a weak a windy system will go by to our north Sunday, possibly spreading a little snow our way. That will be mainly north and mountains. 

If we get lucky and if forecasts hold, another little zipper storm will, well, zip through Tuesday, laying down a stripe of snow, maybe one or two inches across Vermont. If that happens, we get a white Christmas after all. 

Stay tuned!