Friday Morning Storm Forecast: High Winds Are Main Worry

The updated National Weather Service forecast wind map
for today has more dark orange shading on it than
the map I posted yesterday. That means stronger 
wind gusts this morning, possibly lasting into 
the very early afternoon. 

 UPDATE: 9:30 a.m.

The high wind warning has been expanded to include the Champlain Valley.

Higher than expected temperatures will allow for better mixing with strong winds aloft. 

The temperature in Burlington by 9 a.m. was 58 degrees, definitely above projections and shattering the previous record high of 49 degrees.

Winds could gust to 60 mph between now and noon-ish.  That's when that strong squall line comes through. As of 9:30 a.m., the squall line was clearly visible on radar coming into the Adirondacks. 

Winds at 9 a.m. were already gusting to 54 mph in Bennington and 53 mph in Morrisville. Power outages across Vermont are skyrocketing, up to 3,800 or so as of 9:15 a.m. 

Batten down the hatches for the next few hours. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The big update to this morning's forecast for today is that winds look like they'll be a little stronger than we were thinking yesterday. 

That means a greater chance of power outages, tree damage, that sort of thing. 

The wind advisory that was in effect has been upgraded to a high wind warning along the spine and slopes of the Green Mountains. Between now and around 1 p.m. today, winds in the high wind warning area could gust to 60 mph. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, the wind advisory remains in effect, also until 1 p.m.  Potential peak gusts for those of us in the advisory zone could reach 55 mph, which is a little higher than the forecasts we had last evening. 

Winds a few thousand feet overhead are absolutely screaming this morning, and those winds above us will actually increase for a time later this morning. How windy it gets depends on how well those winds mix down. 

In many areas, this setup means that winds might not be so bad a good portion of the time, but every once in awhile you'll get a huge gush of wind as a mountain, or wave in the air flow grabs some of that high speed air above and brings it down on us.

As of shortly before 8 a.m. today, power outages in Vermont weren't that widespread just yet. But they were increasing pretty fast. Only about 270 customers statewide were affected as of 7 a.m. By 7:45, that figure was up to 463. The number of outages will keep rising, probably well into the thousands by noon.  

While those south winds are blowing, it will be warm for a change. Today's record high in Burlington is 49 degrees, set way back in 1895.  This is a lower record high than most days this time of year. In fact, it's the only daily record high in December that is under 50 degrees. 

Not for long! As of 7 a.m.,, Burlington had already tied that record high, and it will surely get into the 50s later this morning.

We'll have some showers around all morning, but they probable won't be that impressive. 

Until..... 

THE COLD FRONT

The main drama today will be when the cold front arrives. It's looking like there will be thin line of torrential rains and super gusty winds when it comes through. Arrival time looks like it will be between 11 a.m and noon in the Champlain Valley and down Route 7 all the way to Bennington and beyond.  It will be in the Connecticut River Valley around 1 p.m or a little after that. 

Winds will temporarily be much lighter after the front goes through. That's why the wind advisories and warnings shut down at 1 p.m. today. Pretty substantial rains will probably continue for a few hours after the front goes through. 

The flooding risk continues to look pretty low. You'll see streams gurgling pretty intensely and the state's rivers will show a rapid rise this afternoon. That's all thanks to the burst of heavy rain with the cold front and from all that snow melting so fast. 

But this episode of warmth and rain will be just a little too short to cause anything other that a few instances of minor flooding.  Predicted rainfall has actually fallen a little since yesterday. Most places should see a half inch to as much as an inch. 

Temperature will be noticeably falling too, this afternoon. But the heaviest precipitation will be over well before temperatures in the valleys drop below freezing around dark or shortly after. I don't think the evening commute will have much trouble with icy roads, unless you're going over mountain passes.

TONIGHT

Overnight, winds will ramp up again, this time from the west. We might see new wind advisories issues for tonight, especially along and east of the Green Mountains where gusts could really crank again.

The winds overnight will probably be a little less intense than those expected this morning, but enough to risk more scattered power outages and instances of tree damage.

A few snow showers will bluster through, too, but most places won't get much more than a dusting, if anything. 

SATURDAY AND BEYOND

We're in a volatile weather pattern because there's exceptionally warm air starting to build through most of the southern two thirds of the U.S., and absolutely frigid air covering most of Canada.

This can be a recipe for huge storms, but luckily, I guess, we'll have a fast west to east jet stream. That means frequent, hard to predict, fast ,moving storms and disturbance. We'll also probably have plenty o of windy days through the rest of the month. 

As each of these things go through, we could have quick bursts of warmish air, followed by bursts of winter air. This type of fast weather is really hard to predict more than a couple days in advance. Which means we're not at all sure how warm the mild bursts will be and how cold the chilly days will become. We also don't know much about the timing of these things. 

It does seem like a weak a windy system will go by to our north Sunday, possibly spreading a little snow our way. That will be mainly north and mountains. 

If we get lucky and if forecasts hold, another little zipper storm will, well, zip through Tuesday, laying down a stripe of snow, maybe one or two inches across Vermont. If that happens, we get a white Christmas after all. 

Stay tuned!