Snow Squalls To Screw Up Thursday Morning Vermont Commute, Long Cold Spell Still On Tap

Inside a St. Albans, Vermont snow squall in 2021.
At least some places in Vermont will have scenes
like this tomorrow morning 

The snow squall risk for Thursday we've been talking about all week still looks to be on schedule for tomorrow morning. 

That Arctic cold front  is expected to collide with a lake affect snow band that will be oriented southwest to northwest over northwest New York. This will at least temporarily add oomph to an already strong cold front. 

That means there's an excellent chance of snow showers and - very likely - snow squalls tomorrow morning. 

The timing of this is everything, since a lot of people will be headed to work or school when this blast of snow comes through. 

Sometime during the morning commute, this expected line of snow squalls will basically travel down Interstate 89 to Montpelier and beyond. The squalls will affect most of the rest of Vermont as well, but I'm highlighting the Interstate as it's the main travel corridor in Vermont. 

Plus, since Interstate 89 is a high speed highway, a sudden blast of near-whiteout conditions hitting fairly fast moving cars is a recipe for trouble. 

The goal might be to get to work or school before the squalls hit, or postpone travel until an hour or two after they pass. But pinning down the exact timing is tough. 

We have a general idea. As of late this afternoon, the guess is the line would hit St. Albans around 5 or 6 a.m., then make it down to Burlington and surrounding communities a little after 6 to around 7 a.m., give or take. By 9 or 10 a.m., the squalls might be somewhere in central Vermont, maybe Montpelier. 

Different computer models have different timing for the band of snow squalls. Two of the models I checked out late this afternoon has the line of snow squalls up by St. Albans at 6 a.m. Another has it between St.Albans and Burlington at that hour. Another computer model is fastest with the line, bringing it through Burlington and a little past Burlington by 6 a.m.

You'll want to listen for snow squall warnings from the National Weather Service tomorrow morning to get an idea of where they are. Snow squall warnings are very much like severe thunderstorm warnings in the summer. Each warning covers a relatively small area, like one county or parts of adjacent counties. 

Even after the potential squalls go by, we're not out of the woods. There will still be some more snow showers for awhile. Though not as intense as snow squalls, they'll still cut visibility, and strong northwest winds will blow the snow around. 

PLUNGING TEMPERATURES

NOAA's 6 to10 day outlook, issued today,
places the greatest chance of colder 
than normal temperatures right over us. 

It feels too early for this, but forget about it getting above freezing for long while. 

Perhaps even in the banana belt towns in southern Vermont and the Champlain Valley. Normal highs in Burlington are in the mid to perhaps upper 30s this time of year. 

We won't see anything like that for at least 10 days, maybe more, I think. 

The initial temperature plunge coming up tomorrow and tomorrow night will arguably be the worst of the lot. 

It'll he near 30 degrees early tomorrow before the Arctic front hits. Temperatures will plunged through the 20s and teens during the days as blustery northwest winds drop the wind chill below zero for most of us. 

It still looks like Friday morning will dawn with temperatures within a few degrees either side of zero. 

This sounds like a load of fun, doesn't it?

After a cold Friday, it'll actually warm up a little Saturday. Compared to Friday, it will be tropical heat, as we might make it into the low 30s.

Then, it's another Arctic blast for early next week. And it looks like it wants to stay nippy at least into the middle of the month. NOAA's longer range forecasts indicate the spot in the nation with the greatest chance of below normal temperatures is right here in New England.   

I'm only bringing this up to jinx it. Maybe if I tout a long range forecast like this, we'll get some unexpected warmth. Just don't bet your next paycheck,on that. 

There will be occasional chances of snow, and whatever falls would obviously stick. But unless there's some sort of surprise, I don't see any big dumps on the horizon.