Snow Squalls To Screw Up Thursday Morning Vermont Commute, Long Cold Spell Still On Tap

Inside a St. Albans, Vermont snow squall in 2021.
At least some places in Vermont will have scenes
like this tomorrow morning 

The snow squall risk for Thursday we've been talking about all week still looks to be on schedule for tomorrow morning. 

That Arctic cold front  is expected to collide with a lake affect snow band that will be oriented southwest to northwest over northwest New York. This will at least temporarily add oomph to an already strong cold front. 

That means there's an excellent chance of snow showers and - very likely - snow squalls tomorrow morning. 

The timing of this is everything, since a lot of people will be headed to work or school when this blast of snow comes through. 

Sometime during the morning commute, this expected line of snow squalls will basically travel down Interstate 89 to Montpelier and beyond. The squalls will affect most of the rest of Vermont as well, but I'm highlighting the Interstate as it's the main travel corridor in Vermont. 

Plus, since Interstate 89 is a high speed highway, a sudden blast of near-whiteout conditions hitting fairly fast moving cars is a recipe for trouble. 

The goal might be to get to work or school before the squalls hit, or postpone travel until an hour or two after they pass. But pinning down the exact timing is tough. 

We have a general idea. As of late this afternoon, the guess is the line would hit St. Albans around 5 or 6 a.m., then make it down to Burlington and surrounding communities a little after 6 to around 7 a.m., give or take. By 9 or 10 a.m., the squalls might be somewhere in central Vermont, maybe Montpelier. 

Different computer models have different timing for the band of snow squalls. Two of the models I checked out late this afternoon has the line of snow squalls up by St. Albans at 6 a.m. Another has it between St.Albans and Burlington at that hour. Another computer model is fastest with the line, bringing it through Burlington and a little past Burlington by 6 a.m.

You'll want to listen for snow squall warnings from the National Weather Service tomorrow morning to get an idea of where they are. Snow squall warnings are very much like severe thunderstorm warnings in the summer. Each warning covers a relatively small area, like one county or parts of adjacent counties. 

Even after the potential squalls go by, we're not out of the woods. There will still be some more snow showers for awhile. Though not as intense as snow squalls, they'll still cut visibility, and strong northwest winds will blow the snow around. 

PLUNGING TEMPERATURES

NOAA's 6 to10 day outlook, issued today,
places the greatest chance of colder 
than normal temperatures right over us. 

It feels too early for this, but forget about it getting above freezing for long while. 

Perhaps even in the banana belt towns in southern Vermont and the Champlain Valley. Normal highs in Burlington are in the mid to perhaps upper 30s this time of year. 

We won't see anything like that for at least 10 days, maybe more, I think. 

The initial temperature plunge coming up tomorrow and tomorrow night will arguably be the worst of the lot. 

It'll he near 30 degrees early tomorrow before the Arctic front hits. Temperatures will plunged through the 20s and teens during the days as blustery northwest winds drop the wind chill below zero for most of us. 

It still looks like Friday morning will dawn with temperatures within a few degrees either side of zero. 

This sounds like a load of fun, doesn't it?

After a cold Friday, it'll actually warm up a little Saturday. Compared to Friday, it will be tropical heat, as we might make it into the low 30s.

Then, it's another Arctic blast for early next week. And it looks like it wants to stay nippy at least into the middle of the month. NOAA's longer range forecasts indicate the spot in the nation with the greatest chance of below normal temperatures is right here in New England.   

I'm only bringing this up to jinx it. Maybe if I tout a long range forecast like this, we'll get some unexpected warmth. Just don't bet your next paycheck,on that. 

There will be occasional chances of snow, and whatever falls would obviously stick. But unless there's some sort of surprise, I don't see any big dumps on the horizon. 

Even Colder This Morning Than First Thought As Frigid Spell Unabated

A frigid Burlington dawn today in this screenshot from
the Burlington Haze Cam. That fog bank over the lake
is steam rising from still unfrozen sections of the lake.
Most of Vermont was 12 to 24 below this morning. 

 Arctic high pressure over Quebec fed the coldest air yet this chilly January into the North Country, especially into northwestern Vermont and New York State. 

The source region for the air in central Quebec was in the 30s below zero range before dawn, so it's now surprise that readings barely warmer than that showed up in parts of the North Country.

The first readings at or below 30 below in the region showed up in the cold spots in northern New York, and a few record lows were set. 

As of 6 a.m. the perennial cold spot Saranac Lake was at 30 below, breaking their record low for the date of 27 below in 2005.  Ogdensburg, New York was even a bit colder, at 33 below. Massena, New York had a record low of 29 below.

The northern Champlain Valley, north of  Burlington, can get pretty chilly in the winter, but that area is not usually as cold or colder than the Northeast Kingdom.

But dense cold air drained south out of Quebec, down the Richelieu River valley in southern Quebec down into the far northern Champlain Valley. It was 20 below in Highgate at 7 a.m, about the same in St. Albans. Plattsburgh was down to 19 below, enough for a record low for the date.

So far the coldest of the air hadn't reached Burlington, at least not to its fullest extent. Most record lows in Burlington in January are in the 20s below zero, but for some reason, super cold air has never appeared on this date in Burlington, even though it's normally the coldest week of the year. 

Today's record low is 15 below. So far, Burlington has just gotten to 12 below.

Meanwhile, the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom were at around 20 below.  Had they gotten the full force of this Quebec air, it would have been 30 below there.

Despite full sunshine, it will only get up to within a few degrees either side of zero this afternoon, setting us up for another frigid night. 

Tonight's coldest readings will probably be further east, toward the Northeast Kingdom.  This Arctic blast will be beginning to wane a bit over New York. It'll be frigid, with below zero readings there, but not as bad as this morning.

We're not done yet. It'll "warm up" this weekend to highs in the teens, with some 20s popping up Sunday.

But at least two more Arctic blasts are on the way. The one coming in for Monday doesn't look as bad as the current blast, but a lot of us will still be below zero by Monday morning. 

Another cold front swings by Tuesday, and the freezer door opens again. That second spell of frigid air Wednesday into Friday at least, at this point looks like it will probably of the same caliber we're experiencing this morning.

If that happens, expect more readings around here in the teens, 20s and maybe a few low 30s below zero.  

There might be yet another shot of Arctic air after that. 

If you don't like below zero weather and want a light at the end of the tunnel there's this: We're seeing a few signs of a pattern change in early February that would bring temperatures up somewhat. Long range forecasts are iffy, so that potential February warming isn't a promise, but more of a hope. 

We'll see! 

 

Real Winter In The Forecast For Large Swaths Of U.S.; A Little Here In Vermont, Too

Snow piles really starting to add up around my house
in St. Albans, Vermont. Another 1.6 inches last night. 

Winter has now really settled in for vast swaths of the nation, and these conditions won't let go anytime soon.  

The bitter, stormy weather is not super extreme and none of it is unprecedented. 

However, with a spate of mild winters in recent years, there's going to be millions of people who aren't quite used to what we've gotten in recent days, and what's in store for the upcoming week. 

For us Vermonters, the upcoming week looks pretty typical for winter, so we won't be shocked at all by the conditions.

We're both tough and jaded in the Green Mountain State. Details on what's in store for us are coming up.   

First, the big picture.

Arctic air has swept into the middle of the nation, as advertised, and is there for an extended spell. The cold out there will be a grind, not because it will break all time low temperatures, but because it will last and last. 

One example: The temperature went below zero in Grand Forks North Dakota yesterday and is forecast to stay continuously below zero at least through Friday. Low temperatures each night there will be in the low to mid 20s below zero. Yuck. 

In places where a lot of people live, like Chicago, it won't be as bad as North Dakota, but they'll still have to be hardy there. Close to a foot of snow is on the ground around Chicago, and temperatures won't get out of the teens there through at least Friday.

The cold is centered over the Midwest, and will stay focused there all week. That's a favorable position for sneaky storms to affect parts of the East.  

Again, nothing extreme is forecast, but winter conditions will persist in places that have grown soft in recent winters. 

One quick moving storm tonight and Sunday will lay down a swath of snow from the North Carolina mountains, then through populated areas from Virginia and Washington DC up through Boston.  This will be the area's second snowstorm in a week.  At least this one won't drop two feet of snow, as it did on parts of New Jersey and surrounding areas earlier this week 

Still, this storm will ensure winter persists. 

For instance, Central Park in New York City still had nine inches of snow left on the ground Friday from a storm earlier in the week.  Though some more melting might occur today, another five to seven inches of snow is likely Sunday. Most days there in the upcoming week will stay below freezing so the New York snow will stay put as well. 

A VERMONT WINTER

It finally feels and looks like winter in Vermont. Though we haven't had any blockbuster storms lately, we've had some pretty hefty accumulations. Typical of Vermont. We do get few decent snowstorms each winter, but most of the time we get flurried to death. An inch here, two inches there can add up.

There's more than a foot of snow on the ground now in most valley locations across northern and central Vermont. Most of southern Vermont has at least some snow  the ground in the valleys, and plenty up in the mountains. 

 

Northern Vermont, which was trending well below normal in snowfall this winter, has been catching up lately. 

Through Friday, Burlington had picked up 47 inches of snow for the season. That's just 0.4 inches below normal for the date.

Chances are Burlington will keep a pace with light snowfalls this week so that seasonal accumulations could stay close to normal through the week.  Some snow will fall somewhere in Vermont almost every day for the next week at least 

Unstable air and the remnants of lake effect snows from the Great Lakes will produce some snow showers today. No real accumulation, except maybe a couple of inches in the mountains. 

That quick hitting snowstorm hitting southern New England will pretty much miss Vermont. However a weaker storm system and cold front will dump some snow on us.  That will be good for an inch or two in most valleys, except in the far south.  Though far southern Vermont could see some snow from that fast coastal system. Mountains throughout Vermont could see a few inches of snow out of this by Monday. 

Another modest storm could bring us a few inches of fluff Tuesday. 

And there are major question marks for the end of the upcoming week or next weekend.  I've seen and heard all kinds of stories for that time frame, ranging from dry and bitter cold, to snow and moderate temperatures, ad even hints of mixed precipitation. 

In other words, expect weather in about a week, but exactly which kind is anybody's guess.