Wednesday Morning Vermont Winter Weather Update: Snow Delay Helps Morning Commute, Still A Ski Area Storm

This morning's updated National Weather Service 
snow forecast map. Biggest winners are 
the Green Mountains, as usual. Southern Green
Mountains look especially lucky in the 
snow department. Champlain Valley to
escape with just a couple inches. 

As we wake up here in Vermont this Wednesday morning, there are, as always, some changes to the forecast for the latest storm. 

First, we'll quickly clean up some updates on the frigid morning yesterday. 

It turns out the coldest spot in the Lower 48 of the United States yesterday was right here in Vermont. East Haven in the Northeast Kingdom took the honors with a low of 27 below. 

In Burlington, the low of minus 7 in   was the chilliest December temperature since 2017. Burlington has had three days this month already that have been below zero. There have only been seven years since 1884 with that many subzero days by December 9. The last time it happened was in 1989. 

TODAY'S SNOW

Here are the changes to the forecast based on new information since last evening:

Later Onset.

 The biggest and best change is the beginning of the snow is delayed. Much of this morning's commute in most of the state will be OK and better than expected. 

Some light snow was starting here a there as of 7 a.m. today, so there might be some minor issues on the roads. But the heaviest snow should come through between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m., says the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

Advisory Expanded

The winter weather advisory that covered most of Vermont outside the Champlain and lower Connecticut Valley has been extended to cover far northern Vermont near the Canadian border.  That's not at all a surprise, as that area has been forecast to get quite a bit of snow with this storm for awhile now. 

People who are under the winter weather advisory can expect three to seven inches of snow by 1 a.m. Thursday. 

Valleys "Cheated"

This isn't so much a change in the forecast but rather new information to reinforce the forecast ideas the National Weather Service had yesterday.

Most of the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut Valley are only going to get a couple inches of snow out of this.  Westerly winds aloft will make winds blow down the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains today. Air blowing downhill tends to dry the air out, so that creates  less snow.

Also, warmer air moving in this afternoon will make temperatures pop up to a little above freezing in those valleys. That will tend to settle the snow and maybe make whatever snow is falling mix with a raindrop or two. Finally, a push of dry air entrained into this storm will help shut off most of  the snow in the Champlain Valley later this afternoon. 

Southern Vermont Winter Storm

Another change to the forecast is the winter weather advisory in Vermont's two southernmost counties has been upgraded to a full-blown winter storm warning. I don't think that warning really applies to low elevation towns like Bennington and Brattleboro. Those communities should only see maybe a couple inches. 

But the National Weather Service office in Albany, New York, which covers those two southern counties in Vermont, - Bennington and Windham -  says enough moisture is available to dump six to 12 inches of snow today and this evening across higher elevation of the Greens, above 1,000 feet. I'm sure steep, curvy Route 9 over the hills between Bennington and Brattleboro will be exciting today. 

The southern Vermont ski areas are sharing in the bounty of snow this time, compared to their northern counterparts. 

THURSDAY AND ONWARD

Most of the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut Valley can expect not much more than flurries tomorrow, but the mountains will keep piling up the snow.

Tomorrow will be the famous upslope snows we get behind storm systems, but with a bit of a twist.

Often, the flow of wind from the west and northwest doesn't really make it over the Green Mountains easily. The air rises and the moisture in the air condenses into snow that falls on the summits and western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Tomorrow, in general, that air will of course rise up the western slopes of the Greens, but won't actually get blocked by the mountains so much. That means the moisture condensing into snow will fall on the summits and mostly east of the northern and central Green Mountains.

This mostly means the Northeast Kingdom, and towns immediately to the east of the Greens, like Stowe, might do fairly well with this. 

The weekend is looking chilly. Both Saturday and Sunday might feature scattered light snow, but the main story will be another shot of Arctic cold arriving Sunday. I'll have more on that in future updates. v