Wednesday Morning Vermont Winter Weather Update: Snow Delay Helps Morning Commute, Still A Ski Area Storm

This morning's updated National Weather Service 
snow forecast map. Biggest winners are 
the Green Mountains, as usual. Southern Green
Mountains look especially lucky in the 
snow department. Champlain Valley to
escape with just a couple inches. 

As we wake up here in Vermont this Wednesday morning, there are, as always, some changes to the forecast for the latest storm. 

First, we'll quickly clean up some updates on the frigid morning yesterday. 

It turns out the coldest spot in the Lower 48 of the United States yesterday was right here in Vermont. East Haven in the Northeast Kingdom took the honors with a low of 27 below. 

In Burlington, the low of minus 7 in   was the chilliest December temperature since 2017. Burlington has had three days this month already that have been below zero. There have only been seven years since 1884 with that many subzero days by December 9. The last time it happened was in 1989. 

TODAY'S SNOW

Here are the changes to the forecast based on new information since last evening:

Later Onset.

 The biggest and best change is the beginning of the snow is delayed. Much of this morning's commute in most of the state will be OK and better than expected. 

Some light snow was starting here a there as of 7 a.m. today, so there might be some minor issues on the roads. But the heaviest snow should come through between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m., says the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

Advisory Expanded

The winter weather advisory that covered most of Vermont outside the Champlain and lower Connecticut Valley has been extended to cover far northern Vermont near the Canadian border.  That's not at all a surprise, as that area has been forecast to get quite a bit of snow with this storm for awhile now. 

People who are under the winter weather advisory can expect three to seven inches of snow by 1 a.m. Thursday. 

Valleys "Cheated"

This isn't so much a change in the forecast but rather new information to reinforce the forecast ideas the National Weather Service had yesterday.

Most of the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut Valley are only going to get a couple inches of snow out of this.  Westerly winds aloft will make winds blow down the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains today. Air blowing downhill tends to dry the air out, so that creates  less snow.

Also, warmer air moving in this afternoon will make temperatures pop up to a little above freezing in those valleys. That will tend to settle the snow and maybe make whatever snow is falling mix with a raindrop or two. Finally, a push of dry air entrained into this storm will help shut off most of  the snow in the Champlain Valley later this afternoon. 

Southern Vermont Winter Storm

Another change to the forecast is the winter weather advisory in Vermont's two southernmost counties has been upgraded to a full-blown winter storm warning. I don't think that warning really applies to low elevation towns like Bennington and Brattleboro. Those communities should only see maybe a couple inches. 

But the National Weather Service office in Albany, New York, which covers those two southern counties in Vermont, - Bennington and Windham -  says enough moisture is available to dump six to 12 inches of snow today and this evening across higher elevation of the Greens, above 1,000 feet. I'm sure steep, curvy Route 9 over the hills between Bennington and Brattleboro will be exciting today. 

The southern Vermont ski areas are sharing in the bounty of snow this time, compared to their northern counterparts. 

THURSDAY AND ONWARD

Most of the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut Valley can expect not much more than flurries tomorrow, but the mountains will keep piling up the snow.

Tomorrow will be the famous upslope snows we get behind storm systems, but with a bit of a twist.

Often, the flow of wind from the west and northwest doesn't really make it over the Green Mountains easily. The air rises and the moisture in the air condenses into snow that falls on the summits and western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Tomorrow, in general, that air will of course rise up the western slopes of the Greens, but won't actually get blocked by the mountains so much. That means the moisture condensing into snow will fall on the summits and mostly east of the northern and central Green Mountains.

This mostly means the Northeast Kingdom, and towns immediately to the east of the Greens, like Stowe, might do fairly well with this. 

The weekend is looking chilly. Both Saturday and Sunday might feature scattered light snow, but the main story will be another shot of Arctic cold arriving Sunday. I'll have more on that in future updates. v

Snowy Vermont Day Has Begun, Decent Snowfall Almost Statewide

This morning's National Weather Service snow prediction
map is little changed from yesterday. Still looking at
roughly 6 to 9 inches in the southeastern half of
Vermont and somewhat lesser amounts northwest. 

 As of 6:30 this morning the snow was beginning, launching us into our snowy start to December.

For such an unpredictable type of weather system, the forecast has remained remarkably consistent for the past few days. This morning, we have only small changes in the forecast compared to last night. 

The most important one is the slightly earlier than forecast onset of snow than we originally thought. The original idea was it coming in around 7 a.m., but at least for western Vermont and New York, it was around 6 a.m. or so.

The first bits of snow were light, but it will increase in intensity, especially in the southern half of Vermont. 

As for this morning, you know the drill.  If you haven't left for school or work yet, you should, or should have built in extra time to get to where you need to go. As of 7 a.m. traffic cameras showed roads getting increasingly snow covered, pretty fast across much of the state.

Before you head out, check your local listings for school closings. There's a ton of them. 

By 7 a.m., I haven't heard much yet about cars sliding off the roads or hitting each other, but that will come soon enough today. The saving grace with this storm is the heaviest snow is coming after most people are at work.

ACCUMULATIONS

Not much has changed in terms of how much snow we'll get. The bottom line: This is a midsized snowfall, by Vermont standards. 

The new forecast map issued this morning from the National Weather Service in South Burlington only has subtle changes, compared to the one they gave us Monday afternoon. Maybe a tiny bit more than yesterday's forecast in northwestern Vermont. That reflects a predicted storm track that has nudged just a bit north from yesterday. 

The winter storm warning is still in effect for basically the southern  half of Vermont and the winter weather advisory is up for everyone except people in Franklin and Grand Isle counties. But even there, the road conditions are already going downhill.

There will be some nuances with the accumulations in the area covered by warning and advisories. Three to 10 inches of new snow is a good bet today, depending on whether you're in the warning or the advisory. 

Traffic cam grab of Exit 16, Interstate 89 in Colchester
at around 7:30 this morning. The heaviest snow
hadn't arrived yet, so road conditions weren't as
bad as they could have been. 

But there will be nuances. This type of storm tends to set up narrow southwest to northeast oriented bands of heavier snow. You can't easily tell in advance where they will set up. 

This means you might get into a situation where you'll have a Vermont town that gets 10 inches of snow, then a community just a dozen or two miles north gets four or five inches, then another town a couple dozen miles north of that second town gets eight, nine, ten inches. 

It's the luck of the draw. 

In so many recent winters, we've had these awful "wet cement" heavy snowstorms, uncharacteristic for us, really. This one is more old-fashioned. Powdery. Not light insignificant feathers, but it won't be heart-attack snow, either. 

It still looks like the wind will be fairly light with this storm, so the snow will be pretty piling up on tree branches. It is surprisingly blustery outside here in St. Albans, but that seems to be some sort of local effects. Most places in Vermont were reporting calm winds, or winds at or under 10 mph. 

ROCKET STORM

Forecasts that this storm would move wicked fast are coming true. The storm was near southeastern North Carolina early this morning and will be near Cape Cod by this evening. 

That leaves us with a short window for heavier snow. That should come roughly between 10 a.m.  and 3 p.m. today. By late this afternoon or very early evening, the storm will basically be over in the northwest half of Vermont, and it will end before midnight in extreme southeastern parts of the state.

Usually, at least light snow lingers for many hours after a storm passes Cape Cod as northeast winds throw moisture back into our neck of the woods. This storm, though, is pretty compact, so once it's over, it's pretty much over.

Still, I expect roads to be in not great shape as we go into this evening, especially in southern and eastern Vermont. 

OUTLOOK

The roughest start to winter since at least 2019 and probably before that will continue to slap us in the face as we go through the week. Tomorrow will be fairly calm, but kinda cold for this time of year, with highs in the low 30s. 

That Arctic cold front is still looming for Thursday morning with its batch of snow showers and snow squalls. We're watching the timing of this one, because the snow squalls might enter the Champlain Valley around the morning commute. We're hoping they hold off until a little later in the morning, but we don't know for sure yet

Temperatures will crash into the teens by Thursday afternoon and to near 0 by Friday morning. It'll sort of warm up over the weekend and into next week, but barely. It'll still be much colder than average for this time of year well into next week. 

I'll have more details on that after we get past this storm, but it looks like we'll have a few shots of Arctic air through mid-month at least. 

Monday Evening Storm Update: Pretty Vermont Snowstorm Tomorrow, But Road Will Make People Grumble

Updated snow forecast for tomorrow, from the National
Weather Service office in South Burlington 
Predicted totals are up a little bit in eastern
Vermont, about the same west. 

 I noticed high, thin clouds creeping in late this afternoon here in St. Albans, the first harbinger of our expected New England snowstorm. 

As expected, we have some change and upgrades to the watches that were up earlier. 

This fast-moving storm is covering a lot of real estate. Winter weather advisories with this thing extend from Kansas and Arkansas all the way to Maine. 

The winter storm warnings, for the heaviest snow as of these evening run through the Catskills and Capitol District of New York, on through central New England.

In general, predicted snow amounts are similar to what we had this morning, with predictions ticking up from this morning east of the Green Mountains from Brattleboro all the way up to the Northeast Kingdom. 

There's still time for the storm's projected path to shift, so by tomorrow morning, there might be some further changes in the forecast. You know the drill. 

VERMONT'S WINTER STORM WARNING

For us here in Vermont, the upgrade to winter storm warning covers pretty much the same ground the earlier winter storm watch occupied

That warning goes through the southern four counties of Vermont, Orange County, and the hilly and mountainous terrain in Addison County east of Route 7. The warning, in effect from 7 a.m. tomorrow to 1 a.m. Wednesday, calls for 5 to 9 inches of snow.

In their forecast discussion this afternoon, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington said there could easily be pockets of 10 inches or a little more snow in mostly far southern and eastern Vermont, maybe as far north as Orange County. 

That's barely with the winter storm warning criteria. But remember, this storm is rocketing through, so the snow will mostly come down in a big thump lasting just during the day, with a peak probably mid-morning to mid afternoon.

Snow could come down at a rate of an inch per hour in southern and central Vermont, which is hard for the snow plows to keep up with. If you have unnecessary travel plans in southern Vermont tomorrow, just postpone until Wednesday. It'll be easier. 

On the bright side, this will be a pretty snowstorm, The snow's consistency will be somewhat on the fluffy side - not exactly feathers, but definitely not wet cement, either. There won't be a lot of wind, either, so the snow will pile up nicely on branches and such. 

Great for the Christmas spirit if you're into that, or if you're looking for a photo opportunity to include on Christmas cards and gifts. 

FURTHER NORTH

A winter weather advisory is up for all of Vermont north of the winter storm warning, except Franklin and Grand Isle counties where the snow will be even lighter.

In the areas under the advisory, it looks like three to seven inches of new snow is in the cards. Up in Franklin and Grand Isle counties, expect maybe just two to four inches, and maybe even a notch below that in the extreme northwest up by Alburgh. 

TIMING

As mentioned this morning, it looks like the snow will start just in time for the evening commute. The start of this will be a little unusual. There might be flurries before dawn, but statewide, this will begin around 7 a.m. give or take. 

And instead of the snow creeping south to north like it usually does under this type of storm, it'll start snowing within the same hour or two window statewide. 

If you can get to your office or school before 7 a.m. that would be helpful. Or, if you can work remotely, even better. 

Even though the snow and its timing has already been blasted all over the media, people on the roads will be "surprised" by the suddenly poor visibility and slick roads on the highways. 

For the love of God, take it easy on the road. Your mistake can cause problems for hundreds of people, maybe thousands. That's because you wreck on, say Interstate 89 and traffic backs up for miles as a result. 

All those people are late for work, maybe in trouble with their bosses. They miss doctor and dentist appointments, even things like critical cancer treatments. Everybody has to just sit there, wasting gas, because of you and your wreck. 

The speed demons who cause these kinds of situations surely don't care about anyone else, so I doubt I'm getting through to them.  But I'm mentioning it because I do believe there's such a thing as karma. 

The snow, as mentioned, should continue all day. It'll start to taper off in the late afternoon and evening from northwest to southeast across the state. The roads won't be in great shape on the way home, either, so keep that in mind. 

We're still looking at a sharp cold front with possible snow squalls Thursday, followed by Arctic air Thursday night and Friday. I'll have more details in subsequent posts. 

I'll update this tomorrow morning, of course! Enjoy the snow! 

Green Mountains In Vermont To Get Buried In Snow By Monday

National Weather Service snowfall prediction map.
Practically nothing in some valleys, but closing in
on two feet on some mountains by Tuesday.

 The first part of our storm is over, the one that dumped a cold rain, and in some areas freezing rain overnight. 

All the was expected, and was the easy part of the forecast for this storm. And those forecasts were pretty accurate.

Now comes the tricky part. 

We have a big, classic, upslope snow event for the Green Mountains. That's when moisture-laden air, propelled by stiff northwest winds, slams into the west slopes of the mountains. The air is forced to rise up and over the mountains. 

Rising air cools. Cooler air can't hold as much moisture as milder air. So the cooler air sheds the excess moisture it can't handle as precipitation. In this case, it means snow. Lots of snow.

This type of weather scenario happens all the time, every winter in Vermont. This episode will be bigger than most of them. 

The broad brush part of the forecast is easy. We know it's going to snow a lot in the Green Mountains, especially in central and northern Vermont. We know the summits of the Green Mountains will get nailed. Few of us  will be surprised if Jay Peak gets a couple feet. That's the mountain that almost always gets buried the most in this type of situation.

We also know very little snow will come down in places like the southern Champlain Valley and the Connecticut River Valley, roughly south of Wells River. 

It's the details that are tricky.  Especially in towns on the edge of the heavy snow zone. Places that get barely an inch or two will be very close to places that get six inches, even 12 inches. 

Probably the trickiest areas to forecast are in western Vermont, east of Route 7 all the way from Pownal to Highgate. 

Right along Route 7, there probably won't be much snow at all. But heading east from Route 7, snow totals will rapidly rise.  But where will that sharp increase start? In Chittenden County, will you start seeing a fair amount of snow in Williston? Or will you need to get to Bolton or the eastern part of Jericho to find pretty deep snow?

I live on Route 36 in St. Albans. Near the lake, on that road, they'll be lucky to get an inch of snow. I live on the transition zone on Route 36 on Fairfield Hill. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a couple inches of new snow at my house. 

But two miles up the road, at the top of the hill, there could be double the amount of snow over what will be in my back yard. Bakersfield, about 13 miles east of my place, could get a foot or more of snow.  

As I began writing this at 8 a.m. Sunday, the northwest flow has just barely started. We were getting snow flurries in St. Albans at that hour, and weather radar shows the beginnings of this upslope snow. 

The heavy snow will peak from this afternoon through early Monday. 

A winter storm warning is unsurprisingly in effect for much of northern Vermont near the Green Mountains.    As mentioned, snow amounts will vary widely between valleys and mountaintops.

It also looks like much of the Northeast Kingdom should get a fair amount of snow with this. Winter weather advisories are in effect up there. A winter weather advisory is up for Franklin County, too, where, as mentioned, snowfall will be super variable. 

Further south in Vermont, the mountain snows won't be quite as heavy. But it'll be noticeable. A winter weather advisory is in effect down the spine of the Green Mountains from central Vermont to the Massachusetts border. 

The National Weather Service is going for three to six inches, with locally as much as ten inches in this winter weather advisory zone. 

No matter where you are this afternoon through tomorrow, it's going to be windy. Expect gusts over 30 mph in most places, with a few gusts over 40 mph. 

Where it will be snowing hard, expect a lot of blowing and drifting snow. Almost blizzard conditions, really. 

By the way, the Adirondacks of New York, especially the northern and western Adirondacks, will get buried, too in this situation. Same is true for some of the White Mountains of New Hampshire. 

The bottom line: I'd avoid travel this afternoon through Monday morning along high elevation mountain roads. You know the places: Roadways like Route 17 through Buels Gore, Roxbury Gap, Route 242 and 105 way up by Jay Peak, the back roads near and east of towns like Bakersfield, Enosburgh, Cambridge, Underhill, Huntington, Ripton. 

The snow will finally tend to lighten up and stay closer to the immediate Green Mountain ridgeline starting later tomorrow into Tuesday. 

Most ski areas won't be open yet but I'm sure there will be some people hiking in for some powder skiing.  

Saturday Morning Vermont Storm Update: High Winds To Worsen Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain

Latest snow and sleet forecast map issued Saturday 
morning shows little change. Most snow probably
northwest. A little less accumulation along
western slopes of Green Mountain where strong
downslope winds could limit the intensity
of the snow or sleet.

 We're still bracing for quite a Vermont storm on Sunday, and to an extent Monday. 

The forecast for a thump of snow, then a lot of mixed precipitation, then a little more snow has in general not changed since last night.  However, forecasters are getting more and more concerned about wind. 

In addition to the existing winter storm warning, a high wind warning is in effect for Rutland County Sunday.  

Further north a wind advisory is in effect for the western slopes of the Green Mountains pretty much all the way to the Canadian border.  Strong winds are also looking like they will be a factor at the tail end of the storm later Sunday night and Monday. 

As we usually do, let's get into the daily details. Bear with me, there's a lot to get into with this one,

TODAY: As expected, it's starting off cold, with lows in the single numbers with a few below zero readings. It won't get much warmer as skies gradually cloud over.  You'll see on weather radar this afternoon what looks like widespread snow moving in. But the Arctic air over us is dry, so most of that will evaporate before hitting the ground. 

We shouldn't really see anything more than a few snowflakes until after dark. 

TONIGHT: We'll mostly just see light to moderate snow overnight, the kind we're used to, and don't consider a big deal.  Sure, the roads will get slippery, but it won't be anything that unusual. The main show is on Sunday. 

Freezing rain forecast map issued Saturday 
morning by the National Weather Service.
Far southern Vermont could have some
real ice trouble, especially as winds
get stronger Sunday night. 

SUNDAY: A rough winter day for sure, with some places more rough than others. Everybody except perhaps extreme southwest Vermont will start the day with snow falling at a pretty good clip. 

Then, gradually through the morning and very early afternoon far north, the snow will mix with and change to mostly sleet. The sleet will spread south to north across the state.

Wind Worries

The storm's orientation now appears poised to cause one of those damaging downslope wind events along the western slopes of the Green Mountains.  I still don't think this will be as bad as the twin wind storms of January 2024, but this will be bad enough. 

Rutland County will probably, arguably see the worst effects of this storm as a snow to sleet and freezing rain scenario in Rutland County should combine with gusts to or even over 50 or 60 mph during the day. It looks like there, the potentially damaging gusts might not be limited to the immediate western slopes like in Mendon or Shrewsbury. 

The damaging gusts could extend into more populated areas like Rutland City and Town, and even as far west as Castleton, Poultney, West Rutland and Wells. 

If enough freezing rain mixes in, it will be all the worse because the wind will be hitting trees and power lines burdened with some ice. Even if everything stays sleet and ice doesn't cling to trees, the winds will be strong enough to knock some of them down, or at least remove some branches.

Further north, a wind advisory is up, as noted along the rest of the Green Mountain western slopes. Places like Ripton, Bristol, Huntington, Underhill, Cambridge, eastern Enosburg, Bakersfield  and Richford could see wind gusts to 55 mph.  Locally higher in some of the most wind prone areas. 

The one saving grace is precipitation - whatever it may be - will be somewhat lighter in areas with the strongest winds. The downslope winds tend to locally discourage heavy snow or sleet or rain or whatever. 

Forecast wind gust map for Sunday. Orange stripe
along western Green Mountain slopes indicate gusts
at or over 50 mph. This map doesn't include expected
strong wind later Sunday night and Monday. 

Also, places well away from the western slopes, like most of eastern Vermont and the Champlain Valley mostly along and west of Route 7 shouldn't have all that much wind during the day Sunday. It could gust to 25 to 30 mph there, annoying when you're being hit in the face by sleet, but not terribly dangerous.

Mixed Precipitation

There's still disagreement among meteorologists as to exactly when the changeover will happen, how far north the worst of the sleet and freezing rain gets, and what proportion of this storm will be snow, and which proportion will be sleet. 

I think everyone should expect at least some sleet, but expect surprises. Some places will get less snow and more sleet than currently in the forecast, and in some places it might be the opposite. The further south you go, though, the more mixed precipitation you'll get.

A wild card is freezing rain. While it looks like the majority of this mess will be sleet, freezing rain should mix in, especially the further south you go.  Freezing rain is much worse, because it will cling to trees and weigh them down.  That has implications for Sunday night and Monday. More on that in a bit.

Unless the forecast changes a lot, I think northern Vermont will see very little if any freezing rain. It'll be a sleet thing up there. 

The further south you go, the more freezing rain you encounter. I am especially worried about a few areas in far southern Vermont, where a quarter inch or more of ice could accumulate on everything. Once you go above a quarter inch of ice, you start losing tree branches and power lines. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

As what by then will be a twin storm system - one a little to our north, the other strengthening along the New England Coast, colder air will sweep in Sunday evening in all levels of the atmosphere over Vermont. 

That'll change everything back to snow. There could be a really heavy burst of snow for a little while in the evening north. Then it should start to taper off overnight, first in southern Vermont valleys and gradually working its way so that by Monday morning, it will be mostly the mountains still getting snow. 

Strong west to northwest winds will develop.  A high wind watch is up for far southern Vermont Sunday night through Monday evening for possible gusts as strong as 60 mph. 

If there's ice on the trees from Sunday's freezing rain down there, that's a recipe for more power outages. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, expect wind gusts of 40 mph later Sunday night and Monday. The eastern slopes of the Green Mountains could see 50 mph gusts. We might need a wind advisory for later Sunday night and Monday. 

The strong winds will blow around the fluffier snow that falls atop the likely icy crusty Sunday night. Travel will be no picnic on Monday, either, especially as temperatures will stay quite low. 

BOTTOM LINE/WHAT TO DO

Forecasters in general are still calling for a pretty substantial total accumulation of six to nine inches of snow and sleet for most of us.  Sleet is heavy, so if you get a lot of it, just be forewarned that cleanup won't be a breeze. 

Because of the extra snow at the tail end of the storm the northern and central Green Mountains could do very well with this storm, despite a layer of sleet that might be in there. I would not at all be surprised if some northern Vermont ski areas end up with well over a foot of new snow by Monday night. 

Also, if for some reason the sleet doesn't make it all the way to the Canadian border, some far northern Vermont towns could see over a foot of snow.  All depends on the sleet.

Stay off the roads Sunday.  Especially if you're in the high wind warning and advisory areas, where debris on the roads or falling branches would add to the danger. Charge your devices and get your LED candles out if you're in the high wind/freezing rain zones. You might well lose power on Sunday, and it could take awhile to get the electric back. Especially with strong winds continuing Monday. 

Pro tip: If you are not going to move your car until at least Monday, let the early snow pile up on it.  Then any freezing rain will fall atop the snow, making it easier to clean off the car. If the windshields are covered with snow, the freezing rain won't cling directly to the windows, so you won't have to break your arms chopping and scraping the ice. 

Expect a rough commute Monday morning for much of Vermont, too. It's hard to scrape all that ice off the roads, especially as temperatures will be low enough for salt to become ineffective. Snow will continue in some areas Monday morning, too, especially in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

Blowing snow will be an issue. 

Despite getting into the second half of February, winter looks like it will hang tough for quite awhile yet. It'll be very cold the first half of the week, with highs in the teens, low near zero. The cold will relax somewhat by the end of the week though. 

It still look like a new nor'easter will go to far to our south and east to bother us next Thursday, but that's not a unanimous opinion among the computer models. We'll still need to keep an eye on it just in case.   

Friday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Forecast Keeps Getting Uglier

Snow and sleet forecast accumulation map from the 
National Weather Service in South Burlington, updated
late Friday afternoon. Still a low-confidence forecast,
as there's still lots of questions about to what 
extent sleet and freezing rain will enter the picture. 

 As of late Friday afternoon, the trend toward more and more sleet and freezing rain with our upcoming Vermont storm continues. 

We still get a decent thump of snow, but you're also going to be dealing with potentially a thick layer of sleet, and possibly harder freezing rain ice with this ugly system.

The predicted overall chain of events hasn't changed much since this morning, except for the fact that even more sleet and freezing rain is win the cards than predictions indicated this morning. At least in the opinion of many, but not all local meteorologists. 

As we've been saying all along, the worst of the ice should hit southern Vermont, but all of us should get at least some sleet. Unfortunately, most of the heaviest precipitation rates will coincide with the time that sleet and freezing rain are likeliest. 

To nobody's surprise, the winter storm watch we had this morning has been upgraded to a winter storm warning statewide. A watch means conditions are favorable for a storm, a warning means it's happening now or inevitable.

We're still in the inevitable category because there's no really dangerous weather coming in until Saturday night, really.  The warning goes from Saturday evening until early Monday morning, so this is no quick hitter like the last few storms have been.  

This will be the worst winter storm Vermont has seen this year.  It might not be the worst winter storm we've ever seen, but it's one to take seriously. 

Still a lot of questions as to how much freezing rain
will enter the picture with Sunday's storm. 

Aside from the snow, the ice, the terrible roads, the heavy stuff well to clean up, power outages are starting to become more likely. 

Let's break down the chain of events

TONIGHT:

Partly cloud and cold. Lows will be within a few degrees either side of zero. Other than needing to dress for the conditions, there's really no weather or travel concerns today.  

SATURDAY

It's your day to stock up on supplies if you need to. If there's any morning sun, it will fade behind increasing, darkening clouds through the days. Light snow will begin to spread southwest to northeast across the state in the late afternoon. It'll stay cold, with  highs staying near 20. Snow might not reach the Northeast Kingdom until well after dark. 

SATURDAY NIGHT

Snow will continue. Lightly at first, but picking up steam as we approach dawn.   It'll still be too cold for any sleet, except maybe late at night in far southwest Vermont. Most of us should have a decent two to four inches of new snow by the time dawn breaks Sunday.

SUNDAY

Here's where things get more dangerous, and more complicated. And thus, harder to forecast. What I'll outline is what the National Weather Service thinks will happen as of Friday night.  But it could change. If it does change, I think the trend might continue away from snow and more toward sleet and freezing rain. 

If our scenario plays out as planned, it'll be snowing pretty hard Sunday morning. But things will starting mixing with and changing to sleet and, eventually freezing rain in many spots starting in the late morning. 

If there's more freezing rain than expected with the
upcoming storm, tree damage and power outages
could come into play. We're unsure of this so far.

The snow will start out light and fluffy early, but become wetter and heavier as the morning goes on. 

Not because it'll be all that warm down here on the ground. But because the snow will start to partly melt as it falls through a warm layer high above

This has implications for power outages. The wetter snow will start to sag and weigh down some trees. It won't be enough to cause the power lines to break, but it'll help set the stage for problems later.

The sleet will add to the weight, but at least some of it tends to bounce off and not stick to things.

 But now, it looks like some freezing rain could make it all the way to the Canadian border. The mix or sleet or freezing rain could last six to eight hours, if the National Weather Service is correct. 

That said, opinions as of Friday evening among local meteorologists are pretty divided. The National Weather Service has sleet and possible freezing rain all the way to the Canadian border by perhaps noon. Other meteorologists question whether the changeover will happen that fast, or last particularly long, or even if there will be much sleet at all in far northern Vermont.  

I don't know which is right, and no meteorologist in their right mind has a lot of confidence in the forecast right now.

But I do know that you should plan on not driving anywhere on Sunday, and  plan on perhaps anything frozen or freezing coming from the sky, be it snow, sleet or freezing rain. A complete changeover to plain rain is not in the cards, except just maybe in extreme southern Vermont, like in Bennington or Brattleboro.

Even there, if it goes to plain rain - a big if - that won't last long. It's definitely going to be a snow and ice event for us. 

If there's a fair amount of freezing rain anywhere, that will add to the weight of the snow on trees and power lines. Then, the wind will pick up Sunday evening and overnight, and that's where we'll see the risk of some power outages.

This won't be anything remotely like the Great Ice Storm of 1998, but we do face the risk of scattered power outages.  The biggest risk of a fairly thick layer of ice from freezing rain with this storm is in southern Vermont. 

SUNDAY NIGHT

The mix goes over to snow, and tends to become lighter in most places. Northern Vermont is most likely to continue to see some snow accumulations overnight. It'll get windy, with gusts to over 35 mph in many spots. 

MONDAY:

The snow showers will continue in the mountains. Up there, a few to several inches of snow will fall.  In the valleys, there will be little accumulation. But it will be a miserable day, with cold winds continuing to gust past 35 mph in many areas. Temperatures will stay in the teens, and wind chills will e below zero.  Blowing snow will add to the Arctic wasteland feel to the day.

BOTTOM LINE

The National Weather Service is still expecting total accumulations of snow and sleet to be in the six to nine inch range statewide. There's still a big bust potential. If the warm air aloft really wins out, there would be less, maybe three to eight inches, with a lot of ice, which would suck.

If the warm air aloft turns wimpy, we could see more than a foot in parts of northern Vermont and easily six to 10 inches south before.

I'll post another update Saturday morning, as I'm sure we'll have further updates and forecast refinements. 

Next In Series Of Vermont Snowfalls Coming Tonight; In Many Ways, This Is A Pleasant One

Southern Vermont will be the big winner in the snow
sweepstakes with the latest storm racing through
tonight. A good half a foot or more down thee. 

Once again, winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are up for most of Vermont as yet another quick hitting snowfall comes racing through the Green Mountain State tonight. 

Despite the fact that the southern half of the state will receive more snow tonight than that storm we had on Thursday, it's not going to screw up things as much as the daytime snow burst we dealt with Thursday. 

First off, this will be all snow. Don't worry about freezing drizzle or crap like that.   Although most of the southern half of Vermont is going to be dealing with six or more inches of snow, it will be light and fluffy and powdery and pretty. 

We're not going to get a lot of wind, and the tail end of this storm won't include the kind of vicious snow squalls like most of northern Vermont saw Friday morning. This new snow is hitting on the weekend, and mostly at night, so it's not going to mess with schools, or that many work schedules. 

Sure, you'll have to take this snow seriously out one the roads, but you should know the drill by now.

THE PARTICULARS 

If you insist on getting bread and milk, because that's what you apparently have to do when a snowstorm is forecast, you're in the clear for that all day today. There's a few light snow showers around this morning, courtesy of a nothing burger little disturbance passing through. Otherwise, expect clouds to dominate and temperatures to be reasonable - in the 20s 

Then we get our storm. 

Gawd, this thing is moving fast. It'll get here this evening with snow cranking up for most of us between 8 and 10 this evening. By dawn or a little after Sunday, it'll pretty much be over.  . 

Southern Vermont

The storm is zipping by well to our south, so this will be a southern Vermont storm. Yes, snow will fall all the way to the Canadian border and a little beyond, but the real blast of snow will hit the south. 

A winter storm warning is up for Vermont's southern four counties. There, a good six to 10 inches of snow should come down.  It's possible a few isolated spots, especially in the far southern Green Mountains, could get close to a foot of snow. 

Though not exactly huge. the snowbanks lining my
driveway in St. Albans, Vermont are starting to
gain height. Looks like I'll have a small installment
of new snow tonight, as the heaviest stuff
should pass to our south. 

Like I said, it'll all come in a short period of time, so it will really snow hard down in that part of the state overnight. 

Many places in southern Vermont will see snowfall rates of an inch or more per hour at times. That's too fast for the snow plows to keep up with things. 

 I wouldn't bother driving anywhere in Vermont overnight if you can help it, but especially avoid southern Vermont. 

Things on the roads should improve quickly down there during Sunday morning, so that's when you head to the ski areas.

Central Vermont 

A winter weather advisory is flying for central and north-central Vermont.  It covers places like Middlebury, Burlington, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, but is not in effect for the counties along the Canadian border.

In the winter weather advisory zone, a decent three to six inches of fluff will come down to freshen everything up. The roads won't be great overnight, but other than that, enjoy the winter beauty there

Northern Vermont

No winter advisories are in effect for far northern Vermont. Those places should receive two to as much as four inches of fluff overnight and early Sunday. The least amount of snow should fall tight against the border, in places like Alburgh, Berkshire, Highgate in the far northwest; and probably Canaan at the northeast tip of Vermont might see just two inches or a little less.  

OUTLOOK

The storms will keep coming but we do have a sort of break in the action for a few days. After the bulk of the snow departs tomorrow, the rest of the day will feature clouds, maybe a glimpse of sun, and a few lingering light snow showers.

Monday looks partly sunny and chilly. A new cold front Tuesday could set off some snow showers, and forecasters are going to keep an eye on the risk of snow squalls once again later Tuesday. Those aren't guaranteed, but bear watching.

The next real storm looks like it wants to come along toward Thursday.  The early guess is this will be mostly or all snow. But there are questions about the path of the storm, which is what you'd expect since it's so many days away.  All that means that, if the storm goes inland too far, we could be looking at some freezing rain getting thrown in with the snow.

It's too soon to tell, so we'll put that in our back pocket for a few days and wait for updated forecasts later this week. 

After that, there's signs of yet another storm three days after Thursday's. Watch this space. 

ELSEWHERE

The storm tonight is not going to be nearly as pleasant elsewhere as it will be in Vermont.

An ice storm warning is in effect for pretty much the same sections of Pennsylvania that endured a bunch of freezing rain, blocked roads and power outages on Thursday. West Virginia, which suffered flooding on Thursday, is under another flood watch. Flood warnings are already in effect for parts of that state. 

The winter storm warning we mentioned in southern Vermont extends through the rest of central and southern New England. Places in the three southern New England states that have missed out on snowfalls so far this winter will finally get lucky with this one.

At least the risk of severe storms and tornadoes is lower with this system. The previous storm spun off s handful of tornadoes in Kentucky and Tennessee, one of which unfortunately killed two people and injured others. 

Saturday Evening Vermont/New England Snow Forecast Update

The updated snowstorm forecast for Sunday night. 
There's still a big bust potential with this forecast, 
and we could end up with much less or much
more than indicated here. 

Very much like this morning, there's still some questions as to how much snow will fall in Vermont and elsewhere in New England with a fast-moving nor'easter Sunday night, but the forecasts are coming into better focus. 

Before we get into that, we should recap the wind we saw in Vermont today, especially in the Champlain Valley. As of 5 p.m. that wind was dying down, after some pretty hefty gusts earlier. 

Top wind speeds reported include 56 mph at Colchester Reef, 50 mph at the Milton Sandbar and 49 mph at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

Luckily there were very few power outages to report as the winds did not appear quite strong enough to cause damage.

We're still expecting that cold front tonight. It's already created scattered rain and snow showers this afternoon and evening. Southwest winds aloft have prevented the Champlain Valley from really getting anything.

Temperatures will crash later tonight as the cold front comes through and the Arctic air rushes in.

THE STORM

Forecasts for this nor'easter that will race past us Sunday night have settled on a path that would take it probably just offshore of Cape Cod and Nantucket. 

That puts central New England in the golden zone for snow. A stripe of winter storm warnings for heavy snow extends from West Virginia, on through western Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York, Connecticut and Massachusetts

The winter storm watch in Bennington and Windham counties in far southern Vermont has been upgraded to a winter storm warning. Most places under the warnings can expect six to nine inches of snow. 

A winter weather advisory goes north into Rutland, Windsor and Orange counties, where three to seven inches of snow are anticipated.

Totals are still expected to taper off pretty quickly as you head northwest. It looks like the Champlain Valley might only see an inch or two of snow.

Maybe. 

The above forecast is as it stood as of Saturday evening. There's still a ton of wiggle room in this prediction. A slight shift in the storm's path will upend this forecast. That's because there will be a sharp cutoff on the northwestward edge of the storm between heavy snow and basically flurries. 

The storm could still nudge itself a little further northwestward than expected. If that happens, most of Vermont could really get a decent dump. On the other hand, a slight shift further southeastward than expected might leave most of the Green Mountain State without much snow at all.

Whatever happens, it will be pretty cold while it's snowing. Temperatures will fall into the single numbers or at best, lower teens. That'll leave us with really fluffy snow, if it snows where you are. 

This will be a brief snowfall because the storm will be racing by so quickly. It'll start in southern Vermont late Sunday afternoon and the evening elsewhere. It's scheduled to end before dawn Monday. 

Plan on difficult travel Sunday night, especially the further south and east you go. The snowplows will clear most of the snow off the road pretty quickly, but it'll be too cold for salt to work. Which means icy roads will linger on roads and highways well into the Monday morning commute.

One part of the forecast that has stayed firm is the anticipated frigid weather. We'll have highs in the single numbers to low teens Monday through Wednesday, with below zero readings at night. Breezes will introduce a bitter wind chill to this mess. 

Biggest Snowstorm Of Year Looms For Parts Of Vermont, Power Outage, Travel Threat

Now that it's spring, it's time for a major, disruptive winter storm.

This morning's National Weather Service snow forecast map.
Virtually all of Vermont north of Route 4 is now 
expecting at least a foot of snow out of this. 
Saturday is going to be a real mess. 

 Oh joy!   

As expected, the winter storm watch has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for everybody in Vermont except Bennington and Windham counties in far southern parts of the state

THE HEADLINES:

---  This might be the biggest snowstorm of the year, with more than a foot likely for the vast majority of towns from about Route 4 north to the Canadian border.

----- Road conditions will be awful Saturday and travel is not recommended at all.  

---- We could see a large number of power outages again, especially as the snow becomes wetter and heavier by late morning and afternoon. 

------ Snow will probably mix with or change to rain, sleet and maybe some freezing rain Saturday from roughly Route 4 southward.

----- The forecast has a very high bust potential one way or another.  Expect surprises, and results may vary. The mix with rain in southern Vermont is a big wildcard. 

THE DETAILS

Forecasted snow amounts have further increased since the predictions from last night and yesterday morning. Most places in central and northern Vermont should expect at least a foot of snow. A few favored locations, especially in the mountains could close in on two feet of snow. 

Everything is coming together for a big storm, as plenty of moisture will flood in off the Atlantic Ocean to sock New England with TONS of precipitation. 

Southern New England is looking at a flood threat. Northern New England is "lucky" enough to stay cold enough for mostly or all snow. 

The Effects

This will all start as snow after midnight tonight statewide. It won't take long before it starts coming down really hard, like an inch or even locally two inches per hour. That's a pace at which it's hard for plow crews to keep up with it. 

Expect crappy road conditions all day Saturday.  They're even saying travel would be virtually impossible at some times and some areas. Today ought to be your traditional milk and bread panic day, or booze buying day if you're into that. You'll want to hunker down and stay home tomorrow. 

Oh, and make sure you stock up today on LED candles and flashlights and stuff too, if you don't already have them.  Power outages are inevitable. We just don't yet know how extensive they'll be. 

The snow will start out fairly powdery before dawn, but then turn wetter and heavier as the day wears on. This will be a statewide issue by afternoon.  Many of us will start to hear branches break, and power flicker and/or go off. 

Just how wet and heavy the snow becomes will determine how bad the power outages get. Be prepared, just in case. 

This will also be "heart attack" snow, hard to shovel away.  Do it slowly during and after the storm, or better yet, hire your local high school student athlete to clear the snow for you.  This is the type of stuff that will clog snow blowers. 

I'm being Captain Obvious here, but it needs to be said: Shut off the snow blower when it clogs, wait for all the parts to stop moving, then use a tool or broomstick to unclog. Keep your hands to yourself and don't fondle the snow blower, please. That is if you want to keep your hands attached to your arms for future use. 

Anyway, this will be a day long affair, with the heavy snow lasting probably into the evening north of Route 4.  It probably won't be a matter of waiting for conditions to improve. In most places, they probably won't.

This storm will hit just as hard in northern New Hampshire and much of Maine, and parts of southern Quebec, too, so it won't be easy to escape this.  

South of Route 4, the National Weather Service is still forecasting a mix with or more likely a change to rain. There could also be pockets of sleet and freezing rain to make things even more fun.  This will all hold accumulations there down to six inches or less.

And you'll have an awful slush fest on your hands. Which will probably harden like cement when temperatures fall Saturday night. 

Bust Potential

As always with this storms, we're going to have surprises.  The National Weather Service is confident there will be a lot of snow, but the definition of "a lot" is iffy here. There's a more than 90 percent chance of at least six inches of snow north of Route 4, so the confidence is high there. 

The chances for at least a foot of snow go down to between 50 and 65 percent north of Middlebury and Thetford. 

The big questions are whether the rain will poke further north than forecast. That would cut down accumulations in central Vermont. 

 Or, less likely, the storm might not phase up as expected, so the moisture feed could be disrupted and we'll get less. 

The National Weather Service forecast map you see on this post isn't gospel.  It's a general idea of what is expected as of Friday morning. Expect adjustments to the forecast today and tonight. And when the storm is over, chances are you'll have somewhat less or somewhat more snow than what's depicted. 

The Big Thaw

This being spring, not all the snow will stick around forever. Sunday will be a big powder day on the ski slopes, though the sun might soften the snow and make it a little slushy in places where the sun really hits. The high sun angle of late March can really heat things up, even if the air stays cold. 

It will be a bright, sunny day to start clearing snow. That high sun angle will cause a LOT of reflectivity. It will be blinding out there, so definitely bring the sunglasses.

It'll only get into the 30s in most low elevations Sunday, so there won't be huge melting. It'll just start in sunny corners. 

The deep snow cover, mostly clear skies and light winds will make temperatures crash Sunday night, with readings easily dropping to near 10 or even under that in many places.

The rest of the week looks seasonably warm, with daytime temperatures getting well into the 40s. The thaw will start, at least in the valleys. 

With all the snow the mountains have gotten in the past week, and the snow we're going to see tomorrow, the flood potential goes up.  If it gets really warm and rains heavily in the next week or two, we're in for a bit of trouble.

At this point it seems that chances favor a gradual melt with not a huge amount of rain, so that's good news.  Rain showers are in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday and possibly Friday.  There's a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. For the time being, I'm unimpressed by the expected rainfall totals, which is a good thing if you don't want high water.

But, we'll just get through this big snowstorm and worry about that later.

Sunday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Some Of Us To Have An Exciting Round 2

Some of the snow that fell last night and this morning
melted away during the day's thawing temperatures
Sunday in St. Albans, but it looks like we're in for a 
few inches of replacement snow tonight. 

 Round 1 of our big storm ended by late morning today on schedule, leaving behind lots of downed power lines, trees, branches and wet, heavy snow.  

Pretty much as advertised.

Power outages peaked at a little over 28,000 in Vermont at around 10:30 a.m. today and have been declining as crews got right to work fixing them.

 I do think they'll start to rise again tonight and I'll get into why below in the forecast update.

So far, the deepest snow I saw from Round 1 was 14 inches in Rochester. There were several other reports of around a foot of snow. This is all in high elevations. Lower elevations saw about one to four inches. 

I said last night that forecasts had a very high bust potential. But in the end, those forecasts turned out to be very accurate. 

The water content of the snow - not surprisingly - was really high.  Quite a few towns in Vermont reported the water equivalent in the snow was over an inch.  That stores up water for possible snow melt floods later in the spring, though I don't see any signs of that happening soon. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington
mapped out snowfall totals from overnight and this
morning. Areas in orange had eight or more inches of snow.

In the valleys, above freezing temperatures and drizzle melted some of the snow, but as of 4 p.m. Round 2 was moving in

ROUND 2

Drizzle changed to a wet snow in St. Albans around 3 p.m. It was still warm, so it wasn't accumulating much yet as temperatures remained just above freezing.

But a cold front embedded in the northwest flow behind the storm was coming in from New York, and that promises to change any remaining rain to snow this evening. 

Wind 

Some of us are going to get absolutely dumped on. A few mountain locations should have near blizzard conditions at times overnight and for at least part of Monday. 

That's because the winds that were pretty light this morning will start to howl overnight and especially on Monday. . West of the Green Mountains, they'll gust to around 40 mph at times.

East of the Greens, the winds will gain a little momentum heading downhill. That has prompted a wind advisory for these spots as expected winds will gust to 50 mph starting early Monday and lasting through the day.  

 Places east of the Green Mountains won't see as much additional snow as those lucky enough to be in the Green Mountains or the western slopes.  But a little additional snow, plus the heavy, wet stuff from this morning still glued to some of the trees will combine with the wind to create additional power outages.

An exception to the not much snow east of Greens outlooks is the Northeast Kingdom. A number of places out that way could easily see an additional six inches of snow. 

Even as the snow becomes lighter, spottier and more confined toward the mountains as Monday afternoon wears on, the winds could actually increase to their peak in those hours. The atmosphere will allow high winds aloft to mix down toward the surface.

Snow

We're still look at a LOT of snow in the Green Mountains starting now and going to about Monday evening. Higher mountain slopes and the summits can expect another 12 to 18 inches on top of whatever they got last night and this morning. 

National Weather Service forecast snow map through 
8 a.m. Tuesday shows tons of additional snow in the
Green Mountains and Adirondacks. Towns in the
western slopes of the Greens can expect 6 to 12 inches
of new snow, while close to 18 inches new is
a good bet near the summits. 

Towns along the western slopes the Green Mountains - especially the eastern halves of Addison, Chittenden and Franklin counties, can expect another six to 12 inches.  All these places are under a winter storm warning until Monday evening, for obvious reasons. 

Once you get really close to the lake, amounts will decrease to near an inch. Judging from traffic cameras, any snow that fell near Lake Champlain this morning has melted completely away, so they're not sharing in the winter wonderland. 

Combined with water that will have frozen onto roads, more snow, and blowing and drifting snow, the morning commute should be lousy for a lot of us Monday morning. That's especially true east of Route 7 and areas well west of Interstate 91. 

Interstate 89 between about Brookfield and Williston ought to be extremely interesting Monday morning. Route 100 looks fun, too.   

For the ski areas, this is the snowstorm they wanted in January, or at least February. The cement like stuff from last night laid down a base. The stuff coming overnight and Monday will be much more powdery.  Skiers and riders and finally going to have a blast for the next couple of days. 

It is March, and it's warmer. And we are going to have another balmier than average week after we get past Monday. The next storm due at the end of the week or weekend looks smaller than the one we just got, and will probably be mostly rain, as it looks now.

But winter isn't done. After a months of a weather pattern that gave us such a record breaking warm winter, it's going to trend colder after next weekend, possibly for the rest of the month. We'll have several snow chances in that colder regime as well. 

 

Saturday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Snow Forecast Largely Unchanged, But Expect Surprises

As of Saturday afternoon, snow accumulation forecasts
from the National Weather Service office in South
Burlington, Vermont are barely changed from this
morning, maybe nudged up a tiny bit. 

 As of this afternoon, there was already a little light snow coming down in several parts of Vermont. That's a little earlier than I anticipated. 

It's just a weak piece of energy ahead of the main storm that's creating a little lift in the atmosphere.

 The snow won't amount to much early this evening, but it is making the roads a little greasy in spots,

The main show continues to be overnight and Sunday. There are some subtle shifts in the forecast since this morning. That's typical right before a snowstorm as meteorologists refine their predictions based on the latest data.

Before I get into it, I will promise there will be surprises here and there with this storm, as there is with every snowstorm ever in Vermont. A few unexpected places might get more than forecast, a few others might have a relatively deep snow surprise.

All in all, though, this will be a pretty typical winter snowfall for Vermont.

That said, let's get into it

ACCUMULATIONS

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington hasn't changed their forecast much since this morning. 

They've added Washington County, around Montpelier and Barre to the winter storm warning - they were only under a winter weather advisory this morning. It looks like those areas will likely see close to or a little more than six inches of snow.  

A little bit of snow falls in St. Albans, Vermont late
Saturday afternoon ahead of the main show overnight
and Sunday across most of the state.

Everything south of there still remains under the winter storm warning. 

The National Weather Service has also extended the winter weather advisory northward. Instead of stopping in north-central Vermont like it did earlier, it now extends to the Canadian border. Accumulation forecasts have gone up a little in the far north, with three to five inches now expected.

That said, I do think there might be some "losers" in this storm, areas that get cheated out of most snow they can get. 

Since this storm has an east wind for us, which is typical of a coastal storm, the Green Mountains might "shadow" areas along the western slopes. They might get a little less snow than surrounding areas.

Parts of the Northeast Kingdom are in the same boat. The White Mountains of New Hampshire should block some moisture with those wet east winds. 

A few places in the NEK might see as little as two inches out of this. Bummer, dude.

TIMING

The schedule for the storm hasn't changed much, either, though the start of the heavier snow has been pushed back a couple hours. Most of Vermont should get into the steady snow after 10 p.m. tonight. But interestingly, the far Northeast Kingdom might need to wait until Sunday morning to see any real snow.

The NWS has also played with the timing of the very heaviest snow a little bit. They're now expecting a pretty good thump of snow generally in the hours around midnight and a little after. Then there might be a bit of lull before dawn. After that, the storm's heaviest dump might  come between dawn and noon Sunday. 

We're still looking at the possibility of a deformation band to set up perhaps somewhere in Vermont Sunday morning. A deformation band is a stripe of heavier snow that sets up on the northwestern flank of a New England coastal storm.

They're hard to forecast in advance. It might not happen. If it does, I have no idea where in Vermont it would set up. Best chances would be in central, southern or southeastern Vermont.  

This storm really does have pedal to the metal, so it will be offshore by afternoon, with snow waning here in Vermont by mid afternoon.  

For some of the western slopes cheated by the shadowing earlier in the storm, there might be a bit of   "backside bonus," those persistent post-storm snow showers that cling to the Green Mountains and their western slopes, especially north of Route  well into the evening. 

EFFECTS

We're still looking at lousy travel conditions later tonight and most of the day on Sunday. Stay home if you can. 

We need snow, since we're really short on it this year. Ski areas are going to love this, even if the powdery consistency is short lived, with an expected thaw and rain storm midweek. 

Vermont low elevations in particular are having a snow drought. Only about eight inches of snow has fallen this season in Burlington, for instance. The city should have had close to 30 inches by now. 

The storm tonight and Sunday will fall well short of making up for that snow deficit.  And if the longer range forecasts are to be believed, no new big dumps snow are in the offing for more than a week at least. 

 

Saturday Vermont Storm Forecast: Gradual Northward Snow Forecast Trend Continues

Yet another tick upward in National Weather Service/South
Burlington snow predictions for this weekend. Model
trends keep nudging the storm's path north. If this
trend continues (big if) northern areas could get
more snow than shown  here. 

 New model data overnight continued the trend we saw all day Friday: They keep gradually nudging our weekend storm northward, increasing the expected amount of snow across Vermont, along with parts of New York and New Hampshire. 

This will be something of a traditional Vermont snowstorm: Surely noticeable, and something to take seriously, stay off the roads, etc. 

But it won't exactly be historic.  We have this kind of thing a few times each winter. I'm sure the folks who run ski resort aren't exactly complaining about this one. 

 I'm actually more worried about a second storm Tuesday night and Wednesday, which I will get into a little bit after dealing with this thing coming in tonight. 

SNOWFALL

Winter storm warnings are now in effect roughly south of a line from Middlebury to Wells River (south of St. Johnsbury). In this zone, six to 12 inches of snow ice expected between this evening and Sunday afternoon. 

It's a quick, rather intense storm, and much of this snow will fall in just a few to several hours roughly between midnight tonight and dawn Sunday. The snowfall rates could be as high as two inches per hours, says the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

Another zone in north-central Vermont encompassing Burlington, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury is now in a winter weather advisory. This area can expect three to six inches of snow. Snowfall rates could go as high as an inch per hour during the height of the storm Sunday morning. 

Snow will also fall all the way to the Canadian border but be lighter. Most areas near the Canadian border should see 2.5 to 4.5 inches.

There will still be adjustments to this forecast, as there pretty much always is in this situation. If that northern drift in the path of this storm continues, snow totals will go up near and north of Route 2, but stay very roughly the same or go up just little over current forecasts in southern Vermont. 

One wildcard is a band of especially intense snow that often sets up northwest of a storm like this. Under that band, the snow can be particularly intense and boost snow totals further. Unfortunately, it's very hard to determine ahead of time where this band will set up, if at all.  We'll just have to wait and see.

TIMING/IMPACTS

The snow should spread southwest to northeast across Vermont starting near Bennington a little before 8 p.m. or so tonight, and reaching the Northeast Kingdom by midnight or a little after.

The heaviest snow should come down from roughly midnight tonight to noon or a little after.  It'll probably most intense around dawn. 

In the southern half of Vermont, I wouldn't drive anywhere Sunday morning. Visibility will be atrocious, especially since the snow will also be kind of powdery and easily blown around. It'll be snowing hard enough so that the plows will have trouble keeping up.

In northern Vermont, it might not be quite as bad, depending on how far north the heaviest snow band get. But even there, plan on slippery roads, crappy visibility and that sort of thing. Probably a good idea to stay indoors up there, too. 

This is a pretty widespread dump of snow, by the way. A big area including most of central Pennsylvania, southern and central New York and most of central and southern New England away from the immediate south coast should see a good eight to 12 inches out of this as well.

I expect some flight delays and other travel trouble throughout the Northeast later today and tonight.

The snow will turn lighter during the afternoon, but linger into the evening, especially north and in the mountains. 

Given the fact that the snow will be on the fluffy side, this storm shouldn't cause any trouble with power outages. But I'm not so sure we'll be lucky with the next storm

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

I'm still not keen on getting to into detail with the next storm because we're still dealing with Sunday's snow, but it's worth a mention and update .

An impressive storm still looks like it wants to get going Monday and strengthen into a powerhouse as it moves northeastward from the Plains to the eastern Great Lakes between now and Wednesday.

It'll affect a huge area. Pretty much everybody east of a line from Arizona to North Dakota is going to have some pretty bad weather with this one. Everything from blizzards to ice, to severe weather and tornadoes, flooding and high winds are all on the table with the big midweek storm, depending upon where you are.

In Vermont, I'm still worried about high winds with the midweek storm.  It's still several days away, so things could change. But the forecasts right now hint at a classic western slope wind storm.  Worst case scenario, there could be widespread gusts over 50 mph, with 70 mph or more not out of the question.

Unlike Sunday's snowstorm, that's a recipe for power outages.  Also on the table for Tuesday night is freezing rain, then rain and possible minor flooding Wednesday. 

On top of all this, I see hints of another large storm in about a week from now. It's going to be busy, folks! 

Weekend Vermont Snow Forecast Trends Northward Again

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington
has once again nudged expected snow totals upward 
compared to previous forecast. This map was
issued late Friday afternoon

 So far, as of this Thursday evening, forecasters are getting more bullish on snow in Vermont Saturday night and Sunday.   

Once again, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington has bumped up snow accumulation forecasts.

The winter storm watch has been extended northward from its position in Rutland and Windsor counties this morning.  It now encompasses pretty much all of Vermont south of Route 2.

It now also looks like far northern Vermont is in play for a modest two or three inches of new snow, according to current forecasts. That's a boost from the dusting to an inch that was in the forecast yesterday. 

High elevations in far southern Vermont are now under the gun for up to a foot of snow. The winter storm watch has been upgraded to a winter storm warning in Bennington and Windham counties. 

I don't know whether this northward trend in the storm track will continue right up until the storm hits, but it is encouraging for snow lovers Even if a subsequent storm midweek ends up depositing mixed precipitation or rain.

For the weekend storm, it's looking like the first flakes will come down in the southwest corner of Vermont roughly around 6 p.m. Saturday and spread north to the Northeast Kingdom by around midnight, give or take.

It appears the heaviest snow will come very late Saturday night into Sunday morning. 

Expect snowy, slippery roads and poor visibility later Saturday night and Sunday, especially in central and southern Vermont. 

Of course, we're still more than 24 hours away from the storm, so things can still change either way, with updated forecasts of either more or less snow than I'm talking about this evening.

That expected midweek storm still looks potentially wild, with heavy precipitation and strong winds still possible. I'll do better updates on that storm starting about Sunday, as the Tuesday night/Wednesday storm could end up being on the impressive side.