Saturday Vermont Storm Forecast: Gradual Northward Snow Forecast Trend Continues

Yet another tick upward in National Weather Service/South
Burlington snow predictions for this weekend. Model
trends keep nudging the storm's path north. If this
trend continues (big if) northern areas could get
more snow than shown  here. 

 New model data overnight continued the trend we saw all day Friday: They keep gradually nudging our weekend storm northward, increasing the expected amount of snow across Vermont, along with parts of New York and New Hampshire. 

This will be something of a traditional Vermont snowstorm: Surely noticeable, and something to take seriously, stay off the roads, etc. 

But it won't exactly be historic.  We have this kind of thing a few times each winter. I'm sure the folks who run ski resort aren't exactly complaining about this one. 

 I'm actually more worried about a second storm Tuesday night and Wednesday, which I will get into a little bit after dealing with this thing coming in tonight. 

SNOWFALL

Winter storm warnings are now in effect roughly south of a line from Middlebury to Wells River (south of St. Johnsbury). In this zone, six to 12 inches of snow ice expected between this evening and Sunday afternoon. 

It's a quick, rather intense storm, and much of this snow will fall in just a few to several hours roughly between midnight tonight and dawn Sunday. The snowfall rates could be as high as two inches per hours, says the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

Another zone in north-central Vermont encompassing Burlington, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury is now in a winter weather advisory. This area can expect three to six inches of snow. Snowfall rates could go as high as an inch per hour during the height of the storm Sunday morning. 

Snow will also fall all the way to the Canadian border but be lighter. Most areas near the Canadian border should see 2.5 to 4.5 inches.

There will still be adjustments to this forecast, as there pretty much always is in this situation. If that northern drift in the path of this storm continues, snow totals will go up near and north of Route 2, but stay very roughly the same or go up just little over current forecasts in southern Vermont. 

One wildcard is a band of especially intense snow that often sets up northwest of a storm like this. Under that band, the snow can be particularly intense and boost snow totals further. Unfortunately, it's very hard to determine ahead of time where this band will set up, if at all.  We'll just have to wait and see.

TIMING/IMPACTS

The snow should spread southwest to northeast across Vermont starting near Bennington a little before 8 p.m. or so tonight, and reaching the Northeast Kingdom by midnight or a little after.

The heaviest snow should come down from roughly midnight tonight to noon or a little after.  It'll probably most intense around dawn. 

In the southern half of Vermont, I wouldn't drive anywhere Sunday morning. Visibility will be atrocious, especially since the snow will also be kind of powdery and easily blown around. It'll be snowing hard enough so that the plows will have trouble keeping up.

In northern Vermont, it might not be quite as bad, depending on how far north the heaviest snow band get. But even there, plan on slippery roads, crappy visibility and that sort of thing. Probably a good idea to stay indoors up there, too. 

This is a pretty widespread dump of snow, by the way. A big area including most of central Pennsylvania, southern and central New York and most of central and southern New England away from the immediate south coast should see a good eight to 12 inches out of this as well.

I expect some flight delays and other travel trouble throughout the Northeast later today and tonight.

The snow will turn lighter during the afternoon, but linger into the evening, especially north and in the mountains. 

Given the fact that the snow will be on the fluffy side, this storm shouldn't cause any trouble with power outages. But I'm not so sure we'll be lucky with the next storm

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

I'm still not keen on getting to into detail with the next storm because we're still dealing with Sunday's snow, but it's worth a mention and update .

An impressive storm still looks like it wants to get going Monday and strengthen into a powerhouse as it moves northeastward from the Plains to the eastern Great Lakes between now and Wednesday.

It'll affect a huge area. Pretty much everybody east of a line from Arizona to North Dakota is going to have some pretty bad weather with this one. Everything from blizzards to ice, to severe weather and tornadoes, flooding and high winds are all on the table with the big midweek storm, depending upon where you are.

In Vermont, I'm still worried about high winds with the midweek storm.  It's still several days away, so things could change. But the forecasts right now hint at a classic western slope wind storm.  Worst case scenario, there could be widespread gusts over 50 mph, with 70 mph or more not out of the question.

Unlike Sunday's snowstorm, that's a recipe for power outages.  Also on the table for Tuesday night is freezing rain, then rain and possible minor flooding Wednesday. 

On top of all this, I see hints of another large storm in about a week from now. It's going to be busy, folks!