Monday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Details On Forecast Dangerous Damaging Winds/Snow/Rain

Tree damage after an intense wind storm in Vermont's
Champlain Valley in October, 2017. Gusts similar to
that storm are possible Tuesday night in parts of
western Vermont as an intense storm blusters through.

 It seems like all I do lately is offer updates on nasty storms approaching Vermont. But the weather pattern has gotten crazy at the moment, so I kind of have to.  

The forecast for the upcoming big storm hasn't changed much at all for a few days now.

That might not sound like big news, but it's important in one respect: It just gives credence to the forecast of a bad wind storm hitting Vermont tomorrow night. 

It really does look like the worst of the weather will hit overnight Tuesday, and start to get better during the day Wednesday. 

Here are the forecast updates as of late Monday afternoon:  

High winds

Strong winds continue to be the biggest threat from this storm. Western Vermont is at greatest risk. The highest winds should sweep through roughly between 9 p.m Tuesday and 4 a.m. Wednesday. 

The high wind watch has been upgraded to a high wind warning from the Green Mountains west to Lake Champlain and the New York border, with the exception of Grand Isle County, where a slightly lower grade wind advisory is in effect.

The concerning thing is this storm seems like it wants to have the characteristics of storms in October, 2017 and December, 2022.

Most of the downslope windstorms with strong east winds affect the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains - small towns like Mendon, Ripton, Huntington, Underhill, Cambridge, Bakersfield, Montgomery. 

The upcoming storm, like 2017 and 2022 appears as if it might be so strong that the angle of the downslope winds won't be as steeply downward as most storms.

 If that happens, some of the worst gusts could hit more populated areas of western Vermont. We're talking Cities and towns like Rutland, Middlebury, Burlington and St. Albans.

These wind events are a little hard to predict, but I'd stay on your toes in these bigger towns for gusts up to 65 mph. 

I know Green Mountain Power is already warning customers to expect power outages, and the utility has bolstered crews ready to start repairing power lines as soon as they can. Still, this storm has the potential for cutting power to tens of thousands of homes and businesses. Some might be without electricity for several days. 

Since this storm looks like it might be similar to December, 2022, remember this: In that case, 70,600 homes and business across Vermont lost power 

Get your LED candles out and ready, buy batteries if you need to before 4 p.m. Tuesday and have your devices charged by Tuesday evening, folks. 

Most of eastern Vermont is under a wind advisory, with expected gusts as high as 50 mph. That's not as bad as western Vermont. But the added danger there with the winds is......

Wet Snow Dangers

The first part of the storm looks like it will be accompanied by a good thump of heavy, wet snow in much of the state. A winter weather advisory is up for all of Vermont from the Green Mountains eastward. 

Three to seven inches of snow could fall, with locally more in the higher elevations. Most of this would hit before midnight.  The snow will all come within just a few hours, so the roads will turn into a mess, mostly after 5 p.m. This will also hit while winds are ramping up. This would exacerbate the expected power outage. 

After midnight the snow will likely change to rain. 

Western Vermont will probably see some snow, but it won't be as big a deal as in the rest of the state. 

Flooding

Although there is some risk of flooding, the chances of serious problems in Vermont are much less than points further south, like southern New York and eastern Pennsylvania.

That's because a portion of the precipitation we're getting in Vermont will be that thump of wet snow I talked about. The snow will turn to rain, and temperatures in the 40s will melt a bunch of the existing snow cover. 

So, there might be some ponding of water, minor washouts and lowland flooding. Maybe even a couple roads that get flooded. But this still doesn't look nearly as bad as the big inundation we had on December 18-19. River levels will come up, for sure. There might even be some water backing up into the lowland flood plains. 

Another Storm

It's still looking like another powerful storm will hit Vermont around Saturday. Not sure what the rain/snow ratio will be yet, but it looks like another nasty one. I honestly don't think all the power will be restored in Vermont from Tuesday night's storm by the weekend. And the weekend storm is looking windy enough to cause more power trouble.

We'll get into this one more after we get through the more immediate trouble.