Hype Machine Says Vermont Snowstorm Sunday; Reality Could Still Be Very Different

Just one of many depictions of a possible storm in the
Northeast Sunday. Despite appearances on this map.
it's way too soon to know whether it will come
far enough north to give Vermont any appreciable snow.

 You might have already heard the hype that we're supposedly finally getting a decent Vermont snowstorm this coming Sunday.  

The short answer is: It's possible, but don't bet on it. 

We do know that some sort of storm will affect some part of the eastern United States this weekend and somebody will probably get some snow out of it. 

But who, what and where is still an open question. 

The weather disturbance destined to help create this storm was still off the California coast this morning. 

When any weather system is off a coast, there's not much data available on it. The sparse data goes into the computer models. Since that data is so iffy, the computer models can be way, way off. 

Once this system moves inland later today and tomorrow, we'll have better data to feed into the computer models. Even with the new, better data, the computer models will still be off, but not as badly as they probably are now. 

As always. adjustments will keep coming right up until the time the storm strikes. Or doesn't strike. 

Right now, the big question for us in Vermont is how far north the storm comes, and thus, how much snow will be available.. Unlike recent storms, at this point, it does look like enough cold air would be available for snow, since a sort of chilly high pressure system in Quebec would feed subfreezing air into northern New England. 

Meteorologists use a location off the New England coast known as the 40/70 benchmark to get a rough idea of whether snow will hit from a passing nor'easter.  It's a good guide to determine whether snow will fall in Vermont, and whether the snow will turn to rain along the coast. 

The benchmark is 40 degrees latitude and 70 degrees west longitude, which is a point in the Atlantic Ocean about 80 miles south of Nantucket. 

If a storm tracks north and west of that 40/70 benchmark, chances are higher that Vermont gets a decent snow. If it's over or to the south and east of that point, not so much. 

With this forecasted Sunday storm, we still have no idea whether this thing will pass to the northwest or southeast of this benchmark. Which means we have no idea whether Vermont gets a snowstorm or not. 

The high pressure in Quebec could squash the storm southward, or the lack of any big weather systems in the Atlantic could allow the storm to scoot out to sea well to our south. 

On the other hand. If the storm is deeper than forecast, or if a weak storm near the Great Lakes is able to tug the main storm westward, then we get a decent snow.  The computer models can't yet tell us how this will play out. 

Bottom line: Wait until at least Thursday to make your Vermont weather and snow plans for this weekend.