Great Lakes, And Lake Champlain Remarkably Ice-Free

St. Albans Bay on Lake Champlain was entirely ice free on
January 4. While large areas of the lake are often ice-free
this early in the winter, shallow, sheltered areas like
this bay are usually frozen by early January. 

After the second warmest December on record in Vermont, there's precious little ice on Lake Champlain. And many other lakes in the Green Mountain State for the matter.  

Shallow parts of Lake Champlain are often frozen by now. I live not far from St. Albans Bay, which is quite often frozen by January 1, but as of Thursday, it was wide open.   `

Of course, the weather patterns could change, and the lake could freeze up very nicely later this month and in February. 

But there is a risk that this year could become another year in which ice fishing - a big tradition on Lake Champlain - could become unsafe like last year 

Three people died last February when they fell through thin Lake Champlain ice during a remarkably warm winter.  The 43rd annual Islands Ice Fishing Derby in mid-February was called off due to the unsafe ice. 

This year, even smaller lakes in Vermont were ice-free as 2024 dawned. People on Lake Champlain are also fretting. WPTZ interviewed Valerie Hunter, owner of Keeler's Bay Variety Store in South Hero. She said:

"It's really sad because it cuts down on a lot of things, a lot of recreation things. A lot of people ice skate on the lake, they play hockey on the lake, they do a lot of other things on the lake that they're not able to do."

I can't predict what will happen later this winter, but climate change is making it more likely that we'll see thin or even no ice on Vermont lakes. Lake Champlain has only entirely frozen over once since 2016, and then only for a brief time in March, 2019. (It came close to freezing over in 2022).

It's not just Lake Champlain. 

The Great Lakes started 2024 with remarkably little ice, reports the Washington Post:

"The Great Lakes had the smallest amount of ice cover this New Year's Day in a least the past 50 years and are on track to see less than the seasonal average this winter, according to government data. The decline comes during a five-decade drop in ice cover that experts say is due in part to human-caused climate change."

Like in Lake Champlain, there's a lot of year-to-year variability in ice cover. And the amount of ice cover can increase in a flash if intense cold waves invade the Great Lakes region later this winter. 

Unusual for this time of year: A couple and their dog
walk along an entirely ice free St. Albans Bay with
no snow on the ground on January 4, 2024. 

Still, the amount of ice on the Great Lakes was remarkably paltry as 2024 began.  

It's true the Great Lakes don't start freezing in earnest until January, but this is ridiculous. On Monday, only 0.35 percent of the Great Lakes were under ice, says the Washington Post. Normally, about 9 percent of those lakes are ice covered on New Year's Day. 

Recent years have been pretty lame with Great Lakes ice on January 1. Last year, they were 4 percent ice covered. The year before that, it was 2.35 percent. 

Great Lakes ice cover is important for several reasons. Ice prevents storms from stirring up large waves that can batter the shoreline.  Open water means a greater likelihood of lake effect snowstorms on days when cold winds blow over the water and gain moisture from the lakes.

Lack of ice  can hurt tourism, as a lot of people like to go ice fishing. On the other hand, open Great Lakes water helps the shipping industry. 

Although some of the Great Lakes like Huron, Erie and Superior have entirely frozen over in some years, the entirety of the Great Lakes has never completed become ice covered. 

On average, the maximum ice coverage of the Great Lakes is 53 percent. The coverage since the early 1970s has ranged from a peak of 95 percent coverage in the frigid winter of 1979 to a low of 12 percent in 2002.

In the thirteen years since 2000, only five years saw Great Lakes ice coverage exceed the long term average.