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| Compared to forecasts we saw this morning, expected ice accumulations depicted in this map released by the National Weather Service office in South Burlington have increased. Red areas should expect at least a quarter inch of ice. |
Settle in, folks, this is impossible to explain in 100 words or less, so here we go:
Cold air is being stubborn across northern and eastern Vermont, and that, I think, will make the ice a little more widespread than earlier forecasts. Not everyone will get freezing rain, but everyone will need to be on their toes.
Even in the Champlain Valley and southwestern Vermont, which I thought earlier would be mostly safe from any ice.
The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has hoisted a winter weather advisory for all of Vermont for ice, and a little snow in spots. The advisory runs from early Friday morning until 7 p.m. or so Friday evening.
However, some of the fun begins even before the real precipitation and ice arrive in the wee hours Friday morning.
Cold air has been draining into the northern Champlain Valley all day. It stayed at or below freezing here in St. Albans all day amid a dense fog. Interestingly, Burlington was a little above freezing all day, but dipped to 32 degrees at 4 p.m.
Elsewhere, most of Vermont was a little above freezing this afternoon.
We will see problems with dense fog in some areas this evening. Also, patchy freezing drizzle will make road conditions a little dicey and unpredictable in spots. This includes areas of Vermont outside the chilly Champlain Valley, as temperatures dip slightly through the evening hours.
FRIDAY
As the next in the series of modest but rather wet storms approaches tonight, east breezes on its northern flank looks like it wants to tug in some slightly colder air in the lower levels of the atmosphere from high pressure parked north of Maine.
This would make freezing rain more likely.
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| Water droplets remained frozen solid to tree branches all day in St. Albans, Vermont amid dense, cold fog. |
The fun will start before dawn and continue through the morning commute hours. So the timing stinks. I still expect some school closings, or more likely school opening delays on Friday.
Like the last round we had late Wednesday and early today and despite the current chill, the Champlain Valley looks marginal for rain vs. freezing rain Friday.
I imagine it'll be patchy, with some areas fine, others icy. And temperatures there, and in some other parts of Vermont will probably fluctuate near the freezing mark during the precipitation all day Friday.
Remember, even if it's a little above freezing, ice could still form on driveways, back roads, overpasses and deeper valleys.
Areas from the Green Mountains east are much more likely to see freezing rain instead of rain, but even there, it might be patchy.
Also, with temperatures so close to turning things icy, there's tremendous bust potential in the forecasts. It's possible we end up with quite a bit more ice than forecast, or quite a bit less.
So it'll be a crap shoot as to who gets icy, who stays wet. Just assume if you need to drive to work or school tomorrow chances are you'll encounter ice somewhere.
At least for awhile.
IT'S COMPLICATED
That cold air being pulled in from the east by this storm will gradually take up a thicker and thicker layer of the atmosphere. So during the day, rain or freezing rain will slowly mix with and change to a little sleet and some wet snow
That changeover process will start in the Northeast Kingdom in the morning, then spread west and somewhat south during the day.
This is actually good news for parts of northern Vermont because it would cut down on the amount of freezing rain that will fall. If this pans out as expected, there won't be much snow, even in the Northeast Kingdom. Up there, it'll probably amount to one to three inches.
I'm not even sure the snow will reach the Champlain Valley. If it does, it won't amount to much. Central Vermont will probably see an inch or less of snow.
Southern and central Vermont is least likely to see snow and sleet. Which means - if Thursday evening forecasts are correct - some areas in and near the Green Mountains from about Sugarbush south could see a good quarter inch of new ice from the freezing rain.
Especially in spots where any ice didn't really melt today, this puts the risk of scattered power outages in play. Remember, in most ice storms, power outages begin at least on a limited basis if there's a least a quarter inch of ice.
I still don't expect widespread power outages, but I do think there will be a few problems.
BEYOND FRIDAY
We still have a lot of question marks about the weekend.
Saturday looks gray, overcast, gloomy and mild. We could see some patchy wet snow here and there, but it won't amount to much.
On Sunday, Vermont gets caught in a squeeze play. Some colder air from Canada wants to push southward into our neck of the woods. Meanwhile, the last of a series of storms will head northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico.
Will that storm come far enough north to give us snow later Sunday into Monday? Or will that push of cold, dry air from the north shove that storm southward and out of our hair?
It's a tossup.
At this point, southern Vermont looks most likely to see snow, with chances dwindling the further north you go. The good news is if the Sunday/Sunday night storm comes far enough north to bother Vermont, it'll give us snow, and not freezing rain.
Remarkably, unless there's a big surprise, it still looks like there are no subzero blasts of Arctic air in the forecast at least into early February.
This winter's reputation continues: Not cold at all, but gawd, the weather has still been awful.
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