Saturday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Snow Forecast Largely Unchanged, But Expect Surprises

As of Saturday afternoon, snow accumulation forecasts
from the National Weather Service office in South
Burlington, Vermont are barely changed from this
morning, maybe nudged up a tiny bit. 

 As of this afternoon, there was already a little light snow coming down in several parts of Vermont. That's a little earlier than I anticipated. 

It's just a weak piece of energy ahead of the main storm that's creating a little lift in the atmosphere.

 The snow won't amount to much early this evening, but it is making the roads a little greasy in spots,

The main show continues to be overnight and Sunday. There are some subtle shifts in the forecast since this morning. That's typical right before a snowstorm as meteorologists refine their predictions based on the latest data.

Before I get into it, I will promise there will be surprises here and there with this storm, as there is with every snowstorm ever in Vermont. A few unexpected places might get more than forecast, a few others might have a relatively deep snow surprise.

All in all, though, this will be a pretty typical winter snowfall for Vermont.

That said, let's get into it

ACCUMULATIONS

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington hasn't changed their forecast much since this morning. 

They've added Washington County, around Montpelier and Barre to the winter storm warning - they were only under a winter weather advisory this morning. It looks like those areas will likely see close to or a little more than six inches of snow.  

A little bit of snow falls in St. Albans, Vermont late
Saturday afternoon ahead of the main show overnight
and Sunday across most of the state.

Everything south of there still remains under the winter storm warning. 

The National Weather Service has also extended the winter weather advisory northward. Instead of stopping in north-central Vermont like it did earlier, it now extends to the Canadian border. Accumulation forecasts have gone up a little in the far north, with three to five inches now expected.

That said, I do think there might be some "losers" in this storm, areas that get cheated out of most snow they can get. 

Since this storm has an east wind for us, which is typical of a coastal storm, the Green Mountains might "shadow" areas along the western slopes. They might get a little less snow than surrounding areas.

Parts of the Northeast Kingdom are in the same boat. The White Mountains of New Hampshire should block some moisture with those wet east winds. 

A few places in the NEK might see as little as two inches out of this. Bummer, dude.

TIMING

The schedule for the storm hasn't changed much, either, though the start of the heavier snow has been pushed back a couple hours. Most of Vermont should get into the steady snow after 10 p.m. tonight. But interestingly, the far Northeast Kingdom might need to wait until Sunday morning to see any real snow.

The NWS has also played with the timing of the very heaviest snow a little bit. They're now expecting a pretty good thump of snow generally in the hours around midnight and a little after. Then there might be a bit of lull before dawn. After that, the storm's heaviest dump might  come between dawn and noon Sunday. 

We're still looking at the possibility of a deformation band to set up perhaps somewhere in Vermont Sunday morning. A deformation band is a stripe of heavier snow that sets up on the northwestern flank of a New England coastal storm.

They're hard to forecast in advance. It might not happen. If it does, I have no idea where in Vermont it would set up. Best chances would be in central, southern or southeastern Vermont.  

This storm really does have pedal to the metal, so it will be offshore by afternoon, with snow waning here in Vermont by mid afternoon.  

For some of the western slopes cheated by the shadowing earlier in the storm, there might be a bit of   "backside bonus," those persistent post-storm snow showers that cling to the Green Mountains and their western slopes, especially north of Route  well into the evening. 

EFFECTS

We're still looking at lousy travel conditions later tonight and most of the day on Sunday. Stay home if you can. 

We need snow, since we're really short on it this year. Ski areas are going to love this, even if the powdery consistency is short lived, with an expected thaw and rain storm midweek. 

Vermont low elevations in particular are having a snow drought. Only about eight inches of snow has fallen this season in Burlington, for instance. The city should have had close to 30 inches by now. 

The storm tonight and Sunday will fall well short of making up for that snow deficit.  And if the longer range forecasts are to be believed, no new big dumps snow are in the offing for more than a week at least.