Tuesday Morning Calm But A Very Noisy, Wild (And Dangerous) Storm Looms For Vermont/Eastern U.S.

The latest wind gust forecast map from the National 
Weather Service office in South Burlington, Vermont.
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see.
if you look closely, you can see little pockets of 
possible gusts over 80 mph in the western slopes
of the Green Mountains and the Adirondacks.

 It was overcast, a little foggy and calm as we started this Tuesday, much like it's been all winter.

But as I have been yelling about for days now, we in Vermont - and the entire eastern United States -  do have quite a storm on the way starting this evening and peaking overnight. 

If the storm pans out like I think it will this will be a pretty memorable storm. On par with the pre-Christmas storm in December, 2022.    

High winds are still the biggest danger from this storm. Pretty much all of Vermont should see wind gusts of 45 to 65 mph overnight, peaking roughly around midnight.

 I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if some of the most wind-prone areas along the western slopes of the Green Mountains seen gusts in their 70 to 80 mph range. 

Heads up, places like Underhill and Cambridge, and maybe Ripton, Mendon,  Bakersfield and Montgomery.

High Wind Details

The high wind warning in effect for all of Vermont along and west of the Green Mountains (except Grand Isle County) has been expanded into Essex and Orleans counties. 

 Overnight, the high winds a few thousand feet overhead will be strengthening as they pass over the Northeast Kingdom. Mountain there can help grab those winds and bring them down to the surface along mountain slopes. 

In eastern Vermont, winds won't be quite as strong, with gusts to maybe 50 mph. But there will be more wet, heavy snow there than further west. So problems overnight with power outages and fallen trees will be statewide. 

The strongest winds will blow very roughly from 9 p.m. tonight to 4 a.m. Wednesday. For the rest of the day Wednesday, the winds will be gusty, but not nearly as dangerous. But enough to hamper and slow down cleanup. 

In addition to high winds, three to seven inches of
heavy, wet snow in all of Vermont except the 
western valleys will make the wind damage to
trees and power lines worse overnight. 

If you don't have batteries, LED candles, headlamps and such in hour cupboard, go out and buy them this morning to mid-afternoon.

 Chances are you'll need them overnight. Charge your devices during today, too. I specify LED candles instead of ones with real flames, because candles that actually burn are a fire hazard.

As mentioned yesterday, it might not be the worst idea to take down your Christmas decorations if you haven't already, because they'll just end up blowing around. 

Especially if you live in a wind-prone area and have lots of trees looming over your house, consider staying on the ground floor and away from windows overnight.  

Some of the strongest gusts threaten some structural damage, too, like blown off shingles and siding, damage to weaker structures like sheds, barns and greenhouses and unsecured metal roofs. 

Plan ahead, too. For some people power outages might last a few days. Plus, to make matters worse, another nasty wind storm looks like it's brewing for Saturday, which would set back repair efforts. 

Wet Snow

We're still looking at a thump of wet snow for Vermont tonight, mostly along and east of the Green Mountains. This will be a mess because of the strong winds ramping up while it's snowing. 

The snow loading and wind will really do a number on trees. Especially since the wind will make the snow loading unbalanced. It'll really stick to the south and east side of trees and power equipment, making them more prone to toppling over in that direction. 

The expected three to seven inches of soggy snow this evening is more than enough to make matters worse than they would be with just strong winds. 

Definitely stay off the roads overnight. Between the snow covered, slippery roads, and the falling branches and trees, it's just too much. Many rural and back roads will be probably be blocked by fallen trees anyway, so getting somewhere will be an issue. 

Be wicked careful if you want to help. In these situations, great neighbors whip out their chain saws and remove trees blocking roads, and driveways and such.  Watch for power lines entangled in those trees, they might be live. If you're out in the storm trying to clear trees, other branches and trees might fall on you in the wind and snow. 

For the record, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is telling us that tonight, we should  avoid forested areas or spots with a lot of trees and branches overhead. 

Don't help unless you know what you're doing. 

Flooding

I'm not super worried about flooding in Vermont with this, except maybe in far southern parts of the state. The snow will turn to rain after midnight. (And the valleys of western Vermont will get mostly rain out of this entire event).

The rain and thawing in most of Vermont will probably cause sharp rises in rivers, but with no serious flooding. Poor drainage areas, clogged culverts, steep slopes and such will probably see some scattered damage, but this will probably and thankfully fall far short of the serious flooding we saw in December.

The southernmost two counties of Vermont are a potential trouble spot. They'll have heavier rain than further north and perhaps warmer temperatures. So if there's any notable problems from flooding in Vermont, it'll probably end up being there. 

Bennington County is under a flood watch overnight and Wednesday. 

ELSEWHERE IN THE UNITED STATES

A s expected, wild weather is hitting much of the nation.

As I write this, I'm getting news of tornadoes in the Florida Panhandle. A "confirmed large and dangerous tornado" was on the ground in Marianna, Florida.  About an hour after the first one, another possible tornado was heading toward Mariana. 

A bit earlier, a damaging tornado hit Panama City, Florida. Videos taken during and after the tornadoes shows quite a bit of damage. 

More tornadoes-  some possibly strong - are a good bet today in parts of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. 

Forecasters are increasingly worried about serious flooding in Connecticut, the New York City metro area, New Jersey and parts of Pennsylvania today.

Torrential rains amounting to up to four inches, combined with fast-melting snow left over from Sunday's storm is sure to cause some dangerous flooding in those areas. 

Up in northern New Hampshire and Maine, winter storm warnings are up for more than six inches of wet snow and high winds.