Chilly, Dry, Windy In Vermont To Yield To Warmer, Dry, Windy, But Rain Chances Sunday Night??

Ice in the bird feeder here in St. Albans, Vermont
today. Time to take that in with everything else,
as we are in the hunker down for winter season.

Thursday was a delightful, if cool and gusty day in western and southern Vermont, while the Northeast Kingdom stayed socked in with the clouds. 

My husband and I spent much of our bright, gusty day Thursday dismantling our summer setup and starting to hunker down for winter.  

Frost sensitive plants are safely indoors, hoses are emptied of water, rolled up and stored away, some of the perennials are cut back, (I'm working on that), and deck furniture is put away.

It's a little sad to say this final goodbye to the warm season. But, the cycle goes on, and we'll be enjoying cocktails and mocktails on warm sunny summer evenings in the comfortable deck furniture, surrounded by flowers in no time, right?

The gusty winds felt like they were adding urgency to the fall tasks, which aren't nearly fully completed yet. There's so much work to do to prepare for winter, isn't there? .We'll get there. 

The weather will cooperate with this work, for now. Today will be another great day to do more of those tasks. The sunshine will be back, the wind by and large will not be. 

We're starting off cold again this morning, with most everyone west of the Green Mountains below freezing. Clouds east of the Greens kept some normally cold spots above 32 degrees. 

The sunshine will spread into the Northeast Kingdom today as well, so everybody will get to enjoy it. We'll stay sort of on the cool side, with highs in the 50s today. Another frost will come in tonight. Nothing odd for mid-October. 

Saturday still looks like the pick of the week. The sun will stay out, temperatures will warm to near 60 degrees and a south breeze will start to pick up in the afternoon. 

The wind will be back Sunday, especially in the Champlain Valley. Winds there could gust to 40 mph as temperature rebound to 70 degrees or so. 

Despite the expected warmth on Sunday, those gusty south winds are another sign of winter's approach, Storm and cold fronts become stronger in the late fall and winter, so they're able to stir up more wind. From now until spring, you'll notice strong south winds, mostly in the Champlain Valley, anytime a cold front or storm lies to our west. 

RAIN CHANCES

Sure enough, Sunday's winds are signs of a solid cold front approaching, and that will come through Sunday night and Monday. 

This will introduce a fairly brief, but welcome spell of unsettled, cloudy, and occasionally rainy weather much of next week.  

The first band of rain should be in and out of here Monday, with lingering showers going into Tuesday. Hot on the heels of the cold front will be a modest storm that should spread more rain across the Green Mountain State Wednesday and Thursday. 

This won't be by any stretch of the imagination be a drought buster, but any precipitation will be welcome. 

I don't have a good bead on how much rain we'll get but it should be a moderate amount.  The drought won't go away, but we're hoping the rain will prevent the drought from getting worse. If we get lucky, the rain might very marginally improve things. 

Remember how I said we're hunkering down for winter?  Well, there's uncertain signs that we could get chilly enough to see some snow flurries in Vermont about a week from now, maybe next Friday. If it does snow, it won't amount to anything. 

But it is a reminder to get moving on your autumn chores. 

Tuesday Vermont Early Season "Heat Wave" Over-Performed, After Quick Cold Shot, Spring Warmth And A Flood Threat Menaces

After a sunny day Tuesday with record warmth, an
approaching cold front brought some menacing
looking clouds, but no rain late in the 
day over St. Albans, Vermont. Those clouds 
only cluttered the sky briefly. 

That was certainly a nice flash of spring in Vermont Tuesday, wasn't it?

Many towns saw highs in the low to even mid 60s, so the one-day heat wave over-performed. High temperatures exceeded what had been forecast. 

Burlington reached 66 degrees, for a new record high for the date. The old record was 64 degrees set in 2021. Tuesday was the warmest day since November 6, 2024.

High temperatures in some other towns included 68 degrees in Bennington and Plattsburgh, New York. Plattsburgh's high was also a record for the date.  Rutland reached 65 degrees. Both Montpelier and St. Johnsbury managed 61 degrees.

Temperatures can occasionally get into the 60s even in January, but that's relatively rare. According to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, Tuesday's readings in the 60s came a little early than normal

According to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, the average date for the first 60 of the season is March 27, but the first 60 has occurred as early as January 4, 1950 and as late as April 30, 1972. (Don't get me started about the spring of 1972, the coldest, most awful wintry spring in memory). 

Tuesday's was a windy warmth, as gusts reached as high as 46 mph in Burlington.

Here's a bonus. Though a lot of snow melted, Tuesday's little heat wave was too brief to make us worry about flooding. Sure, a few small creeks got a little rambunctious, but I have no reports of flooding or anything close to it as of this morning.

Now that it's briefly cold again, the runoff from yesterday's snow melt has tapered off, too.

That, however does not mean we're out of trouble. A flood threat is looming in Vermont for this coming weekend and early next week, especially Sunday and Monday.   More on that in a bit. 

TODAY

Back to winter, for one day. It still looks like much of northern Vermont will never make it above freezing today. Some clouds will increase, and there might be a couple snowflakes in the mountains of central and southern Vermont. No biggie, though. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

A warm up starts again. Southerly winds and at least some sunshine will boost temperatures well into the 40s.  A few low 50s might pop up in the warmest valleys. Friday should get well into the 50s in many Vermont towns. 

The sun setting on Tuesday over St. Albans, Vermont
on a day that brought record highs in the 60s.

Then the heat and the trouble really start after that. 

First off, it turns out last week's thaw and ice jams did cause some damage in Vermont. The Crossett Brook Middle School in Duxbury, Vermont suffered flooding and was forced to close for several days. The nearby Crossest Brook developed an ice jam that diverted water toward electrical vaults in back of the school.

The vaults were damaged enough to divert some of the water behind the ice jam into the school. Several classrooms and offices were flooded by several inches of water, WCAX reported. 

This is the second time in eight months the school was flooded.  The school was damaged when the Crossett Brook flooded during our disastrous flood of July 10-11, 2024.

Which leads me to the next flood threat.  New damage last week to the school was caused in part by an unstable river bank and damage left from the last summer's event. 

THE WEEKEND

It's going to turn very warm this weekend. By Sunday, temperatures will be well into the 60s. Possibly 70 if any place gets a little sunshine. 

These would normally be record high temperatures, but Sunday's weather comes on the anniversary of a bonkers March heat wave in 1990 that brought Vermont temperatures into the upper 70s. 

Unlike the 1990 hot spell, which hit with little snow on the ground and was not accompanied by rain, there's a flood threat for sure this weekend. 

Yesterday's brief hot spell came amid very dry air. Snow does not melt as rapidly. in dry air even if it's super warm,  like it was on Tuesday. 

Snow does melt faster when it's humid. Dew points, a measure of how humid it feels, could go all the way into the 50s by Sunday.  That's awfully high for March. Additionally, nights this weekend will stay well above freezing too, so we won't have any slow downs in the rate of melting.

On top of all that, early guesses bring a half inch to as much as an inch of rain to Vermont Sunday and Sunday night. 

The combination of snow melt and rain could end up being the equivalent of a few to several inches of rain falling on the Green Mountain State.

FLOOD PREP

We don't yet know how bad the flooding will get and which river basins will have it the worst. But I do believe at least some flooding is inevitable. Hard to say if it will be just minor or worse than that. I'd plan on something worse than nuisance flooding, just to be on the safe side with this one. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is recommending that people in flood prone areas start working on their flood plans now if not sooner. 

For instance, if your home or business has a lot of stuff stored in the basement and the basement floods when the rivers get high, start moving things out now. (I'm looking at you, cities like Montpelier and Barre).

Rivers could rise rapidly, especially if an ice jam forms. There's still a lot of ice on some sections of Vermont rivers, and there's even a few pre-existing ice jams that could get worse during the thaw.

That means you'll need to be ready to flee really quickly. if the water starts coming up quickly.  Get your to go bags together this week in case bad things happen Sunday. And if bad things don't end up happening, well, you had a good practice run for future events.

Watch this space for updates through the rest of the week and the weekend for any flood threat updates in Vermont.  

The Rain Is Here, New England Girds For Floods, Wind, Storms

Who stole the snow? About five or six inches of 
snow that was on the ground yesterday in St. Albans
disappeared overnight as rain and warm temperatures
hit. The continued snow melt today along with
heavy rain through this evening continues the
flood risk in Vermont into Thursday morning. 

Well our storm is here, and the flood watches, high wind alerts and even severe thunderstorm possibilities are in place in various parts of New England. 

My first reaction when I got up this rainy Wednesday morning in St. Albans, Vermont was "Who stole the snow?" The four or five inches of snow that was on the ground yesterday was almost completely gone by 7 a.m. 

That ongoing snow melt, especially from the deeper snow cover up in the higher elevations, will contribute to the flood threat later on.   

This one qualifies as a so-called bomb cyclone, which means it's intensifying quickly. When storms are in such an intensifying phase, they tend to cause the most mischief. 

Which is why so many bad things will happen today. 

Yes, I know I'm being dramatic, as I still don't think this will be catastrophic, like the kind of stuff we endured in the summers of 2023 and 2024. Here in Vermont, it won't be the worst flood of the year, which isn't saying much, given how much we suffered through in the downpours and torrents of July.

New England-wide, though there will be power outages, downed trees, and flooding extending through the entire region by the time this is done. 

The worst of the winds will hit far eastern New England, from Rhode Island up through Maine. Winds could gust over 60 mph, maybe 70 mph late this afternoon and tonight, which will definitely complicate things because those regions, too, will be dealing with flooding.

The storm's cold front will probably have a line of storms extending from southern New England to the Southeast. In eastern North Carolina and extreme southeast Virginia, this could spin off a couple of tornadoes. In Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts, the threat is strong winds with severe thunderstorms along a squall line late this afternoon or this evening. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The threat in Vermont continues to be almost exclusively the risk of flooding, though we will have some issues with a possible flash freeze early Thursday. And winds could get strong enough to cause some isolated power outages. 

The forecast hasn't changed a bit since yesterday. At least so far. 

As of 8 a.m. the rain had only really just begun in earnest. Less than a quarter inch of rain had fallen by then. But also by 8 a.m.. the radar had really filled in with plenty of rain across the state. It was coming down hard in many towns.

It'll rain at a pretty good clip through the morning, then maybe things will get a little lighter and more showery for a time late this morning and early afternoon.  Then it will come down hard again later this afternoon and the first part of tonight. 

That's when the trouble starts.  The small streams, creeks, marshes and standing water will tend to over flow, which isn't good at night because you can't really see what's going on. If you're out driving - especially after 4 p.m. - you'll want to watch two things:

First, the heavier rain will lead to a hydroplane risk if you're out on the highways. Slow it down, people.e

The second, bigger risk is if you're on a rural road, back road or what have you. You want to go really slow so you can see whether there's water across the road up ahead, or if the edges of the road are eroding.

If you see that, stop right there. Don't go through the water, as you don't know how deep it is, or whether the road beneath is still there.  If you see erosion, what appears to be solid road next to it might be undermined.

So just turn around and find another way to get where you're going. Better yet, if you're home and your house isn't in a flood-prone area, just sit tight tonight, relax and listen to the rain drum on your roof.

I don't know whether this will get bad enough to force any evacuations. I don't anticipate anything large scale. But if the worst happens and local emergency managers tell you to get out, then leave. Immediately. If your home is particularly flood prone, have a "to go" bag ready so you can just grab that and run if things get out of control in a hurry. 

Again, I don't expect anything like we saw during the flash floods of July 10-11, but it's worth it to be prepared if you have the bad luck to be in a worse-than-expected situation. 

I have noticed towns and cities have geared up for this event, as they've been through the drill so many times, unfortunately. Rutland, for example, has made sandbags and generators ready in case parts of the city get overrun with water. 

As far as the main rivers go, as of 8:30 a.m. I was waiting for updated flood crest forecasts.  The main rivers in Vermont should rise to their peak levels after midnight and through the morning Thursday. At least for the most part. 

Also, temperatures will crash overnight, and rain will change to a brief period of snow. The snow, combined with the water on the roads will freeze up, making for another crappy commute Thursday morning. On top of that, low lying roads might be under water, so you'll have to adjust plans if you usually go through places like North Williston Road to get where you're going. 

One weird thing that will happen after this storm is a real  change in air pressure. This storm is strong, so the barometric pressure is on the low side, though not threatening any records.

The strong high pressure system coming in though, will have remarkably high barometric pressure. It will come close, but very likely not break the record for highest air pressure on record in Vermont in December.

Such a strong high pressure system means it'll probably be really chilly Thursday and Friday nights, with lows by Saturday morning in the single numbers to low teens. Not super odd for December, but a reminder that we're still just at the start of winter. 

Be safe out there folks!

Tuesday Morning Calm But A Very Noisy, Wild (And Dangerous) Storm Looms For Vermont/Eastern U.S.

The latest wind gust forecast map from the National 
Weather Service office in South Burlington, Vermont.
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see.
if you look closely, you can see little pockets of 
possible gusts over 80 mph in the western slopes
of the Green Mountains and the Adirondacks.

 It was overcast, a little foggy and calm as we started this Tuesday, much like it's been all winter.

But as I have been yelling about for days now, we in Vermont - and the entire eastern United States -  do have quite a storm on the way starting this evening and peaking overnight. 

If the storm pans out like I think it will this will be a pretty memorable storm. On par with the pre-Christmas storm in December, 2022.    

High winds are still the biggest danger from this storm. Pretty much all of Vermont should see wind gusts of 45 to 65 mph overnight, peaking roughly around midnight.

 I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if some of the most wind-prone areas along the western slopes of the Green Mountains seen gusts in their 70 to 80 mph range. 

Heads up, places like Underhill and Cambridge, and maybe Ripton, Mendon,  Bakersfield and Montgomery.

High Wind Details

The high wind warning in effect for all of Vermont along and west of the Green Mountains (except Grand Isle County) has been expanded into Essex and Orleans counties. 

 Overnight, the high winds a few thousand feet overhead will be strengthening as they pass over the Northeast Kingdom. Mountain there can help grab those winds and bring them down to the surface along mountain slopes. 

In eastern Vermont, winds won't be quite as strong, with gusts to maybe 50 mph. But there will be more wet, heavy snow there than further west. So problems overnight with power outages and fallen trees will be statewide. 

The strongest winds will blow very roughly from 9 p.m. tonight to 4 a.m. Wednesday. For the rest of the day Wednesday, the winds will be gusty, but not nearly as dangerous. But enough to hamper and slow down cleanup. 

In addition to high winds, three to seven inches of
heavy, wet snow in all of Vermont except the 
western valleys will make the wind damage to
trees and power lines worse overnight. 

If you don't have batteries, LED candles, headlamps and such in hour cupboard, go out and buy them this morning to mid-afternoon.

 Chances are you'll need them overnight. Charge your devices during today, too. I specify LED candles instead of ones with real flames, because candles that actually burn are a fire hazard.

As mentioned yesterday, it might not be the worst idea to take down your Christmas decorations if you haven't already, because they'll just end up blowing around. 

Especially if you live in a wind-prone area and have lots of trees looming over your house, consider staying on the ground floor and away from windows overnight.  

Some of the strongest gusts threaten some structural damage, too, like blown off shingles and siding, damage to weaker structures like sheds, barns and greenhouses and unsecured metal roofs. 

Plan ahead, too. For some people power outages might last a few days. Plus, to make matters worse, another nasty wind storm looks like it's brewing for Saturday, which would set back repair efforts. 

Wet Snow

We're still looking at a thump of wet snow for Vermont tonight, mostly along and east of the Green Mountains. This will be a mess because of the strong winds ramping up while it's snowing. 

The snow loading and wind will really do a number on trees. Especially since the wind will make the snow loading unbalanced. It'll really stick to the south and east side of trees and power equipment, making them more prone to toppling over in that direction. 

The expected three to seven inches of soggy snow this evening is more than enough to make matters worse than they would be with just strong winds. 

Definitely stay off the roads overnight. Between the snow covered, slippery roads, and the falling branches and trees, it's just too much. Many rural and back roads will be probably be blocked by fallen trees anyway, so getting somewhere will be an issue. 

Be wicked careful if you want to help. In these situations, great neighbors whip out their chain saws and remove trees blocking roads, and driveways and such.  Watch for power lines entangled in those trees, they might be live. If you're out in the storm trying to clear trees, other branches and trees might fall on you in the wind and snow. 

For the record, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is telling us that tonight, we should  avoid forested areas or spots with a lot of trees and branches overhead. 

Don't help unless you know what you're doing. 

Flooding

I'm not super worried about flooding in Vermont with this, except maybe in far southern parts of the state. The snow will turn to rain after midnight. (And the valleys of western Vermont will get mostly rain out of this entire event).

The rain and thawing in most of Vermont will probably cause sharp rises in rivers, but with no serious flooding. Poor drainage areas, clogged culverts, steep slopes and such will probably see some scattered damage, but this will probably and thankfully fall far short of the serious flooding we saw in December.

The southernmost two counties of Vermont are a potential trouble spot. They'll have heavier rain than further north and perhaps warmer temperatures. So if there's any notable problems from flooding in Vermont, it'll probably end up being there. 

Bennington County is under a flood watch overnight and Wednesday. 

ELSEWHERE IN THE UNITED STATES

A s expected, wild weather is hitting much of the nation.

As I write this, I'm getting news of tornadoes in the Florida Panhandle. A "confirmed large and dangerous tornado" was on the ground in Marianna, Florida.  About an hour after the first one, another possible tornado was heading toward Mariana. 

A bit earlier, a damaging tornado hit Panama City, Florida. Videos taken during and after the tornadoes shows quite a bit of damage. 

More tornadoes-  some possibly strong - are a good bet today in parts of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. 

Forecasters are increasingly worried about serious flooding in Connecticut, the New York City metro area, New Jersey and parts of Pennsylvania today.

Torrential rains amounting to up to four inches, combined with fast-melting snow left over from Sunday's storm is sure to cause some dangerous flooding in those areas. 

Up in northern New Hampshire and Maine, winter storm warnings are up for more than six inches of wet snow and high winds. 

  

Monday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Wobbles Continue In Forecast Amounts

Snow forecasts are generally unchanged in Vermont since
this morning but the afternoon updated map gives a little
more snow to northern Vermont than previous forecasts

As I anticipated, the expected snowfall with our just-about-to-start storm keeps changing a little bit with each updated forecast.  

For those of you who like certainty, I've got bad news: These forecasts will continue to shift even as we go through the actual storm. 

Interestingly, the latest forecast snowfall map issued this afternoon is remarkably similar to the one the National Weather Service issued Saturday afternoon.  The forecasts since Saturday have kept shifting up and down a little bit, and now we're back where we started from.

In hindsight, I guess they should have just kept running with Saturday's map. But nobody would have known that. Plus, there's no way this afternoon's forecast map is entirely accurate. Subtle shifts in temperature, wind and moisture will make big differences on what we actually end up with. 

What gives me confidence in the overall forecast is the broad brush idea remains similar to what was in the forecast as long ago as last Friday. 

SOUTHERN VERMONT

Far southern Vermont, especially the high elevations, is still part of ground zero for this storm. 

Expected accumulations in Bennington and Windham counties keep shifting a little, just as they are for the rest of the region. But new snow will be deep, especially uphill from the lowest valleys. You're still screwed down there. 

Many areas of the south will pick up at least a foot of snow. Some places might pile up 18 or more inches. It will be a wet, heavy snow propelled by wind, so power outages are still inevitable. 

It has already been snowing off and on in the high elevations of southern Vermont this afternoon. There hasn't been much accumulation so far. Traffic web cams showed that high elevation Route 9 was still clear of snow as of 5 p.m.  

High elevations in southern Vermont remain ground zero 
for the heaviest snow accumulations. Vermont Agency of
Transportation web cam grab from 5 p.m. Monday 
shows light snow already starting to accumulate just a 
bit along Route 9 in Marlboro.

That will change overnight. The snow will gradually pick up in intensity, and it will be snowing hard by morning. The bulk of the snow will come down during the day Tuesday and into at least part of Tuesday night. 

On Tuesday, snow will come down at a rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour, which is a lot for a wet snowstorm. 

Depending on where the heaviest snow bands set up, it could go to three inches per hour at times, which is pretty incredible. Winds might gust to 45 mph, so in a few local spots, near-blizzard conditions might develop. 

For those of you in southern Vermont, especially south of Route 4, get your supply runs done early this evening. Get the LED candles ready and charge your devices. And just hunker down tomorrow and tomorrow night and wait for the worst of it to pass

It's still be windy and snowy Wednesday, especially in high spots, but the intensity of the snow will definitely wane through the day.

No surprise that there is a winter storm warning in effect for this part of Vermont. 

CENTRAL VERMONT

Statewide, this storm will really be a matter of elevation. Warmer valleys will have a wetter, denser snow, which might melt just a bit during daylight hours Tuesday. Higher elevations will be better able to accumulate sno.

All this is especially true in central Vermont, roughly between Route 2 and Route 4. Lower spots, like along Route 7 between, say Clarendon and Burlington, will have bursts of slushy snow, maybe mixed with a little rain during the day Tuesday before going solidly to snow Tuesday night. 

Accumulations in those valleys by mid-morning Wednesday could end up being up to five, six or seven inches of snow with the consistency of wet cement. Yeah, that'll break your back and your shovel.

Go uphill just a bit,  and you get a lot more snow. From Ludlow, all the way up through rather high elevation towns like Mount Holly, Shrewsbury, Chittenden, Ripton, Warren and Fayston could easily get a foot of snow out of this. 

Although the snow won't be as wet and slushy in the higher elevations, it will still fall well short of fluffy. So, snow loading on trees and power lines will cause trouble here, too. High winds will make it worse Tuesday through Wednesday. 

If the storm system jogs a little more northwest than forecast, as a few computer models indicate, there might be more snow than forecast.

Most of central Vermont is under a winter storm warning for an expected 6-12 inches of snow.  In the Champlain Valley, a slightly less dire winter weather advisory is in effect because lower elevations of Addison County stands a good chance of receiving a little less than six inches of snow.

NORTHERN VERMONT

This is still the wild card part of Vermont. The guidance has pushed up the expected moisture a bit so a little more snow might fall in the north than we saw in earlier forecasts. 

Most of Vermont north of Route 2 hadn't been under any winter weather alerts until this afternoon. A winter weather advisory was extended northward to cover all of the north except Franklin and Grand Isle and western Chittenden County. 

Areas covered under the advisory can expect four or five inches of snow, with winds gusting to 35 mph. 

The northern Champlain Valley is outside the advisory, but it does look like there might be a little more snow than originally forecast.  For instance, Sunday evening, 1.4 inches of new snow was forecast in St. Albans. This evening. St. Albans has been told to expect 2.9 inches. 

That's still not a lot, but you can see the trend. 

Meteorologists have noticed that northwestward trend in the models, so the Champlain Valley could actually end up with more than that two or three inch forecast. 

What gives some mets pause is that the past couple of storms the forecasts kept nudging storms northward to give the Champlain Valley more snow, only for that to not happen. 

The worst and best case forecasts for the northern Champlain valley are still all over the place. This morning, the low and high range for snow fall in St. Albans was somewhere between 0 and 10 inches. Tonight, that range is between 2 and 12 inches. 

I doubt St. Albans will get 12 inches of new snow, but I expect surprises in northern Vermont, much more so than the south. I'm not sure if areas north of Route 2 will get more or less snow than expected, but it probably won't be three inches. 

Although I don't expect widespread power issues in northern Vermont, some high elevations might see enough wet snow and strong winds to cause brief, isolated problems. 

ELSEWHERE

Unfortunately, as I noted in a post several weeks ago, an agricultural disaster will start tonight in the Southeast.

Just like in 2012, 2017 and 2018, spring came way, way prematurely in the South, causing crops like peaches and blueberries to bloom much sooner than they should.

And, just like in 2012, 2017 and 2018, a strong storm in New England is pushing cold air into the Southeast. Nasty frosts and freezes are likely tonight and tomorrow night from Arkansas to the Carolinas. 

I expect millions of dollars in damage, at least, to crops through that region. 

Closer to home, the Catskill Mountains in New York, Berkshires in Massachusetts and southwest New Hampshire are still under the gun for up to two feet of wet snow. Maybe more in a few spots. Lighter snow, but heavy rain, damaging winds and coastal flooding are due in New England, Long Island and 

Sunday Morning Storm Update: Southern Vermont Still Looks Like The Big Target

The latest snow forecast from the National Weather 
Service depicts a not big deal 3 to five inches of 
snow far north to a terrible, heavy wet foot and
a half far south. Southern Vermont looks 
locked in for a big storm. Far northern Vermont is
still a wild card. Up there, they could get far
more, or far less than what's depicted on this map.

 Today will be a lovely one to get outside before the weather in Vermont goes downhill in a hurry. 

Aside for increasing high clouds this afternoon ahead of the storm, we'll have a decent amount of sun for a change. It'll only get up to 40 degrees or so, but the sun and expected light winds will make it feel warmer than it really is. 

All great for winter sports, not bad for sugaring, and a small amount of snow will melt to make just a little room for the new snow that's coming. 

THE UPDATE

While all of Vermont is in for some lousy weather with the incoming, giant storm, it's still looking like it will be just a nuisance in far northern parts of the state, but a real challenge south. 

Most of the two southernmost counties of Vermont are now expecting nearly a foot and a half of snow. It's not out of the question that a couple high elevations in far southern Vermont could see more than two feet of snow out of this. So that's up there in the list of would be historic storms.

These areas missed much of the snow this winter, so I guess they're getting their comeuppance of sorts. 

This is going to be a heavy, wet snow, accompanied by quite a bit of wind. This is a recipe of a lot of power outages and tree damage.  Under this scenario, some power outages could last a few days. 

Central Vermont will be in somewhat less trouble, but will still have some real problems with this storm. Most of this area can expect 5 to 12 inches of wet snow. Though not as bad as a foot and a half, this is more than enough to cause trouble with power outages. 

The places in central Vermont that will be closer to a foot of snow are the usual suspects in somewhat higher spots on or near  the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. We're talking towns like Ludlow, Cavendish, Mount Holly, Shrewsbury, Killington - that neck of the woods. 

Northwestern Vermont is still the real wild card in this storm.  Will a surge of moisture dump a fair amount of snow up there? Or will dry air from Quebec squash that idea?

The National Weather Service has these worst case and best case scenario maps that go either way of the official prediction.  The maps show what would happen if the storm really over-performs or under-performs. 

In this case, the northern Champlain Valley is really questionable. For instance, the official forecast snowfall for St. Albans is 3.1 inches.  But the worst and best case maps give St. Albans either absolutely no snow, or as much as 10 inches.  Either extreme likely won't happen, but you can see the forecast challenge. 

Part of the issue is the time of year.  When it's snowing hard during the day in March, it can really pile up. If it's just light snow with thinner clouds, the sun's warmth can get through.  So the snow will often melt as it hits, or mix with rain. That might be part of the issue in northern Vermont along and north of Route 2. 

TIMING

Some light rain and wet snow could break out Monday afternoon. For the evening commute, I don't think it'll be that big a deal, except maybe a little bit in higher elevations. 

Overnight Monday, the precipitation will gradually pick up speed and the snow will start to accumulate. In low elevations, the snow could be mixed with some rain well into the evening. 

Where the heaviest snow hits, Tuesday will be the main show. Dense, wet snow will come down amid gusty winds in at least a few places. So you know what that will do to power lines and travel. 

The snow will ever so slowly taper off Tuesday night and Wednesday as the huge storm finally starts heading eastbound away from the New England coast. It'll stay windy through Wednesday, so power outages might continue into midweek.

WHAT TO DO

If you're in  northern Vermont, be on guard. This storm might be a bit of a big deal, or it could be a nothing burger.  If you need to run errands, do it today or Monday morning, just in case.  

In central and especially southern Vermont, get ready to stay home, and not travel on Tuesday. Also, stock up for possibly long power outages. That means get your  batteries, LED candles and all that set up.  Don't use candles with real flames. They're a fire hazard. If a blaze starts, don't count on the fire department to get to your place readily during the height of the storm.

Note that secondary and back roads in particular might not only be blocked by snow, but by fallen trees, branches and power cables. 

By the way, the Hudson Valley of New York, Catskills, much of New Hampshire, western and northern Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut are in the same boat as southern Vermont, so cancel your travel plans for those areas Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. 

Coastal New England, New York and New Jersey face heavy rain and snow, strong winds and possible shoreline flooding. 

The First Truly Hard Core Winter Week Of The Season In Vermont Is Here

Just one of many forecast maps that show the Polar Vortex
right near us in southern Quebec at the end of the week.
This will create a brief, but intense Arctic blast in Vermont 

If you have been waiting for a true Vermont winter, this will be your week. 

Colder weather started last night. It will stay cold,  then colder, then ridiculous as the week wears on. By the time Friday and Saturday come along wind chills will be solidly in the 30s and 40s below. Temperatures might or might not get above zero Friday and Saturday afternoons. 

Friday night and Saturday morning, it will be in the teens below in the "banana belt" towns right near Lake Champlain and in some far southern Vermont towns. For pretty much everybody else, it will be in the 20s below. Actual temperature, not wind chill.

It might seem late to dig out your winter gear, but now's the time to do it.

Before we get there, the first half of week won't be too bad, at least not by Vermont standards. But the warm weather is gone. Though this will be the longest period we've had below freezing all winter. It dipped below 32 degrees last evening and will stay there for awhile. 

Wind chills this morning, actually are in the single numbers, so kind of cold. Roads might be icy in spots this morning, especially north, where a little wet snow fell, then froze yesterday. Up here in St. Albans, we collected 1.4 inches of slush, which then turned mainly to an icy snow cover once temperatures dropped.

More little disturbances in the atmosphere should touch off more light snow today and tonight. Most places will only see an inch or so of new snow, but the ski areas of northern Vermont are probably in for a good three or four inches. 

Today's little packet of snow will reinforce the gathering cold, so it will only make it into the upper teens for highs on Tuesday. That will make it the chilliest day since December 24 in Vermont. 

We'll get a false sense of security on Wednesday and Thursday as temperatures actually moderate to normal for this time of year - which means 20s for highs. Really not bad! 

Then the hammer hits.

ARCTIC BLAST

The polar vortex, that whirl of intensely cold Arctic air that pretty much always spins somewhere in the high latitudes in the winter, has spent pretty much this entire winter a safe distance from us here in Vermont. It's been way, way north and pretty compact, so that opened the door for mild Pacific air to make cross country trips to New England. 

Now, the polar vortex is stretched, and about to take a quick plunge, ending up way south, into southeastern Quebec by Friday. 

That is more than close enough to give us a taste of true Arctic  air. 

A cold front will blast through Thursday night with some good snow showers, and temperatures will take the plunge.

It will be a horrible Friday with actual temperatures holding in the low single numbers or even falling. Strong north winds will blast in, leading to those intense wind chills. 

Though the wind will relax somewhat Friday night, the temperatures will plunge to the minus 20s, as mentioned. 

 A cold snap of this intensity is also in one respect worse than other, similar ones we've had in the past. During most winters, we've usually gotten used to a few subzero mornings, so 20 below wouldn't seem like that much of a stretch. 

This year, it IS a stretch. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is already sounding the alarm about the fact that this will come as a shock, and we might be unprepared. In their forecast discussion this morning, the NWS wrote, "Extra caution will likely be needed to combat complacency built up through what has been an abnormally warm winter thus far."

One thing to worry about is cars and trucks haven't been put through the wringer yet this winter with intensely cold air. They break down easily in subzero temperatures. 

I expect to see a lot of cars disabled on the roads Friday through Saturday morning. Since tow truck operators might be busy, it could take awhile to get rescued if your car dies. 

This is a great time to stock your vehicle with extra blankets, clothes, high energy snacks and such. 

Also, make sure your gas tank is filled right before the cold hits. 

Check your home fuel supply now and get ahold of your dealer today if it's getting low. They'll have a lot of emergency calls during the cold snap, and might not get to you very fast if you run out. 

A frigid house with frozen water pipes is a terrible place to be. 

While you're at it, check on your elderly neighbors especially to see if they're stocked up and ready for this.  It probably isn't a bad idea to hit the grocery store between now and Thursday afternoon to stock up on supplies. Maybe stuff to make a hearty stew to have during the cold snap.

SHORT LIVED

In an earlier post, I mentioned this winter could be like 2007. That one started warm, then turned frigid for March and April. At this point, though, this winter is looking more like 2016.  It was a warm winter throughout, except for one, big Arctic blast in mid-February.

The Arctic cold that's coming Friday and Saturday is not going to stick around. The polar vortex will get swept east and north, kind of fall apart a bit, and start to reorganize well to the north again. 

By Sunday afternoon, we'll pop back up in the balmy 25-30 degree territory as it looks now. Long range forecasts call for normal or even above normal temperatures starting Sunday and going into mid-February. 

 

Dangerous Day: Strong, Long-Lasting Tornadoes Menace Large Area In South

Area in pink is under a high risk of tornadoes today and tonight
The broad red area surrounding the pink also has a 
significant risk of strong tornadoes.

UPDATE: 12:30 p.m. EDT

The National Weather Service at this out is expected at any minute to issue a special type of tornado warning called a Particular Dangerous Situation warning.

This is reserved for the rare times when a weather hazard is especially, super life-threatening.

All the ingredients seem to be coming together, especially in Mississippi and Alabama, for a prolonged period this afternoon and tonight with a strong risk of intense, long-lasting tornadoes. 

There is one area in particular along the Mississippi/Alabama border where 

there is a 45 percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles within a given point in that zone.

That is really an extraordinarily high risk, among the top probabilities on record. This is only the sixth time in the past 15 years in which there was such a high risk. 

I honestly don't know how we're going to get through today and tonight without tornado fatalities. Just praying the strongest, longest lasting tornadoes stay out over rural, open country. 

This tragic show should begin by mid-afternoon. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

Thunderstorms, a few of them severe, were roaming around parts of Texas and Oklahoma early this morning, clueing us in to what will be a dangerous tornado day in many southern U.S. states.  

I already saw at least one tornado warning in Arkansas before dawn today. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) pasted a high risk zone for severe weather, including the likelihood of strong, long-tracked tornadoes in an area centered around Mississippi.  

The SPC has five alert levels for severe storms, "high" obviously signaling the biggest danger.  

High risk storm alerts are fairly rare, only being issued on average once or twice a year. 

A broad area encompassing most of Alabama, much of Louisiana and Arkansas and southwestern Tennessee is in almost as strong a risk for large, dangerous tornadoes today and tonight. 

The risk is so great that tornado shelters are opening for people in Mississippi and Alabama today.  The governor of Alabama has already declared a state of emergency ahead of the storms. This move activates emergency response centers, among other things. 

A number of school districts have either shut down classes for the day or will have early dismissals.  They don't want kids in vulnerable schools, or worse out on the highway in school buses, during tornadoes.

People are also being urged to have bicycle or motorcycle helmets in their safe spaces to wear if debris falls during a tornado.  It's also helpful to have an air horn with  you.  If you can't get out, rescuers will find you if you're blowing that horn. 

If you have friends and relatives in the South, let them know now about the risk, especially if they tend not to be weather aware. 

THE POVERTY FACTOR

As meteorologist and severe storms expert Stephen M. Strader pointed out on Twitter last evening, the highest risk of tornadoes coincides with a zone where there is a lot of poverty. Strader calls the situation "a recipe for fatalities."

Think about it. People who have money live in sturdier homes, often with basements where they can take shelter in a tornado. They have many ways to receive tornado warnings, such as weather radios, phone apps and big screen TVs. They can move temporarily into a hotel if their home is damaged. They have insurance. They have sick leave at work, so on a stormy day, they can hunker down. 

Many poor people live in flimsy structures, often mobile homes. They might not have access to weather radios  or phone apps.  The areas under the gun today and tonight in Mississippi and Alabama has some of the highest concentration of mobile homes in the nation.

People who live in mobile homes are being urged to leave now, and go to tornado shelters or to friends and relatives who live in sturdy buildings. 

However, low-wage people often aren't allowed to take time off from work, or don't get paid if they don't show up. Somebody's got to take care of the kids. They don't have the money to gas up the car and waltz into some shelter. So, they'll take their chances and stay put in their mobile homes.

There's Strader's recipe for fatalities.  This is all another excellent argument in favor of a living wage for Americans. 

MULTIFACETED DANGER

A lot of other factors make today and tonight's expected tornado outbreak dangerous. 

The storms will come in multiple waves. Mississippi is expecting three rounds of dangerous weather. Round one is early this morning, as there already is a tornado watch in effect for northern Mississippi as dawn breaks.

Another much more significant threat of powerful supercell thunderstorms with tornadoes this afternoon, and another round of powerful storms and likely tornadoes tonight. 

The forward motion of the storms today and tonight will be quick. So that means less lead time between the time warnings are issued and the moment when the tornado hits. 

Risk for more damaging tornadoes continues tomorrow,
especially for the area depicted in red

Since there will be multiple areas of dangerous storms happening all at once, who's getting hit where and who's in danger at the moment will be confusing, especially for the public who might not know which county they live in, or exactly where the warning is. 

The National Weather Service and local meteorologists do a fantastic job with warnings, but they have only so much control over how people react to the warnings. 

As I've pointed out before, when people receive tornado warnings, it's human nature to seek visual confirmation a tornado is coming.  Do you see a funnel cloud? Is there debris in the air? When you get a tornado warning, you're not supposed to go out and look for the twister. But people do.

In this weather situation, common in the South, the tornadoes are often hidden behind dense bursts of rain, so you can't see them.  There's a lot of trees and hills in the South, so that blocks the view of oncoming tornadoes, too. 

As I noted yesterday, many of the strongest tornadoes with this likely outbreak will hit well into the night, when people are sleeping.  It's harder to warn people of danger at that hour. 

The threat of significant tornadoes will continue tomorrow as the storm system heads east.  The biggest threat for those tornadoes will be in fairly heavily populated areas of the Carolinas and Georgia.