Tuesday Vermont Early Season "Heat Wave" Over-Performed, After Quick Cold Shot, Spring Warmth And A Flood Threat Menaces

After a sunny day Tuesday with record warmth, an
approaching cold front brought some menacing
looking clouds, but no rain late in the 
day over St. Albans, Vermont. Those clouds 
only cluttered the sky briefly. 

That was certainly a nice flash of spring in Vermont Tuesday, wasn't it?

Many towns saw highs in the low to even mid 60s, so the one-day heat wave over-performed. High temperatures exceeded what had been forecast. 

Burlington reached 66 degrees, for a new record high for the date. The old record was 64 degrees set in 2021. Tuesday was the warmest day since November 6, 2024.

High temperatures in some other towns included 68 degrees in Bennington and Plattsburgh, New York. Plattsburgh's high was also a record for the date.  Rutland reached 65 degrees. Both Montpelier and St. Johnsbury managed 61 degrees.

Temperatures can occasionally get into the 60s even in January, but that's relatively rare. According to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, Tuesday's readings in the 60s came a little early than normal

According to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, the average date for the first 60 of the season is March 27, but the first 60 has occurred as early as January 4, 1950 and as late as April 30, 1972. (Don't get me started about the spring of 1972, the coldest, most awful wintry spring in memory). 

Tuesday's was a windy warmth, as gusts reached as high as 46 mph in Burlington.

Here's a bonus. Though a lot of snow melted, Tuesday's little heat wave was too brief to make us worry about flooding. Sure, a few small creeks got a little rambunctious, but I have no reports of flooding or anything close to it as of this morning.

Now that it's briefly cold again, the runoff from yesterday's snow melt has tapered off, too.

That, however does not mean we're out of trouble. A flood threat is looming in Vermont for this coming weekend and early next week, especially Sunday and Monday.   More on that in a bit. 

TODAY

Back to winter, for one day. It still looks like much of northern Vermont will never make it above freezing today. Some clouds will increase, and there might be a couple snowflakes in the mountains of central and southern Vermont. No biggie, though. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

A warm up starts again. Southerly winds and at least some sunshine will boost temperatures well into the 40s.  A few low 50s might pop up in the warmest valleys. Friday should get well into the 50s in many Vermont towns. 

The sun setting on Tuesday over St. Albans, Vermont
on a day that brought record highs in the 60s.

Then the heat and the trouble really start after that. 

First off, it turns out last week's thaw and ice jams did cause some damage in Vermont. The Crossett Brook Middle School in Duxbury, Vermont suffered flooding and was forced to close for several days. The nearby Crossest Brook developed an ice jam that diverted water toward electrical vaults in back of the school.

The vaults were damaged enough to divert some of the water behind the ice jam into the school. Several classrooms and offices were flooded by several inches of water, WCAX reported. 

This is the second time in eight months the school was flooded.  The school was damaged when the Crossett Brook flooded during our disastrous flood of July 10-11, 2024.

Which leads me to the next flood threat.  New damage last week to the school was caused in part by an unstable river bank and damage left from the last summer's event. 

THE WEEKEND

It's going to turn very warm this weekend. By Sunday, temperatures will be well into the 60s. Possibly 70 if any place gets a little sunshine. 

These would normally be record high temperatures, but Sunday's weather comes on the anniversary of a bonkers March heat wave in 1990 that brought Vermont temperatures into the upper 70s. 

Unlike the 1990 hot spell, which hit with little snow on the ground and was not accompanied by rain, there's a flood threat for sure this weekend. 

Yesterday's brief hot spell came amid very dry air. Snow does not melt as rapidly. in dry air even if it's super warm,  like it was on Tuesday. 

Snow does melt faster when it's humid. Dew points, a measure of how humid it feels, could go all the way into the 50s by Sunday.  That's awfully high for March. Additionally, nights this weekend will stay well above freezing too, so we won't have any slow downs in the rate of melting.

On top of all that, early guesses bring a half inch to as much as an inch of rain to Vermont Sunday and Sunday night. 

The combination of snow melt and rain could end up being the equivalent of a few to several inches of rain falling on the Green Mountain State.

FLOOD PREP

We don't yet know how bad the flooding will get and which river basins will have it the worst. But I do believe at least some flooding is inevitable. Hard to say if it will be just minor or worse than that. I'd plan on something worse than nuisance flooding, just to be on the safe side with this one. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is recommending that people in flood prone areas start working on their flood plans now if not sooner. 

For instance, if your home or business has a lot of stuff stored in the basement and the basement floods when the rivers get high, start moving things out now. (I'm looking at you, cities like Montpelier and Barre).

Rivers could rise rapidly, especially if an ice jam forms. There's still a lot of ice on some sections of Vermont rivers, and there's even a few pre-existing ice jams that could get worse during the thaw.

That means you'll need to be ready to flee really quickly. if the water starts coming up quickly.  Get your to go bags together this week in case bad things happen Sunday. And if bad things don't end up happening, well, you had a good practice run for future events.

Watch this space for updates through the rest of the week and the weekend for any flood threat updates in Vermont.