Vermont Could Actually Use Some Soaking Rains, But None Forthcoming For Awhile

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor has southeastern
Vermont still in moderate drought (orange)and most
of the rest of the state listed as abnormal dry
(yellow shading)

 Now that most of the snow has melted, in low and mid elevations of Vermont, we are faced with - believe it or not - the need for more soaking rains. 

It probably doesn't seem like we do, given the muck underfoot and the miserable mires that are mud-season dirt roads have turned into.

However, last autumn's drought  has not entirely gone away.  

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, issued Thursday, has southeastern Vermont still in moderate drought.  Aside from areas near the Canadian border, the rest of the state is regarded as abnormally dry.  

Ground water levels have not fully recovered from last autumn's dryness.  

We could use some deep, drenching soaking rains ahead of the growing season to really recharge the groundwater.  The best scenarios would be slow, day long rainstorms that each dump an inch or two of rain in Vermont.  

Short, sharp bursts of heavy rain would just run off and create a risk of flash floods. Which is why I actually hope we have a few to several miserably wet days over the next month or two, interspersed of course with sunny, mild spells of spring weather. 

Friday morning's rain and snow dropped maybe a quarter to a half inch of rain and melted snow, so it wasn't all that impressive. 

We do have frequent chances for rain and some snow in the coming ten days or so. There could be surprised, but for now, unfortunately, it looks like all the storms in the pipeline will only deposit brief periods of light precipitation. 

Current forecasts have Vermont receiving a quarter to half inch of rain or melted snow over the next seven days. That is not at all an impressive amount of precipitation. 

Things could still turn around, of course. It would be best to see the heavy rains before the trees leaf out, as those leafy trees pull a lot of water from the ground. But even after leaf out, if it's wetter than average, we'll be OK. 

This isn't just a Vermont thing.  

Much of the Northeast, especially Maryland, New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeastern New York and southeastern New England are still having drought problems, issues that have plagued the region since early last autumn

FIRE SEASON

With or without drought, it's also brush and wildfire season in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast. Things haven't greened up yet, so all that dead brush and leaves and grasses from last year is dry and pretty combustable.

In the early spring, we often get bouts of sunny, windy weather with low humidity. . It's amazing how fast things dry out on those kinds of days, even after some rain or snow the day before. 

Here in Vermont, we already had a pretty high fire danger Wednesday and Thursday due to windy weather with dry air. The rain and snow early yesterday has greatly diminished the fire risk yesterday and today. But that's only temporary. 

Despite scattered bits of rain and snow later Saturday and Saturday night, we might have another fire risk day on Sunday. 

It will be cold, but under sunny skies, the humidity is forecast to be incredibly low. With northwest breezes, dry brush could really catch fire quickly and spread out of control. 

This occasional risk of brush and wildfires in Vermont should diminish once everything greens up.

But as noted, it would be helpful if we got some soaking rains.