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| Latest snow forecast map issued by the National Weather Service office in South Burlington early Friday. Map is through 8 p.m Sunday but virtually all the snow you see here will hit late tonight and Saturday. Areas in yellow would see the most snow, with at least six inches in those spots. |
Saturday looks UG-LEE in Vermont.
We're still looking at a horrible mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain that will last from late tonight through Sunday.
SATURDAY'S MESS
Although overall forecasts have not changed much since yesterday, we really won't know who gets the heaviest snow and the worst icing until we're into the event.
It all depends on where and how this wavering, pretty much stalled weather front sets up.
If forecasters are wrong on the position of the weather front by as little as 20 or 30 miles, then current predictions would be incorrect one way or another. It's virtually impossible to forecast the exact position of a sluggish warm or cold front, so that's why all the meteorologists are hemming and hawing about how much awfulness comes down from the sky Saturday and where.
For now - again this could well change - it looks like northern Vermont from very roughly Route 2 north will stay with mostly snow on Saturday where four to eight inches of fairly wet snow would pile up.
Just south of that, we should see a band of mixed precipitation, including quite a bit of freezing rain. That ice is part of a lengthy band of freezing rain and schmutz that is or will be extending along a lengthy band from northern Minnesota, through upper Michigan, across southern Ontario and on into Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
Again though, don't be surprised if the snow and ice areas end up shifting northward or southward unexpectedly.
Here in Vermont, the precipitation will come down pretty heavily at times. Between the fairly wet snow, and the ice, I expect some power outages to develop here a there.
And we know the roads will be atrocious.
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| The latest ice accumulation forecast from the National Weather Service. This map could change drastically by tomorrow, depending on shifts in the forecast Areas in red are where at least a quarter inch of ice would accumulate. Once you get to a quarter inch, you start to lose tree branches and some power lines. |
Toward the end of March, when snow falls lightly, it can melt when it hits the pavement because of a higher sun angle allowing heat to penetrate the clouds.
But snow and ice will be coming down heavily enough, from thick clouds, so that we won't really get a break from the early spring sun.
Expect snow and ice covered roads all day, mostly but not exclusively in the northern half of the state.
If you have to drive anywhere, do it today, as we're not expected any weather problems whatsoever until tonight.
it looks like there will be a fair amount of plain rain during the day Saturday in far southern Vermont.
But precipitation could begin as ice early Saturday, go over to rain, then switch back to freezing rain Saturday night as cold air temporarily bleeds southward all the way to near the Massachusetts border.
SATURDAY NIGHT
That risk of freezing rain in southern Vermont Saturday night is because that front will drift southward overnight, flooding all of Vermont with chillier air from Quebec. Briefly, anyway. Precipitation probably won't come down all that heavily Saturday night, but those areas receiving a little more freezing rain will see a little more weight added to trees and power lines, so that could risk some trouble.
SUNDAY
That front will slowly lift back north starting early in the day. As it looks now, freezing rain will redevelop, but gradually change to a cold rain during the day. Parts of eastern Vermont might have trouble getting above freezing you get well into the afternoon
That makes me worried about really thick accumulations of ice in a few locations by Sunday. Once ice from freezing rain gets to be a quarter inch thick or more, you start to lose a few tree limbs and power lines.
Once the ice gets to a half inch thick or more, you really start to risk widespread tree damage and big time power outages.
This morning's ice forecast maps from the National Weather Service - again, definitely subject to change - has a pretty wide area of central Vermont seeing about a quarter to maybe third of an inch of ice.
Those maps also shows small, limited areas of Vermont with at least a half inch of ice. But it's going to be a close call. We'll need to keep an eye on this in case some more widespread areas get a lot of ice. If it looks like we might see more freezing rain than expected, the winter weather advisory would be upgraded to an ice storm warning for a few sections of the state.
Even where ice turns into a cold rain Sunday, the snow and ice won't immediately begin to melt all that fast. Temperatures will hold in the 30s most of the day, so the schmutz on the ground will just soggier.
We'll have to wait until later Sunday night and Monday to see any hint of a return to spring.
MONDAY
Still looking weird.
Temperatures - at least for awhile - will rocket upwards into the 50s to maybe some 60s as the rain continues and it turns sort of oddly humid for this time of year. The rain and the rapidly melting snow and ice from the weekend could lead to some flooding problems. It's a little early to predict how much if any flooding we'll see.
Rivers will certainly go up, but whether they spill their banks is an open question. But so far it's not looking too serous.
There could conceivably even be a few non-severe thunderstorms mixed in on Monday.
It's another thing to keep an eye on, though.
A sharp cold front Monday night will plunge us into the 20s, so all that remaining water out there will freeze up. At least by later Monday night the precipitation will have been mostly flushed away.
After a cold for the season but bright Tuesday, another storm looks to come along by Thursday. That one likely will turn out to be mostly rain, and probably not as big as the fun we're going to have this weekend.
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