Sunday Morning Storm Update: Death Toll Up To At Least 34, Tornadoes To Wind Down; Vermont Still Expecting Flooding

Tornado destruction his weekend in
Diaz, Arkansas, Photo via Facebook
by Ronnie Burgess 

The death toll from the storms that rolled through the United States rose to 34 as of early this morning.

Twelve of the deaths were caused by tornadoes in Missouri. In Mississippi, six people are dead, three are missing and 29 are injured. 

In Kansas, eight people lost their lives, not in tornadoes, but because they got caught in blinding dust storms on highways, causing numerous crashes. 

The bottom line is this was the most U.S. deadly disaster so far this year. The January wildfires in California caused 29 deaths. 

More tornadoes swept through the South Saturday, causing more destruction.  Today, more tornadoes could strike in a stripe from western Pennsylvania to Florida. A tornado warning was already effect early this  morning a little north of Augusta, Georgia. 

So far there have been at least 58 reports of tornadoes from the Midwest to Southeast Friday and Saturday. 

After today and tonight, the storm should finally depart the United States after leaving that trail of wildfire destruction, dust storm debris, tornadoes and flooding. 

New storms will cross the nation in the coming weeks with more packets of severe storms, tornadoes and wind, but these next storms so far do not look as intense as the one the U.S. has just endured.

VERMONT WARMTH/FLOODING

The "Woof River" what I call the tiny stream running
by my St. Albans, Vermont home, was running high
and muddy yesterday amid rapid snowmelt and
temperatures in the upper 60s. If you look closely
at the black soil on the left, you can see daffodil
shoots starting to come up. The area in this
photo was buried in snow and ice just three days ago. 

After a very warm Saturday and overnight last night, water levels in rivers are starting to rise.  Those water levels were still well below flood level this morning, but will continue to come up today as the snow continues to melt away.

High temperatures Saturday reached 67 degrees in Burlington, and 69 degrees in Bennington, and all the way to 70 degrees in Rutland.  As of 7 a.m. this morning, the temperature had not gotten below 50 degrees in Burlington. That's warmer than I've seen on some July early mornings. 

The expected rainfall has been postponed just a bit until the end of today.  That will allow temperatures to hit 70 degrees in the warmer towns today. That's a good 30 degrees above normal for this time of year, so it's pretty incredible. 

The bottom line to all this is remaining snow will continue melting very fast and contribute to the risk offloading. 

So far, flood forecasts call for a few rivers to reach at least minor flooding.  The Mad River is expected to get to 10.5 feet tonight, which is just a little under moderate flood stage.  The Otter Creek in Center Rutland, and the Missisquoi River in North Troy are also forecast to reach flood stage.

Other rivers - so far - are forecast to not quite reach flood stage.  However, water levels this morning were generally a little higher than predicted. Which means it's possible that flood levels could get a little higher than this morning's flood crest predictions. 

We'll also have to keep an eye on smaller streams and creeks.  Rapid snow melt can turn a small stream into a torrent pretty quickly.  We could see local washouts and culvert damage. Especially since things are still unstable from last summer's flood. That could make things a little more susceptible to damage. 

One bit of good news is predicted rainfall tonight in Vermont is a little less than previous forecast. Still, it will be briefly heavy, with a chance of a rumble of thunder.  Expect a third of an inch to an inch of rain in most place in the Green Mountain State between now and midday Monday. 

As of this morning, there's still ice on some of the river.  We still might see some ice jams, which can cause some rapid local flooding.  I think the most likely river to see any ice jams is the Missisquoi.

Needless to say, a flood watch remains in effect for all of Vermont through Monday evening. 

It's actually going to stay on the warm side this coming week.  Not as warm as this weekend, but still balmy for March. It looks like we might get a little more rain, too.  However, by then, so much snow will have melted that I'm not too worried about renewed flooding.

By the way, the water level of Lake Champlain is starting to rise, and will continue to do so.  But the chances of ever reaching flood stage are iffy.  It depends on how much snow and rain falls the rest of this spring, and how intensely it falls.

Flood stage is 100 feet. As of yesterday, the lake level was at 95.44 feet, up about half a foot in the sag week. That pace of lake water rise will accelerate the next few days, but will stop short of flood stage.

Lake Champlain probably won't flood significant this year unless the rest of the spring is particularly rainy and snowy.