Sunday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Winds Cause Issues Before Rains

Gusty winds, very warm temperatures and chaotic cloudy
skies this afternoon over St. Albans, Vermont preceded
some rain that will enhance the flood risk overnight.
Most of the flooding will from rapidly melting snow.

 Some strong, gusty winds have been able to develop especially in western Vermont this afternoon, hinting at just how dynamic the storm that afflicted much of the United States has been. 

I'd estimate peak gusts at my St. Albans hillside house at between 50 and 55 mph. I heard some large branches breaking in the woods up behind the house.  Gusts have reached at least 48 mph in Burlington. 

Vermont Outages reported nearly 2,000 homes and businesses without power late this afternoon, mostly i northwest Vermont, where the winds have been strongest.

A wind advisory is in effect until 10 p.m. tonight for Vermont along and west of the Green Mountains. 

It was super warm today, as you might have noticed. It reached at least 70 degrees in Burlington, tying the mark for the fourth earliest 70 on record. 

Until 1990, the earliest 70 in Burlington was March 23, 1938. The earliest 70 on record is now on February 25, 2017. That's one example of how climate change has really altered the weather record books 

The dew point, a measure of humid it is out there, has gotten into the low 50s in some spots. That's extremely humid for March (but not for August, BTW).  Humid, windy air melts snow faster, so it's probably really disappearing fast from those areas that still have snow.    

As far as flooding goes, the forecast hasn't changed. Mostly minor flooding as expected as the snow melt rushes down from the hills and mountains.  River levels continue to run a little higher than forecast late this afternoon. Probably because more snow has melted than originally thought. 

However, slightly less rain tonight than earlier predictions might offset that. It should only rain hard for two or three hours later this evening until around midnight or a little after. There might even be a rumble of thunder or two with this.  Light rain will follow into Monday morning. with several additional hours of light rain. 

Still, the amount of snow melt can be unpredictable, so there could be some surprises in flood plains here and there early Monday. 

Needless to say, Vermont is still under a flood watch now through most of Monday. 

I noticed some weird little blips and quick rises and falls of water levels along the Mississquoi River. That indicates ice is still moving on the river and there could be some ice jams. 

I'd pay attention to road conditions early Monday. We're certainly not going to have snow or ice to worry about. But some low-lying roads might be flooded.

Also, with this prolonged, intense thaw, mud season has gotten off to a miserable start. I'd image some dirt roads are virtually impassable. 

Sunday Morning Storm Update: Death Toll Up To At Least 34, Tornadoes To Wind Down; Vermont Still Expecting Flooding

Tornado destruction his weekend in
Diaz, Arkansas, Photo via Facebook
by Ronnie Burgess 

The death toll from the storms that rolled through the United States rose to 34 as of early this morning.

Twelve of the deaths were caused by tornadoes in Missouri. In Mississippi, six people are dead, three are missing and 29 are injured. 

In Kansas, eight people lost their lives, not in tornadoes, but because they got caught in blinding dust storms on highways, causing numerous crashes. 

The bottom line is this was the most U.S. deadly disaster so far this year. The January wildfires in California caused 29 deaths. 

More tornadoes swept through the South Saturday, causing more destruction.  Today, more tornadoes could strike in a stripe from western Pennsylvania to Florida. A tornado warning was already effect early this  morning a little north of Augusta, Georgia. 

So far there have been at least 58 reports of tornadoes from the Midwest to Southeast Friday and Saturday. 

After today and tonight, the storm should finally depart the United States after leaving that trail of wildfire destruction, dust storm debris, tornadoes and flooding. 

New storms will cross the nation in the coming weeks with more packets of severe storms, tornadoes and wind, but these next storms so far do not look as intense as the one the U.S. has just endured.

VERMONT WARMTH/FLOODING

The "Woof River" what I call the tiny stream running
by my St. Albans, Vermont home, was running high
and muddy yesterday amid rapid snowmelt and
temperatures in the upper 60s. If you look closely
at the black soil on the left, you can see daffodil
shoots starting to come up. The area in this
photo was buried in snow and ice just three days ago. 

After a very warm Saturday and overnight last night, water levels in rivers are starting to rise.  Those water levels were still well below flood level this morning, but will continue to come up today as the snow continues to melt away.

High temperatures Saturday reached 67 degrees in Burlington, and 69 degrees in Bennington, and all the way to 70 degrees in Rutland.  As of 7 a.m. this morning, the temperature had not gotten below 50 degrees in Burlington. That's warmer than I've seen on some July early mornings. 

The expected rainfall has been postponed just a bit until the end of today.  That will allow temperatures to hit 70 degrees in the warmer towns today. That's a good 30 degrees above normal for this time of year, so it's pretty incredible. 

The bottom line to all this is remaining snow will continue melting very fast and contribute to the risk offloading. 

So far, flood forecasts call for a few rivers to reach at least minor flooding.  The Mad River is expected to get to 10.5 feet tonight, which is just a little under moderate flood stage.  The Otter Creek in Center Rutland, and the Missisquoi River in North Troy are also forecast to reach flood stage.

Other rivers - so far - are forecast to not quite reach flood stage.  However, water levels this morning were generally a little higher than predicted. Which means it's possible that flood levels could get a little higher than this morning's flood crest predictions. 

We'll also have to keep an eye on smaller streams and creeks.  Rapid snow melt can turn a small stream into a torrent pretty quickly.  We could see local washouts and culvert damage. Especially since things are still unstable from last summer's flood. That could make things a little more susceptible to damage. 

One bit of good news is predicted rainfall tonight in Vermont is a little less than previous forecast. Still, it will be briefly heavy, with a chance of a rumble of thunder.  Expect a third of an inch to an inch of rain in most place in the Green Mountain State between now and midday Monday. 

As of this morning, there's still ice on some of the river.  We still might see some ice jams, which can cause some rapid local flooding.  I think the most likely river to see any ice jams is the Missisquoi.

Needless to say, a flood watch remains in effect for all of Vermont through Monday evening. 

It's actually going to stay on the warm side this coming week.  Not as warm as this weekend, but still balmy for March. It looks like we might get a little more rain, too.  However, by then, so much snow will have melted that I'm not too worried about renewed flooding.

By the way, the water level of Lake Champlain is starting to rise, and will continue to do so.  But the chances of ever reaching flood stage are iffy.  It depends on how much snow and rain falls the rest of this spring, and how intensely it falls.

Flood stage is 100 feet. As of yesterday, the lake level was at 95.44 feet, up about half a foot in the sag week. That pace of lake water rise will accelerate the next few days, but will stop short of flood stage.

Lake Champlain probably won't flood significant this year unless the rest of the spring is particularly rainy and snowy.  

Vermont Eclipse Forecast: High Clouds, But Still A Great Show

High, thin clouds are expected to appear in the skies over
much of Vermont by the time the eclipse arrives Monday,
but the clouds will be thin enough so that we
should still enjoy a great show. 

 We have another instance coming up in which Vermont is wonderful, but not perfect.

That would be the eclipse.   

Tomorrow is the big day, so the forecasts are almost locked in. There could still be some changes, but meteorologists seem fairly confident about what's going to happen Monday 

HIGH CLOUDS 

The way the forecast for Monday looks now, a bluebird clear blue morning will be invaded by high, thin clouds by the time the eclipse rolls around in the afternoon. 

The great news is this will be no means be a thick overcast.  To an extent, you'll be able to see through the clouds and take in a lot of what's going on.  We're still in for a great show. 

You'll most likely still see the moon takes bites out of the sun as if it's eating a vanilla wafer, then cover the sun entirely. (You will be watching all this with your special eclipse glasses on, of course). The changing, fading light as the eclipse draws close will still be stunning. 

Maybe the clouds will enhance the experience. It will be interesting to see how the thin clouds look during the eclipse and the moment just before and after. There might be some interesting colors or shadows or effects because of those clouds. 

The high clouds, of course are making things not perfect. Especially for photographers and people who want an unobstructed view of it all. The eclipse will result in fantastic photographs, of course. But a crystal clear sight is probably not in the cards, for those who wanted pristine shots of the edges of the sun peeking from behind the moon. 

The thinnest, most scattered clouds along the eclipse route in Vermont will be in the Northeast Kingdom. 

Two or three days ago, the high clouds were initially forecast to only make it as far east as around Buffalo, New York. But each computer model run had the band of high clouds moving faster. So now, unless the computer models reverse themselves, we'll see the cirrus clouds overhead in the Green Mountain State. 

This is so much better than climatology would have it, though. This is a terribly cloudy time of year in Vermont. It's usually stormy You might remember the news stories a few weeks ago saying we had an 80 percent chance of overcast during the eclipse. 

Notice how most of us didn't see the sun this past Wednesday through Saturday. This coming week, Wednesday through at least Saturday, also looks like it will be overcast and dismal. 

The clouds this time of year are often thick and low. Can you imagine how disappointing the eclipse would have been had it hit during the big snowstorm Thursday, or amid the damp overcast of Friday?

Fingers crossed that the high clouds won't thicken up, but it appears we might be beating the odds. Despite the thin clouds, Vermont is catching a big break, timed well for the eclipse.

Temperatures will be comfortable for viewers, too.  We'll get well into the 50s just prior to the eclipse, though temperatures of course will drop noticeably during the event as the sun disappears.

NO HIKING!

Although we'll have pretty good viewing weather for the eclipse, there are certain things that are a really, really bad idea during the eclipse.  

For instance, if you know anybody who thinks it would be fun to hike to a mountain summit to view the eclipse, strongly tell them to think again. You're not supposed to use hiking trails this time of year anyway because it's mud season and you'll damage the trails. 

Even though the weather forecast looks good, we'll also have the worst possible weather Monday to hit the hiking trails. We just had a lot of snow and it will be melting rapidly Monday. The cold, running water and deep mud on the trails will be awful. There will still be a ton of snow in the highest elevations. (There's still six or seven feet of it atop Mount Mansfield). 

There's tons of ice to slip and fall on, too.

If you get stuck in the mountains, cell service will be spotty at best if you need to call for help. Cell service will be especially strained due to the heavy use expected.

Rescue crews will be stretched thin, too. If you get into trouble up in the mountains, you might not get help until well into the night. By then, temperatures will be in the 20s up there.

BOATING A BAD IDEA

Although winds will be light and waves pretty minimal, it's still a bad idea to take a boat or kayak or anything like that out onto Lake Champlain or other bodies of water for the eclipse. Water temperatures are still in the 30s in most areas. If you fall in, you won't last long. 

If you want a lake in your eclipse view, pick a spot on the shore with a nice west and south facing view.  Burlington's Waterfront and St. Albans Bay Town Park are great spots for eclipse lake views, but expect crowds and traffic. Note there will be some street closures in Burlington and other communities. 

STICK TO THE PAVEMENT

With all the melting snow and thawing frost and heavy precipitation we had all winter, back roads and dirt roads will be an absolute mess. I know some of you might want a spectacular, rural view of the eclipse. Most dirt roads will be mud bogs, though. It'll be really easy to get stuck. And really hard to obtain help getting pulled out. Definitely best to stay on the paved roads. 

Don't believe the GPS in your car. It often lies and can send you to a remote dirt road, often not maintained well.  Thursday's snow has long since been removed from paved roads and they will all be in great shape Monday, aside from the occasional pot hole and frost heave.

PICK YOUR SPOT

You'll want to plan ahead for this one. 

Today might be a good day to scout out a place where you'd like to view the eclipse.  Maybe go out between 2 and 4 p.m. this afternoon to judge spots where the eclipse will look good to you.  Unobstructed west and south views are best. 

Remember, traffic will be thick Monday, so allow plenty of time to get to your viewing spot. It'll be a bummer to be stuck on the roads when the eclipse hits, so be where you want to be ahead of time. Make sure you have a tank full of gas. And snacks and beverages. You might be stuck in traffic after it all ends. 

DON'T SWEAT IT

This is a once in a lifetime opportunity, so stay positive. Don't road rage in the traffic. Don't elbow people away to get a view. Don't tromp across private property. There's plenty of public areas to watch the spectacle. Don't be a Karen. There will be no eclipse manager to entertain your bullcrap.

Just enjoy the experience and live in the moment during the eclipse. 

It will be quite a moment. 

Delightful, Tranquil Weather Continues Here In Vermont, No So Much Elsewhere

Unique photo of a hail storm aftermath in
Nebraska Saturday. In the foreground, little or
no hail fell, in the background,
you suddenly hit an area where a LOT of
hail fell. Photo via Twitter by 
@tractorjockey

 The weather here in Vermont is uneventful, but beautiful!  As mentioned yesterday, this will be a lovely week of spring weather in the Green Mountain State.

Since there's not much to talk about here, we'll look at some of the somewhat less happy moments going on in other parts of the nation. 

SEVERE WEATHER

We're into the month of May, so we're at the peak of severe weather season for the United States.

So of course, there's some to report. Luckily we're not having any kind of super outbreak of tornadoes, but there's plenty of rough moments to go around. There were 13 preliminary reports of tornadoes in the Midwest Saturday and five more on Sunday. 

The big story was big hail. Hail up to the size of baseballs pummeled some parts of Iowa, causing damage to siding, windows and cars. Video out of Grinnell, Iowa from Live Storms Media shows hail up to the size of baseballs driven by winds of up to 80 mph.  As you can imagine, the side of any house or building facing the direction of the incoming hail was trashed. 

Another video shows an Iowa rangeland fire apparently started by lightning under dramatic storm clouds. The video goes on to show firefighters responding to the scene, only to be pelted by large hail and intense winds.  A pretty wild video worth the watch! 

Although more severe weather is in the forecast this week in the middle of the nation, this still doesn't look like it will be an enormous outbreak, at least by historical standards. 

WESTERN FLOOD RISK

After an incredibly snowy winter in the high elevations of the West, there's still a lot of snow in them thar hills.  We have seen damage in Utah and California from snow melt floods already, and it will probably get worse. 

A couple of houses in Utah have already been swept away by a mudslide, and numerous buildings have been flooded. 

Little Bear Creek is already beginning to flood in Utah
because of snow melt. You can see a lot of snow still
left in the mountains in the background. 

Utah officials said they're only a third of the way through the spring thaw in the mountains, so there's a lot of water left to come down. 

Very warm temperatures are in the forecast for the western U.S., including the mountains of Utah and eastern California in the coming days. That will surely send lots of water downhill into populated valleys. 

In Morgan County, Utah, officials are basically guaranteeing a reservoir will overflow, causing a flood crisis in nearby communities. 

In California, Lake Tulare is back.  It used to be one of the largest freshwater lakes in the United States, but it was drained to make room for agriculture. 

Now, it has re-appeared because of all the rain and snow melt California has seen.  It has already submerged about 100 square miles of crop land. 

But the bulk of the snow is yet to melt from the mountains. This will create a crisis in the coming days and weeks as Lake Tulare butts up against levees, and potentially busts through them. 

This is a long term problem, too. Once the snow melt ends, it will take forever for Lake Tulare to drain again. The last time this, happened, in 1973, it was two years before the lake was gone and agriculture could resume. 

I guess this is a good reason not to drain lakes to build farms or anything else. 

In any event, you will be hearing a lot about flooding in the western U.S. in the coming days.

Satellite Photo Shows Vermont Snow Melt Progress

Visible satellite view of Vermont on Wednesday shows
many valley areas have lost their snow. Some interesting
areas in there, too. Click on the photo to make it 
bigger and easier to pick out details. 

 I came across an interesting visible satellite photo on the Burlington National Weather Service office web page yesterday, before the clouds rolled in. 

It gave a very clear view of how the snow has melted out of the Champlain Valley, and some of the lowlands in the Connecticut River Valley. 

The photo is in this post. Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to pick details out. 

One thing I noticed is the sharp line between no snow and snow in eastern Bennington, Rutland and Addison counties. 

The valley floors are virtually free of snow, but go up just a tiny bit in elevation along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, and you encounter solid snowpack. 

I noticed this as I drove through parts of Addison and Rutland counties on Sunday. Often during the spring thaw, the snow cover somewhat gradually goes from bare ground, to patchy to mostly snow to complete snow. On Sunday's trip,  I could see the abrupt change from no snow to complete snow cover,

This probably has a lot to do with the snowstorm on March 14-15. It was highly elevation dependent. The lowest elevations got modest amounts of snow, while elevations from about 900 feet and up got clobbered. That's probably part of what you see along those western slopes. 

If you also look closely, you can see the snow on the Taconic mountains in northwestern Bennington and western Rutland County. Again, you can discern the valleys. The little gap in the snow cover heading southeast to northwest in northern Bennington County and southwestern Rutland County is the Route 30 corridor in the Mettawee Valley.

By the way, that Mettawee Valley area of Route 30 is in my opinion the prettiest stretch of road in Vermont. Definitely worth a trip. 

Along another stretch of Route 30 in southeastern Vermont, you can see the snow free valley it travels heading northwest from Brattleboro, until the road encounters higher elevations and snow cover somewhere near Townshend or Jamaica. 

You can also see a gap in the snow cover in west-central Rutland County, with just a patch of snow to the north. That gap is the valley Route 4 takes toward Whitehall, New York. The small white patch to the north of Route 4 is Grandpa's Knob, and probably one or two higher peaks before the Taconics dwindle to nothing west of Brandon. 

A also think Grandpa's Knob is a wonderful name for a mountain. Or a senior citizen rock band. 

Looking much further north, if you squint your eyes,  you can sort of detect a narrow "crack" in the snow cover from far eastern Chittenden County through much of central Washington County. That's the Winooski River valley. The valley floor has little snow, but just slightly uphill from the river, you encounter a decent snow cover, 

Even further north, that patch of snow in central Franklin County just east of St. Albans is St. Albans Hill, just to the south of where I live.  My house is a third of the way up an adjacent, slightly smaller hill.  

I can attest that yesterday the bottom of the hill was snow free, my  yard still had patches of snow, and the top of the hill was almost totally snow covered. My hill is the tiny white dot north of the patch of white that is St. Albans Hill. 

You can also see that Lake Champlain is largely clear of ice, except the eastern part of the Lake from Malletts Bay in Colchester on up to St. Albans Bay.  The bays in the northern parts of the lake are usually the last to lose their ice in the spring. 

As we go through the next several weeks, on clear days, you'll see satellite images showing the snow cover retreating from both western and eastern Vermont, until only the summits of the Green Mountains. 

Vermont Weather Week Ahead: REALLY Toasty, Springlike

An early sign of spring we often see in February. The
sun, strengthening since December, helps collect
heat near darker objects, helping to melt snow near
deep green evergreens. Speaking of spring the 
weather this week in Vermont will be decidedly 
springlike. 

 We in Vermont have definitely settled back into our warm, snow drought winter, and that's going to continue this week for sure. 

As of Saturday, for instance, Burlington has received a grand total of 0.4 inches of snow so far this month. By now, we should have picked up 7.7 inches. 

Each of the past seven days in Burlington have gotten above freezing. Each day today through Friday will also get above freezing. That's an awfully long spell of thawing weather. 

Most low elevations in Vermont should lose virtually all of their snow cover this week. Mountains will take a hit, too. Not great for the ski areas, since we're into the Presidents Day holidays now. 

Let's break it down in the dailies:

Today: Nice!  Temperatures will get up well into the 30s, with a few low 40s. We won't see much wind, and there will be quite a bit of sun.  The sun angle is increasing from its December lows, so you're really starting to feel it when it shines now. 

Monday: Clouds increase as a weak disturbance zips in from southern Canada. It'll get up to near 40 degrees again in the valleys. By Monday night, light snow will break out, but it won't amount to much. Expect a dusting to an inch most places, especially north. It will be kind of a slushy dusting in warmer valleys. 

Tuesday: Snow showers diminish, and we get into the upper 30s again.

Wednesday: The real warm stuff begins to arrive. A warm front will send temperatures well into the 40s with increasing south winds. The warm front will kick off a few rain showers, but they'll just be scattered and light. Temperatures will stay well above freezing Wednesday night, too.

Thursday; The peak of the heat as a fairly strong storm goes by well to our west. Temperatures will get into near record territory - in the 50s. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few 60 degree readings pop up here and there. 

This storm could bring severe thunderstorms as far north as Ohio.  As the storm's cold front approaches us Thursday night, we'll see rain showers and continued very warm temperatures. Dew points could be in the low 50s, which is wildly high for this time of year. Such high dew points could support springlike rumbles of thunder in Vermont. We'll see. 

Friday: Could be warm, could be cold. It depends on the timing of the cold front. At this point, it looks like temperatures will start of warm, then crash.  We don't know the exact timing yet.  There could be a little snow as it gets colder, but again, it won't amount to much

Saturday: A chilly, windy day. At this point temperatures look like they'll stay in the 20s all day. But another warm up seems likely after that one cold Saturday. 

Warm Winter Benefit: So Far, Flooding Risk In Vermont Is Minimal

After weeks of cold weather, a rain storm and very warm
January thaw created ice jams that threw water and ice 
chunks across this road in Enosburg.  Because of the
warm winter we've had so far, similar scenes are 
very unlikely in the near future. 

Every other week in the winter and early spring, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington kindly gives us an update on how the late winter and spring flood risk is shaping up.

We got our first update last Thursday. If you hate damaging floods, and who doesn't, you're in luck, at least so far. The risk of winter and spring flooding at this point looks pretty low.  

A frequent flood risk in Vermont is ice jams on rivers that can form during thaws. The ice jams dam up the water behind it. If the jam is in the wrong place, a flood in a populated place could result. 

The wildest example is the 1992 ice jam flood in Montpelier which inundated the city's downtown.  

Sometimes, you can get ice jam floods in the middle of winter, courtesy of a January thaw. This was a big issue in January, 2018 after a frigid, often subzero period from mid-December, 2017 through the first week of January, 2018 froze Vermont river solid. And thick. 

Then, on January 12 of that year, temperatures rose to record setting levels near 60 degrees, with downpours. This broke up as snow melt and rain rushed into the rivers, and damaging ice jams result .  especially along parts of the Missisquoi and Lamoille rivers.

By contrast, so far this winter, it's been so warm there's basically no ice on Vermont rivers. No ice means no ice jams.  

There's still time for enough river ice to build up enough to create an eventual ice jam risk, but it will have to turn sharply colder.  So far, that kind of deep chill is not in the cards, at least for awhile.

Another big factor in late winter and spring flood risk is snow melt. Problem is, the snow has already melted in the weird late December and early January heat.  There's not much snow to dissolve if we see another big thaw.

Oh sure, we almost surely will receive more snow. Parts of Vermont received a little bit of it Friday and Saturday. But snowfall will need to be well above average for the next several weeks to get anywhere near normal amounts on the ground. 

At the time of their flood forecast last Thursday, the National Weather Service noted that Vermont rivers were running high due to recent rains, this doesn't mean a problem is developing. 

In fact, we're having some pretty dry weather until the end of the week. Rivers will recede.

Soil moisture and ground water is also wetter than normal. Lake Champlain is also a little higher than average for this time of year. 

But those are all artifacts of the late December and January thawing and rains.  For now, unless there is some big mega storm, we're safe from any real flooding for awhile. 

A lot can change between now and April, so it's always possible we could see some issues eventually. But for now, if you live in a flood prone area, you can relax. 

 

Strange Spring Day Unfolding In Vermont Today

Nasty Sunday morning in Vermont with gusty chilly
winds, cold rain and melting snow. Forecasts indicate
it will turn springlike, almost gorgeous this afternoon,
we'll see. Also a slight chance of an isolated, strong
thunderstorm late in the afternoon too! 

 The weather gods are throwing just about everything at us today, and you'll see the character of today's weather changing frequently, almost hour to hour.  

The common denominators by the time it all ends this evening is warmth, wind and just a slight chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm. I'd add there's a fairly high bust potential with the storm forecast.

We also have changes in the forecast for Monday, too, so let's get into it. 

The day started off raw, cloudy and gusty, typical gloomy March. A slug of rain was coming into Vermont from New York as of 8:30 a.m. It's warm enough so that none of this will freeze, which is nice. But it will be kind of a stormy morning with that rain around.

The Champlain Valley might be "shadowed" from the rain by the Adirondack Mountains, so some places there might not get much.  We'll see how that plays out. 

Unlike the impression I left yesterday, it looks like this batch of rain will move out pretty quickly and some sun will burst out at times this afternoon.  It will actually be spring like later today, believe it or not. 

Trends have gone a bit higher for temperatures with those partly sunny skies this afternoon.  Montpelier is now likely to break its record high of 55 degrees. Burlington's record high for today's date, 61 degrees, was set way, way back in 1894 and is easily among the oldest daily record highs on the books. That record could be challenged today 

But wait, there's more! 

I told you last night there was a low, but not zero chance of some unseasonable severe thunderstorms today.  That's still in play as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk zone for severe weather today. 

A cold front is coming in from the west. The scattered sunshine might help form some showers and thunderstorms along the front, which would move into Vermont late this afternoon.

Some of these storms could grab some high speed air from aloft and bring it down to the surface.  That would create isolated reports of wind damage.

The storms will be hit and miss and not everybody will see any showers this afternoon.  It'll be a broken line of showers and storms, so one town would get a brief one, while the next town over gets absolutely nothing at all.

It won't be like those snow squalls last Sunday, which were a solid line of storms that swept across the state. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington suggests that ice covered Lake Champlain might help stabilize the air, which would in turn suck some of the life out of the storms as they leave New York State

I'll also note there is a bust potential in this storm forecast.  It's possible the atmosphere won't get its act together at all, and perhaps no showers or storms will form, or very isolated, brief ones.  l . It's an iffy forecast, so we'll see.

This same storm caused a surprisingly nasty tornado outbreak in Iowa on Saturday.  I'll have more on that in a separate post later this morning. 

Once that front passes by late this afternoon and evening, we'll see some gusty west winds for a time, especially in New York State.  It might be a bit gusty in parts of the Champlain Valley and a few places on the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains as well.

MONDAY'S STORM 

That cold front coming through today is still expected to stall a little to our south, with a new storm riding northeastward along it. 

Forecasts for this not-so-strong storm have trended a little northward, so it looks like most of us will less snow and mostly a cold rain with it. It'll still end with a little snow Monday evening, but that won't amount to much.  Rainfall with this thing will be somewhere near or a little less than half an inch, but locally more than that in higher elevations. Nothing extreme. 

Between the very warm temperatures today which will cause fast thawing of the snow, the showers today and the rain with Monday's system, rivers will rise. Forecasters still don't expect much in the way of flooding, as there just won't be enough rain to make things overflow.

But there's still some ice and ice jams out there, so there's still a risk of some local problems with that between now and Monday night.