Flash Flood Risk Growing In Vermont, And Rest Of The Northeast

A strong thunderstorm seen here approaching St. Albans,.
Vermont from the southeast, instead of the west like
we'd usually see from storms. This storm was part of 
an opening salvo of storms that is bringing a 
flood threat to southern Vermont through tomorrow 

 I was afraid this would happen. 

The flash flood risk is growing notably in parts of Vermont, and a large chunk of the Northeast. 

A flood watch is now in effect for central and southern Vermont. The areas under the watch can expect one to three inches of rain through tomorrow evening. That doesn't sound so bad, until you consider there could well be some streaks of three to five inch amounts in that zone. 

The flood risk has already started.

If you're in the southern half of Vermont - especially if you're in or near the Green Mountains, prepare for local areas of flash flooding anytime between now and during the day tomorrow. 

This weather setup reminds me a little of the way things arranged themselves for the big July flood of 2023,  That said, I don't want to give you a flareup of PTSD.  This weather pattern IS NOT as intense or as capable of producing widespread like it did in July, 2023,  But I expect at least some pockets of flood damage in the Green Mountain State. 

THE UPDATE

All this is based on weather data that came in late this morning and early afternoon. That data doesn't exactly paint a pretty picture. Rainfall will be heavier in many areas than we thought early this morning. 

 Early this afternoon, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center extended a moderate risk of flash flooding between now and tomorrow morning through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and southwestern New England into far southern Vermont. 

A moderate risk, level three out of four, almost guarantees at least some flash flooding. A thick moisture feed combining with the instability brought on by a pesky upper level low over the Northeast could produce as much as five inches of rain within six hours in some local areas within the moderate risk area. 

The slight risk of flash flooding, level 2 out of 4 risk level, now extends north almost to Route 2. There's a good chance of some instance of local flooding in central Vermont between now and tomorrow night, especially along the east slopes of the Green Mountains. 

A marginal risk, one out of four covers far northern Vermont for the chance of very isolated flooding. 

Thunderstorms blossomed rapidly along the western slopes of the Green Mountains early this afternoon. The last one to develop seemed to come out of almost nowhere in Franklin County in the mid-afternoon and it was strong enough to carry a severe thunderstorm warning. It also came from an unusual direction - from the southeast rather than the west they way storms usually do.

That motion is a clue that we're getting a lot of moisture off the Atlantic Ocean for the atmosphere to play with. 

The storms were moving right along at a brisk pace, so any one storm wouldn't drop much rain in a particular place. The trouble will come if and where multiple stores move over the same place over and over again.

I have noticed that downpours in far southern Vermont have been looking pretty persistent this afternoon, but so far, as of 4 p.m., there were not flood alerts in effect. But this is the place to watch through this evening, as these storms will feature the heaviest rain of this whole three-day rainy event.  

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

The developing area of low pressure heading toward New York and southern New England will set up a sort of fire hose of moisture moving southeast to northwest from southern New England through southern Vermont, then weakening as it moves further north into upper Vermont and the Adirondack. 

This set up will really soak the summits and eastern slopes of the southern and maybe central Green Mountains, That will keep the flood risk going through most of tomorrow. The rain might not be as heavy as the locally torrential downpours today, but the rain could easily be strong enough to keep the flood risk going, 

The flood risk will diminish as you go north toward the Canadian border

For now, storm totals look like they'll run three to five inches in far southern Vermont, with local amounts as high as six or seven inches especially in the mountains. So you can see why this weather system is risky. 

The central Green Mountains look to have one to three inches, with perhaps locally higher amounts.  Northwest Vermont should get maybe three quarters on an inch, give or take, again with locally higher amounts. 

The Northeast Kingdom will largely miss out, as forecasts stand now. Some places up there might receive only a quarter inch of rain. 

Meanwhile, most of southern New England is under a flood alert through tomorrow, 

CAVEATS/WHAT TO DO

As always, things could change one way or another overnight. Heavy storms like this can shift the heaviest rain a few miles in unexpected directions, which could affect who gets the worst of flooding, if any. 

So, if you live in southern Vermont, be ready for at least some localized flash floods. Much of this could happen after dark, and it's hard to see washouts and flooding ahead when you're driving at night. 

If you live in a flood prone area, especially where water can rush off of steep slopes, have a to-go bag ready, just in case. You might have to leave at the drop of a hat.  

Again, not everyone in southern Vermont will have a flash flood. But it's a big enough threat to stay on your toes through tomorrow. 

We've already had a few instances of flash flooding this summer in Vermont. Looks like this will be another. In our climate changed world, this kind of thing has become more likely than it was a few decades ago

 

Ice Jams, Flood Risk, Record Heat, Freezing Rain, Rain, Snow, Wind, Storms. Vermont March Weather Rolls On

Another view of an ice jam backing up water along the 
Missisquoi River in Enosburg Tuesday. The ice
jam closed Boston Post Road near Route 105.
Vermont is still  under a flood watch through
tomorrow

Mark Twain once said, "In the spring, I have counted 136 different kinds of weather inside of 24  hours."

He was referring to New England when he said it. I'd guess he might have been in Vermont in March when he came up with that gem. 

A day after we had a hottest for so early in the season warm spell in the Green Mountain State. temperatures this morning were in the low to mid 30s. 

As forecast, there were a couple drops of freezing rain in extreme northwest Vermont.  We weren't expecting much and there was even less freezing rain than the trifle we thought we'd get.

Before we move on, we should gaze back at the record highs, and how we are re-writing weather records in the age of climate change. March records have really shifted. Before 1990, Burlington had never reached 70 degrees earlier in the season than March 20.

Now with yesterday's 73 degrees - the warmest for so early in the season - it's been in the 70s eight times on or before March 20 since 1990. Six of those occasions have been since 2012.  

This isn't just a Vermont thing. Hundreds of record highs were set over the past few days in the central and eastern U.S. New York City reached 80 degrees, the earliest on record it's been that warm there.

Another record heat wave is set to begin next week in the western U.S. 

The switch to hot weather out West means we in Vermont will probably not be seeing more record high temperatures for awhile. 

A southward dip in the jet stream over eastern North America will keep colder weather and storminess in our neck of the woods for next couple of weeks. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY

Eventually - later this morning or early this afternoon - the wind should swing back from a southerly direction, and that will pump temperatures back up in  to the 50s for most of us west of the Green Mountains. It'll probably stay in the mid and upper 40s east of the Greens. 

The good news is forecasters have cut back on the amount of rain we should expect between now and tomorrow morning. Don't celebrate too much, since we should still see enough rain, combined with snow melt and the last of the ice jams to keep us under a risk of flooding.  

The Otter Creek in Center Rutland is forecast to go into minor flood stage tomorrow. Other Vermont rivers are expected to get close to flood stage. And remember, these river level forecasts are iffy. Just a little extra rain, or a little extra snowmelt can make a big difference in how high the water gets.\

We should see some scattered showers, maybe even an isolated rumble of thunder here and there today. Much of the time should be dry, especially south and east. The rain should fill in to become more widespread later this afternoon and during the first half of tonight. 

THURSDAY

The sharp cold front will come in from the west mostly before dawn tomorrow, and that will send us back into winter. Temperatures will stay steady near the freezing point, or slowly fall during the day. Gusty winds will make it feel colder. At least the cold will shut off the snow melt and end the threat of flooding.

We could see some snow showers, but accumulations won't be anything to really worry about.

FRIDAY SATURDAY

A relatively small storm should come in from the west. We could get a couple inches of wet snow out of this later Friday into Saturday morning  By March, temperatures can be marginal between rain and snow. We'll want to take a closer look at this when we get closer. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

A larger storm is looming for the end of the weekend and start of next week.  This far ahead, it's hard to tell exactly what that means for us. For now, meteorologists are going with a period of snow and mixed precipitation Sunday, followed by a brief squirt of warm, windy, showery weather Monday, followed cold north winds and some snow Monday night and Tuesday. 

Since that storm is several days away, don't be surprised if the forecast for how it plays out changes big time. 

The cold wave next week looks pretty sharp and intense, even if it does't last all that long.  But we are possibly looking at a couple days with highs in the 20s and lows in the single numbers. Our false spring will definitely be over by then! 

After that cold wave, as usual, the weather forecast gets  really uncertain. But that's OK, we have more than enough on our plate for now. 

  

Tuesday Evening Vermont Weather Update: Shockingly Warm Today, Still Expected Yo-Yo Temperatures Now Through Thursday

Henry the Weather Dog on Tuesday got to do something
he hasn't really been able to do since October: Bask in the
warm sun. You can sort of see him smiling there
he was so happy 

The warmth in Vermont and surrounding areas really over-performed today, didn't it? 

It felt almost like summer. Henry the Weather Dog was able to bask in the warm sun for the first time since October. He was one happy camper!

I think some compressional warming ahead of the cold front that entered northern Vermont this afternoon helped boost the temperatures. The front, as it pushed southward, sort of squeezed the air, i.e. compressing it. When air compresses it tends to warm up. 

Whatever caused it, things were incredibly balmy.  Burlington reached 73 degrees, according to preliminary data. That  shatters the previous record high of 63 set in 2002. It's also the hottest temperature for so early in the season. Those "so early" or "so late" in the season record highs are especially hard to achieve. But Burlington managed it today. 

Other record highs include 63 degrees in Plattsburgh, NY; 71 degrees (wow!) in St. Johnsbury (old record was 64 in 2016);  and 67 in Montpelier, old record 60 in 2016). 

 Rutland and Springfield got up to at least 70 degrees, Bennington was at least 73 degrees. So much for my prediction this morning that there was just a chance a place or two in Vermont might reach 70.  Instead it was pretty widespread. 

The temperatures I listed are not final figures, so they might be updated later.  

COLDER AIR

I mentioned the cold front. Once it arrives it means business. Highgate was one of the first Vermont towns to see the cold front. They got up to 66 degrees at around 1:30 and were down to 51 buy 5 p.m. Burlington dropped ten degrees to 59 in the hour ending at 5 p.m. 

In most of central and northern Vermont, temperatures will bottom out in the 30s, and it'll get below freezing in some spots north of Route 2.  The northern Champlain Valley has the best shot at going below freezing. 

A winter weather advisory is still in effect for Grand Isle County late tonight and tomorrow morning for the risk of light freezing rain.  There could be some icy spots on the roads tomorrow morning there. And perhaps elsewhere in far northern Vermont. 

At least Vermont will miss out on the worst of this ice storm. Far northwest New York, southern Quebec from Ottawa to Montreal to Sherbrooke, northern and Central Maine and even northern Michigan. 

 WEDNESDAY

A large ice jam was still holding firm along the Missisquoi
River in Enosburg as of late this morning. 
Ice jams and regular flooding are a threat through
Thursday with more snow melt and expected rain. 

It does look like our storm will go by to our northwest, which means winds should shift to southerly during the day tomorrow. 

Highs should get into the 50s in western Vermont, maybe even low 60s southwest. The warmer air will have a bit of a harder time getting into eastern Vermont, but it will be above freezing. 

It probably won't rain much during the day except in the northwest. But today's warmth, lingering ice jams, snow melt and that rain will keep the risk of flooding going into Thursday. 

I noticed late this morning a large ice jam was holding pretty firm on the Missisquoi River in Enosburg , and it was causing minor flooding. 

Thursday will turn sharply colder and windy. And an active weather pattern will continue afterward. I'll have much more on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

 

Flood Watch, Ice, Rain And Temperature Gyrations Galore In Vermont

An ice jam seen here along the Great 
Chazy River in Moores, New York
badly damaging a campground
Vermont continues to be at risk
for ice jams and flooding, too.

It's going to be almost impossible to write this post without being confusing as temperatures and weather conditions are going to be all over the place over the next day or two. 

Almost literally wait a minute and it will change in some places.

The bottom line is there is a flood watch through Thursday afternoon. And our spring weather will fade over the next couple days amid rain, and even freezing rain. Then a little snow to top if off. Then more storms through next Monday. 

I told you it was complicated. 

YESTERDAY

Temperatures did over-perform somewhat Monday, just as I expected. Most forecasters predicted highs Monday to get up to around 60 degrees. Instead, most places got into the 60s. Rutland reached 68 degrees.

It was 65 degrees in Burlington, which made Monday the warmest day since October 20. Ice jams are still out there, the snow is still melting, so the flood watch continues today, tomorrow and into Thursday.   

TODAY

The warmth party will start to end north of Route 2 this afternoon. That weird cold front is north of Montreal and heading steadily south, driven by another frigid high pressure over northern Quebec. If you remember, we went through the same thing last week. 

This time, today's temperatures will zoom upward this morning, and then get cut off at the pass by the low level cold air coming south. It'll be most noticeable in the northern Champlain Valley and some areas near the Canadian border in the Northeast Kingdom. In those areas, temperatures will fall, especially in the mid to late afternoon and into tonight. 

A couple light showers might accompany the cold front in the north. 

In central and southern Vermont the cold front won't be noticeable until tonight, and not to the extent you'll see in the north. Highs will get well into the 60s today. A spot 70 degree reading is entirely out the question.

TONIGHT:

Here's where things get complicated. It looks like it will cool off enough in far northern Vermont where we will probably end up with some freezing rain, especially in the northern Champlain Valley. That's a real cold slap to end our beautiful "false spring"

So far, it doesn't look like much ice will accumulate. But it's tricky, because it's hard to tell how extensive and persistent this thin layer of cold air near the ground will be. That will determine how much ice there is. A winter weather advisory is up for Grand Isle County. That advisory goes from 11 p.m. tonight. It ends at 2 p.m. tomorrow, reflected the uncertainty with the temperatures and the ice. 

Some areas in far northern Vermont might have an icy drive to work tomorrow morning. Which would be a shock if you've been wandering around outdoors in shorts for the past couple of days. 

For now it's wait and see on the potential for ice elsewhere in the north. Stay tuned for updated forecasts later today. 

WEDNESDAY

Expected rainfall now through Thursday. Heaviest rain
is forces in New York. But in Vermont, rain combined
with snow melt will be enough to cause ice jams
and put some rivers into flood stage. 

The thinking for tomorrow is the storm will go by a little to our west, dragging that cold front back as a warm front.  If t
hat happens as forecasters think, then temperatures will rebound into the 50s for most of Vermont. 

This will keep the rain and snow melt going. So far, the flooding in Vermont has been mostly isolated near ice jams. The rain and continued snow melt would expand the flooding to rivers across the state. 

At this point, it doesn't look like a major flood. But as ice jams break up, there could be unpredictable, sudden changes in water levels.  The usual low lying roads will probably get submerged like they often do in the spring. 

Rainfall looks like it will total a half inch to an inch west of the Green Mountains, with the most north. Eastern Vermont should have about a third of an inch south to a half inch north. With the snow melt, that's more than enough to push at least some rivers over their banks.

I'll have more on how extensive the flooding might be in tomorrow morning's report. 

As you can imagine, the weird temperature forecast for the next 24 hours is tricky, so we'll probably see some forecast adjustments. For now this just gives you the best guess on how this will turn out.  Just basically be prepared for temperatures in the low 30s to mid 60s, especially north, now through tomorrow. 

Yes, I know that's not very helpful. But March is almost always a strange weather month.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

The forecast actually gets a little easier by the time we get to Thursday. The storm's final cold front will come through, dropping temperatures and ending the rain as a little snow in some areas. We won't see ,much accumulation 

Another, smaller storm looks likely later Friday and Friday night. That could drop a few inches of snow in some spots, especially the mountains. The snow might be mixed with rain for part of this storm in warmer valleys. 

Then, a larger storm is in the cards toward Sunday and Monday. This one looks like it will come with a fair amount of wind, and worse, changing precipitation types. 

Monday Evening Quick Vermont Update: Flood Watch Issued

Screen grab from a WPTZ report on the big ice
jam in Moretown, Vermont shows a vast jumble of
ice stuck in the river 

 The National Weather Service office in South Burlington decided to pull the trigger this afternoon and issue a flood watch.  

It's in effect for all but the southern two counties of Vermont, mostly because the Albany, New York National Weather Service office covers those areas. 

Northern New York is in the flood watch, too 

It's a long lasting weather alert, in effect now until during the day Thursday. 

For tonight through tomorrow, no rain is expected, but the warm weather will continue to take a toll on river ice. A cool night that got into the low 30s in a lot of places temporarily slowed the melt. Then it got into the 60s most places in Vermont this afternoon, and that's surely breaking up more ice that could lead to more jams.  

There's also plenty of snow left to melt in the mid and high elevations of Vermont 

An ice jam was still in place along the Mad River in Moretown at last report. I bet there's other trouble areas developing this evening after today's warmth. 

Tuesday's highs are tricky because it depends on when a cold front comes through in the north. Temperatures north Route 2 might end up falling through the 50s during the afternoon. Southern Vermont won't be affected by the cold front and might even be warmer than today.

So much cold air could drain into the valleys of northern Vermont, including the northern and possibly central Champlain Valley that there could be some freezing rain early Wednesday. I'll have  more details on this tomorrow, 

Enough rain might fall Wednesday to worsen the risk of flooding across Vermont. Another strong cold front should come through. That'll change the rain to snow before it ends. Also ending is our early hint of spring we're getting now.

Starting Thursday it's back to reality with temperatures staying near or below normal for quite awhile, with frequent chances of snow, maybe mixed with some rain. I'll have more in Tuesday morning's post.

 

Yep, It's Raining In Vermont/New England, A Lot More To Come

Springtime is beautiful even on rainy, gloomy 
mornings, as seen here in St. Albans, Vermont today. 

 I awoke to a chilly, foggy, drizzly dawn here in St. Albans, Vermont, the start of a what will likely be for some of us the largest rain storm of the year so far.  

Luckily, "largest" is relative, as we have not had many gullywashers yet this year.  Any flooding that results from the rain between now and Saturday evening should be minor. 

It's a chilly storm, because we're facing what is essentially a slow-moving nor'easter passing through New England.  A few of us won't even get out of the 40s for highs today. 

The rest of us will settle for low 50s, which is a good ten to 15 degrees chillier than average for this time of year.

Green Mountain summits will just barely be too warm for snow.

Had this storm happened earlier in the season, we'd be looking at a blockbuster snowstorm.  The path of this storm through central and eastern New England would have been perfect for a hellava dump of sow if this came through in March or even early April.

FLOOD WATCH

There is a flood watch for southern and parts of central Vermont with this rainfall. The watch is very roughly south of a line from below Middlebury to a little south of St. Johnsbury. 

This storm's heaviest rain is forecast for this area. Plus these southern areas had more rain than the north so far this month. 

That said, nobody is expecting anything remotely like the flood calamities we saw in the summers of 2023 and 2024.

First of all, we won't have sharp, torrential downpours. Instead, we'll just have more or less a soaking rain from this morning and continuing well into Saturday.  Sure, the rain might come down sort of heavily at times, but nothing scary. 

The slow, long pace of the rain will allow the water to soak into the ground a little bit, and not run off in great gushes down steep hillsides.

Instead, the steady flow of rain for two days will make rivers across Vermont rise.   In parts of southern and central Vermont, creeks and rivers and streams could get close to or a little bit above bank full.

For instance, the Otter Creek in Center Rutland, Vermont is expected to peak at just a tiny bit under minor flood stage. 

People in southern Vermont who experience big puddles in their yard or water in their basements during heavy rain will probably have to deal with that again, too. 

And yes, we're going to have another rainy Saturday, but the showers should be getting lighter and more scattered as the afternoon and evening wear on. Especially in western Vermont. 

Northern Vermont will end up pretty sodden, too, but the rain won't be quite as heavy up there. We figure in general we'l1 see 1.5 to 3 inches of rain south, and 0.75 to 1.5 inches north.  

LOOKING AHEAD

Overall, this drenching rain might be good in the long run.  It'll soak the ground and help us get through any long dry spells that might develop later this month. 

Though I can't promise any long dry spells. However, we're still looking at a big change in the weather pattern that will actually bring us a few rainless days starting Sunday. 

Sunday looks very sunny, and on the cool, refreshing side. Highs will only be in the 55 to 62 degree range. But the sunshine on the new leaves and flowers on Mother's Day will be spectacular to behold after this gloomy stretch. 

It's also still looking warm and summery and even a tad muggy as we head further into next week. From midweek on, there might even be a few scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to give us that summer feel. 

 

Sunday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Winds Cause Issues Before Rains

Gusty winds, very warm temperatures and chaotic cloudy
skies this afternoon over St. Albans, Vermont preceded
some rain that will enhance the flood risk overnight.
Most of the flooding will from rapidly melting snow.

 Some strong, gusty winds have been able to develop especially in western Vermont this afternoon, hinting at just how dynamic the storm that afflicted much of the United States has been. 

I'd estimate peak gusts at my St. Albans hillside house at between 50 and 55 mph. I heard some large branches breaking in the woods up behind the house.  Gusts have reached at least 48 mph in Burlington. 

Vermont Outages reported nearly 2,000 homes and businesses without power late this afternoon, mostly i northwest Vermont, where the winds have been strongest.

A wind advisory is in effect until 10 p.m. tonight for Vermont along and west of the Green Mountains. 

It was super warm today, as you might have noticed. It reached at least 70 degrees in Burlington, tying the mark for the fourth earliest 70 on record. 

Until 1990, the earliest 70 in Burlington was March 23, 1938. The earliest 70 on record is now on February 25, 2017. That's one example of how climate change has really altered the weather record books 

The dew point, a measure of humid it is out there, has gotten into the low 50s in some spots. That's extremely humid for March (but not for August, BTW).  Humid, windy air melts snow faster, so it's probably really disappearing fast from those areas that still have snow.    

As far as flooding goes, the forecast hasn't changed. Mostly minor flooding as expected as the snow melt rushes down from the hills and mountains.  River levels continue to run a little higher than forecast late this afternoon. Probably because more snow has melted than originally thought. 

However, slightly less rain tonight than earlier predictions might offset that. It should only rain hard for two or three hours later this evening until around midnight or a little after. There might even be a rumble of thunder or two with this.  Light rain will follow into Monday morning. with several additional hours of light rain. 

Still, the amount of snow melt can be unpredictable, so there could be some surprises in flood plains here and there early Monday. 

Needless to say, Vermont is still under a flood watch now through most of Monday. 

I noticed some weird little blips and quick rises and falls of water levels along the Mississquoi River. That indicates ice is still moving on the river and there could be some ice jams. 

I'd pay attention to road conditions early Monday. We're certainly not going to have snow or ice to worry about. But some low-lying roads might be flooded.

Also, with this prolonged, intense thaw, mud season has gotten off to a miserable start. I'd image some dirt roads are virtually impassable. 

Wednesday Evening Vermont Storm/Flood Update: The Worst Starts Now, But Some Good News

Rising waters along a creek in Fairfax, Vermont amid
drenching rains this afternoon. Flooding is still
likely overnight in Vermont, but it shouldn't be
nearly as bad as the one we had last December. 

 A soaking rain has drenched Vermont and much of the rest of New England pretty much all day, as expected. 

As of 5 p.m., that wasn't enough to touch off any flooding around here. At least not yet. 

But the flood threat has always been between early this evening and tomorrow morning. That's still the case. 

The good news is that although flooding looks inevitable to me, it won't be as bad as last December. 

The expected total amount of rainfall from this storm, between what has already fallen and what will come this evening, is a little bit less than the predictions we saw a couple days ago. Which of course is great news. 

Temperatures in northern Vermont have been cooler than forecast, which has slowed the snow melt. They'll briefly bump up this evening well into the 40s before crashing downward later on. 

The dry ground from an autumn of drought has been able to absorb a lot of today's rain. Now things are finally saturated, and small streams and creeks are rising. 

But with stream flows low to start, it'll take quite a bit to get things flooding. They will flood, but unless a big surprise hits with the rain tonight, this shouldn't be anything cataclysmic. This time, anyway.

Since about 99.999999 percent of all Vermonters have at least a hint of PTSD from the frequent big floods we've had over the past couple of years, I know a flood watch gets the heart racing. And not in a good way. 

So people have been nervous about this storm. As always with this kind of thing, channel that nervousness into deep breaths and common sense. Especially since we'll need to be careful with tonight's flood threat, even though we know this probably won't turn out to be a catastrophe. 

You know the drill. Don't drive through flood water. If the road is closed, turn around and find another way to get where you're going. That kind of thing.

THIS EVENING

I supposed there was sort of a lull in the rainfall late this afternoon, but it wasn't much of one, certainly less of a quiet period than expected.  Most of us have had somewhere close to an inch of rain through 5 p.m., give or take. 

A new round of heavier rain was moving into Vermont from the southwest as of 5 p.m. and that will be our big drencher this evening.  We're probably in for another 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, plus the snow melt. Which is why the flood watch is still up. 

Most rivers, if they flood, will reach minor flood stage, which is why we don't expect big time destruction once again in those towns and cities in the flood plains. The Otter Creek in Rutland County still looks like it might be the most troublesome one of the bunch. It might get pretty close to homes in Rutland and Center Rutland as it reaches moderate flood stage. 

I do anticipate some trouble with local washouts on back roads and maybe sone culvert trouble here and there. We still expect some road closures tomorrow morning on low lying roads.

Especially once we get past midnight, temperatures are still expected to crash, as we've said in previous forecasts.  We won't get much snow out of it, maybe one to as much as three inches in the mountains 

Areas near Lake Ontario and the western Adirondacks are in for another big lake affect snowstorm tomorrow, but those will diminish to light snow showers and flurries by the time they reach Vermont. It might be good for another inch or two of semi-replacement snow up in the ski areas. 

Thursday will also be blustery and chilly with winds gusting as high as 40 mph. 

But after this oddly wet storm, we'll be back to business as usual for December. A couple of weak systems will spread a little light snow, rain or schmutz across Vermont early next week. After a chilly Friday and Saturday, we'll become a little on the warm side for December once again. 

 

After Icy Start Today, Vermont/New England Braces For Floods

Winooski River floodwaters race past buildings in
Winooski, Vermont during serious flooding in
December, 2023.  Fingers crossed that the 
anticipated flooding Wednesday and Thursday
in Vermont won't be as bad as last year's event. 

 With that drought in place and forecasts issued in late November calling for a cold, dry December, flooding was not on my New England holiday season bingo card. 

But here we are. 

Flood watches have been posted for all of Vermont except Grand Isle County from tomorrow afternoon into Thursday morning. The watches extend down into western Massachusetts, and I'm sure they will be expanded into New Hampshire and Maine. 

Details below. 

TODAY

Before we get there, we still have a little ice to deal with. There's still a little snow on some roads from last nights burst. Most places got one to three inches, as expected, though I did see a report of 5.5 inches out of Mount Holly. 

Patches of freezing drizzle lingered overnight as well. In the Champlain Valley, it had gotten above 32 degrees by early this morning, so it's mostly good there, except maybe on back roads. But it was still at or below that critical level along and east of the Green Mountains, so you'll want to watch yourself driving to work this morning. Take it easy, take it slow, you know the drill.

In most places, the ice will be mostly gone by the time you read this. But colder hollows and untreated back roads, driveways and sidewalks could hold onto the ice most of the day

Otherwise, today is the calm before the storm, with clouds and warming temperatures. The show begins tonight and intensifies Wednesday. 

WEDNESDAY

It'll rain all day, with the rainfall rate getting heavier as the day wears on. 

It might be cold enough very early in the morning for a little freezing rain here and there in eastern Vermont. But it's also going to get quite warm in the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 40s in the northwest corner of Vermont to the low and mid 50s elsewhere.  

That will get the snow melting rapidly along with the rain, setting the stage for that flooding. It'll take probably until late afternoon at least before it starts causing real problems, but Wednesday night and early Thursday rather rough at least in a few spots. 

Total rainfall in Vermont should be between 1.5 and 2.5 inches, with locally higher amounts. This is addition to the snowmelt will surely cause at least some localized flash flooding which could damage culverts, back roads, etc.  

Forecast rainfall amounts are still running very high for
this time of year, with many places in and near
Vermont expected more than two inches of rain. 

Flooding is possible anywhere in Vermont, and all of New England, for that matter. In Vermont, it seems the heaviest rain and relatively greatest risk of flooding would be east of a line from roughly Fair Haven to Jay Peak.  

Most rivers in Vermont will go into flood stage Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Fingers crossed most of the flooding will be minor, but we'll keep an eye on it. 

So far, it still looks like Otter Creek in Center Rutland might be the worst, flirting with major flood status that could potential at least flood basements and streets in and around Rutland.

This is a dynamic storm, so we see other hazards cropping up around New England. Strong, damaging winds could hit parts of Maine with this. There's even a risk of severe thunderstorms across southern New England. 

I'm most worried about folks in parts of New Hampshire. More than four inches of rain could potentially pour down on the southern and eastern slopes of the White Mountains. Combined with snow melt, the flooding could really get scary over there. 

That region got hit even worse than Vermont with last December's flooding. Luckily, water levels are low in New Hampshire, so it very likely won't be as bad as last year. 

Fingers crossed, I think I can say the same for Vermont, but there's no guarantees. True, the ground is much drier than it was at this time last year, and river levels are starting at pretty low levels. That will give us some wiggle room with the runoff. 

Still, since most of the flooding will hit when it's dark, that makes it pretty dangerous. You don't see flooded roads easily when you're out driving until it's too late.  You could get stuck in the water in an instant.  Also, people who do get stuck in water are in even greater peril than they would be had they gotten caught in the flooding last July. 

It's much colder now, so hyperthermia would set in much more quickly. 

As floodwaters continue very early Thursday, the anticipated changeover to snow is looking pretty unimpressive for most of us. But the snow and falling temperatures, combined with expected flood-related road closures Thursday morning, will make things tricky for commuters once again.

No rest for the weary.

That said, after this storm gets out of our hair, I don't see an immediate threat for any further big storms for at least a few days after this one. 

 

Early Afternoon Vermont Flood Update: Western Vermont/NY Getting Most Of It for Now

Weather radar was really lit up, especially in New York and
northwestern Vermont as of 1 p.m. or so. Expect the heavy 
rain to continue focusing on New York, but some of it
will spread further in Vermont, raising flash flood
threats in the Green Mountain State as well. 

UPDATE: 2 PM

Tornado watch just issued for Vermont from Addison and Windsor counties south until 10 p.m. tonight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

So far today, rainfall continued to exceed expectations a little bit, so wary meteorological eyes continue to watch what happens with the remnants of Tropical Storm Debby in Vermont through this evening. 

The good news is there's been a relative lull in rainfall in the eastern half of Vermont, which means rivers that were starting to rise sharply have stabilized. A flood warning that was in effect for the area around St. Johnsbury, Lyndonville and Barton has expired. They're not entirely out of the woods, as more heavy rain is due there later, but at least there's a break.

Western Vermont, especially the immediate Champlain Valley and in through most of Franklin County in the northwest, along with New York State, has been and is seeing the bulk of the rain as of 1 p.m.

A flood warning went up around Essex, New York and on across the lake around Vergennes, Ferrisburgh and Charlotte as a particularly intense blast of rain went through that neck of the woods at mid-morning. 

Another, more serious looking flood warning just went up after 12 noon for a region on either side of the northern portion of Lake Champlain. In Vermont, this is in northwest Chittenden County, Franklin and Grand Isle counties. Basically from Colchester north. Up to 2.5 inches of rain has already fallen there. Up to another 2.5 inches of rain could fall, so that could be really serious.

I see that Plattsburgh, New York had already gotten a storm total of two inches of rain as of 1 p.m, and it was still raining pretty hard there. 

So far the only report of trouble with this is about three or four inches of water on Interstate 89, a little north of Exit 16 in Colchester 

 Northern New York got no real break from the heavy rain, so that's where the most serious concern for flooding is right now. There's already a huge area of flash flood warnings in southwestern New York centered around Binghamton. That torrential rain seems destined to head toward the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley later today.

Rainfall rates this afternoon over in New York could be one to two inches per hour. Some places in the Adirondacks could get five inches of rain. With the steep terrain over there, flash flooding could get pretty scary.

We'll also have to watch and see whether that concentrated area of rain clips far northwestern Vermont later, because of all the rain that's fallen there. For the rest of Vermont, we still have to worry some about flash floods, especially when the heaviest rain gets here in the late afternoon and early evening. 

As the center of former Tropical Storm Debby draws nearer this afternoon, we'll have to be on the look out for embedded thunderstorms, a few of which might contain damaging winds. 

The thunderstorm risk for western Vermont from Burlington south has been upgraded from level 1 marginal risk  to level 2 slight risk, which suggests there could be more than just isolated trouble with today's storms. 

In this western Vermont slight risk, there's a 5 percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point. Yeah, that's low odds to be sure, but more than we usually see in Vermont. There's a decent chance of a quick spinup, but of course that's far from guaranteed. If a spinup happens, it could come at dusk or after dark, making such an event that bit more dangerous. 

That said, rainfall patterns have been transitioning from a steady if sometimes heavy rain to more cellular type things. That means heavy showers and thunderstorms. With this new regime this afternoon and evening, the rainfall might be less constant and include some breaks, but when the rain does come, it will often be ferocious. 

Winds should really pick up in western Vermont especially today as the circulation of former Debby comes closer. We still expect winds to gust to 50 mph in a few spots. This is just regular winds, outside any severe thunderstorms. So power outages are a decent bet here and there. 

Since we're not entering the heart of the storm danger period - lasting from now into the evening - stay weather aware and pay attention for  any flood or severe storm warnings that might be issued over then next several hours. 

 

Thursday Evening Update: Flood Risk Continues In Vermont/New York With Debby; Rather Weird Weather, Too

Expected rainfall amounts through Saturday with
the remnants of Debby. Less rain is expected in
Vermont than earlier forecasts, which will help prevent
another big flood disaster. But local flash loods
are still a real risk. 

As advertised, clouds increased this afternoon across Vermont and surrounding areas as now ex- Tropical Storm Debby makes its way towards us.  If it isn't raining where you are when you read this, it will soon.  

THE BIG PICTURE

Already, as of 5 p.m. rain had moved into far southern Vermont and in northwestern New York. There were a few heavy downpours embedded with that rain. A sign of things to come. 

The overall forecast for its track, timing and duration hasn't changed much since this morning. The 5 p.m update from the National Hurricane Center actually has it moving a little faster than they predicted this morning. 

This morning, the projection was former Debby would be over northern Vermont as of 2 a.m. Saturday. Now, it's expected to be just north of the northern tip of New Hampshire at that hour.

The faster former Debby moves the better, as it would have less time to dump a bunch of rain on us. 

Heaviest rain is still expected to be across northern New York with this thing with somewhat lighter totals in Vermont. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has updated its flood watches, expanding the watch across all of the northern half of Vermont except the Champlain Valley. 

Although trends have continued to minimize the threat of another mega-flood disaster in the Green Mountain State, instances of flooding, washouts, that kind of thing are still definitely in play. 

That northern Vermont flood watch was put in place largely because areas hard hit by the two other big floods this summer are especially vulnerable to heavy rain. 

The State of Vermont, and towns affected by that flooding hurriedly patched up washed out roads and culverts just to get the roads open. More permanent repairs come later. 

Since a lot of those quick repairs are ad hoc, they're not particularly  resilient against heavy rains. So downpours associated with ex-Debby that in normal times wouldn't be that big a deal are. Ex-Debby might undo a lot of the work that's been done in the past month. 

STEP BY STEP OUTLOOK

Tonight

Overnight, chances are you'll hear the occasional roar of quick downpours on your roof, interspersed with periods of lighter rain or no rain. Overall, radar has rain coming in quicker than I thought, so you might see a shower even before sunset. 

Overnight, rainfall will only amount to maybe a quarter of an inch in southern Vermont, with locally higher amounts. Northern Vermont can expect maybe a half inch to an inch. 

This won't be enough to trigger flooding but will prime the pump for possible flooding later, as I noted this morning. 

Friday/Friday Evening

A weird, tropical day. There might be a lull in the rainfall early in the morning, but it should pick up in the form of numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.  The day will feel incredibly humid and south winds could get a little gusty with this, too.

 Former Debby is still expected to cross over northwestern Vermont. With tropical storms and former tropical storms thunderstorms tend to develop along and east of the path, with a steady, heavy rain west.

So the steady, heavy rain will mostly stick to New York. 

The more sporadic nature of the numerous showers and storms will make things a bit challenging for forecasters. Areas of flash flooding - and flash flood warnings - won't become apparent until the actual flood is underway, or the flooding is just minutes away.

Though we know that most of us will receive one to two inches of rain, there could be much higher totals in a couple spots if storms hit the same spot over and again.

If we do see any flash flooding with this, the best chance of it hitting are between early afternoon and midnight Friday.

Definitely be ready to hear any flash flood or severe thunderstorm warnings that might be issued tomorrow. It will be an active day and evening .

Some of the storms could end up being severe, with a few reports of damaging gusts definitely possible.  Vermont is now in a marginal risk for severe storms Friday and Friday evening, meaning there could be isolated instances of damage. I do wonder whether that risk level will be upgraded to slight tomorrow, which is a slightly higher risk of severe weather. 

Tropical systems can be prolific tornado producers. There have already been several in the Southeast. There is a low, but not zero chance of a brief spinup with former Debby in Vermont tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Could happen anywhere in the state. If it does happen, the best chance is in southwestern Vermont. 

Outside of those severe storms, winds could gust to 40 mph in spots Friday afternoon and evening. That could be enough to push over a few trees. Remember, wind can uproot trees more easily if the soil is wet and soggy. So expect a few widely scattered power outages, even if no severe thunderstorms develop.

Saturday

Since this ex-Debby thingy will be rocketing by so fast, it now looks like Saturday will be a nice day. Although the chances of serious river flooding in Vermont appears low, we'll have to watch those water levels, especially Saturday morning if the rain we get Friday and Friday evening turns out to be heavier than expected. 

Early Afternoon Update: Vermont Storm Worsens, Shifts North; Tornado Watch Added To Flood Watch

Weather radar was already really busy across
central and northern Vermont and NY with heavy rain and
thunderstorms which couple easily turn severe.
A flood watch and tornado watch are in effect.
Keep a wary eye out this afternoon, folks~ 

Can things get worse?

Apparently, they can.  

A tornado watch has been added to Vermont's existing flood watch as our storm really winds up. 

Things were just getting exciting - in a bad way - as I write this at just after 12:30 p.m. Heavy rain is developing in many spots. 

FLOODING

As our expected flooding and storms loomed late this morning, I was struck by how dark it had gotten here in St. Albans late this morning. 

Through noon, we'd only gotten a little rain - less than a tenth of an inch. But boy, did it seem ominous out there. By 12:20 p.m. rain rates increased as thunder began booming. It has begun.

Judging from latest forecasts and radar returns, it looks like the whole mess of a storm is going to place itself a bit north of earlier forecasts.

The warm front that is helping cause this appears as if it wants to shift well into northern Vermont. That might focus the heaviest rains a bit north, too. 

 NOAA's Weather Prediction Center slightly shifted their moderate risk zone - the areas most likely to see flash flooding today and tonight just a bit. Now, areas right along the  Canadian border, and presumably just on the other side of the border in Quebec, stand the best chances of seeing some potentially seriously flooding. 

Widespread two to four inch rain totals are now expected pretty much from Route 4 northward, with some spots seeing six inches or even more. The flood watch went into effect at 11 a.m., so starting now, any torrential storm can produce flooding.

The flash flood risk will steadily rise as we go through the day. 

So it's not a good situation at all.  I'm confident we'll get plenty of reports of road washouts and quite possibly some real property damage this afternoon and evening. 

TORNADOES/SEVERE STORMS

With the warm front apparently further north, that places most of Vermont in a more favorable zone for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. When  you have the remnants of a tropical system, with a warm front involved, you can easily get this type of trouble. 

The old Hurricane Beryl remnants create shifting winds in the atmosphere. The warm front helps by bending south or southwest winds toward the southeast and east across areas near that front. That also helps encourage spinning thunderstorms and possible tornadoes. 

Which is why a tornado watch is in effect until 9 p.m. this evening. 

The chances of a tornado in Vermont aren't zero but they are low compared to the much bigger threat of flooding. 

It appears an initial wave of heavy rain and thunderstorms was moving quickly north and northeast across the northern half of Vermont as of 12:30 p.m. Some of the thunderstorms in central Vermont and northern New York could get near severe levels before they head into Quebec.

It's possible there might be a lull after this initial band. (Not guaranteed, but it seems to me like it's headed that way). But more storms will quickly develop in the very wet and very unstable air to the south. 

Also, this initial band could stall out north of Route 2 soon and start dumping heavy rains this afternoon. We'll need to watch the progress of where this first wave of downpours ends up. 

I noticed a lot of new storms were already developing south of Syracuse, New York. Those storms will only become more numerous as the day wears on. There was already a tornado warning with one of these storms just southwest of Utica, New York as of 12:45 p.m. 

Those storms are heading in Vermont's general direction. Note that most rotating storms do not produce a tornado. But they usually do create damaging straight line winds. Take all severe thunderstorm warnings seriously.

WHAT'S GOING ON

We'll all have to stay on our toes this afternoon and evening. Local flash flood warnings, severe thunderstorm warnings and possible tornado warnings will all be buzzing out of National Weather Service offices in South Burlington and areas near Vermont. Probably in quick succession at times.

I'm sure local television stations will keep cutting into regular broadcasts to spread the word about specific flood and storm threats as they develop today and tonight. 

No matter where you are in Vermont, be prepared for really fast changing conditions. 

This sounds basic, but know where you live on a map. Know which county you live in, and the names of the towns surrounding you. That will give you a better sense of whether you need to take action if any kind of warning is issued. 

Vermont Emergency Management says it is opening its Emergency Operations Center this afternoon, which supports and coordinates efforts during severe floods and storms. 

Also, Vermont's urban search and rescue teams are staging in areas most likely to see the worst of it today and tonight. The Vermont National Guard is assisting with this. 

That there's this much prep work going on is yet another suggestion this storm is really one to take seriously. 

I'm not sure I'll be able to post an update this evening or not, stay tuned. Keep an eye to the skies and an ear to a weather radio and other reliable sources of weather information. 

You're going to need it. 

 

Tuesday Evening Vermont Forecast Update : News Is Bad, Flood Prospects Worsen, Unfortunately

Flash flood risk has been upgraded to "moderate" in
much of Vermont and surrounding areas, which
makes at least some flash flooding pretty 
much guaranteed, with possible serious damage.

 The forecasts for tomorrow and tomorrow night's flood risk have gotten noticeably worse over the course of today. 

The relative certainty of the event has increased. So has the expected rainfall amounts. Which means the flash flooding could end up being quite extensive here in the Green Mountain State.

This still won't be as bad or as long lasting as the cataclysmic flooding we saw exactly a year ago. But it will still be dangerous, damaging, even life-threatening in some areas.

Take this one seriously.

To nobody's surprise, the National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for all of Vermont except for our two southernmost counties, where rainfall should be lighter. The flood watch is in effect from 11 a.m. tomorrow through 11 a.m. Thursday. 

Flood watches are also up for northeastern New York, most of New Hampshire and western Maine.  

Let's break it all down:

TODAY/THIS EVENING

As expected, scattered thunderstorms erupted this afternoon around Vermont, and will continue into the evening before sputtering out. 

Some of the most torrential thunderstorms hit central Vermont, along roughly a line from north of Middlebury, to near Montpelier and on toward St. Johnsbury. Some of these dumped a good inch of rain. 

That's precisely the area that saw the heaviest downpours in last Saturday's round of thunderstorms.  And it's the band across Vermont that could well see the heaviest rain from this upcoming flash flood episode. 

So this piece is really bad. 

WEDNESDAY

When you get up tomorrow morning, it won't seem so ominous. Sure, it will be incredibly humid. But there won't be much rain around. 

That will change during the afternoon. As meteorologist Tyler Jankowski of WPTZ explained, a warm front associated with the remnants of Hurricane and Beryl will be trying to ever so slowly lift northward toward central Vermont.

At the same time, a weak cold front will try to move due south in Quebec. That puts central and northern Vermont between the two fronts.  Between those two fronts, Beryl, with an assist from the Atlantic  Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, will provide  the necessary water for torrential downpours. 

The two fronts will conspire to make the air rise, so the downpours will break out, and pretty much keep running west to east between those two fronts. 

As of this evening, the forecast for the heaviest rain runs from that Middlebury/Montpelier/St Johnsbury line. Which of course is the exact worst place it could be. We're talking three to six inches of rain in less than 15 hours. 

That's enough to trigger some pretty damaging and dangerous flash flooding. 

It's still quite possible the heaviest west to east band of flooding rains could set up a little north or a little south of the area I outlined. If that happens the flash flooding will be pretty much as bad as what I outlined, but it would of course be far northern Vermont or south central Vermont. 

We'll see updates and adjustments tomorrow morning, I'm sure. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has upgraded its flash flood risk from slight to moderate across tomorrow for northeastern New York, the northern two-thirds of Vermont and northern New Hampshire. 

That risk level almost guarantees there will be some reports of fairly substantial flash flooding. Again, not as bad as July 10, 2023, but bad enough. 

The timing of this worries me, too. Flash flooding would probably start in earnest by late afternoon or evening. But it will likely peak after dark.   

As if we don't have enough to worry about with
flooding Wednesday, there's a low but 
definitely not zero chance of a tornado or two
across New York and southern and central Vermont.

Flash flooding and severe storms are more dangerous at night. If you're driving at night,  you might not see the road under water or washed completely away until you hit it. 

People in homes might not have a good read on how the water is behaving at night. And a hasty evacuation is dangerous in the dark. 

Oh, and we have yet another potentially dangerous problem to deal with tomorrow. Former tropical storms are famous for spinning off tornadoes. Beryl created a couple dozen tornadoes in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas yesterday.

Along and south of that warm front I mentioned, winds will change directions with height. So southern and possibly central Vermont is at risk for a few rotating thunderstorms. The biggest risk from these is damaging straight line winds. But we might also see a brief tornado tomorrow, especially from about Route 4 south. 

Also, although far southern Vermont is outside the greatest flood risk area, thunderstorms could become intense enough to produce some instances of local flash floods. 

THURSDAY

The heavy downpours will have departed by the time dawn breaks Thursday. Then we'll have to shift attention to the main stem rivers. 

Some of them will go into flood stage, but it continues to look like rivers like the Winooski and Lamoille won't get nearly as high as they did in last year's epic disaster.  Tuesday evening forecasts call for both rivers to stay below flood stage. I think future forecasts will increase the flood risk along those two rivers, but we should still fall far short of the horrors we saw in the Winooski and Lamoille valleys last July. 

I think downtown Montpelier is safe, unless the forecast turns much, much worse. I think downtown Johnson should mostly escape trouble, again, fingers crossed. 

WHAT TO DO

If you live in an area prone to flash floods that could force you to evacuate, put together a to-go bag tonight or early tomorrow. Include important documents, medications and other necessities. Think about what hoops you'd have to jump through to get your pets or elderly relatives out of harm's way. 

Flash floods happen, well, in a flash, so you need to be nimble. Have ways to get weather warnings and advisories. 

If you're told to evacuate by emergency officials, do it. And quickly. If they close a road, don't go around the barriers. If you can help it, don't wade into floodwaters. It's probably polluted and could get you sick. 

If your basement is filling up with water, don't go down there. Basement walls and foundations are famous for collapsing in flash floods. That can trap you under water under debris if you're down there.  

Charge your devices tomorrow morning. We could have power outages. Remember, there could be damaging thunderstorm winds in central and southern Vermont, or even a brief twister. Make sure you're ready to take shelter in a sturdy building if the National Weather Service issues a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning. 

You want to be wicked careful driving. Please do NOT drive through flooded roads. You could stall or get swept away in just several inches of water. Also, the road might no longer be there under the water. It might have washed away. 

BOTTOM LINE

This is yet another depressing "here we go again" moment. We have to face the reality that climate change has made weather extremes more likely. 

I guess we've already had a lot of practice with this sort of thing. The main goal here is to prevent loss of life.

We are a bit at the mercy of this thing, although Vermont has taken steps to become more flood and disaster resistant. 

Don't panic, but be sober.  This too shall pass, and we'll have a breather again soon enough. 

Sunday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Rainfall Totals Tick Up A Bit, Wind Threat (Maybe) Down A Little

Late afternoon Sunday updates from the National Weather
Service office in South Burlington, Vermont has slightly'
increased rain totals from tonight and Monday's storm.
A large portion of the state can expect at least two
inches of rain. Click on the map to make it 
bigger and easier to see.

 As I start to write this at 5:15 p.m. Sunday, the rain from the long awaited storm is just moving into Vermont in earnest. 

It will be a very wet night. That will continue on Monday. The flood watch for the entire state is very much still in effect. 

As of this evening, the track of the storm has ticked a little bit east. Sound familiar? That's what last Monday's storm ended up doing. 

In that case last week, the little bit of an eastward shift allowed more cold air to infiltrate the storm, which resulted in more snow and less rain.

That definitely won't happen this time. 

There is really no cold air for this storm to work with. And the dynamic system is bringing a big surge of wet, warm air northward from the subtropics. So, we definitely have no snow-friendly air to work with. 

That means a LOT of rain. The only snow will be at the very back end of the storm, and that snow won't amount to much. 

Very much like last week's storm, a lot of thunderstorms south and east of the storm center this afternoon is affecting its track. Those storms tend to push the track of the storm a little more eastward than if those storms didn't really exist. 

FLOOD THEAT ASSESSMENT

This evening, the storm was over eastern South Carolina. It's forecast to move due north, which would take it right up the Champlain Valley around late morning or early afternoon Monday. 

On that path, the heaviest rain would come closer to Vermont, hence the higher rainfall expectations; Most of us in Vermont under this scenario would get 1.5 to 3 inches of rain, with the highest amounts along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains and in far southeastern Vermont around Brattleboro.

For the third time this month, this amounts to a storm that's extremely wet by December standards. Winter rain and melted snowfall tends to be lighter in the winter than in the summer. That's because colder air can hold less moisture than warmer air. 

But since so much warm air has been entrained into this storm, and the two previous ones, these systems have been very wet. 

As mentioned this morning, very warm temperatures and high humidity would melt the snow rapidly in higher elevations, adding to the runoff. 

The expected flood crest along the Winooski River at Essex Junction has been increased to a crest of 15.8 feet, solidly in the moderate flood range. At those levels, North Williston Road goes way under water. Also, at that level, expect the water to close Route 2 in Jonesville, Bridge Street in Richmond, Poor Farm Road in South Burlington, and a good chunk of the Intervale in Burlington. 

The good news is at this time of year, unlike in July, there's no crops to destroy. And moderate flood stage won't flood houses along the Winooski River Valley. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, the Hoosick River will come close to moderate flood stage. Most other rivers will either go into minor flood or come close to it. That means field flooding, some low-lying roads closed, ponding of water on other roads, and a hydroplaning on wet highways if you're out there driving tonight and Monday. 

The bottom line, as I said this morning, I still believe downtown Montpelier, Barre, Johnson, Ludlow and other towns smashed by July flooding should fare much better this time. Though I'd still remove items from basements to be on the safe side. 

HIGH WINDS

The threat from damage due to high winds in Vermont have gone down somewhat in Vermont. The western slopes of the Green Mountains are under a wind advisory for gusts to 55 mph. That could  cause a smattering of power outages. 

In general, the highest winds from a storm like this hit east of the storm's path. That puts the eastern half of Vermont in the zone for stronger winds, sort of. The National Weather Service is forecasting highest gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range east of the Green Mountains.

This won't be like the powerhouse wind storm that caused so much damage in Vermont last December. 

CAVEATS

As always, we already know the storm won't play out exactly as we outlined above. There will always be surprises. Probably minor surprises, but there's a slight chance of big surprises, too.

If the storm veers well to the west of the forecast track, say over central New York and the middle or western Adirondacks, the wind threat would be much worse. If it goes a little further east than what I've outlined, rainfall will be slightly lighter, but still substantial, and the flood threat would remain. 

Some late breaking new data from around 5 or 6 p.m. this evening doesn't show much shift in the storm's forecast track compared to forecasts earlier this afternoon.

The new data shows heavy rain in Vermont, with that flood threat. But also similar to forecasts earlier today, the heaviest downpours look like they will go through western Massachusetts and Connecticut, western and central New Hampshire and far southeastern Vermont, and western Maine.

I expect to hear news of fairly substantial flooding in New Hampshire and Maine, probably worse than what Vermont sees. 

I don't think this will be a historic storm, at least around here, but will have quite a few impacts. We should take it seriously. 

Sunday Morning Storm Update: For Now, Flood Threat Increases A Bit, But Wind Threat Diminishes Slightly

Not a snow prediction map for a change. Here's the
National Weather Service in South Burlington's idea
of how much rain will fall with the upcoming storm.
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see.
Note that the forecast is subject to change.

 We're in what we call the windshield wipering phase of forecasts for the storm that will soon strike Vermont, the one that is already making Florida miserable and is or will do the same to the entire eastern U.S. 

By windshield wipering I mean that the expected storm track goes a little west, than a little east, then back and forth with each new computer weather forecast.

 Up here in Vermont the exact track of the storm will determine if this will be more of a flood risk or more of a wind risk. More info on that in a bit

The big pictures shows one bit of preliminary good news. So far at least, I've seen no reports of tornadoes in Florida or the Southeast. That's a good thing, of course, but the threat is not over yet. 

Flood watches, wind alerts and coastal flood watches extend from Florida to Maine, and on into southeastern Canada. 

Under normal circumstances this time of year, this would be one humdinger of a snowstorm or blizzard to the west of the storm's track. But there is incredibly little cold air available for this storm. 

On the tail end of the storm, snow showers will fall in the Appalachians from North Carolina to New England, but that part of the storm won't be a big deal. It's rain and wind that's the problem here. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

If you remember, the last time we had a storm, a week ago, we started with flood threats from expected heavy rains, but that diminished as the threat of snow pushed into that forecast.

That's absolutely not the scenario that's playing out here, so I think we'll have a flood threat throughout this storm and its immediate aftermath. The rain begins in earnest tonight and continues Monday. How much flooding still depends on the track of the storm. 

Flood Threat

Early, uncertain indications are the storm will go right overhead or just to our east. That would in general put us in some fairly heavy rain.  All of Vermont is under a flood watch for good reason. 

Current forecasts are for 1 to 2.5 inches of rain, with more on the southeast facing slopes of the Green Mountains, Adirondacks and New Hampshire's White Mountains.  Also the southeastern corner of Vermont is in play for up to three inches of rain 

What makes the flood threat a little worse this time is the early snow pack in the mountains. This is such a warm storm that above freezing temperatures will reach up to 10,000 feet overhead.

Snow doesn't melt all that much if temperatures in the 30s to around 40 while it's raining. This time, though, it'll be in the upper 40s and 50s for many of us. Dew points - a measure of how much moisture is in the air, will be at near record highs for this time of year even up on the mountain summits. 

High dew points allow snow to melt much faster than it otherwise would. This means the rain and melting snow would all gush down from the mountains at once Monday, filling up rivers statewide.

The flooding won't be nearly as bad as what we dealt with in July, but it could still cause problems. 

All rivers in Vermont will rise sharply. Many will go into minor flood stage, with a couple maybe reaching moderate flood stage. That's high enough to close some roads, flood basements and maybe even surround the lowest lying buildings with water.

At this point - and the forecast could still change - the best chances of moderate flooding seem to be along the Hoosic River in southwestern Vermont and possibly the Winoosk in and near Essex Junction

Downtown Montpelier, Barre, Johnson and Ludlow are safe from the kind of flooding that wrecked those communities in the summer.  But even there, people might want to take stuff out of their basements if they are especially prone to flooding, even if the storm isn't extreme.

If you have to drive anywhere Monday and early Tuesday, be alert for road closures due to flooding.  Remember the adage, "turn around don't drown."  Getting caught in flooding is even more dangerous than it is in the summer, since the water is so cold this time of year. 

Also, Monday night, note that you can't see flooding ahead of you easily in the dark. 

Strong Winds 

Winds were already gusty this morning along some of the western slopes of the Green Mountains, but those winds won't really ramp up until later tonight and Monday. 

Strong, damaging winds are definitely possible along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, and the Taconics of southwestern Vermont. 

Again, this could change, but the threat of high winds has diminished a bit with the latest forecasts. Enough questions remain about the wind to keep the high wind watches up for the areas most in danger.

There's no question winds will get gusty everywhere, especially the western slopes in this storm. But once again, how strong those winds get depends on the storm's track.

If the storm goes overhead or just to our east, as forecasters are indicating this morning, winds won't get as strong as they could.  If the storm goes more to our west, the amount of rain will be cut a bit, but the western slope winds would roar much more intensely and cause more damage.

In any event, it looks the best chance of the strongest winds would hit between 3 a.m. and noon Monday.

Bottom Line

We're in for a stormy time tonight and Monday.  Today will be overcast, breezy and warm for the season. Rain chances will ramp up this afternoon and especially this evening. 

Rain will come down moderately to heavy at times later tonight and much of Monday. There might be lulls in the rain at times, but this is yet another very wet storm for this time of year.

Especially for those who live in or near the western slopes, get your LED candles ready today and charge up your devices. Scattered power outages are definitely something to watch for.

Rain will wind down Monday night and change to snow in the higher elevations especially but we don't expect much accumulation. The big "winners" might be the northern Green Mountains, which could get three inches of snow. 

That's not much compensation considering how much snow will disappear from Vermont, just in time for Christmas. 

After this mess goes by, no big storms are in the cards between now and Christmas Day.  Tomorrow will be the fourth Monday in a row with a nasty, potentially damage storm in Vermont, which is quite a streak.  

The Monday after tomorrow is Christmas.  The good news is that current forecasts indicate the weather on Christmas Eve and Day will be quiet.  That could change, but so far, I see no signs of big storm trouble for the holiday.