Wednesday Evening Vermont Storm/Flood Update: The Worst Starts Now, But Some Good News

Rising waters along a creek in Fairfax, Vermont amid
drenching rains this afternoon. Flooding is still
likely overnight in Vermont, but it shouldn't be
nearly as bad as the one we had last December. 

 A soaking rain has drenched Vermont and much of the rest of New England pretty much all day, as expected. 

As of 5 p.m., that wasn't enough to touch off any flooding around here. At least not yet. 

But the flood threat has always been between early this evening and tomorrow morning. That's still the case. 

The good news is that although flooding looks inevitable to me, it won't be as bad as last December. 

The expected total amount of rainfall from this storm, between what has already fallen and what will come this evening, is a little bit less than the predictions we saw a couple days ago. Which of course is great news. 

Temperatures in northern Vermont have been cooler than forecast, which has slowed the snow melt. They'll briefly bump up this evening well into the 40s before crashing downward later on. 

The dry ground from an autumn of drought has been able to absorb a lot of today's rain. Now things are finally saturated, and small streams and creeks are rising. 

But with stream flows low to start, it'll take quite a bit to get things flooding. They will flood, but unless a big surprise hits with the rain tonight, this shouldn't be anything cataclysmic. This time, anyway.

Since about 99.999999 percent of all Vermonters have at least a hint of PTSD from the frequent big floods we've had over the past couple of years, I know a flood watch gets the heart racing. And not in a good way. 

So people have been nervous about this storm. As always with this kind of thing, channel that nervousness into deep breaths and common sense. Especially since we'll need to be careful with tonight's flood threat, even though we know this probably won't turn out to be a catastrophe. 

You know the drill. Don't drive through flood water. If the road is closed, turn around and find another way to get where you're going. That kind of thing.

THIS EVENING

I supposed there was sort of a lull in the rainfall late this afternoon, but it wasn't much of one, certainly less of a quiet period than expected.  Most of us have had somewhere close to an inch of rain through 5 p.m., give or take. 

A new round of heavier rain was moving into Vermont from the southwest as of 5 p.m. and that will be our big drencher this evening.  We're probably in for another 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, plus the snow melt. Which is why the flood watch is still up. 

Most rivers, if they flood, will reach minor flood stage, which is why we don't expect big time destruction once again in those towns and cities in the flood plains. The Otter Creek in Rutland County still looks like it might be the most troublesome one of the bunch. It might get pretty close to homes in Rutland and Center Rutland as it reaches moderate flood stage. 

I do anticipate some trouble with local washouts on back roads and maybe sone culvert trouble here and there. We still expect some road closures tomorrow morning on low lying roads.

Especially once we get past midnight, temperatures are still expected to crash, as we've said in previous forecasts.  We won't get much snow out of it, maybe one to as much as three inches in the mountains 

Areas near Lake Ontario and the western Adirondacks are in for another big lake affect snowstorm tomorrow, but those will diminish to light snow showers and flurries by the time they reach Vermont. It might be good for another inch or two of semi-replacement snow up in the ski areas. 

Thursday will also be blustery and chilly with winds gusting as high as 40 mph. 

But after this oddly wet storm, we'll be back to business as usual for December. A couple of weak systems will spread a little light snow, rain or schmutz across Vermont early next week. After a chilly Friday and Saturday, we'll become a little on the warm side for December once again.