Big Snowy Clipper Windbag To Hit Wide Area, Including Vermont, But HUGE, Warmer Change In Forecast After

The latest snow prediction map from the National
Weather Service has a kind of surprisingly large
amount of forecast snow for an Alberta Clipper,
but this one is stronger than usual. The southern
and northern Green Mountains look like the big
winners with possible one-foot accumulations
in a couple spots. Most of us get 3-8 inches,
with a little less than that Champlain Valley.

 The now-famous Alberta Clipper is now making its way across the Great Lakes and heading into the Northeast, dragging lots of snow and especially wind with it. All wonderful if you like blasts of winter. 

This storm is indeed one big windbag.  As of this morning, wind advisories were up from South Dakota all the way to New England and as far south as South Carolina. 

Some of the  Great Lakes shorelines are already buried in feet of snow after the storms this past weekend. At last check, Barnes Corners, New York was up to 65 inches total. Cassadaga, New York was not that far behind with 56.5 inches.

The lake effect continued Tuesday, with more whiteouts and big traffic pileups.  Five fatalities have unfortunately been associated with the lake effect so far.

Part of an Ohio high school roof collapsed under the weight of the snow. Roof collapses have also been reported in and near Erie, Pennsylvania, which has received more than three feet of snow.

This gusty storm will reinvigorate the lake effect, dropping another foot of snow on some beleaguered towns. The buried Tug Hill Plateau east of Watertown, New York could see another 18 inches out of this. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

It doesn't take much to cause real problems, as I keep mentioning, and it happened last evening in parts of the Champlain Valley. From about Burlington southward, light snow fell as temperatures dropped last evening, causing quite a few slide-offs and stuck vehicle. Meanwhile, from Burlington north, everything was perfect with dry, clear roads last evening. 

Goes to show how localized some winter travel problems can get. 

This morning was also the coldest of the year so far, with lows near 10 degrees in many spots in Vermont well away from the Champlain Valley. 

Starting this afternoon and probably lasting into Friday morning, challenges will continue on Vermont roads as that Alberta clipper system rolls in. Alberta clippers are windy, sometimes moisture-starved storms that come out of an area near Alberta, Canada and move east to southeastward into the Great Lakes and Northeast. 

South winds will pick up through the day especially in the Champlain Valley. Snow should break out this afternoon.

Tonight will stay snowy and windy, with blowing snow obviously making things that much worse. Thursday, the storm's cold front will come through, shifting the strong winds to the west. It'll also cause some briefly heavy snow showers or even snow squalls to break out.

Those squalls can be dangerous, especially as temperatures start out a little above freezing and then crash. Any water on the road quickly freezes, and the snow that suddenly start coming down makes it much worse. Plus, someone traveling along the roads goes from dry pavement and ice in an instant. On top of that, the visibility gets so bad you can't see what's going on ahead of you

That's a recipe for some multi-vehicle crashes, so be aware on Thursday. If a heavy snow shower comes in or in the off chance you get a snow squall warning, just don't bother driving until after things pass and the road crews can get a chance to come out and fix things up.

Accumulations

There's actually going to be quite a bit of snow in Vermont for an Alberta Clipper. They usually don't have much moisture to work with so you usually don't get much snow with these. But this one is stronger than usual and will also be able to pick up some additional energy from the still ice-free Great Lakes. 

A winter weather advisory is up for pretty much all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley. The valley, will probably only pick up two to four inches of snow. Most towns in the winter weather advisory area should see a decent three to eight inches by Friday morning. 

The Green Mountains are hitting the jackpot again with six to 12 inches. The far southern and far northern Green Mountains are in the sweet spots. The southern Green Mountains could easily see a good foot of snow or a little more. I'm guessing hilly Route 9 between Bennington and Brattleboro could see some real trouble or even a temporary shutdown tonight and part of tomorrow 

The other sweet spot is up by Jay Peak once again where they could easily see more than a foot of snow.

LONG COLD WAVE CANCELED

I'm pretty stunned, to be honest, by how much the forecast has changed for Sunday and beyond.

Yes, it's going to be wicked cold and pretty windy at times Friday and Saturday (Highs mostly in the 20s, lows single digits to low teens). 

But unlike previous forecasts, this cold wave is not going to stick around. I guess I was wrong the other day when I said this might be a particularly cold December! 

There's still going to be a southward dip in the jet stream in the middle of North America that will keep the Northern Plains a little on the chilly side.

But a northward bulge in that jet stream along and off the Eastern Seaboard looks like it's going to be much stronger than originally thought. 

That means what would have been a reinforcing shot of cold air Sunday is going to get deflected well to our north, so a warming trend should start on the second half of the weekend.

This pattern opens the door for a storm to originate near the Gulf Coast and move northward, somewhat to our west. That means warmer temperatures and probably mostly rain during the first half of next week. Sorry snow lovers! 

It'll turn colder again behind that storm, but probably not all that cold.