Vermont Flood Risk Mostly Averted, Weird Lake Effect Snow Band All The Way Into Vermont

What I call the "Woof River" a small stream running by
my St. Albans, Vermont house, was running at more than
a tiny trickle for the first time since August after 
yesterday's heavy rains. An autumn drought had left
the "Woof River" without any water in it through
most of the autumn. 

For once, it's nice to report on a storm that wasn't quite as bad as expected, and we've got that here in Vermont. 

If anything, the storm was actually slightly wetter than expected in at least some areas of Vermont. But flooding was limited. 

I think the drought conditions leading up to this storm were a saving grace.  There was plenty of capacity for water to soak into the ground, and there was plenty of room within the rivers themselves to add water, since stream flows were so low.

Also, temperatures remained lower than forecast in much of eastern, central and northern Vermont, so snow didn't melt as much as feared. Which meant was less runoff. 

The only flood warnings I saw in Vermont early this morning was near Killington and Bridgewater, with minor flooding, and along the Passumpsic River in and near Lyndonville, That flooding was also very minor, and certainly far from the scale the Northeast Kingdom suffered through back on July 30.

We now know the drill, though, having been through so many floods recently. A berm constructed after repeated floods protected a mobile home park in Lyndonville from any floodwater. Also, with flood warnings in place Wednesday, the state put 13 swift water rescue teams on standby just in case things got out of hand. 

They didn't get out of hand this time. As of 8 a.m., those flood warnings had been lifted.

There were fears the Otter Creek around Rutland would cause some real trouble, with forecasts calling for a crest within a whisker of major flood stage. Instead, the Otter Creek crested a couple inches below even minor flood level last night.

The Mad River at Moretown, which was another potential flood issue, caused absolutely no trouble whatsoever. Forecasts crests for the Winooski River at Essex Junction for this morning have been revised sharply downward, and trends show even that lower crest won't be reached.

So Vermont, we're good!

RAINFALL

I think if the ground had been soggy and river levels at normal or above normal levels before yesterdays' storm, there would have been some flooding trouble in Vermont.

Most places south and east of a line from roughly Burlington to Newport had at least two inches of rain which is a ton for a December storm.  After all, this was an atmospheric river that affected New England, so rainfall was pretty extraordinary, given the season. 

Burlington received 1.74 inches of rain Wednesday, the city's wettest day since July 10.  It was also a record for the wettest December 11 on record, beating the old mark of 1.43 inches in 1952. 

That 1952 storm was much worse than the one we just had.  In that 1952 episode, temperatures started out in the 50s on December 11, then quickly crashed. Rain changed to heavy snow and that continued on December 12. Burlington had  11.4 inches of snow and total rain and melted snow amounted to 2.75, which is a bit more than what normally falls in the entire month of December.

AFTERMATH

Temperatures didn't actually cool as much behind last night's cold front quite as much as expected either, with readings holding near the freezing mark as dawn broke this morning. 

That meant most places received very little snow on the back side of the storm, with one very major exception. 

A band of lake effect snow all the way from Lake Ontario
was still managing to dump snow on Interstate 89 in
Bolton, Vermont early this morning, as this 
traffic cam grab shows.

An intense band of lake effect snow has formed and was coming off Lake Ontario, dumping two to three feet of snow not far from Watertown, New York and around the Tug Hill Plateau area out there. 

I actually can't remember a lake effect snow band that held together so well across the Adirondacks and into Vermont extending into eastern parts of the state, which is wild. 

It did largely skip over the immediate area around Lake Champlain, but for a time, that narrow lake effect snow band all the way from Lake Ontario was dumping a fair amount of snow along Interstate 89 east of Burlington, especially around Williston, Richmond, Bolton and Waterbury.  That snow band at least temporarily drifted north into Franklin County by shortly after 8 a.m. 

Other than that snow band, today will be blustery and cold, and temperatures might actually fall as cold west winds continue. 

After a couple dry days Friday and Saturday, a couple of modest systems are still likely to spread a little rain and snow our way during the first half of next week. Those won't be blockbuster storms, though.