Why Didn't The World Cool Down As Expected In 2024?

Earth was supposed a tiny bit cooler in 2024 than in
2023 but that ain't happening. Scientists are pondering
an apparent recent acceleration in the pace of
global warming. 

 Roughly at this time last year, I told you that 2023 would be the world's warmest year on record, due in large part to climate change, but 2024 would probably be slightly cooler.  

So much for that idea.

The final figures aren't in yet, but 2024 will certainly beat out last year as the world's warmest.

The Washington Post took a deep dive into what happened, and some scientists are worried we might have entered new, worse phase of climate change. But opinions are sharply divided on this idea.

 This year was supposed to be a tiny bit cooler than 2023 overall because an El Nino atmospheric and oceanic pattern ended. 

El Nino tends to boost global temperatures, so that El Nino teamed up with climate change to make 2023 especially torrid. 

One major factor is the oceans, which pretty much didn't cool off at all in 2024. That helped impart added warmth on land,

Scientists don't know whether this warmer ocean system is just a fluke that will correct itself in a few month or whether it's a still-poorly understood phenomenon that would make climate change even worse that thought.

Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, told WaPo that it's possible ocean temperatures could still crater in the next few months, and this whole year of hot oceans is just some weird natural variability. But, he added, "I think signs are certainly pointing toward fairly persistent warmth."

More often than not, the globe heating El Nino is followed by the world-cooling La Nina, an oceanic and atmospheric patter roughly the opposite of El Nino. But the expected La Nina phase, which should have been in full force by now, has sputtered.

Again, we don't know whether that's because of natural cycle or whether climate change is messing things up. 

Per WaPo:

"Whatever the mix of factors or how long they last, scientists say they lack of a clear explanation lowers their confidence that climate change will follow the established pattern that models have predicted.

'We can't real out eventually much bigger changes,' Hausfather said. 'The more we research climate change, the more we learn that uncertainty isn't our friend.'"

There's one major additional factor explaining the unexpected heat of 2023 and 2024 that scientists are paying close attention to: Clouds, Or rather the lack thereof .

New scientific research reveals that Earth has gotten less cloudy than it once was. Especially in the last couple of years. Fewer clouds, more solar radiation, more heat for you and me.

Once again, this question arises: Is the lack of cloud cover just a weird blip that will go away? Or is climate change evaporating some of Earth's clouds. If it's the latter, then climate change will continue to accelerate faster than most scientists expect. 

Or there's a third possibility, as NBC News reports. New pollution control in recent years means far less sulfur emissions from ships. Scientists has previous said that these new pollution controls did reduce particles in the atmosphere, which had a very minor warming effect the atmosphere. 

Now, says NBC and numerous other news outlets,  the lack of sulfur particles in the atmosphere is reducing the amount of low cloud cover over the oceans. That cloud cover help prevent the oceans from warming too fast. With some of those clouds gone, perhaps the ocean is now able to heat up faster. 

Which in turn could produce warmer, and sometimes wetter air currents making landfall on continents and extending well inland. 

In any event, the expected cooling after El Nino ended hasn't materialized. If that trend continues, the next El Nino could really make the hot global years of 2023 and 2024 seem downright chilly.