After Icy Start Today, Vermont/New England Braces For Floods

Winooski River floodwaters race past buildings in
Winooski, Vermont during serious flooding in
December, 2023.  Fingers crossed that the 
anticipated flooding Wednesday and Thursday
in Vermont won't be as bad as last year's event. 

 With that drought in place and forecasts issued in late November calling for a cold, dry December, flooding was not on my New England holiday season bingo card. 

But here we are. 

Flood watches have been posted for all of Vermont except Grand Isle County from tomorrow afternoon into Thursday morning. The watches extend down into western Massachusetts, and I'm sure they will be expanded into New Hampshire and Maine. 

Details below. 

TODAY

Before we get there, we still have a little ice to deal with. There's still a little snow on some roads from last nights burst. Most places got one to three inches, as expected, though I did see a report of 5.5 inches out of Mount Holly. 

Patches of freezing drizzle lingered overnight as well. In the Champlain Valley, it had gotten above 32 degrees by early this morning, so it's mostly good there, except maybe on back roads. But it was still at or below that critical level along and east of the Green Mountains, so you'll want to watch yourself driving to work this morning. Take it easy, take it slow, you know the drill.

In most places, the ice will be mostly gone by the time you read this. But colder hollows and untreated back roads, driveways and sidewalks could hold onto the ice most of the day

Otherwise, today is the calm before the storm, with clouds and warming temperatures. The show begins tonight and intensifies Wednesday. 

WEDNESDAY

It'll rain all day, with the rainfall rate getting heavier as the day wears on. 

It might be cold enough very early in the morning for a little freezing rain here and there in eastern Vermont. But it's also going to get quite warm in the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 40s in the northwest corner of Vermont to the low and mid 50s elsewhere.  

That will get the snow melting rapidly along with the rain, setting the stage for that flooding. It'll take probably until late afternoon at least before it starts causing real problems, but Wednesday night and early Thursday rather rough at least in a few spots. 

Total rainfall in Vermont should be between 1.5 and 2.5 inches, with locally higher amounts. This is addition to the snowmelt will surely cause at least some localized flash flooding which could damage culverts, back roads, etc.  

Forecast rainfall amounts are still running very high for
this time of year, with many places in and near
Vermont expected more than two inches of rain. 

Flooding is possible anywhere in Vermont, and all of New England, for that matter. In Vermont, it seems the heaviest rain and relatively greatest risk of flooding would be east of a line from roughly Fair Haven to Jay Peak.  

Most rivers in Vermont will go into flood stage Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Fingers crossed most of the flooding will be minor, but we'll keep an eye on it. 

So far, it still looks like Otter Creek in Center Rutland might be the worst, flirting with major flood status that could potential at least flood basements and streets in and around Rutland.

This is a dynamic storm, so we see other hazards cropping up around New England. Strong, damaging winds could hit parts of Maine with this. There's even a risk of severe thunderstorms across southern New England. 

I'm most worried about folks in parts of New Hampshire. More than four inches of rain could potentially pour down on the southern and eastern slopes of the White Mountains. Combined with snow melt, the flooding could really get scary over there. 

That region got hit even worse than Vermont with last December's flooding. Luckily, water levels are low in New Hampshire, so it very likely won't be as bad as last year. 

Fingers crossed, I think I can say the same for Vermont, but there's no guarantees. True, the ground is much drier than it was at this time last year, and river levels are starting at pretty low levels. That will give us some wiggle room with the runoff. 

Still, since most of the flooding will hit when it's dark, that makes it pretty dangerous. You don't see flooded roads easily when you're out driving until it's too late.  You could get stuck in the water in an instant.  Also, people who do get stuck in water are in even greater peril than they would be had they gotten caught in the flooding last July. 

It's much colder now, so hyperthermia would set in much more quickly. 

As floodwaters continue very early Thursday, the anticipated changeover to snow is looking pretty unimpressive for most of us. But the snow and falling temperatures, combined with expected flood-related road closures Thursday morning, will make things tricky for commuters once again.

No rest for the weary.

That said, after this storm gets out of our hair, I don't see an immediate threat for any further big storms for at least a few days after this one.