Vermont's Iffy Shot At A White Christmas Tonight, Then A Cold Blast

If you don't have snow on the ground now, a storm
later today and tonight gives you the best chance of
a white Christmas. Though it's still iffy in the
Champlain Valley and lowlands of southern 
parts of the state. 

There's still some snow on the ground in much of eastern Vermont and in the high elevations, but lower spots in western and central Vermont are seeing bare ground just a week before Christmas.  

Since so many people are invested in having a traditional White Christmas, will it actually happen?

That's a big maybe.  Depends what happens later today and tonight. 

A modest storm is coming through, passing just to our south tonight. That path would normally put Vermont in the sweet spot for some snow, and for sure, most of us should get some. 

This time, though, there's not a lot of cold air to work with, so things could go either way. 

The storm is coming in a little faster than first thought, which means it'll start this afternoon. When it's warmer.  The higher elevations are fine. It'll snow, and just that'll just add to whatever's on the ground there. 

The valleys, though, will start off as rain.  Plus, it doesn't look like it will cool off all that rapidly as we head into tonight.  Which leaves valley dwellers in communities like Burlington, Middlebury, Rutland, Bennington and Brattleboro are in a race against time.

Will it get cold enough later tonight for it to snow before the moisture from this storm gets whisked away, ending the precipitation?

Said precipitation could come down  hard for a time in south central Vermont. Heavier precipitation tends to cool the atmosphere a little, so those areas stand a better chance of seeing some snow.  No guarantees for those of you on valley floors in Rutland, Castleton, Fair Haven and Clarendon, though.  But you all have a shot of at a couple inches of snow at least. 

The southern and central Champlain Valley seems problematic to me. The National Weather Service hour-by-hour temperature graphic has Burlington's temperature only falling to 34 degrees or so by 3 a.m.  By then, most of the small storm will be leaving the state, so areas close to the lake might get screwed out of snow. 

I think the northern Champlain Valley up by Georgia, St. Albans, Swanton, those sort of place will manage to squeeze out an inch or two of snow. Not sure about the Champlain Islands, though. 

All this said, the National Weather Service forecast - and anybody else's forecast for that matter - has a high bust potential.  If it gets a little colder than forecast, everybody gets at least a couple inches of snow, and more likely a few inches. If it stays a little warmer, more people get rain. 

For now, it looks like most places will clock in with two or three inches of snow, with greater amounts the higher up you go.  Places near Lake Champlain, and the lowest elevations of southwest and southeast Vermont maybe only an inch. Or possibly less. 

Do plan on some tricky driving conditions tonight. The higher you go in elevation, the worse it will get. 

MUCH COLDER

Once temperatures get below freezing later tomorrow morning or afternoon, it will stay below that magical 32 degree reading until Christmas Day afternoon at the earliest. So any snow that does fall will stick. Plus, there's a chance of a little more snow Friday and Saturday, but there would be no more than a dusting in the valleys. The ski areas could pick up a couple additional inches of fluff, though.

Be prepared to shiver Saturday through Monday, as the toughest cold snap of the year so far is still in the cards.  It won't be anything close to record-breaking, but it will feel shockingly chilly given the warmth we've had all year. 

Banana belt towns will see highs in the teens to around 20 and lows close to 0 during this episode. Most of the rest of Vermont gets below zero Saturday and Sunday nights. 

A major and possibly fairly long lasting warm up does look like it wants to start either Christmas afternoon or the day after. That relative balminess could last to the New Year, depending on whether iffy long range forecasts hold.