Dangerous Tornado Outbreak Lurks In Southern United States Today

There's a risk of tornadoes, some strong and long lasting
in the South today and tonight. The greatest risk is in
the orange and red zones of this map. 

 A year-end tornado outbreak seems like it's about to blossom in the South today, throwing one more potential disaster as a United States to close a year that brought us far too many destructive storms.  

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says most of the Gulf Coast states from eastern Texas to Georgia, and as far north as Tennessee are under the gun today.  The most threatened area is in central Louisiana and southern Mississippi, 

The bad weather was getting off to an ominously early start. At least five tornado reports came in from right along the Gulf Coast in Alabama and Mississippi yesterday.

Already as of mid-morning, a tornado watch has been issued for most of Louisiana, along with far eastern Texas and southwestern Mississippi.  A smattering of tornado warnings have already been issued in Louisiana, and severe thunderstorm watch is added to the mix in northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas.

It's only going to get worse as the day goes on, apparently. 

There is enough spin in the atmosphere to create the risk of a few isolated twisters this morning where there's that tornado watch. That there's already a small risk before the main show arrives feels ominous to me, like all hell might break loose this afternoon.

We have no guarantee that will happen of course. But forecasters do say that this afternoon, that same area will see dramatically worse atmospheric condition.  

THE SETUP

A strengthening storm will pass north and west of the main tornado risk area later today and tonight, dragging a cold front towards the region.  The cold front should contain lines of severe thunderstorms with some exceptionally strong winds and some embedded tornadoes.

Worse, in the warm, humid air ahead of the cold front, powerful, rotating supercell thunderstorms are expected.  The changing wind speeds and direction with height near these storms could help them produce strong, cycling tornadoes. 

That means a long lasting supercell would put down a strong tornado that would blast through a region for several miles. Then it would lift, only to drop another intense tornado and so on and so forth. 

That's the kind of storm that produced a series of tornadoes in and near Kentucky in December, 2021 including one that virtually destroyed the small city of Mayfield. 

If this type of storm happens with this episode, a lot of it would happen at night, just as it did in December, 2021

These tornadic storms are especially dangerous at night, since people are not awake to receive warnings. Also, despite warnings on TV and weather radios, human nature, being what it is, makes people want to rely on visual cues that a tornado is coming. 

You don't have those visual cues at night. So people might not take shelter until it's too late.

For now, there's a moderate risk of tornadoes in parts of the South, which is the second highest of a five point alert level.  The Storm Prediction Center considered raising the alert level to the highest level, which is rare for winter, but there's still a little uncertainty about how the storms will take shape. 

Of course, as of this morning, we don't yet know how many tornadoes we'll see, or how strong that might be. We also don't know whether they'll blast through populated areas, or remain relatively harmlessly over open fields or in dense southern forests. 

Tomorrow the tornado and severe weather threat will move into the Southeastern U.S, with areas from Georgia to southern Virginia at risk.

WINTER TORNADOES

Spring and early summer are the peak times for tornadoes, but winter outbreaks do happen sometime.

If those winter tornado swarms do happen, it's most likely in the Gulf Coast states. That's because that area is in close proximity to the muggy air over the Gulf of Mexico, which can be drawn inland by some storms. That oppressive air is a key ingredient for tornadoes. 

One of the most notorious winter tornado outbreaks of the past is that December, 2021 episode I've already mentioned.  The tornado that hit Mayfield was the nation's deadliest December tornado on record its 165-mile path was among the longest for any tornado on record. 

Another tornado outbreak on January 21-22 1999 unleashed 129 tornadoes from Missouri to Texas, causing nine deaths and 39 injuries. 

While there has been no big overall change in the number of U.S. tornadoes over the decades, they are increasing somewhat in the winter.   

Cold weather this tine of year usually squashes the possibility of tornadoes. But some scientists think that because winter warm spells are getting toastier, that opens the door to more tornadoes than we once had during the cold seaoosn