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| A large hawk took advantage of clear skies and good hunting weather Saturday to perch on a tree in my back yard to help rid my property of moles, voles and mice. |
The biggest "crisis" so far was the flood threat we had this past Wednesday and Thursday, but that turned out to be no big deal at all.
We've had snow and ice and wind and rain, of course, but knock on wood, nothing scary.
The weather has been easy so far this month, compared to many early winters in Vermont, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
Sure, we'll have complications with the weather this upcoming week, but nothing terrible.
We can start with this morning, which was the coldest so far this early winter season. That's not saying much. It got down to 13 this morning in Burlington. That's a "mere" 25 degrees warmer than the record low for the date, so we're not exactly dying here.
A few places that have some snow cover in northern and eastern Vermont did make it just below zero, but again, that's no great shakes for mid-December.
UPCOMING WEEK
We have a few sort of storms coming up this week, but none of them look super big.
The first will make a run at us tonight and tomorrow, but it will fall apart because it's running into that high pressure system that gave us the near-record high air pressures yesterday. Burlington peaked at 1048.8 millibars or 30.97 inches. So it was up there.
Sun will fade behind clouds today. Tonight's "storm," such as it is, will probably throw a few snowflakes at us in northern Vermont, maybe, and deposit a dusting south through early Monday morning.
A stronger, warmer storm arrives Monday night with - sorry, winter sports fans - rain. It won't rain all that hard, and the way the storm is oriented, the Champlain Valley will probably only manage a tenth of an inch of rain if that. Other spots in Vermont should see only a quarter inch of rain, give or take. Obviously, no need to worry about any flooding at all.
You will notice some gusty winds, especially in the Champlain Valley, but again, nothing too frightening.
After that, we're going to keep getting sprayed with small storms. The further out we look the harder it is to tell you what kind of storm, exactly when they'll hit and what will fall from the sky. Temperatures will start to trend cooler starting later Wednesday and into next weekend, so chances increase that anything we do get will be snow.
Something small looks like it wants to come through later Wednesday with a little snow or rain. Another small packet of light snow seems possible next Saturday, at least if current forecasts hold.
CHRISTMAS QUESTIONS
Since next weekend is right before Christmas, we start to look at travel weather, and also the question of who, if anyone in Vermont gets a traditional White Christmas.
Bottom line on those question is it's too soon to tell.
Click-baiting weather geeks on social media keep bleating about some sort of Big East Coast Snowstorm ™ around Christmas, but there's no way you can definitively say that. There's dozens upon dozens of weather models that depict long range forecasts.
These click baiters cherry pick one or two of the models that go nuts about a big snowstorm while ignoring the dozens of computer models that yawn and give us no particular noteworthy weather for the holiday.
Here's what we actually know, and it isn't much, at least not yet:
There seems to be signals that there might be some sort of storminess in or near New England somewhere around Christmas Day. But that's not 100 percent certain. If that storm does form, we don't know when it will hit, how strong it might be, whether it will be snow or rain or a mix.
We don't even know whether those somewhat colder temperatures we're expecting next weekend will stick around for a few more days and linger into Christmas.
If you're that interested in whether we'll see a storm on or around Christmas, you're going to have to wait until just a few days before Santa actually arrives. I, of course, will keep you posted.
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