The Rain Is Here, New England Girds For Floods, Wind, Storms

Who stole the snow? About five or six inches of 
snow that was on the ground yesterday in St. Albans
disappeared overnight as rain and warm temperatures
hit. The continued snow melt today along with
heavy rain through this evening continues the
flood risk in Vermont into Thursday morning. 

Well our storm is here, and the flood watches, high wind alerts and even severe thunderstorm possibilities are in place in various parts of New England. 

My first reaction when I got up this rainy Wednesday morning in St. Albans, Vermont was "Who stole the snow?" The four or five inches of snow that was on the ground yesterday was almost completely gone by 7 a.m. 

That ongoing snow melt, especially from the deeper snow cover up in the higher elevations, will contribute to the flood threat later on.   

This one qualifies as a so-called bomb cyclone, which means it's intensifying quickly. When storms are in such an intensifying phase, they tend to cause the most mischief. 

Which is why so many bad things will happen today. 

Yes, I know I'm being dramatic, as I still don't think this will be catastrophic, like the kind of stuff we endured in the summers of 2023 and 2024. Here in Vermont, it won't be the worst flood of the year, which isn't saying much, given how much we suffered through in the downpours and torrents of July.

New England-wide, though there will be power outages, downed trees, and flooding extending through the entire region by the time this is done. 

The worst of the winds will hit far eastern New England, from Rhode Island up through Maine. Winds could gust over 60 mph, maybe 70 mph late this afternoon and tonight, which will definitely complicate things because those regions, too, will be dealing with flooding.

The storm's cold front will probably have a line of storms extending from southern New England to the Southeast. In eastern North Carolina and extreme southeast Virginia, this could spin off a couple of tornadoes. In Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts, the threat is strong winds with severe thunderstorms along a squall line late this afternoon or this evening. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The threat in Vermont continues to be almost exclusively the risk of flooding, though we will have some issues with a possible flash freeze early Thursday. And winds could get strong enough to cause some isolated power outages. 

The forecast hasn't changed a bit since yesterday. At least so far. 

As of 8 a.m. the rain had only really just begun in earnest. Less than a quarter inch of rain had fallen by then. But also by 8 a.m.. the radar had really filled in with plenty of rain across the state. It was coming down hard in many towns.

It'll rain at a pretty good clip through the morning, then maybe things will get a little lighter and more showery for a time late this morning and early afternoon.  Then it will come down hard again later this afternoon and the first part of tonight. 

That's when the trouble starts.  The small streams, creeks, marshes and standing water will tend to over flow, which isn't good at night because you can't really see what's going on. If you're out driving - especially after 4 p.m. - you'll want to watch two things:

First, the heavier rain will lead to a hydroplane risk if you're out on the highways. Slow it down, people.e

The second, bigger risk is if you're on a rural road, back road or what have you. You want to go really slow so you can see whether there's water across the road up ahead, or if the edges of the road are eroding.

If you see that, stop right there. Don't go through the water, as you don't know how deep it is, or whether the road beneath is still there.  If you see erosion, what appears to be solid road next to it might be undermined.

So just turn around and find another way to get where you're going. Better yet, if you're home and your house isn't in a flood-prone area, just sit tight tonight, relax and listen to the rain drum on your roof.

I don't know whether this will get bad enough to force any evacuations. I don't anticipate anything large scale. But if the worst happens and local emergency managers tell you to get out, then leave. Immediately. If your home is particularly flood prone, have a "to go" bag ready so you can just grab that and run if things get out of control in a hurry. 

Again, I don't expect anything like we saw during the flash floods of July 10-11, but it's worth it to be prepared if you have the bad luck to be in a worse-than-expected situation. 

I have noticed towns and cities have geared up for this event, as they've been through the drill so many times, unfortunately. Rutland, for example, has made sandbags and generators ready in case parts of the city get overrun with water. 

As far as the main rivers go, as of 8:30 a.m. I was waiting for updated flood crest forecasts.  The main rivers in Vermont should rise to their peak levels after midnight and through the morning Thursday. At least for the most part. 

Also, temperatures will crash overnight, and rain will change to a brief period of snow. The snow, combined with the water on the roads will freeze up, making for another crappy commute Thursday morning. On top of that, low lying roads might be under water, so you'll have to adjust plans if you usually go through places like North Williston Road to get where you're going. 

One weird thing that will happen after this storm is a real  change in air pressure. This storm is strong, so the barometric pressure is on the low side, though not threatening any records.

The strong high pressure system coming in though, will have remarkably high barometric pressure. It will come close, but very likely not break the record for highest air pressure on record in Vermont in December.

Such a strong high pressure system means it'll probably be really chilly Thursday and Friday nights, with lows by Saturday morning in the single numbers to low teens. Not super odd for December, but a reminder that we're still just at the start of winter. 

Be safe out there folks!