Rough Vermont Weather Week Getting Underway, Flood Risk Wednesday

 Here we go again.  

The calm before the storm. Clouds are reflected in
partly frozen water in a marshy area along 
Lake Champlain in St. Albans, Vermont on Sunday.

Vermont - and the rest of the Northeast - is in for an active and possibly damaging weather week as a weak storm, than a big one threaten the region. 

At best, the midweek storm will damage the nice snow cover ski resorts and elsewhere in the North Country have built up. At worst, flooding is a real possibility, as projected rainfall forecasts have trended upward.

First, we have to get through today. 

THIS AFTERNOON

A burst of snow is on tap to move southwest to northeast across Vermont this afternoon and evening. It'll only amount to around one to three inches for most of us, says the National Weather Service office in Burlington. 

However, the timing couldn't be worse, hitting in the late afternoon and evening commute. The snow will come down pretty heavily during that time, so the roads will ice up quickly. In all but the Champlain Valley, a winter weather advisory is in effect 1 p.m today to 10 a.m. Tuesday. 

The advisory goes on through the Tuesday morning commute because after the snow tapers off, a little freezing rain will linger overnight into the early hours Tuesday.  So things could be dicey on the roads, especially outside the Champlain Valley through the first part of tomorrow.

The Champlain Valley is not included in the winter weather advisory but is decidedly not off the hook with this this afternoon and evening. That burst of snow will come through here, too. Roads will briefly turn wet when it first starts snowing, then as temperatures drop a little bit, that'll ice up, and snow will quickly pile up on top of that.

It will probably snow a little too hard for the salt to work great, so expect to be stuck in traffic for a long time late this afternoon if you're in the Champlain Valley.  

Most of us will take it slow, and that would make things just fine. But there's always a few idiots out there, as you well know. Those morons will cause traffic crashes, gumming up the works on many major roads. Oh, joy.   

At least the Champlain Valley stands a chance of being slightly too warm for freezing rain during Tuesday's bright and early commute, so there's a small bright side there.

THE MAIN STORM 

The big, wet wave of strengthening low pressure forecast to move northward through New England has trended a little westward since we last looked at things Sunday morning.

The current forecast has the storm moving south to north right over Vermont Wednesday afternoon and evening. How much rain we get, and how much snow eventually mixes in toward the end, depends on whether the storm goes overhead, or a little to our west, or a little to our east. 

The forecast as it stands now opens the door for even heavier rain with that soggy storm than predictions from a couple days ago suggested. That puts at definite risk for flooding, even though river levels are now low due to the drought we've had. 

Vermont and surrounding areas are forecast to receive
two to three inches of precipitation (mostly rain but some
melted snow and ice) between now and Thursday morning
Combined with snow melt, this could cause some
midweek flooding in the region

The risk is region wide, as far west as central New York, but the best chances of flooding would be east and south of the Champlain Valley. 

 Many places will see two to three inches of rain, with locally higher amounts. That, combined with snowmelt, would put at least some rivers at or above flood stage.

The question at this point is how far above flood stage? Early indications are most of the river flooding will be minor, the type of thing that closes low-lying roads, makes some basements wet in flood plains, and covers fields.

 Which is not that big a deal since there's few crops to destroy this time of year,  like there would be in a summer flood.

Still, I'm not guaranteeing anything, so those of you in flood prone areas ought to keep abreast of updated forecasts. Once we get closer and into Wednesday, we'll need to start paying close attention to forecast river crests.  Those forecasts can change at the last moment, so we'll need to stay on our toes.

 If we get any flooding, it's most likely to hit between early Wednesday morning and early Thursday morning.

Besides the rivers, local small stream flooding and culvert backups can occur.  If you are prone to getting water in your basement during winter rain storms, I'd start moving stuff out of the way if you can so it doesn't get wet. 

Further east in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine, flooding and high winds are also a good bet. I'm most concerned about the southern and eastern slopes of the White Mountains in New Hampshire, which could really get socked by torrential rains and flooding in this kind of setup

Back in Vermont, the heavy rain looks like it will end as a period of snow Wednesday night. It's a little early to talk accumulation but best guess at this point is less than three inches in the valleys and a few inches in the mountains to replace just a little of the snow we'll surely lose in this storm. 

That snow forecast has a huge bust potential. There's still a chance we could get much more snow than I've outlined, or a little less. Lots of things to keep an eye on with this storm. Of course, I'll update as we go along through the end of the week.