Vermont Faces Another Thump Of Wet Snow Tomorrow.

Traffic backed up in Colchester, Vermont Friday aftternoon
due to that big thump of snow. Some or even most
of the state might well see a similar
burst of snow Sunday morning. 

 Now that we got one thump of snow out of the way in northern Vermont, we have another thump of snow on our way that looks like it could cover the entire state in snow, or close to it.   

At least we think so. This next system is at least as capable of giving us surprises as yesterday's snowy welcome to spring. 

Before we get there, we'll get to some final bits of news and factoids about yesterday's snow. 

Pretty much all of northern Vermont got three to six inches of snow.  For areas outside the Champlain Valley those amounts matched expectations. As we know, though, the Champlain Valley got a lot more than expected. 

The deepest accumulations I could see were 6.3 inches in Greensboro and 6 inches in Underhill, Morrisville and Walden.

It just rained in southern Vermont, which again matched the forecast issued prior to the storm. 

To add insult to injury, there was some freezing drizzle and freezing fog scattered around northern Vermont overnight. That, thankfully is now over.

After some morning clouds, fog, and perhaps a couple of stray flurries, the sun will start making more frequent appearances between the clouds as we go through the day. It might even get  mostly sunny for a time this afternoon. We should top out within a few degrees either side of 40 for highs. 

THE STORM 

The next storm is similar to the one we had yesterday, which moved west to east basically over the top of Vermont. 

We have the same questions as we did before yesterday's mess: Who gets snow, who gets rain, and who gets both?

If Sunday's storm goes to our north, everybody gets mostly rain. If it goes right over us, we have another north/south split. If it goes to our south, most of us get snow. 

The computer models, as always it seems, are still arguing over which track this will take. As of this morning, they're sort of leaning toward just south of us. Hence the snowier forecast for now. 

New winter weather advisories cover pretty much the same areas as yesterdays' event, but the advisory zone is a little bigger in size. It covers Vermont from the Green Mountains east from Springfield north to the Canadian border. The Adirondack are also under the advisory. 

The snow or rain, depending on the track of the storm,  should start in the hours leading up to dawn. Much like yesterday, the precipitation should come down hard for a few hours. This time, though, it will be during Sunday morning, not during the Friday afternoon rush, so fewer of us will be affected.

During the afternoon, we'll just have light snow and rain as temperatures get into the 30s. 

If everything works out as expected, - which I am in no way guaranteeing -most valleys would get 2 to 4 inches of wet, cement like snow.  The Green Mountains could get four to eight inches of snow.  This would give a boost to late season skiing, especially north, with yesterday's snow.  

The overall pattern will remain the same trough next week: Cooler than normal for this time of year and unsettled.

Our next shot at stormy weather is next Thursday, but it's still way too soon to think about what we'll deal with in that one. 

 

Still Not Much Clarity On Vermont Weather Forecast But Some New Clues Emerging

A big icicle formed on my shed yesterday as the
warming sun of mid-February increasingly fights
against the cold. Today will actually feel rather
springlike but winter isn't done with us yet. 

 If you have plans for this coming Wednesday and Wednesday night in Vermont, we can't help you much with any weather forecasts Those annoying computer weather forecasting models are still arguing amongst themselves. 

Which is odd, since Wednesday is only two days away. More on that in a minute, but if you are more of in the moment type, we've got you covered.

TODAY/TOMORROW

For starters, today will be the most springlike day we've had yet.  Temperatures should get well into the 30s across most valleys, and we should have a fair amount of sun, which feels warmer and stronger now that we're nearly two months past the winter solstice. Winds will be on the light side too,

I get it. A day with a high of 37 degrees isn't exactly full-blown spring. But it's a start after the frigid weather we've had over the past month. 

Any hints of spring are fleeting this time of year, too, and so it goes this time. Yet another weak disturbance should come through later tonight and early tomorrow. As has so often been the case this winter, the system is no big deal, but might have atrocious timing. 

The problem is some light snow showers might switch over to light, patchy freezing drizzle just in time for the Tuesday morning commute. In the case of any kind of freezing rain, it takes only a tiny bit to send your car flying off the road and into a ditch if you're not careful enough.

The tricky thing is this will be patchy and temperatures will be just below freezing. So you'll be cruising along on just wet pavement, then all of a sudden it's ice and the cars and trucks on the Interstate are suddenly doing a literally smashing dance with each other. 

So, slow it down just in case Tuesday morning. 

WEDNESDAY QUESTIONS

We're to the point now in which we can say there will probably be some sort of precipitation in at least part of Vermont Wednesday and Wednesday night.   

Tbat's not very helpful, but that's all we've got for now. 

A storm in the Midwest will be heading in our direction but it will be shearing out on its way east. That means the storm will be pulled and stretched and weakened. And therein lies the forecast questions. 

By the time it gets to New England, it will be a fairly narrow band of snow or mixed precipitation. Colder high pressure from Quebec will on Wednesday try to nose down into New England, while to the south, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will tried to feed into our weakening storm.

So, will the cold air win out and we get nothing? Or will the warm air win and we end up with a mix? Or, choice #3 favored by our winter sports industry, does this thing just drop a swath of snow right across Vermont.

For now, the best guess is far northern Vermont gets little or no snow, and perhaps far southern Vermont sees a mix with snow in the middle. Whatever happens, this doesn't look like it will be a blockbuster storm. 

But don't hang onto that gift to the ski gods scenario.  We should have a more clear view on this tomorrow. Or at least we'd better, as time is running out. 

After Wednesday, the weather pattern looks really active, so there will be several other chances for snow or a mix between now and early March.  I'm not even going to try and tease those out yet. 

Vermont's Iffy Shot At A White Christmas Tonight, Then A Cold Blast

If you don't have snow on the ground now, a storm
later today and tonight gives you the best chance of
a white Christmas. Though it's still iffy in the
Champlain Valley and lowlands of southern 
parts of the state. 

There's still some snow on the ground in much of eastern Vermont and in the high elevations, but lower spots in western and central Vermont are seeing bare ground just a week before Christmas.  

Since so many people are invested in having a traditional White Christmas, will it actually happen?

That's a big maybe.  Depends what happens later today and tonight. 

A modest storm is coming through, passing just to our south tonight. That path would normally put Vermont in the sweet spot for some snow, and for sure, most of us should get some. 

This time, though, there's not a lot of cold air to work with, so things could go either way. 

The storm is coming in a little faster than first thought, which means it'll start this afternoon. When it's warmer.  The higher elevations are fine. It'll snow, and just that'll just add to whatever's on the ground there. 

The valleys, though, will start off as rain.  Plus, it doesn't look like it will cool off all that rapidly as we head into tonight.  Which leaves valley dwellers in communities like Burlington, Middlebury, Rutland, Bennington and Brattleboro are in a race against time.

Will it get cold enough later tonight for it to snow before the moisture from this storm gets whisked away, ending the precipitation?

Said precipitation could come down  hard for a time in south central Vermont. Heavier precipitation tends to cool the atmosphere a little, so those areas stand a better chance of seeing some snow.  No guarantees for those of you on valley floors in Rutland, Castleton, Fair Haven and Clarendon, though.  But you all have a shot of at a couple inches of snow at least. 

The southern and central Champlain Valley seems problematic to me. The National Weather Service hour-by-hour temperature graphic has Burlington's temperature only falling to 34 degrees or so by 3 a.m.  By then, most of the small storm will be leaving the state, so areas close to the lake might get screwed out of snow. 

I think the northern Champlain Valley up by Georgia, St. Albans, Swanton, those sort of place will manage to squeeze out an inch or two of snow. Not sure about the Champlain Islands, though. 

All this said, the National Weather Service forecast - and anybody else's forecast for that matter - has a high bust potential.  If it gets a little colder than forecast, everybody gets at least a couple inches of snow, and more likely a few inches. If it stays a little warmer, more people get rain. 

For now, it looks like most places will clock in with two or three inches of snow, with greater amounts the higher up you go.  Places near Lake Champlain, and the lowest elevations of southwest and southeast Vermont maybe only an inch. Or possibly less. 

Do plan on some tricky driving conditions tonight. The higher you go in elevation, the worse it will get. 

MUCH COLDER

Once temperatures get below freezing later tomorrow morning or afternoon, it will stay below that magical 32 degree reading until Christmas Day afternoon at the earliest. So any snow that does fall will stick. Plus, there's a chance of a little more snow Friday and Saturday, but there would be no more than a dusting in the valleys. The ski areas could pick up a couple additional inches of fluff, though.

Be prepared to shiver Saturday through Monday, as the toughest cold snap of the year so far is still in the cards.  It won't be anything close to record-breaking, but it will feel shockingly chilly given the warmth we've had all year. 

Banana belt towns will see highs in the teens to around 20 and lows close to 0 during this episode. Most of the rest of Vermont gets below zero Saturday and Sunday nights. 

A major and possibly fairly long lasting warm up does look like it wants to start either Christmas afternoon or the day after. That relative balminess could last to the New Year, depending on whether iffy long range forecasts hold.  

Lyndon Area Might See More Historic Changes Due To Floods: Does A Historic Covered Bridge Need To Be Removed

The Sanborn covered bridge in Lyndon. You can see how
it was pinching the flow of the Passumpsic River
beneath it. The bridge has since been removed from its
position for restoration. Due to increased flooding the
bridge might cause in the future, it's been recommended
the bridge not be placed back over the river 
after restoration is complete. 

 One of the many problem with big climate-related disasters is we know they can easily happen again.

Part of the dread is such disasters mean we face more big adjustments.  

You're going to have to change your life, your community, and what is familiar. It might be little things, it could be biggies. 

There's going to be hard decisions, and there's no straight answers on which solution is the right one. 

Which leads us to the Sanborn covered bridge in Lyndon.

It's one of several such historic spans in and around Lyndon and Lyndonville, up in the Northeast Kingdom. 

Before the flooding this summer and last, the Sanborn covered bridge was already slated for a temporary removal and a restoration. it would be moved off to the side, totally renovated and restored, then put back on its perch over the Passumpsic River in Lyndon.  

A community park would be constructed adjacent to it.

The work has already started, and the bridge is off to the side of the river, with work starting on it. But will it eventually go back to its spot spanning the river? Suddenly, we don't know. 

Lyndon, reeling from two catastrophic floods this summer, is looking for ways to mitigate future disasters. It turns out one problem is the Sanborn covered bridge. Or at least its location spanning the Passumpsic River.  

The bridge and its abutments constricts the river, helping back it up into a nearby mobile home park.

Removing the bridge would help. As VTDigger reports:

"At the manufactured home park just upstream, the bridge removal would reduce floodwaters by 0.3 feed during a 10-year flood and 0.6 feet during a 500-year flood, projections show."

A half a foot might not sound like much, but that could be the difference between water entering a home or just passing almost harmlessly beneath it. Or it could be the difference between minor damage and the loss of most of a resident's belongings. 

 The mobile home park has been partially or fully evacuated numerous times in the past few decades. Homes there were badly damaged in this July's flooding. 

I think it would actually be better to move the manufactured home neighborhood out of harm's way, since more flooding is inevitable. Especially in this age of climate change. But where would all these people go?  Who would pay for the move? Certainly not the residents, most of whom are probably living paycheck, to paycheck in the best of times. 

VTDigger describes how this is all painful, controversial and uncertain:

"Figuring out a path forward on the covered bridge project will be a challenging and important endeavor," Selectboard Chair Chris Thompson said during the board's Aug. 5 meeting.

'We need to try to get a win-win out of this,' he said."

The covered bridge won't go away.  The town will restore and keep it one way or another. But whether it spans the river like it was designed to do is now an uncertain. It will likely be one more departure from the familiar, from the way it's always been.  

For those who might ask what the big deal is about an old bridge, these covered bridges are a centerpiece of the state's history, and are absolutely treasured across the Green Mountain State.

We're gradually losing them to floods and other disasters, so we want to preserve them as much as possible.   Tropical Storm Irene back in 2011 destroyed the 1870 Bartonsville Covered Bridge in southeastern Vermont, local residents cobbled together federal aid, insurance payouts and lots of local donations to restore it. 

That restored Bartonsville bridge is now handling traffic again, just like it always did. 

Back in Lyndon, the hope is there will be a similar happy ending. Maybe things will be different, but still beautiful and historic. 

The Sanborn covered bridge dilemma is just one example of how Vermont towns and villages - and communities all over the world - have to make difficult decisions and see sometimes painful changes in the the fabric of these communities. 

A covered bridge isn't the only issue facing the region. 

Already in Lyndon and Lyndonville, the iconic Miss Lyndonville Diner shut down in the wake of July flooding. A new owner might buy it and revive it, but we don't know that as fact yet. Village Sports, also in Lyndonville announced earlier this summer it would need to stop a ski and snowboard program for area youths because its stock of snowboards was destroyed in this summer's floods. 

There's a long list of other important for Lyndon and Lyndonville to consider after the floods. How best to repair roads and bridges?  To what extent will federal money help? 

Should the town and homeowners take advantage of a buyout program, in which owners of flood-vulnerable homes sell them, and they they are demolished and turned into open land so that nobody else has to live through a flood on that site. How badly will such buyouts wreck the tax base?

These are questions being asked in towns all across Vermont. The answers will be slow in coming, I'm sure. I also bet there will be some wrong answers, not intentionally wrong, but just what you get when  you make educated guesses. 

Every time it starts to rain, it seems the main question that runs through everybody's mind is, "What fresh hell will this bring?" Almost always, the answer is none. We know that the vast majority of rain storms are harmless.

 But the PTSD of epic storms in the recent past mean you never know when it'll hit again, and what painful questions the next one will bring. 

 

Refreshing Air Arrives In Vermont, But Frustrating Flood Potential Forecast For End Of Week

Forecast rainfall for the next seven days. Anything orange
is three inches or more. Darker shades near NYC indicate
at least five inches. Yellow in the Carolinas is over
ten inches. This forecast is big time subject to
change, especially in the Northeast. 

 As expected, it's much cooler and drier out there this morning, a state of affairs that will last most of the week.  

Clouds are forecast to gradually clear today after yesterday's rain. That rain was torrential in spots, nearly non-existent in others. 

Burlington received just 0.02 inches of rain. Meanwhile, a stripe of Addison County was under a flood warning for a time last evening as a patch of torrents passed through.

 Luckily, I've so far seen no reports of any serious damage in that neck of the woods. 

Now that we're done with the storms and oppressive weather,  there is pretty much no sign of any return to high temperatures combined with high humidity for the foreseeable future, so all good, right?

Unfortunately, no. Or at least maybe not. As I've mentioned a couple times already in previous posts, there's big time flood potential later in the week up and down the Eastern Seaboard. 

We don't know yet whether that includes flood-weary Vermont. 

DEBBY DANGER

Tropical Storm Debby so far is pretty much following forecasts, meandering around the Southeast, dumping incredible amounts of rain that is and will cause historic flooding in swaths of Georgia and the Carolinas. 

It's about to limp its way from Georgia and park itself just offshore. Since the center will be a little off the coast, Debby will have a chance to re-strengthen for awhile. All that time, it will be slamming huge amounts of rain into Georgia and South Carolina. 

It'll take until about late Friday or Saturday for Debby or its remnants to become "unstuck" and head on off to the northeast at a decent pace. 

During this time, we'll have that cool high pressure near us, keeping us partly to mostly sunny through Thursday, though clouds might be thicker south. 

Meanwhile another storm will be coming in from the west. We know the combination of that system from the west and Debby will cause a dangerous flood situation up and down the East Coast.  What we don't know is exactly where that will happen. The question marks are biggest in New England. 

This is a situation for a classic set up know as a Predecessor Rain Event or PRE.  Often, ahead of a tropical system, an area of torrential rain will develop well to the north and west of the tropical storm. It often but not always forms in an area that will eventually get hit by the actual tropical storm or hurricane.

A PRE can develop as much as 600 miles north or west of a tropical storm, and they're really hard to forecast. That's why meteorologists are still hemming and hawing about where flooding rains will strike at the end of the week. 

VERMONT QUESTIONS

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington points out in its forecast discussion this morning, computer  models are still all over the place when it comes to where the heavy rain sets up in New England toward Friday and Saturday.

The models are sort of leaning toward the heaviest rain focusing on southern Vermont, but there is absolutely no unanimity among the computer models, and various runs of those models. 

 Some of them have a  best case scenario (for us, anyway) of having almost no rain over central and northern Vermont and bringing the bad stuff to southern New England.  

Other models have a worst case scenario of dumping inches of torrential rains smack dab over the middle of the Green Mountain State.  

Other computer models have something in between those two extremes.   

Obviously, we want to avoid the worse case scenario, especially after the kind of summer we've had so far. Some Vermont communities have had serious flooding five times in the past year.  We've had more than our fill. 

To get forecast clarity, we'll have to wait until we see how Debby's path evolves, and how Debby and its moisture interact with that storm system coming in from the west. 

Hopefully, we'll start to get a clear picture by Thursday, so that we have a little time to prepare for flooding, if that's the direction we're headed. We just don't know. 

Some Surprise Vermont Snows, With More On The Way

 

Snow fell all day Monday in St. Albans, Vermont but
didn't accumulate because of a high March sun angle,
and temperatures just above freezing. However.....

UPDATE

Noon Tuesday

Snowfall reports came in since I wrote this early this morning.  Snow was definitely more widespread and heavier than many expected. 

I added to this post the map the National Weather Service in South Burlington released showing snowfall totals. You can see it further down in this.

Several places along the western slopes of the central and northern Green Mountains had around six inches of snow. 

Even areas a little bit away from the mountains had three or four inches. 

The biggest winner was Underhill, with 7.6 inches. Areas right near Lake Champlain, the Connecticut Valley and parts of the Northeast Kingdom missed out. The NWS office in South Burlington only had 0.6 inches, for instance. 

Melt the snow down and you get a tenth of an inch or less of rain equivalent away from the mountains and western slopes. Areas near the Green Mountain had a respectable third to more than a half inch oc rain equivalent. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

A few areas of Vermont awoke to some surprising amounts of snow this  morning. 

Up here in St. Albans, I measured 3.5 inches of new snow. This is on cold surfaces.  The lawn has somewhat less snow due to warm ground melting this from beneath. 

We saw a real March phenomenon, too, as a high sun angle and just a general trend toward spring warming influenced how much snow actually accumulated.

It snowed all day Monday here in St. Albans, and along and west of the Green Mountains.  In relatively low elevations like where I live, there was no accumulation during the day despite hours of steady snowfall. It was basically white rain coming down. 

Even though it was overcast, some heat from the sun penetrated the clouds. That also helped temperatures hold just above freezing. Had it been January with the same snowfall, I

However, at night, the snow kept going and was able to
accumulate, leaving behind 3.5 inches in St. Albans,
at least in the eastern part of town away from Lake Champlain.

Toward dusk, the snow started to accumulate, and really started to pile up after dark. That lead to our more than three inches of snow.  I'm sure a few places in the northern and central Green Mountains had six inches or more.  

I notice the snow depth atop Mount Mansfield went from 62 inches Sunday to 68 inches by 5 p.m. Monday. And it surely snowed some more overnight way up there on Vermont's rooftop. 

I'm sure, though, that if this snow had come in January, I'd be shoveling at least six inches of new snow out of my St. Albans driveway.    

MUCH MORE SNOW COMING?

In the lower elevations, that March regime will melt at least some of the snow today in areas where it did accumulate, despite temperatures that will probably hold in the 30s. Today might be the first cooler than average day this month. The rest of the week looks to be mostly on the chilly side for this time of year too.

The last of the snow showers from overnight should depart, but more is coming. 

Map of snowfall from Monday and last night in Vermont
Widespread three to six inches across northern parts
of the state, which was more than forecast. 

The next system from the west will blow in tonight and tomorrow, spreading snow, and perhaps some cold raindrops mixed in at lower elevations Wednesday. 

This is another case of the mountains getting snow showered to death. It'll be another case of maybe an inch or two of new snow in most valleys, with some low lands getting nothing. 

But this little storm Wednesday and Wednesday night could easily dump another six inches of snow on Vermont's mountain summits and some ski areas.

Thursday will be by far the coldest day since February 29, with highs staying below freezing all day, except maybe in the warmest valleys of southern Vermont. 

This cold snap could set us up for a pretty good snowstorm toward Saturday.  

Maybe. Perhaps. Maybe not. Hard to tell.

Here's why:

Some computer models are generating a pretty good nor'easter whose path would put Vermont in the sweet spot for quite a lot of snow on Saturday. 

We'd get six or more inches of wet snow out of that scenario.

However, those computer models are having a feisty fight among themselves as to what's really going to happen. While some of those models give us a snowstorm, others say this will be one big nothing burger.

That  camp says it will be a weak storm that goes by too far to the east of Vermont to give us any real trouble. Others in this computer model fight club say it will be a fairly substantial storm, but it would also be too far east of Vermont to worry that much about. Then there's a small group that says it will be mostly a cold rain, not snow. A few models even say "Storm? What storm?"

For now, we'll just let those meteorological computer battles rage until they come up with some kind of truce or peace agreement in a couple of days. 

Florida High School Gets Things SO Wrong During Tornado Threat Students Seriously Endangered

This photo posted to social media last week appears to
show students evacuated to a large free standing room
in a Florida school during a tornado warning. This type
of room is the most dangerous if a tornado hit. The students 
should have been in smaller, windowless interior rooms.

Did a Florida school put a bunch of students in danger last week during a tornado warning?

Judging from some posts on social media, they might have. 

 I do have to a disclaimer, because, Duh! not everything you read in social media is true.  

Not all the facts are in, and I haven't yet seen a response from the school in question. And I don't have it all confirmed through a reliable new source.  But the person who posted the info at least seems at least somewhat credible. 

Given what I saw on X, formerly Twitter the other day, if true, this school put students in the worst possible,  most dangerous place in the school during the tornado warning. And they should have known better. 

Twisters swept through parts of Florida lastWednesday night and Thursday, causing damage from Clearwater on the state's west coast to north of Daytona Beach on the east coast.

The National Weather Service issued numerous tornado warnings, including one for a location north of Tampa.  One student at a high school that was under the tornado warning, showed students evacuated to what appears to be a gymnasium or large common room, facing the walls as a "safety" evacuation.

The student, a weather enthusiast who goes by JakeWx said he knows - like most people in tornado prone areas - that a gymnasium or similar big, open room is the worst place in a school to shelter in a tornado. 

In its tornado safety outline for schools, NOAA has this to say:

DANGER - GYMS and AUDITORIUMS: Large, open-span areas, such as gymnasiums, auditoriums and most lunchrooms can be very dangerous even in weak tornadoes, and should not be used for sheltering people. This sort of room has inherent structural weaknesses and lack of roof support, making them especially prone to collapse with weaker wind loading that more compact areas of the same school building."

NOAA says there's no one size fits all tornado safety protocol for schools, but students in general should be rushed to ground floor or basement rooms away from windows and exterior walls. Interior rest rooms are often good places to shelter. That's what JakeWx thought when his school was under a tornado warning.

"When I tried to go to a bathroom and bring other people with me, they threatened to give me a referral. Not safe at all to be in that spot, if that tornado hit us directly, we would all be dead and it would be the school's fault," JakeWx wrote on X.

Hmm. Getting detention for doing a smart thing. How Florida! 

Snark aside, if indeed this school directed kids into that big room during a tornado warning, I hope this school revisits its severe weather protocol. True, I don't know the structural integrity of the room they were in. Many Florida schools act as hurricane shelters, so the room might have been reinforced. But I still strongly doubt it was the safest place in the school. 

JackWx didn't specify which school he was in. Only that it was north of Tampa. 

El Nino is going to be going strong this winter.  That tends to increase the odds of strong storm systems in the South that can spin off tornado outbreaks. 

Severe weather safety in homes, workplaces and schools has thankfully been getting more attention. Sometimes it takes a tragedy to force this.

In December, 2021, a tornado outbreak caused widespread destruction and deaths. Those deaths included workers at a candle factory in Mayfield, Kentucky that was leveled by a tornado. Also, six people died when a tornado struck an Amazon warehouse in Illinois.

In both instances, questions were raised about worker tornado safety.  Should Mayfield employees been allowed to leave the plant for safer shelter elsewhere in town?  And did Amazon allow workers there to flee to reinforced rooms inside the sprawling warehouse to make themselves safer?

Let's just say lawsuits are ongoing in the Mayfield incident and in the Illinois Amazon deaths. 

Many schools in tornado and storm prone areas have excellent safety plans for severe weather. But not all of them. In the Florida case last week, the tornado either missed the school or lifted before it got there. No damage or injuries were reported at the school.

However, perhaps schools nationwide should review their plans to make sure they are safer than what appeared to happen last week in Florida. Either that, 

 

Thursday Evening Update: Central Vermont Still Looking Like Snow Sweet Spot

Latest snow forecast from the National Weather Service office
in South Burlington, Vermont. Central and southern Vermont
should see a solid 6 to 14 inches. Far northern Vermont
should see less, but there's a big bust potential for
the forecast near the Canadian border. 

Some of the early indications we saw this morning that central Vermont might be in the best position to receive a decent dump of snow Friday night and Saturday seem to be getting more likely. 

All of Vermont will be seeing snow with this system, but the narrow sweet spot seems to be setting up very roughly along and south of Route 2.  That said, surprises are definitely possible. But before we get into that......

THIS EVENING

Before we get into the main show, the dreary, sprinkly, wet snow flurry type of day most of Vermont has had this Thursday is a little worse along the spine of the Green Mountains in northern Vermont. 

Although most roads across Vermont are pretty good, high elevation roads in northern Vermont are snow covered and slippery. Roads like Route 108 in Stowe and Route 17 in Buels Gore looked awful late this afternoon.

Temperatures have been falling late this afternoon, so some roads that were just wet are now icy, with an even more slippery layer of snow on top. This is true even though most places in the high elevations should have a total snowfall today and this evening of two inches or less.

Lower elevation roads might have some slick spots as temperatures were starting to dip below freezing in northern and central Vermont valleys. I noticed as of 5 p.m., light snow had redeveloped at my place in St. Albans, and it was just starting to stick to the roads a little bit. 

So be careful out there.

But on to the big news. 

Before we get to the main event, some northern and
higher terrain of the Vermont is seeing some 
snow and slick roads this evening. This is a Vermont
Agency of Transportation webcam grab from
Route 108 in Stowe late this afternoon. 

THE MAIN EVENT

Frankly, I don't see that the computer models have yet come to a complete agreement as to what will happen with the upcoming storm.  But the hints we saw this morning are coming into better focus. 

Accumulations 

Things are leaning toward a focus on central and southern Vermont, where 6 to 14 inches of snow out of this storm look like a pretty good bet. As usual with this type of winter storm, the best accumulations will probably be along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains, especially from about Killington south. 

A mix with sleet and freezing rain is still possible in far southern Vermont, but that scenario is beginning to look a little less likely.

A winter storm warning is now in effect from late evening Friday to late Saturday afternoon for all of Vermont except a good chunk of the the Northeast Kingdom and a narrow strip of northern Vermont within about 25 miles of the Canadian border. 

The wild card is still focused on areas near the Canadian border of Vermont/Quebec. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington  is looking like it's playing it safe between conflicting computer models. A winter weather advisory is up for the northern border areas for about 4 to 6 inches of expected snow. 

Far northern Vermont, though, is where the big forecast bust potential lies. I saw at least one of the American computer models today that sharply cut off snowfall near the Canadian border. For snow lovers, worse case scenario would be only one to two inches in that neck of the woods 

Other models bring a big thump of snow all the way into far southern Quebec. Some of the European models and something called the North American Mesoscale Forecast System were bullish on heavy snow reaching to and past the Canadian border. If that happens, the northern border could easily see eight to ten inches of snow. 

I'm not hanging my hat on either scenario.  I guess we shall see.

Timing, Consistency, Impacts

The storm seems to be running a little slower than first thought. Latest forecasts have the snow starting between 10 p.m. and midnight Friday in the southwestern half of the state and a little after midnight north and east.  For most of us, the worst of it should be over by early Saturday evening.

If I had to pick a worst time to be out on Vermont roads on Saturday, I'd say it would be from a little before dawn to about noon. 

I imagine there could be a few scattered power outages, but at this point I don't think these will be too widespread. Gusty winds early Saturday, especially along the west slopes of the Green Mountains, could cause some issues 

Temperatures on Saturday should reach the low 30s, which would give the snow a bit of a heavy, wet consistency, which could also cause some issues. 

Beyond The Storm

To be honest, it looks like we're in for a period of boring weather for as long as the ten days starting Sunday. What is known as a blocking weather pattern will shunt any real storms away from us.

Large storminess off the southeastern coast of Canada and equally large high pressure in central Canada will keep a chilly, but not frigid flow of air from the north going over us during that time. The pattern will shunt any major storms well to our south. 

For us, the period from Sunday to at least the following weekend will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies, an annoying but not strong north wind, temperatures near or slightly below normal for this time of  year, and scattered snow showers and batches of light snow going. 

March can feature dramatic weather, but these dull, stalled stretches of weather are fairly common this time of year, too. 

I imagine there will be some changes to the forecast as we head through Friday so of course expect updates from me here. 

Coast To Coast Storm Still Causing Havoc; How It Plays Out In Vermont Still Iffy

Will it look like this in Vermont Friday
and Saturday or will it look tamer?
Still a lot of questions on the 
potential nor'easter

UPDATE 5 PM TUESDAY

Just a few updates for the upcoming storm, with a more comprehensive update coming Wednesday morning.

The National Weather Service office in Albany, New York has issued a winter storm watch for the two southernmost counties of Vermont and parts of the southern Adirondacks from Thursday night through Saturday morning.

The watch says that around 7 inches of snow is possible (but not definite!) during that time. 

Further north, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has not issued any watches or advisories for the possible upcoming storm.

That's a wise decision, in my opinion.  It does look more likely that far southern Vermont could see some fairly heavy snow out of this. The uncertainty is much greater further north, so the NWS in South Burlington decided to wait and look at further forecast updates and data.

We still don't know how far the initial thump of snow will make it to the north on Friday morning, if it develops at all. Temperatures are marginal, too.   

Computer models late this afternoon were still disagreeing if the main nor'easter would veer too far of the coast to give us a good thump of snow, or whether it would come closer, giving us at least a shot of a decent accumulation.

Whatever snow falls looks like it will be fairly wet and heavy, so power outages could be a problem if it snows hard anywhere. We'll have to keep an eye on that. 

Any snow that does fall has a good chance of sticking around to give us a white Christmas. All the long range forecast suggest colder than normal weather between now and after Christmas. 

Meanwhile, rough weather is ongoing late this afternoon in eastern Texas and Louisiana. Several tornadoes have already touched down, doing damage in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and temporarily shutting down the Dallas-Fort Worth airport. 

If anything, the tornadic storms seem to be intensifying somewhat as of 5 p.m. as they get ready to exit eastern Texas and enter Louisiana. So far, there's been reports of five injuries. Again, more on this tomorrow.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 

Amid all the anticipation of a possible winter storm here in New England coming this Friday, the parent system that could trigger that potential storm is today causing lots of issues and dangers in the middle of the nation.  

I'll get into the latest thinking for Vermont in a bit, but it is worth noting how menacing the weather is in parts of the South and the Midwest.

As of early this morning, a line of supercell thunderstorms was approaching the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area. Some of these storms carried tornado warnings, and at least one tornado was confirmed, based on radar images of debris being lifted in the air not far from Weatherford, Texas.

A tornado already caused damage in Wayne, Oklahoma last night. The tornado threat will only increase during the day as the system moves into eastern Texas and Louisiana. 

Further north, parts of eastern South Dakota, southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa are dealing with a gusty, nasty ice storm this morning. Roads are closed and people are worried about power outages.

Meanwhile, a big area comprising western and central South Dakota, western Nebraska and parts of eastern Wyoming are in the throes of a blizzard today. 

I'm describing all this bad weather far off to our west to illustrate that the energy headed our way has the potential to spin up a pretty good storm for us. Of course the question remains: Will it actually happen?

And if anything happens, exactly what?

The answers aren't much clearer on this than they were yesterday, but we're trying. 

Everyone's pretty sure a new storm will spin off from the parent one over the Midwest. The new storm will gather strength over the Mid-Atlantic States Thursday night and head toward the northeast.

Will it hug the coast or go further offshore once it's near New England?  There's still a fair amount of disagreement on that.

As the National Weather Service office in South Burlington describes it, the American computer models take the bulk of the storm offshore. That would cheat us out of the heavier precipitation, and we'd get a fairly long period of light snow. There's be accumulation, but it wouldn't be anything huge.

The European and other models take the storm right along the coast in New England. That would put Vermont in a sweeter spot for a decent thump of snow. The storm would be moving right along, so the heavier stuff wouldn't last long, but at least we'd get several hours of dumping, followed by a day or two of light snow and flurries, which would be icing on the cake, so to speak. 

Another question, still not resolved from yesterday, is how much warm air sneaks in? If the storm comes right up the coast, the initial thump of precipitation would probably be snow. That would come along Friday morning. But it's possible things could go over to light rain during the day Friday, especially in the valleys. 

Afterwards, for Friday night and Saturday, any rain or mix would go back to snow. It's hard to say how much snow would hit Friday night and Saturday. Could be little or nothing, could be a few inches. Stay tuned. 

For planning purposes, I'd start thinking about a potential iffy commute Friday morning. And I'd expect some inclement weather from Friday afternoon into Sunday. 

In the meantime,  you'll see meteorologists make some changes to the scenarios I just described. More data will come in, and that will help meteorologists refine forecasts over the next couple of days. 

These kinds of storms always bring some sort of surprise. Expect the unexpected with this one. 

Before we even get there, we have to deal with a couple minor issues. 

For one, it's cold out this morning. Nothing extreme for December, but almost all of us were in the single digits as dawn broke. A fewer colder hollows hit or got a little below zero. It was the coldest morning so far this winter, but of course even colder weather will come later this winter. 

A strong storm off the coast of Nova Scotia will throw a weather disturbance back toward New England tonight. Northern Vermont stands to receive some scattered but pretty good snow showers during the first half of tonight. Some places could pick up an inch or two.

A cold gusty day follows tomorrow, followed by a warmer, calmer Thursday before the iffy nor'easter arrives Friday. 

Will Vermont's Anti-Rain Force Field Briefly Weaken With Rain/Snow Friday?

Will a nor'easter forecast on Friday
give any drought relief at all to
northern Vermont? And did someone
say snow?  Questions abound, for now.

My rant yesterday about how storms are all veering around bone-dry Vermont might have gotten the attention of the weather gods. A little bit, anyway. And just maybe. 

A storm due Thursday night and Friday could give southern Vermont, anyway, a good dousing - at a cost. 

Some of that precipitation could come down as snow.  It's also still questionable how much precipitation, if any, the especially dry northern half of Vermont might get out of this. 

A pretty good nor'easter is still widely forecast to develop somewhere near New England Thursday night and Friday, but as always, the devil is in the details. 

The question we started asking remains: How far north will this storm get before it's diverted off to the east by blocking high pressure in Canada.  

It's clear already that northern Vermont won't get as much rain and snow as the southern half of the state. But will the north get anything at all?  Still a question, but we'll take anything at this point. I'm still skeptical, if only because we always seem to get cheated out of rain chances lately. 

That's not a particularly scientific viewpoint, but still. Sue me. 

Southern Vermont looks like they could get an inch of rain and melted snow. There, I said it. The four letter "S" word. The southern Green Mountains have the potential, actually, for a lot of snow.

It's true that it's been quite warm and will continue to be that way today and tomorrow. Nor'easters, though, are pretty adept at manufacturing their own pocket of cold air and this one looks able to do that. 

At this early stage of the forecast, signs point to snow levels falling to below 1,500 feet.  That sets the stage for the potential of six inches or more of snow in the high elevations of southern Vermont, and maybe some accumulation in the valleys.  Don't break out the snow shovels yet, this is just a preliminary look, but things are starting to look wintry with this forecast. 

A snowfall of this magnitude is definitely unusual for this time of year, but not unheard of. It has happened before. 

It's still only Tuesday and the storm isn't due until Thursday night or Friday. That means we're sure to see major adjustments in this tricky storm forecast over the next day or two, so stay tuned! 

The potential Friday storm means all of us Vermonters will probably have a bit of an interruption to this oddly warm weather pattern on Friday.  Highs then will only be in the 40s. That'll come as a shock after all these days in the 60s and 70s, but such relatively chilly daytime temperatures are pretty common for mid-April.

We'll bounce right back into the warm and dry weather over the upcoming weekend, but we don't know how long that will last. Signals seem all over the place in the long term forecasts for the second half of the month. Some forecasts keep us a fair amount cooler than normal, which would put the brakes on this spring, which is racing far ahead of schedule.

Other forecasts keep us on the warm side.  As usual, we'll just get through this week and then see what happens.