Thursday Evening Update: Central Vermont Still Looking Like Snow Sweet Spot

Latest snow forecast from the National Weather Service office
in South Burlington, Vermont. Central and southern Vermont
should see a solid 6 to 14 inches. Far northern Vermont
should see less, but there's a big bust potential for
the forecast near the Canadian border. 

Some of the early indications we saw this morning that central Vermont might be in the best position to receive a decent dump of snow Friday night and Saturday seem to be getting more likely. 

All of Vermont will be seeing snow with this system, but the narrow sweet spot seems to be setting up very roughly along and south of Route 2.  That said, surprises are definitely possible. But before we get into that......

THIS EVENING

Before we get into the main show, the dreary, sprinkly, wet snow flurry type of day most of Vermont has had this Thursday is a little worse along the spine of the Green Mountains in northern Vermont. 

Although most roads across Vermont are pretty good, high elevation roads in northern Vermont are snow covered and slippery. Roads like Route 108 in Stowe and Route 17 in Buels Gore looked awful late this afternoon.

Temperatures have been falling late this afternoon, so some roads that were just wet are now icy, with an even more slippery layer of snow on top. This is true even though most places in the high elevations should have a total snowfall today and this evening of two inches or less.

Lower elevation roads might have some slick spots as temperatures were starting to dip below freezing in northern and central Vermont valleys. I noticed as of 5 p.m., light snow had redeveloped at my place in St. Albans, and it was just starting to stick to the roads a little bit. 

So be careful out there.

But on to the big news. 

Before we get to the main event, some northern and
higher terrain of the Vermont is seeing some 
snow and slick roads this evening. This is a Vermont
Agency of Transportation webcam grab from
Route 108 in Stowe late this afternoon. 

THE MAIN EVENT

Frankly, I don't see that the computer models have yet come to a complete agreement as to what will happen with the upcoming storm.  But the hints we saw this morning are coming into better focus. 

Accumulations 

Things are leaning toward a focus on central and southern Vermont, where 6 to 14 inches of snow out of this storm look like a pretty good bet. As usual with this type of winter storm, the best accumulations will probably be along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains, especially from about Killington south. 

A mix with sleet and freezing rain is still possible in far southern Vermont, but that scenario is beginning to look a little less likely.

A winter storm warning is now in effect from late evening Friday to late Saturday afternoon for all of Vermont except a good chunk of the the Northeast Kingdom and a narrow strip of northern Vermont within about 25 miles of the Canadian border. 

The wild card is still focused on areas near the Canadian border of Vermont/Quebec. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington  is looking like it's playing it safe between conflicting computer models. A winter weather advisory is up for the northern border areas for about 4 to 6 inches of expected snow. 

Far northern Vermont, though, is where the big forecast bust potential lies. I saw at least one of the American computer models today that sharply cut off snowfall near the Canadian border. For snow lovers, worse case scenario would be only one to two inches in that neck of the woods 

Other models bring a big thump of snow all the way into far southern Quebec. Some of the European models and something called the North American Mesoscale Forecast System were bullish on heavy snow reaching to and past the Canadian border. If that happens, the northern border could easily see eight to ten inches of snow. 

I'm not hanging my hat on either scenario.  I guess we shall see.

Timing, Consistency, Impacts

The storm seems to be running a little slower than first thought. Latest forecasts have the snow starting between 10 p.m. and midnight Friday in the southwestern half of the state and a little after midnight north and east.  For most of us, the worst of it should be over by early Saturday evening.

If I had to pick a worst time to be out on Vermont roads on Saturday, I'd say it would be from a little before dawn to about noon. 

I imagine there could be a few scattered power outages, but at this point I don't think these will be too widespread. Gusty winds early Saturday, especially along the west slopes of the Green Mountains, could cause some issues 

Temperatures on Saturday should reach the low 30s, which would give the snow a bit of a heavy, wet consistency, which could also cause some issues. 

Beyond The Storm

To be honest, it looks like we're in for a period of boring weather for as long as the ten days starting Sunday. What is known as a blocking weather pattern will shunt any real storms away from us.

Large storminess off the southeastern coast of Canada and equally large high pressure in central Canada will keep a chilly, but not frigid flow of air from the north going over us during that time. The pattern will shunt any major storms well to our south. 

For us, the period from Sunday to at least the following weekend will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies, an annoying but not strong north wind, temperatures near or slightly below normal for this time of  year, and scattered snow showers and batches of light snow going. 

March can feature dramatic weather, but these dull, stalled stretches of weather are fairly common this time of year, too. 

I imagine there will be some changes to the forecast as we head through Friday so of course expect updates from me here.