Vermont February Warm; Winter Was Among Warmest

Early winter was so warm that daffodil shoots were 
starting to come up in St. Albans, Vermont on Jan. 5

 The latest climate numbers are in for Vermont and - no surprise! We had a warm February, and winter overall was among the hottest on record.   

First we'll get into the overall winter figures, as they'r impressive, then we delve into February. 

THE WINTER

Meteorological winter, which is how climatologists keep track of seasonal trends, runs from December 1 through February 28. Or February 29 in leap years. 

In Burlington, this turned out to be the third warmest winter on record with a mean temperature of 29.0. The warmest winter was in 2015-16, withy a mean temperature of 30.1. 

With this year's data in, remarkably, now, all of Burlington's top 5 warmest winters have been since 2001-02.  Records go back to the 1880s. It's also alarming, given the trends pushed by climate change. 

In contrast, the last time we had a top 10 coldest winter was in 1993-94, which barely crept into a three way tie at #10. Before that,  the most recent winter to be in the top 10 coldest was 1970-71

It's not just us. It appears this winter will be the warmest on record for a good four dozen or more stations in the eastern United States. Hundreds of other cities and towns in the East had one of their top five warmest winters this year. 

The winter in Burlington was a little wetter than average with just over 6 inches of rain and melted snow. That's about an inch and quarter above normal. 

FEBRUARY

February certainly contributed toward creating one of our warmest winters, but it wasn't quite as off the charts warm as January. 

In Burlington, February's mean temperature worked out to 26.1 degrees, a solid 3.2 degrees warmer than average. 

A brief intense cold wave on Feb. 3-4 in an otherwise warm
winter created lots of funnels and steam
devils on Lake Champlain. 

Remember, average is a "new normal." 

"Normal" is now taking the average of the 30 years ending in 2020.  In previous decades "normal" monthly average temperatures were colder than they are now. 

February in Burlington was just outside the top 10 warmest on record, coming in around 11th or 12th. 

Other places in Vermont were similarly warm in February. Montpelier, with an average temperature or 25 degrees, was a good six degrees warmer than average. Bennington was about 5 degrees warmer than normal. St. Johnsbury and Rutland were each more than three degrees on the warm side. 

Temperatures certainly yo-yo'd in Vermont's February. The brief cold snap that brought temperatures in many parts of Vermont to around 20 below on the morning of February 4 was quickly replaced by above freezing temperatures the next day.

That was the start of a remarkable 18 consecutive days in Burlington that got above freezing. The heat peaked on February 15 and 16 with record highs of 57 and 56 degrees in Burlington. Down in Bennington, it got as warm as 62 degrees. Rutland, which had ten consecutive days at least in the 40s, was close behind Bennington with a peak of 61 degrees.

Vermont maple sugarers made some unusually large early season harvests in February. 

Even though the overall winter was a little on the west side, Vermont had a dry February. And February is  normally the year's driest month to begin with. Burlington was only about a quarter inch shy of its average of 1.77 inches of rain or melted snow and ice. Montpelier had only half its normal February allotment of precipitation. St. Johnbury and Bennington were more than a half inch short.

The lack of precipitation gives you a hint that snowfall was below normal, too. Burlington had 12.6 inches of snow, which was nearly 7 inches below normal. 

Almost all of that came in the final 11 days of the month. Through February 16, Burlington only had  0.4 inches of February snowfall through the first 16 days of the month. 

LOOKING AHEAD

It's usually nearly impossible to tell what the weather will be like in the next month. That's true with this March. But there are some stronger than usual signals about what conditions will be like through the month. 

On February 15, snow melt left a Vermont landscape 
looking like it does around April 1. The second half
of the month was snowier and a winter landscape returned.

And you won't like it if you were anxious to stick a fork in this lame winter and get on with spring. 

Indications are that most of the month will be on the cold side. That isn't to say there won't be any warm days thrown in. 

Still, it's possible, though definitely not a guarantee, that March might end up being colder than December, January or February were. 

The anticipated chilly March is partly a product of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming in the Arctic that hit in mid-February The SSW, as it's known, disrupts the polar vortex and can cause extended periods of cold weather in eastern North America a few weeks after it happens. 

It's possible we might warm up into real spring like weather toward the end of the month, but nobody has any idea whether that will happen or not. The end of March's weather is basically a coin toss.

March often comes in like a lion, as they say, and it's looking like that will at least sort of be the case this year. 

A bit of mixed precipitation is due tomorrow night and early Thursday, but I don't think it will amount to all that much.

Forecasters are still looking at a possible bigger storm Friday night and Saturday. We know a large storm will affect parts of the eastern U.S.. Meteorologists hoped to have a little more clarity by now on how this storm will affect Vermont. 

But the computer models are disagreeing on whether the heaviest snow will pass south of us, or bullseye at least parts of the state. It is looking more and more like this storm will produce all, more mostly all snow in the Green Mountain State. But even that's not a guarantee.