Geriatric Cyclone Freddy Sets A World Record For Longevity

 Cyclone Freddy, which I mentioned in a previous post on February 26 as it was damaging Madagascar, this week is about to break a world record for the longest lived tropical storm on record. 

As of Wednesday, it had survived 29 days, and will probably get to 32 days before finally falling apart. 

 Tropical systems, whether they are called hurricanes, cyclones or typhoons, stay alive over warm water. If these storms encounter land or cold water, they fall apart.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, Freddy developed way back on February 6 somewhere over the Indian Ocean between Indonesia and Australia.  It crossed the entire South Indian Ocean, moving westward until it finally made landfall on February 21 in east-central Madagascar.  It then crossed a straight between Madagascar and the east coast of Africa and made landfall in Mozambique on February 24.

At that point, you'd think the storm was done, dying over land in eastern Africa. 

But nope! Freddy did a U-turn and headed out back over the warm waters of the Mozambique Channel. Freddy kind of hung out over the channel, re-gaining strength before it clipped the southwestern coset of Madagascar again.

Then, it sort of meandered before finally heading back toward Mozambique, as of Wednesday, and is expected to hit that nation later this week further north than the first strike. At that point, we'll probably be finally able to say goodbye to Freddy.

Or not. Many forecasters do expect Freddy to plow into Mozambique and eventually die. But some computer models have it nearing or bouncing off the coast, the meander some more in the Mozambique channel.

Freddy might turn out to be quite a zombie storm if that's the case. It figures it was named after the main character in the "A Nightmare on Elm Street" horror movie franchise. 

The straight east-to-west path Freddy took across the Indian Ocean is quite rare, as was its "decision" to meander aimlessly between Madagascar and Mozambique. 

 Freddy has caused severe flooding in Madagascar, Mozambique and Zimbabwe.  At least 21 people have died, and 1,800 people are displaced. The death toll would have been higher, but warning systems in advance of cyclones have improved in the three nations in recent years. 

However, Freddy's next landfall might have quite a punch.  It has rapidly intensified, going from a strong tropical storm to a Category 2 storm with top winds of just under 100 mph as of Tuesday.  It was forecast to strengthen to a Category 3, which would bring its wind speeds to between 111 and 129 mph. 

Satellite view of Cyclone Freddy near southwestern
Madagascar Monday. This storm is likely to break
the record for the longest lived tropical cyclone on record,

The WMO is setting up a committee to study Cyclone Freddy and verify if it is indeed the longest lasting tropical storm on record. The current long life holder is Hurricane/Typhoon John in the Pacific Ocean back in 1994.

 One thing that might prevent Freddy from becoming the record holder is that it periodically weakened during its life, so was it a tropical cyclone during its entire life?

Likely it was, but that'll have to be studied. 

Freddy has had quite a history. Along with its longevity, it has occasionally been quite powerful, and waxed and waned in surprising ways. 

This is Freddy's third episode of rapid intensification, which is officially defined as a wind increase of at least 35 mph within 24 hours. This is the most times an Indian Ocean cyclone has rapidly blossomed. At one point over the open ocean Freddy was a Category 5 storm, the strongest you can get. 

One of the best way to measure and compare the impact, longevity and overall strength of tropical systems is to records its Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE. The index measures the total amount of wind energy with a tropical system over its lifetime. (I'm not going to do the math lesson on how they calculate ACE, as I don't want to give everybody a headache).

As of Tuesday, Freddy had piled top 74.5 ACE units. That's the second most of any tropical storm in the Southern Hemisphere since at least 1980. 

Hurricane Ioke in the Central Pacific back in 2006 is the current record holder for ACE with 85 units. There's a chance Freddy could beat that record, too,

The inevitable question is whether climate change has contributed to Cyclone Freddy's longevity. All I can say is maybe.  

Warmer ocean waters created by climate change help tropical storms strengthen, or at least maintain their strength. It's possible Freddy would not have lasted so long without the toasty ocean temperatures the world is seeing now.

I have no idea whether climate change had anything to do with its path over the past month.