Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Spring Showing Warming Trend Over The Years In Most Of U.S.

As this map from Climate Central shows, spring has warmed
across all of the continental U.S. except the northern
Plains since 1970,
I don't know how this spring will turn out, but like everything else associated with climate change, spring in the United States is different than it used to be. 

 Climatecentral.org tells us that on average spring is now 2 degrees warmer in the U.S. than it was in 1970.

The Southwest has warmed the most, with places in Nevada, Texas and Arizona having a warming of at least 6 degrees since 1970.

.Climate Central looked at 238 weather stations in the United States during meteorological spring, which is defined as the period between March 1 and May 31. 

All but six of those locations are warmer now during spring than they were in 1970, according to the data. 

An earlier and warmer spring has pluses and minuses. Since the last spring frost on average is coming earlier, growing seasons are being extended some.  Even that's a double-edged sword. Weather and climate have become much more variable than they once were - with extended warm periods punctuated with brief cold snaps that can damage crops that are blooming too early. 

We might see that this year. The Southeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic States have been experiencing record early spring blooms in February and so far this March.

Since everything from blueberries to peach blossoms and cherry blossoms are sprouting much earlier than normal. All it takes is one nasty frost to wipe all that out. I notice that below normal temperatures are in the forecast for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coming up in next week or two could endanger crops. 

Warmer and more abrupt springs are also causing early and more intense pollen attacks, a situation I'm sure people with allergies must absolutely adore. 

In the West, drought conditions have been exacerbated by earlier spring snow melt in the mountains. Water from the melting snow rushes off the mountains prematurely, leading to much less needed water from mountain streams and rivers later in the summer. 

Given the huge amounts of mountain snows in many Western mountain areas now, this year could be an exception.  There might be so much snow up there that melting would continue into the summer. 

Or, who knows? It could really turn hot in April, melting the snow in a flash - and resulting flash flooding - before returning the region to drought. 

For some reason, North Dakota and parts of South Dakota have actually cooled in the spring a bit since 1970.  I'm not sure why. It might have to do with increased snow cover early in the spring. Snow reflects sunlight, which makes things cooler than they otherwise would be.

trend toward no-till farming might be having a cooling effect in late spring in summer across the Plains. The cover crops increasingly in place add humidity to the air, which can cool temperatures somewhat. 

Judging from Climate Central's map, Vermont's spring is warming slightly more slowly than the national average, having risen by between 1 and 2 degrees since 1970.  Winter is Vermont's fastest warming season. 

For much of the nation, spring is getting off to a rare chilly start this year. Temperatures through about the third week of the month are expected to be below normal for a majority of the Lower 48.  Of course, that doesn't mean the whole spring will be chilly. I expect true to form, we'll have some very odd hot spells somewhere in the nation between now and Memorial Day. 

 

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