Saturday Evening Update: Tuesday Storm Forecast Trends South A Bit, Zero Guarantees It Will Work Out That Way

An early crack at forecasting the upcoming storm issued by the
National Weather Service office in South Burlington. Mostly
a central and southern Vermont storm, but we have a huge
bust potential. Especially in northern Vermont where there's
 a lot of forecast questions. Map only goes through 8 p.m.
Tuesday. Some more snow is expected after that. 

Winter storm watches are starting to go up for parts - but not all of Vermont - as we draw closer to that big early week storm that will hit........somebody.  

I'm still not finding a whole lot of consensus on what this thing is going to do.  There's a complicated dance of upper level features, storms, winds and such that are making predictions a pain the you-know-what.

If there was any trend in the forecast today, it was to push the storm further south and east than earlier forecasts. 

This pretty much keeps southern, and maybe central Vermont in the crosshairs of this storm, at least for now. It's still looking like that part of the state will be close enough to the storm to get pasted by some heavy, wet snow. Maybe a lot of it. 

Northern Vermont is even more of a wild card than it was this morning. 

Honestly, some areas along and Route 2 could get next to nothing, or they could get more than a foot. I don't think we'll know how northern Vermont will fare with this until just before the storm Monday, or even when we're into it Monday night and Tuesday. 

For now, the winter storm watches - areas that can probably expect at least six inches of snow - cover the southern four counties of Vermont, Orange and Washington counties, and the western slopes of the Green Mountains in Chittenden County. 

Remember, a winter storm watch means maybe. If it's upgraded to a winter storm warning, then you can be pretty confident you're going to get nailed. 

It still looks like most of the precipitation with this storm in Vermont will be a heavy, wet snow, so power lines are still likely to snap under the weight of the snow. If the current forecasts hold. Some of the warmer valleys could see rain Tuesday afternoon as temperatures get up into the mid-30s. 

Whoever gets the heavy snow will see most of it from late Monday night through Tuesday. 

The forecast map issued by the National Weather Service in South Burlington goes from Monday afternoon through 8 p.m. Tuesday. 

This map will absolutely surely change as we get closer to the storm. But for now, the map depicts a modest three to six inches of new snow along and north of Route 2. Some places right near the Canadian border would see as little as two inches.

Central Vermont would get a solid 6 to 12 inches of snow. Far southern Vermont would go over a foot, with local 18 inches in the southern Green Mountains. 

Note that some additional snow not depicted in the map would fall after 8 p.m. Tuesday. Snow should continue well into Wednesday, but it will be tapering off as we go along. 

Other spots that at least for now seem to be on target for getting blasted by at least a foot of snow are the far southern Adirondacks, Catskills, southwestern New Hampshire, the Berkshires of  Massachusetts and the far northwestern corner of Connecticut. 

Even if you don't like big dumps of snow, you can cheer up a little. It won't be particularly warm after this storm. But the strong March sun will start to eat away at the new snow almost immediately after the storm ends. 

As noted, expect big changes in the forecast for this storm, which I will happily update you on tomorrow and Monday. 

Another, weaker storm looks due on Friday. That one, at least for now, looks like it would produce mostly light rain, and not a whole lot of snow, 

Don't worry. Spring is coming. But for the rest for March, it looks like spring wants to come at us only grudgingly.