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| Updated snow prediction map this morning from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington has increased expected snow totals by an inch or two since yesterday. All of Vermont is now unde a winter storm warning. |
As it stands now, the storm looks like it will have a bit more oomph than a lot of forecasters were thinking Thursday. Here are some of the changes/updates:
SNOW AMOUNTS
First of all, the amount of precipitation has been bumped up slightly. So now, all of Vermont is under a winter storm warning.
When we went to bed last night, the far northern parts of Vermont were under a less dire winter weather advisory. That's because those areas were expected a little under six inches of new snow. Now, those far northern areas have been bumped up above six inches expected from this storm, so the winter storm warning now goes to the Canadian border.
The latest forecast still has less snow in the far north than it does in central and southern Vermont. However, some guidance brings the heaviest snow all the way to extreme southern Quebec. So there is a chance, but just a chance, that the north might over-perform a bit. No guarantees though.
Overall, the forecasts issued early this morning by the National Weather Service office in South Burlington bumped most of us by an inch or two with this storm. That means a general 6 to 12 inches in the northern half of Vermont and 8 to 14 south. Low elevations in southwestern Vermont might only see six to eight inches out of this.
In far southern Vermont, there's a good chance a bunch of sleet will mix in with the snow. That'll keep total accumulations down, but make whatever does pile up really dense and heavy.
On the bright side, little if any freezing rain will mix in, at least as it looks now. That'll prevent ice from weighing down trees and power lines, as sleet tends to bounce off surfaces like that instead of freezing to them.
One caveat to what you just read and are about to read. Not every forecast I saw this morning is this bullish on the storm. A few forecasts - not the majority of them - are hinting at a little less snow than this. I'm in the National Weather Service's camp with this, though, so that's where we're going.
GROUND ZERO
The places that get the biggest slap from this storm are the southern and central Green Mountains. Those areas should mostly see a foot or more, and some areas in this hilly terrain could see some near -blizzard conditions Saturday morning.
On the east side of the mountains, wet winds coming off the Atlantic Ocean will be forced up the slopes. That set up almost always wrings out extra snowfall in this type of storm. High spots on the summits and east slopes of the Greens from Mount Snow to perhaps as far north as Sugarbush will probably see at least 14 inches of new snow.
I wouldn't be surprised if a couple places pick up a foot and a half of snow out of this.
The western slopes will have somewhat less snow out of this, as those southeast winds will flow down those slopes, cutting down on accumulation. But winds will be stronger, gusting to 35 to 40 mph, and locally a little more. That will cause a lot of blowing and drifting. At this point, it looks like the worst of the snow and wind will probably be in the eastern half of Rutland county, and parts of eastern Bennington County.
However, winds could get a little gusty just about everywhere during this storm, so you'll need to consider the blowing snow pretty much everywhere.
TIMING
You'll notice clouds thicken and lower today, especially this afternoon. But we really don't have to worry about snow until later tonight.
It could start in Bennington County as early as 9 p.m., then spread to at least along Interstate 89 by around midnight. The snow will continue to push into the northeast corner of the state by 3 a.m.
The heaviest snow will probably come down between midnight tonight and 10 a.m. or so Saturday. Many of us will see snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour, along with that blowing snow in many areas
I'd stay off the roads Saturday morning especially, as even Vermont's excellent state road crews won't be able to keep up with that. The snow will lighten up during the day. However, light snow should continue well into Saturday evening, especially in the northern half of the state, and maybe up in the southern Green Mountains.
WHAT TO DO
As mentioned, roads should be atrocious for most of Vermont Saturday, especially in the morning. Even though the snow will be somewhat powdery overnight and Saturday morning, it will have a relatively dense quality to it.
That, combined with the strong winds in some places, will result in a few power outages. The outages seem most likely in the Green Mountains from about Ripton south to the Massachusetts border. I don't think the problems will be all that widespread, but it could be at least a scattered issue.
Even though the snow won't come down nearly as heavily Saturday afternoon, low elevation spots should get into the low 30s, so that snow will be a little wet and heavy. Be careful shoveling! Or get a healthy teenager to do it for you.
BEYOND SATURDAY
Northern areas will continue to have light snow showers Saturday night, but those should mostly retreat into the mountains Sunday.
Sunday will be an excellent day to either clear snow or go play in it. The sun will peek through the clouds occasionally, and a few snow flakes might grace the sky from time to time.
In the valleys, temperatures should warm into the 30s in the afternoon. It is March, after all. So once you shovel the snow off off driveways and sidewalks, any remaining ice should tend to melt away.
The upcoming week in Vermont looks pretty uneventful, at least in terms of weather. It'll be kind of cloudy, with frequent chances of snow showers, mixed with a few rain drops in the valleys.
Town Meeting Day could have some slightly steadier snow and/or rain, but it still won't amount to all that much, at least as it looks from here.
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