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| Forecasters Sunday afternoon backed off somewhat on expected accumulations of snow in Vermont from the upcoming storm. Southern Vermont should still get a big thump of snow. Far northern Vermont might escape major drama. |
We had great sunshine until late afternoon, light winds, and temperatures that got warmer than expected - in the mid 40s. This was the mildest day since mid-February.
The kind of weather we got today will become more common as we head through spring. Any day with dry air, sunshine and light winds will feel great, and often be warmer than a lot of forecasts. Spring is coming!
But not right now.
We're still dealing with the prospect of that giant storm heading toward New England Tuesday.
THE LATEST FORECAST
The computer models are still at this late date disagreeing on the exact position of this weird, strong storm, even though its just 36 to 48 hours away.
The general idea is that the storm will begin to form tomorrow off the North Carolina coast. Then it will at first appear to begin to head out to sea, then loop back northwestward into the southeast corner of New England. Or at least near it.
How far to the northwest this storm gets before as it lingers near or off the New England coast Tuesday will determine where it snows harder and who gets the most snow.
People in southern Vermont, especially south of Route 4 and in the mountains, are still screwed. However, at least for now, expected accumulations have been cut back.
A lot of forecasts this morning called for at least a 18 inches of snow in most of Bennington and Windham counties. That's been cut back to about a foot. It's still going to be a wet and heavy snow, so power outage trouble is still inevitable.
The super heavy stuff, closing in on two feet, now looks like it will focus on the Catskills of New York and possibly the Berkshires of western Massachusetts.
Between Route 4 and Route 2, the new forecasts call for 4 to 10 inches of snow. The least will be closest to Route 2 in the lower elevations, the most closer to Route 4 in the high spots. This is still enough to cause some electricity trouble.
An exception to this would be the Champlain Valley, which could get as little as two or four inches of snow, even south of Route 2.
North of Route 2, unless there's a big surprise, we can breathe a sigh of relief, at least if forecasts issued late Sunday afternoon hold up and if you don't like big March snowstorms.
Between Route 2 and the Canadian border, it look like just one to four inches of slushy slop will accumulate between Tuesday and Wednesday.
This is just my opinion, but I was enjoying today's relatively springlike weather. I still have too much snow on the ground to get any meaningful work done in my yard. The fact that I might see as little as 1.5 to 2 inches of new snow thrills me. It won't be that much of a setback. The prospect of getting stuff done outdoors draws nearer. I hope?
No matter where you are in Vermont, this will be a storm that depends a lot on elevation. Valley floors will be warmer. In valleys of central and northern Vermont, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, the snow will fall lightly enough for some solar energy to sneak through the clouds. Some of the snow will melt as it hits.
That's part of the reason why we don't expect huge snow accumulations north.
Of course, even in the north, Tuesday and Wednesday won't exactly be nice days. It'll be a little colder than normal, it will snow and gusty north winds will make it feel like mid-winter.
Wednesday will be a transition day, as the storm slowly moves eastward away from New England. Any lingering snow should gradually taper off. Winds will diminish Wednesday night.
AFTER THE STORM
We're getting into mid-March now, so even big snowstorms usually begin to melt right away. This will be no exception. Especially in the valleys.
This being March, for most of us, any snow that falls will start to melt pretty quickly. Temperatures at low elevations should rebound to the low 40s on Thursday in low and possibly mid elevations, so that will begin the process of clearing the storm.
A new system looks like it wants to bother us Friday into Saturday. It will be much smaller than the giant, lumbering storm we have to deal with Tuesday and Wednesday. Also, the early weekend storm should be mostly a cold rain. The highest peaks could get a few inches of snow out of this, but most of us should escape most of the wintry crap.
The rain Friday and Friday night won't come down hard, so flooding isn't a worry. But it will erode some of the snow cover. That's inevitable. We're heading into spring now.
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