Thursday, March 30, 2023

Wow! Here's A Switch! First Warmer/Drier Than Normal Forecast in California In Many Weeks

Funny how a routine long range forecast can blow a weather geek of their seat.

Here's something not seen in months: Drier than 
normal weather is forecast in California 8 to14
days from now after an incredibly stormy winter. 
Today, I took a gander at the daily updated eight to 14 day United States weather outlook from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. 

This forecast, covering April 7 to 13 is starting lean toward above normal temperatures in northern California and near normal reading in the southern half of the state. This April 7-13 period also has the state in drier than normal conditions.

This is the first time in many, many weeks in which the West Coast forecast did not call for well below normal temperatures and well above normal rain and snowfall. 

This news, welcome by many no doubt, comes after another cold storm dumped another one to two feet of snow on many of California's snow-crushed higher elevations. 

The latest storm brings the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada to the deepest and wettest since at least before 1983, and is probably in the top 5 list dating to the 1950s.  

The snowpack in Utah's mountains has also reached a record high. The snow measuring equipment at the top of Little Cottonwood Canyon in Utah is actually buried. There's 13.5 feet of snow on the ground at this site. 

The eight to 14 day forecast in Utah calls for greater than equal chances of cooler and drier than normal conditions. 

One caveat to note is the eight to 14 day forecasts aren't alway right. A lot can happen in the atmosphere over the course of a week to make the prediction wrong. 

The 8 to 14 day forecast also leans slightly
toward warmer than average conditions in California

A little bit of warm, dry weather in California is no problem, as the snow gradually begins to melt.  They'll have to watch out for sustained very warm to hot weather that could occur later in April and May which could melt the snow too fast, resulting in flooding. 

For what it's worth, the six to 10 day outlook for Vermont calls for a welcome spate of warmer than normal temperatures with possibly somewhat above normal precipitation. 

The eight to 14 day forecast for Vermont calls for near normal temperatures and rainfall.

Normal temperatures in the April 7-13 time frame in Vermont feature highs of around 50 degrees and lows near the freezing point. 

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