Enjoy The Break In Vermont Humidity Siege: It Won't Last

Flowers in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens enjoying some
sunshine and somewhat cooler breezes than they've
had to endure most of this month. 

 I hope you're enjoying the break in the siege of humidity and heat Vermont has been under this summer as much as I have.   

You have something like three more days to embrace the dry weather before the humidity, showers, downpours and generally icky stickiness and stuffy nights come back. 

WARM STREAK RECORDS

The low temperature Thursday was 64 degrees in Burlington. Still on the warm side. But it ended a record breaking streak of 14 consecutive days with low temperatures above 64 degrees.  The old record was 13 back in 1988.

High humidity tends to keep nighttime temperatures up.  Unlike most summers, we had absolutely no breaks in the muggy weather for more than two weeks. Until Thursday. 

The lack of cool nights and wind really allowed Lake Champlain to heat up to near tropical levels. The water temperature has been as high as 80 degrees down to a depth of nine feet, which I've certainly never seen before.  

The warm Lake Champlain is actually bad news. Between the warmth of the water and the contaminants being swept into the lake by this month's flooding, that sets the stage for algae blooms. Cooler nights and breezes this weekend will help stir the water up a bit, so it is cooling down, at least temporarily. 

It got even cooler Friday morning, dipping to 59 in Burlington, the first time under 60 degrees since July 2.  

Flowers in my St. Albans, Vermont yard enjoy some
sunshine and dry air to keep the fungus at bay
for a change Friday evening. 

Today will mark Burlington's 19th consecutive day making it to at least 80 degrees. But we won't break the record for longest such streak.  That record is 25 days from July 22 through August 15, 1988.

After a warm but not humid sunny day today in the low to even mid-80s in spots today, a reinforcing shot of cool air is coming down from Quebec tonight. 

That means it's doubtful Burlington or practically anywhere else in Vermont will make it higher than the 70s Sunday afternoon.

Not that anybody's complaining.

Monday morning will be the coolest in this drier break, as most of us will be in the 50s, with 40s in the cooler hollows. Monday afternoon at this point is looking warm but dry - in the low 80s.  Then it's over, Again.

HUMIDITY SIEGE RETURNS 

The forces of summer evil - namely, the Bermuda High - are showing signs of another attack. That Bermuda High - the offshore heat pump responsible for summer hot spells, will be strengthening and moving westward over the next few days. 

The weak cold front that will come through early Sunday morning with just sprinkles of rain in a  few spots will stall to our south. Then that Bermuda High will push the front back north as a warm front Tuesday. 

The south flow will feed moisture into that front, so instead of sprinkles, it'll produce showers, some locally heavy as it comes back at us and stalls probably just to our north. 

Hydrangea flowers glow in evening light during a 
welcome dry spell Friday evening in St. Albans, Vermont. 

So it'll be back to the routine. Muggy nights, warm, sticky days, the ever-present risk of downpours, even a renewed (ugh!) chance of local flash flooding.  We'll have to deal with that again. 

As it looks now, Tuesday through Thursday and probably Friday gives us a daily chance of showers, storms and heavy downpours.  It definitely won't rain all the time. We'll have to look each morning during the week for updates on when/where it might rain the most.

We'll be back to each night staying in the muggy 60s. High temperatures in the upcoming week will be held down a little by clouds - highs should be in the sticky low 80s.

Toward next weekend, there are signs that we'll see less rain, but that would come in the form of another heat wave.  Things could change, but we could be looking at more 90 degree weather in about a week, with of course lots of humidity. 

I did say a few days ago that a northwest flow might keep hot temperatures mostly at bay for the rest of the month.  So much for that idea. That's a classic example of why one shouldn't rely on long range forecasts.

For what it's worth, some (but not all!) updated long range forecasts do continue to show the chance of some occasional cold fronts and bits of cooler, drier air coming in from the northwest into August

But there's also spells of warm or hot, humid weather thrown in between these cold fronts. The specifics and frequency of any cold fronts will undoubtably change as forecasts are updated. 

If you think Julys have been hot in recent years, you are correct.  This July is on pace to be one of the top five hottest in Burlington. If that happens, then each of the top five hottest Julys will have happened since 2018.

 

A Welcome Break From U.S. Tornado Risks Before We Gird For Peak Season

This is definitely NOT a tornado, but this storm over
Lake Champlain sort of resembles one, and a tornado
did touch down in Benson, Vermont that day. The
nation is taking a few day break from tornadoes
but they should return within  week. Vermont
hasn't had one yet this year
and definitely won't any time soon. 

 Storm systems in the middle of the nation this week have spun off scores of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms, as is typical of April.  

Typical, but still dangerous and destructive. 

It was a relatively busy week for tornadoes, with at least 38 reported so far this week. This number could well increase as National Weather Service meteorologists inspect storm damage to determine whether a tornado or straight line winds were responsible. 

Starting today, we probably have a few days off from tornadoes in the U.S.

A weird quirk in this year's tornado stats so far is as of mid-April Ohio has had the most tornadoes of any state, with 35.  That doesn't include any that might have touched down in Ohio Wednesday.

The first part of the tornado season is usually focused on the South. Places like Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama or Tennessee usually have the most tornadoes through mid-April. Florida has had the second most so far with 34, and Illinois, also somewhat oddly north for early tornadoes has had 30 of them. 

Tornadoes struck Wisconsin, Michigan and New York during February, which is extremely odd for such northern states so early in the season 

Even in the most extreme tornado years, like tragic 2011, there are breaks of a few days in which there are no tornadoes during the peak season for these storms, which usually encompasses April, May and much of June. 

We're about to head into one of those periods, so people in places like Illinois and Ohio can relax. For a little while.

A wide dip in the jet stream centered in southeastern Canada for the next few days will create a flow of air from the northwest from the Plains to the East Coast. 

 This wide area is the zone in which tornadoes often form in the spring. But those northwest winds are dry, and block moisture from invading from the Gulf of Mexico. 

Warm, muggy air is a key ingredient for tornadoes. Without that, you have a hard time seeing a spinup.

So far, I'd rate this young tornado season relatively busy, but we're certainly not at a record pace. As of this morning, there had been 327 reported tornadoes, maybe a bit fewer than average, but definitely not at a record slow pace. 

Both in 2023 and the year before, there had been about 550 tornadoes in the U.S.  But in 2020, there had only been 254 twisters by April 17, according to data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.  

The problem is the biggest number of tornadoes, and the deadliest ones more often than not hit in late April and May.  This break it tornadoes will be short-lived, as those breaks often are in April. 

 By next Thursday,  the dip in the jet stream over southeastern Canada will have pushed a little more to the east. That will increase the potential for south winds over the Plains and Midwest. That wind will bring back warmth and humidity. 

Once that steamy air starts to interact with any storm systems coming in from the west, the threat of tornadoes will blossom again. Computer models hint at some sort of storm forming in or near the central Plains by the end of next week. The tornadoes will be back. 

 

Wow! Here's A Switch! First Warmer/Drier Than Normal Forecast in California In Many Weeks

Funny how a routine long range forecast can blow a weather geek of their seat.

Here's something not seen in months: Drier than 
normal weather is forecast in California 8 to14
days from now after an incredibly stormy winter. 

Today, I took a gander at the daily updated eight to 14 day United States weather outlook from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. 

This forecast, covering April 7 to 13 is starting lean toward above normal temperatures in northern California and near normal reading in the southern half of the state. This April 7-13 period also has the state in drier than normal conditions.

This is the first time in many, many weeks in which the West Coast forecast did not call for well below normal temperatures and well above normal rain and snowfall. 

This news, welcome by many no doubt, comes after another cold storm dumped another one to two feet of snow on many of California's snow-crushed higher elevations. 

The latest storm brings the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada to the deepest and wettest since at least before 1983, and is probably in the top 5 list dating to the 1950s.  

The snowpack in Utah's mountains has also reached a record high. The snow measuring equipment at the top of Little Cottonwood Canyon in Utah is actually buried. There's 13.5 feet of snow on the ground at this site. 

The eight to 14 day forecast in Utah calls for greater than equal chances of cooler and drier than normal conditions. 

One caveat to note is the eight to 14 day forecasts aren't alway right. A lot can happen in the atmosphere over the course of a week to make the prediction wrong. 

The 8 to 14 day forecast also leans slightly
toward warmer than average conditions in California

A little bit of warm, dry weather in California is no problem, as the snow gradually begins to melt.  They'll have to watch out for sustained very warm to hot weather that could occur later in April and May which could melt the snow too fast, resulting in flooding. 

For what it's worth, the six to 10 day outlook for Vermont calls for a welcome spate of warmer than normal temperatures with possibly somewhat above normal precipitation. 

The eight to 14 day forecast for Vermont calls for near normal temperatures and rainfall.

Normal temperatures in the April 7-13 time frame in Vermont feature highs of around 50 degrees and lows near the freezing point. 

Hurricanes Around The World Took A Strange, Long Pause In October/November

This map looks like spaghetti thrown against a wall, but it
a map of all the Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes 
this year. It was the 6th busy season in a row.

 For some reason, the world temporarily stopped seeing hurricanes for more than a month.  That, my friends, is rather strange. 

As the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang reported last week:

"It's not just the Atlantic that's been eerily quiet. All across the world, the tropics have been devoid of significant cyclone activity. Not a single hurricane-strength storm has formed anywhere on the planet since October 29, a calm occupying the Northern and Southern hemispheres. That's happened only twice before since 1966, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University."

The other two years were 1973 and 2012.

The tropical weather drought finally ended a couple days ago with the formation of a typhoon in the western Pacific Ocean.  This typhoon is expected to pass east of the Philippines this week, then dissipate.  

Whether they're called hurricanes, typhoons, cyclones or whatever, they are all the same thing. A strong storm, born in the tropics, with a warm core, no warm or cold fronts and lots of destructive potential with top sustained winds of 74 mph or greater. 

Maybe even more strangely, there has not been a strong hurricane in the world since September 25. A strong hurricane, or cyclone, or typhoon, whatever you want to call it, is a Category 3 on a scale of one to five, with top winds of at least 111 mph.

Up until early October, the Atlantic Ocean hurricanes season was a messy and destructive powerhouse. It was one of the busiest seasons on record. It was also, remarkably, the sixth consecutive Atlantic hurricane season with well above normal activity.

The list of potential hurricane names was exhausted. Tropical storm Wanda did manage to form in the Atlantic in early November, and Wanda was the last name on the list. Its winds stayed under 74 mph, so it the world's hurricane-free streak contineud.  Wanda, by the way, was the first known tropical storm to form from what had been a destructive New England nor'easter, as Jeff Masters notes in Yale Climate Connections.

While we're talking about New England, Masters has this bit of weird 2021 tropical storm trivia. 

Back around August 11, a strong non tropical storm system caused a line of severe, destructive thunderstorms in Michigan and the Mid-Atlantic States, causing an estimated $1.1 billion in damage. The storm moved off the coast, turned into a tropical storm and then eventually made landfall as a tropical storm in Westerly, Rhode Island. This whole scenario was a first, too! 

The Atlantic tropical season officially ended on Tuesday.  However, there is a very low, but not zero chance of tropical development in the Atlantic during December. It's happened before.   This year, the Atlantic, after being super busy, just gave up the ghost in October.

Generally speaking, when the Atlantic hurricane season is busy, the northern half of the Pacific Ocean tends to be quiet, 

As the Washington Post explains it, we're in an La Nina pattern, which favors cool waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. That helps create lighter upper level winds in the Atlantic Ocean. If upper level winds are lighter, nascent tropical storms have a better chance of forming. So it's no surprise most of the Atlantic season was busy this year. 

And also not a big surprise that the western Pacific Ocean was relatively quiet in 2021. 

At the same time La Nina tends to increase upper level winds in the Pacific, which helps explain why hurricanes and typhoons were relatively hard to come by there. 

The mystery is why the Atlantic hurricane season mercifully collapsed in October. Often, the Caribbean Sea gives birth to tropical systems in October and November, but this year it did not. Perhaps there was too much sinking air that prevented thunderstorms from developing. Tropical storms there can develop from these clusters of storms.  

I wouldn't make too much of this collapse in tropical storm activity, which seems to be ending now. There doesn't seem to be any good conclusions as to whether climate change will increase the global supply of hurricanes. 

Climate change is probably making some of them stronger, or making some tropical storms form in weird places or weird times.  But the world will always have busy hurricane episodes, and quiet ones, too. Raise a glass to the quiet times, right?